WARNING...comprehensive analysis of Saniya Chong's pro prospects below in a very long-winded post.
As an FYI, "long-winded post" means "completely typical CamrnCrz1974 post."
Obviously, Saniya had a great game last night and will depart UConn with the best record of any player in the history of the program. But in terms of the WNBA, however, I do not see it.
This year, she is averaging 6.5 points per game on very, very good shooting. For her career, she is averaging 4.9 ppg, 45.7 percent from the floor, 36.2 percent from three, and 77.3 percent from the line.
For someone who came into college with the reputation as a scorer, she has adapted really, really well to playing when the ball is not in her hands and being able to be a very solid roleplayer playing with elite talent. But she does not have a singular WNBA skill.
Now, some of you will remind me of Kiah Stokes' ppg averages. But Kiah also had ELITE per-minute rebounding averages (which, as Kevin Pelton and the ESPN NBA draft analysts will tell you, is a skill that almost always translates to the professional ranks) and was an exceptional shotblocker (single season UConn record). For her senior year, Stokes averaged nearly 7 rebounds and 3.77 blocks per game while playing only 18 minutes per contest; her per-36 minute averages are simply staggering/jawdropping/running out of descriptive terms.
While Stokes is only 6-3 (on the short end of WNBA centers), she has a very muscular frame and a very good center of gravity, which allows her to be physical with defenders who are bigger than she is.
The other issue with Chong is the fact that she is only 5-8. At that height in the WNBA, she will either have to be paired with a taller point guard (so she could be a shooting guard on offense and defend the shorter guards on defense) or move to the point in the WNBA. Now, I have always argued that point guard is not just a position, but a mentality. You need to be a great playmaker, for yourself and others, while balancing and knowing when to shoot, when to initiate, when to pass, how to handle the clock, etc.
Chong has a very nice A/TO for her career, at 2.09/1. But she has only averaged 1.71 assists per game for her career, despite playing with elite talent. Her per-minute averages help; for her career, per 36 minutes, she averages just under 3.5 assists per game. But those are not the assist number of a first round draft pick expected to be a playmaker.
Defensively, Chong had the benefit of playing with two exceptional perimeter defenders at UConn. In the pros, she will have to adjust to players who are bigger, stronger, and quicker than she is - and being defended by them. Put it this way...Chong will have to go to playing with Moriah Jefferson to having to defend and be defended by Moriah Jefferson.
Now, I am not saying she cannot succeed or have a very nice career. There are a number UConn players who were not taken in the first round, but have had/are continuing to have long and/or highly successful careers WNBA careers - Ashley Battle, Jessica Moore, Charde Houston, Tiffany Hayes, etc.
I am reminded of Kelly Faris (not in terms of playing style, but in terms of pro prospect profile) when analyzing Chong. Faris was, arguably, one of the best hustle/effort players in the history of UConn. She was not naturally athletic, but she was incredibly crafty and relentless and was a very versatile defender at 5-11, being able to guard quick perimter players and bigger frontcourt players. Kelly did not have a singular WNBA skill, other than her heart/hustle, which she parlayed (along with a statistical breakout scoring year as a senior) into becoming a first round draft pick.
But in four years, Faris has appeared in 112 games and averaged 11.7 minutes per game...to only score 2.1 points per game, shooting 36.1 percent from the floor and 28.1 percent from three. Those are not numbers worthy of a first round draft pick. And given her minutes and playing for multiple coaches, she has had her opportunities.
NONE of this takes away from Faris' wonderful college career. And it will not take away from Chong's college career.
But in terms of a first round draft pick, I just do not see it.
