McDonalds All Americans

[noirwestern]

I've come to be pretty dismissive of the McD moniker. A lot fall short. Of course coaching plays a major part. What we do know is that it is a relative few who come out of HS/AAU ball really understanding the game.

It does seem to say a lot more about us and our desire to rank things and assign 'value' than the actual kids involved. I mean, at that age who is thinking of basketball as anything more than just a game, right?

 

[RegisteredUconn]

Nice work. Thanks.

So what does this tell us about the value of an All American? I'll use the AP poll as a proxy for value. The latest poll lists 39 schools getting votes. The values set range from 825 (UConn) down to 1 (three-way tie between Michigan State, Vanderbilt, and UNLV). Of those 39 schools, 23 have one or more AAs and 16 have none.

A logical method of comparison would be to divide the points a team garners by the number of AAs on the roster. The problem is immediately apparent. For schools with no AAs the divisor would be zero and everybody knows that's a "no-no." Let's forge ahead anyway and see what happens.

Beginning with the 23 schools that received votes and had AA(s), we can see that Florida State leads that pack with 208 pts/AA (625 points, 3 AAs). A close second is UConn at 206 pts/AA (825 points, 4 AAs). A complete list is as follows:
Florida State 208
Connecticut 206
Oklahoma 187
South Carolina 164
Washington 163
Syracuse 162
UCLA 141
Stanford 130
Baylor 127
Maryland 124
Louisville 96
Notre Dame 96
Ohio State 85
Oregon 75
Kentucky 63
Texas 45
Duke 31
Florida 23
California 15
Northwestern 10
Southern California 5
Michigan State 1
Vanderbilt 1

Next, looking at those schools getting votes without an AA, certainly any such school garnering more than 208 points should be considered above the schools in the above list. Leading that parade is Mississippi State, 676 pts., Miami, 415 pts., West Virginia, 405 pts., Colorado, 286 pts., and DePaul, 225 pts. The full list of schools without an AA gernering points is as follows:
Mississippi State 676
Miami 415
West Virginia 406
Colorado 286
DePaul 225
South Florida 153
Arizona State 137
Virginia Tech 112
Oregon State 68
Greem Bay 49
Kansas State 44
Oklahoma State 15
Texas A&M 9
Auburn 7
Gonzaga 4
UNLV 1

Lastly are the ten schools with AA(s) but without points in the poll. Leading that futility is Tennessee with 6 AAs followed by North Carolina and Penn State with 2 each. Also included are Arkansas, Georgia, Harvard, Kansas, Loyola Marymount, Missouri and Rutgers with 1 each.

There are 49 schools evaluated. 23 have both AAs and points in the poll. 16 have points in the poll but no AAs. 10 have AAs but no points. Team poll values range from 1 to 825. Team All Americans range from 0 to 8. The correlation coefficient between the number of All Americans and total points for those 49 schools is slightly less than .6. Modest at best. Certainly not of statistical significance. Simply put, there's a whole lot more to basketball success than recruiting All Americans.

 

[CocoHusky]

Nice work @RegisteredUconn.
I would sum up your post this way!

So what does this tell us about the value of an All American?
Leading that futility is Tennessee with 6 AAs.

 

[UcMiami]

Just a word of caution in reading too much into Registered serious work above - have a single great player on a team isn't a formula for a great team - EDD at Delaware was not going to get them ranked of example, so there is a certain density of good players that a team needs - having one AA is not going to change a program. I would thing 2 is a little light as well, 3 begins to get some synergy, and four gives you a starting line-up.
The other thing is players tend to impact programs more as they get older - Napheesa and Lou were not essential for last year to be successful, as freshman they provide help, but a good pair of non-AAs likely would have been enough. This year is a different story. So having a senior AA vs. a freshman AA is more valuable on the whole. If one of the teams above with three AA players got two of them this year and one last year, it may not have much impact this year, but could have much more in the next two year.

 

[meyers7]

Nurse was #33 ranked player in her class. She would not have been McDonalds AA.

ASGR had her at #14, Bluestar had her at #10. She'd probably have been a McD's.

 

[RegisteredUconn]

Just a word of caution in reading too much into Registered serious work above - have a single great player on a team isn't a formula for a great team - EDD at Delaware was not going to get them ranked of example, so there is a certain density of good players that a team needs - having one AA is not going to change a program. I would thing 2 is a little light as well, 3 begins to get some synergy, and four gives you a starting line-up.
The other thing is players tend to impact programs more as they get older - Napheesa and Lou were not essential for last year to be successful, as freshman they provide help, but a good pair of non-AAs likely would have been enough. This year is a different story. So having a senior AA vs. a freshman AA is more valuable on the whole. If one of the teams above with three AA players got two of them this year and one last year, it may not have much impact this year, but could have much more in the next two year.

Just the single word of caution? You're being too generous. I did consider much of what you wrote but even my eyes were beginning to glaze over at the length of my own post. So I decided to focus on trying to quantify the value of an AA. The one thing the OP showed was that UConn's success isn't simply the result of stacking Mickey D's All Americans in the bowels of Gampel like so much cord wood.

 

[CBear01]

Just a word of caution in reading too much into Registered serious work above - have a single great player on a team isn't a formula for a great team - EDD at Delaware was not going to get them ranked of example, so there is a certain density of good players that a team needs - having one AA is not going to change a program. I would thing 2 is a little light as well, 3 begins to get some synergy, and four gives you a starting line-up.
The other thing is players tend to impact programs more as they get older - Napheesa and Lou were not essential for last year to be successful, as freshman they provide help, but a good pair of non-AAs likely would have been enough. This year is a different story. So having a senior AA vs. a freshman AA is more valuable on the whole. If one of the teams above with three AA players got two of them this year and one last year, it may not have much impact this year, but could have much more in the next two year.

I don't normally ever disagree with you but I have to on your EDD example...

"Delaware’s success earned the team national recognition as the Blue Hens cracked the national polls for the first time in school history. After coming in at No. 24 in the Associated Press Top 25 poll on Nov. 28, Delaware found its way onto the USA Today Poll at No. 25 just one week later.

The Hens, who moved up to as high as No. 7 in the AP poll and No. 8 in the USA Today Poll, also finished a perfect 14-0 run on their home court and set school records for wins in a season (31) and consecutive wins (21).

Leading the way for Delaware this season was junior Elena Delle Donne, who led the nation in scoring with 28.1 points per game, and has been a consensus first team All-American this season"

They finished #14 in the final poll that year (2012)

http://m.bluehens.com/mobile/ViewArticle.dbml?atclid=209351393&DB_OEM_ID=29100&

 

[MilfordHusky]

I don't normally ever disagree with you but I have to on your EDD example...

"Delaware’s success earned the team national recognition as the Blue Hens cracked the national polls for the first time in school history. After coming in at No. 24 in the Associated Press Top 25 poll on Nov. 28, Delaware found its way onto the USA Today Poll at No. 25 just one week later.

The Hens, who moved up to as high as No. 7 in the AP poll and No. 8 in the USA Today Poll, also finished a perfect 14-0 run on their home court and set school records for wins in a season (31) and consecutive wins (21).

Leading the way for Delaware this season was junior Elena Delle Donne, who led the nation in scoring with 28.1 points per game, and has been a consensus first team All-American this season"

They finished #14 in the final poll that year (2012)

Women's Basketball - Mobile - BlueHens.com - UD Athletics

I rarely disagree with Miami, but I did too on that point. One very good McD's AA can get a team ranked. Kelsey Plum may be the only HS AA on Washington. EDD was certainly good enough to get UDel ranked. But getting ranked is a far cry from being a NC contender. If you have 4 AAs who play different positions, and 1-2 of them are NPOY contenders, you have a chance at an undefeated season.