Marinatto: method to his madness, or madness to his method?...

[06029]

Question, do you think the ACC is going to get more than a modest increase from ESPN for the duration of their current contract?

Define modest? Current ACC contract is $155 million per reports or $12.9 per team. If there is a 10% increase per team that is about $14mm per team per year. If it is 20% it is north of $15 mm and would put it near some of the recent contracts.

Do the math - To leave the ACC at the alter would cost $20mm (the ACC exit fee). The annual revenue from the ACC will be at least $14mm per year. To make up that $20mm exit fee and to merely break even on revenue would need to be in the $16 mm per year range from the BE. That would be a 45% increase over the reported contract the BE already rejected from ESPN. And the BE will still have some of the same problems that caused Cuse and Pitt to leave in the first place. Chief among them is the inherent instability should the conference be raided by the Big 12 or anyone else. Looking at the list of expansion candidates probably did not leave them feeling too good either. So if you are Pitt and Cuse, you need to be getting way more than a breakeven pickup in revenue to stay in the BE. If I am Cuse or Pitt, I would need at least a 25% to 35% premium over breakeven (which is what they are getting in the move to the ACC) or annual revenue in $20mm range. That is SEC and Big10 revenue.

The BE is not getting a contract that pays $16mm per school for the FB/BB members, let alone the kind of numbers that would entice them back. Not with Cuse and Pitt as members and not with the any of the expansion candidates that have been listed. But that is just my opinion. Others have different opinions.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I think the stability and not having to fight the basketball schools who have their own agenda in order to make decisions for the football conference are probably even more important than the money in the short term. Long term the ACC is more stable even if they could have made more in the BE after the next contract.

We need to stop this fallacy. Syracuse was one of the biggest supporters of the basketball schools in the league, and Pitt and Syracuse could have gotten to football schools to split any time they wanted. WVU and Rutgers were ready to go, and USF, Cincinnati and UConn would have probably gone along if anyone felt that strongly about it. No one was fighting the basketball schools.

Syracuse and Pitt left because of the other football schools. They didn't want to be in a league with UConn, Rutgers and the rest. Not clear if the reason was financial or they just didn't trust us, but they wanted out because of us, not because of Marinatto or the hoops schools.

 

[HartbeatHusky]

The BE is not getting a contract that pays $16mm per school for the FB/BB members, let alone the kind of numbers that would entice them back. Not with Cuse and Pitt as members and not with the any of the expansion candidates that have been listed. But that is just my opinion. Others have different opinions.

Exactly. Many here think the BE could have done better than $16m per school for all sports members and many do not. The ESPN offer was a first offer and there was no bidding by other parties so in my opinion to think that is the best we could have done doesn't make a whole lot of sense though. I think they could have done better and maybe a number will be out there next fall to validate one opinion or the other.

 

[businesslawyer]

We need to stop this fallacy. Syracuse was one of the biggest supporters of the basketball schools in the league, and Pitt and Syracuse could have gotten to football schools to split any time they wanted. WVU and Rutgers were ready to go, and USF, Cincinnati and UConn would have probably gone along if anyone felt that strongly about it. No one was fighting the basketball schools.

Syracuse and Pitt left because of the other football schools. They didn't want to be in a league with UConn, Rutgers and the rest. Not clear if the reason was financial or they just didn't trust us, but they wanted out because of us, not because of Marinatto or the hoops schools.

Yes. Thank you.

 

[businesslawyer]

I think the stability and not having to fight the basketball schools who have their own agenda in order to make decisions for the football conference are probably even more important than the money in the short term. Long term the ACC is more stable even if they could have made more in the BE after the next contract.

Please do not leave off your list that, everything being equal, the departing schools, especially Syracuse as a private schools, wanted to be thought of academically as in a group with the ACC schools, and not the Big East schools. Would that overcome millions a year? Probably not. but everything else being equal, even, it is a real reason.

 

[HistoryMajor]

Not sure why Nelson and BL continuous defend Marinato (sp). I retired awhile ago and now consult. Specifically my job is a sales account manager for strategic accounts. I have a limited number of accounts and it's my job to stay close to them and insure no surprises - either way. IMO, this was (or should be) a major element of Marinato's job description. And if it wasn't in the job description, he should have done this in any case. That didn't happen and we know the result. Assigning blame doesn't solve anything but let's not wrongly assign blame to Susan Herbst and the other Presidents. The blame rests squarely in Providence. All that said, I agree with JJ's column "Big East is a sorry mess".

 

[CTMike]

We need to stop this fallacy. Syracuse was one of the biggest supporters of the basketball schools in the league, and Pitt and Syracuse could have gotten to football schools to split any time they wanted. WVU and Rutgers were ready to go, and USF, Cincinnati and UConn would have probably gone along if anyone felt that strongly about it. No one was fighting the basketball schools.

Syracuse and Pitt left because of the other football schools. They didn't want to be in a league with UConn, Rutgers and the rest. Not clear if the reason was financial or they just didn't trust us, but they wanted out because of us, not because of Marinatto or the hoops schools.

They were offered more money, stability, and arguably, prestige... reason enough to accept their invites. I don't see where UConn or Rutgers fit in to that equation... unless perhaps the prestige aspect?

 

[HartbeatHusky]

Please don't kill the messenger! This was pulled off the Boise State Scout site that has hundreds of users online. Apparently a reporter associated with Houston's Rivals site talked to a TV executive familiar with NBC's desire to get into College Athletics.

If any of this is even remotely true it would explain the BE decision to turn ESPN down and also why the BB schools continue to hang around through all this BS.

It is 16-18 million for football schools plus 6-8 million for basketball schools. For a total of $22-26 million per for an All-sports member.

1) Comcast/NBC has one chance to get into the college game and that is via the Big East. The other conferences are locked in for years already.

2) This new Big East is simply massive. While SEC football is certainly king, outside of Florida, Georgia, and soon to be Texas, the other states simply do not matter. The Big 12's footprint is tiny by comparison. It is all about the money.

3) If you're a marketer, which is more attractive to you; access to New York/New Jersey, Chicago, Philadelphia, DFW, Houston, Boston, Washington DC, Tampa/St Pete, Miami, Denver, Orlando, Pitt, Baltimore, Indianapolis, Hartford/New Haven, Cincinnati, Milwaukee, and Louisville OR DFW, Houston, St Louis, Kansas City, San Antonio, and Oklahoma City? That's the difference in top 50 media markets between the newly configured Big East and the Big 12! Not only is this difference made up by TENS of millions more people living in the Big East footprint, those TENS of millions more people are also likely to have more disposable income than those folks who live in Mississippi, Kansas, Iowa, or Arkansas.

The simple fact of the matter is that the new Big East's footprint is so potentially massive, that even if it just pulls mediocre numbers, that's better than incredibly high numbers in the Midwest, Great Plains, Deep South, Atlantic Coast or Far West.

Population figures for the footprints of the potential new 6 AQ leagues;

138,923,151 BIG EAST
93,555,527 ACC
82,171,692 SEC
68,850,313 Big Ten
61,272,010 Pac Ten
39,685,629 Big 12

Sure, it's a bit of an oversimplification to only look at these figures, but you'd be foolish to ignore them. The difference between the top and bottom is ONE HUNDRED MILLION people!

You have redeemed your sins Friar J in one post. Impressive. If this is true this could change some minds but who knows if it's true and who knows if Cuse and Pitt will give a damn. This would make the BE the richest conference of all. Hard to turn down and actually something I've been trying to say is possible for a while now.

 

[businesslawyer]

And yet Nebraska got an invite to the Big 10 over Rutgers.

Market share is more important than the market size. Or Rutgers would be tops among everyone's wish list for the NYC area, and Notre Dame would be at the bottom because of South Bend.

lf all it was was physical location of markets, the MAC and MAAC would merge and make as much money as anyone else in their college hoops contract. Forgive me for not holding my breath until that happens.

 

[HartbeatHusky]

If al

lf all it was was physical location of markets, the MAC and MAAC would merge and make as much money as anyone else in their college hoops contract. Forgive me for not holding my breath until that happens.

I don't think anyone is saying it's all about markets but also about brands. The Big East is still a viable brand and had it not had any defections and added a few up and coming large market teams it could easily be extremely lucrative, especially for a broadcaster like NBC in dire need of some kind of inroads into college athletics at a national level that will not be up for grabs again until sometime around 2020.

 

[RS9999X]

If the BE was sure to get $20 mil then Pitt and US wouldn't leave.

We saw ESPNs opening salvo. $130 million worked out to at best $12 mil for foootball/basketball assuming $4 mil for BBall and $8 mil for football. If you go by Nate Silvers numbers the loss of Pitt, SU and WVU are a loss of 2.8 million hard core Big Easties and being replaced by 1.75 million fans where markets can be developed. If Football/Basketball still gets $12 million that's $96 mil in football and $72 in BBall. I think that's a complete stretch and we'll see $6 mil for football and $3 for Ball at best or $130 million.

 

[HartbeatHusky]

Not in football it's not a viable brand. It's a laughingstock even when the results on the field say otherwise. That's the problem.

I disagree that it would have been a laughing stock had everything worked out according to plan. aTm to the SEC was the real death blow. If they would have waited until next season to announce it, we would have been fine. I think it would have actually been fine with 10 teams had TCU just actually showed up and Nova was upgraded. I think we'd be looking at over $20m per for the next contract. These are just opinions though and nobody knows for sure, however they are not based in pure fantasy, there are clearly industry folks who think it would have been possible as well.

The fact remains that no matter how unlikely and outcome, NBC or Fox or a combination of the two could save the BE next year if they so choose to do. Throwing insane amounts of money at a problem can make it go away and would be a definite blow for ESPN. Say they offer a combined deal worth $28-$30m per school if the BE stays together, who seriously thinks that anyone would leave for half the money in the ACC or Big 12 if that was the offer?

 

[HartbeatHusky]

I think you're misunderstanding me.

Even if we added ND, the conference would still be called WVU, ND, and the 7 dwarfs.

We have a better BCS bowl game record and (IIRC) better BCS OOC record than the ACC and are still perceived to be weaker, much weaker. No matter how well we've done, and we've had years where we were 2nd/3rd best BCS conference, and people were still arguing the MWC was a comparable conference.

Last year the conference was very weak, the prior few years we were more than worthy of a BCS bid. Unfortunately, people's perceptions are far different from reality.

Right, I don't disagree with the perception part, I completely disagree where you think that means that there is no way we could break the bank with a TV deal if this thing somehow against all odds is held together. That's where we diverge greatly in opinion.

 

[HartbeatHusky]

Define "break the bank".

I don't see any scenario where the Big East gets more than any other BCS conference. And people who have more insight into that (namely the presidents of Cuse/Pitt) showed they agreed with me when they left to join the ACC. I could be wrong, but people with more information are making decisions that greatly support my opinion. I think yours is based more on the hope that NBC/Comcast greatly overpays because we're the last option, rather than actual data that proves we should expect more than ESPN was willing to pay.

I think anything close to or above $20m per all sports school would be breaking the bank for the BE. Cuse and Pitt left because a bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush. I do believe we could be amongst the highest paid BCS leagues and why wouldn't NBC/Comcast overpay to keep the BE together? What other options do they have other than waiting until the 2020's come around?

 

[HartbeatHusky]

There is really no justification for this opinion other than hope.

The other option is to stay with ND until 2020 and wait until there's a competitive bidding process. You're argument seems to be they will willingly overpay, and therefore lose money, just because. I don't think the execs are quite that stupid.

I don't think they would lose money. I think the ratings increase for Versus/NBC Sports would be well worth it for them. So I don't think it would be stupid at all. If I agreed with you that it would not be profitable I'd agree with you about everything else that you have been saying. 2020 or later is a long time to wait for something you really want right now. How are they supposed to get serious about college sports with no college sports content?

 

[HartbeatHusky]

You assume there will be a ratings increase, and you assume that increase will be substantial enough that they willingly overpay for a product.

I think that BE Football and Basketball as opposed to their current programming of nothing anybody watches would generate a huge increase in ratings. If you don't think the increase would be huge compared to what they are now I really don't know what to tell you. Last saturday when everyone else had college football on they had fishing or something.