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Lunardi Has Spoken

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Are there any stats on how Lunardi has fared over the years on his predictions vs. the actual tourney picks? I think UConn is in with one win. What we don't need is any upsets in of the conferences that might sneak an at large team that doesn't win the conference tourney title. It already happened in the MVC where N. Iowa won the conf. tourney and Wichita St. will probably get an at large. UConn fans should be cheering for Valpo, Monmouth and St. Marys to win their conf. tourneys because they might snag at larges even if they lose.
 
QDOG5 said:
Are there any stats on how Lunardi has fared over the years on his predictions vs. the actual tourney picks? I think UConn is in with one win. What we don't need is any upsets in of the conferences that might sneak an at large team that doesn't win the conference tourney title. It already happened in the MVC where N. Iowa won the conf. tourney and Wichita St. will probably get an at large. UConn fans should be cheering for Valpo, Monmouth and St. Marys to win their conf. tourneys because they might snag at larges even if they lose.
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On average he gets about 66/68.
 
4xChamps said:
Agree. Ideal situation would be to be in Providence as a ten with Xavier waiting as the 2 seed. Think we match up well with them.
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Maybe. MSG was great, Worcester and Syracuse did nothing for us. Ideal situation is to get in
 
Looking at Palm and Lunardi this morning....they have some stark differences, namely that Lunardi has Witchia State in as a 7, while Palm has them out completely. That's a huge difference.

You can make so many arguments for and against a lot of these teams. Very hard to differentiate between them all. More so than I can remember.

I am surprised that Temple is not one of the last 4 in at this point. Yes they went 14-4 in the league. But remember they didn't play at SMU, lost to Memphis and East Carolina, and have no, I repeat no quality wins out of the league.
 
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BFieldHusky said:
Looking at Palm and Lunardi this morning....they have some stark differences, namely that Lunardi has Witchia State in as a 7, while Palm has them out completely. That's a huge difference.

You can make so many arguments for and against a lot of these teams. Very hard to differentiate between them all. More so than I can remember.

I am surprised that Temple is not one of the last 4 in at this point. Yes they went 14-4 in the league. But remember they didn't play at SMU, lost to Memphis and East Carolina, and have no, I repeat no quality wins out of the league.
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This is exactly why you want to be nowhere near the bubble. As much as these guys and the committee say there's a criteria for who gets in, there's really not. Lunardi has Wichita State in as a 7 seed and their resume is worse than pretty much every team near the bubble. They have a home win against Utah in December. Their next best win is against Northern Iowa, a team they lost to twice and is 75th in the RPI. For perspective, our worst loss was the Houston game (74 in the RPI). The rest of their resume is atrocious. It almost had to be a mistake that he has them in.
 
BFieldHusky said:
Looking at Palm and Lunardi this morning....they have some stark differences, namely that Lunardi has Witchia State in as a 7, while Palm has them out completely. That's a huge difference.
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One is an independent objective observer using statistics; the other speaks for the thinking of the the NCAA. What a shock that one of their reports doesn't make sense
 
auror said:
On average he gets about 66/68.
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That's a misleading number, as people always say. The real test is how close you get to the seedings (which factors in if you missed on teams in or out)

If you do the X/68 thing you are giving them 37 or whatever freebies.
 
Wichita has a great resume. Most of it is pounding the snot out of bad teams, but that doesn't mean it doesn't tell you anything about them.

Leebo said:
That's a misleading number, as people always say. The real test is how close you get to the seedings (which factors in if you missed on teams in or out)

If you do the X/68 thing you are giving them 37 or whatever freebies.
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Sure. The real important thing is on average about 2 bubble teams missed. It's not always the last 2 either, but if you're like 5th or 6th in on his board, you should feel safe. Seedlines off is a red herring for a bracketologist. The committee butchers seeding so badly that's it's honestly impossible to predict. Anyone who claims to do well with predicting seedings just hasn't had enough samples to average out to the same distance off as everyone else.
 
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auror said:
Wichita has a great resume. Most of it is pounding the snot out of bad teams, but that doesn't mean it doesn't tell you anything about them.



Sure. The real important thing is on average about 2 bubble teams missed. It's not always the last 2 either, but if you're like 5th or 6th in on his board, you should feel safe. Seedlines off is a red herring for a bracketologist. The committee butchers seeding so badly that's it's honestly impossible to predict. Anyone who claims to do well with predicting seedings just hasn't had enough samples to average out to the same distance off as everyone else.
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Lunardi is average, Palm stinks: http://www.bracketmatrix.com/rankings.html
 
BFieldHusky said:
Looking at Palm and Lunardi this morning....they have some stark differences, namely that Lunardi has Witchia State in as a 7, while Palm has them out completely. That's a huge difference.

You can make so many arguments for and against a lot of these teams. Very hard to differentiate between them all. More so than I can remember.

I am surprised that Temple is not one of the last 4 in at this point. Yes they went 14-4 in the league. But remember they didn't play at SMU, lost to Memphis and East Carolina, and have no, I repeat no quality wins out of the league.
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I think they are off on Temple, barring a run to the AAC finals I do not see how they get in. I think Tulsa is ahead of them on the pecking order.
 
4xChamps said:
Agree. Ideal situation would be to be in Providence as a ten with Xavier waiting as the 2 seed. Think we match up well with them.
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Huh, I want no part of Xavier. But that's just my opinion.
 
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My thoroughly unscientific take is that the committee devalues the league. So it devalues league wins. That will hurt Temple.
  • Cinci has one good non-conference win against VCU. The losses to Iowa State and Butler were close.
  • UConn has wins over Texas, Ohio State, Georgetown and Michigan. Losses to Syracuse, Gonzaga and Maryland were all close.
  • Tulsa has a win over Wichita State. Out of conference SOS is awful.
  • Temple played a strong Out of conference schedule and lost to all of them in the RPI top 100. Best wins are what, Penn and Minnesota?
It is really unfortunate that UConn is playing Cincinnati. As those are likely the two teams that belong.
 
Guys, the reality is this. If we can't take 1 of 3 from Cinci, we don't belong in the dance. This is a good test for the guys, and if they fail, they get the result they deserve. It is what it is.
 
You could have the top four teams in the conference standings out (SMU, obviously, plus Temple, Houston and Tulsa) with Nos. five and six getting in. Conference play isn't everything, but that would be a pretty odd outcome.
 
Inyatkin said:
You could have the top four teams in the conference standings out (SMU, obviously, plus Temple, Houston and Tulsa) with Nos. five and six getting in. Conference play isn't everything, but that would be a pretty odd outcome.
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That's when you know you're in a lousy conference. Credit UConn for playing a tough out of conference schedule.
 
You're seeing the full PR blitz today from commish, coaches, to talk about how strong the conference is. I think we get a little more respect this year, and get one extra team in.
 
At some point you just need to start winning - nothing else matters - we have no more cushion to wait until we start winning - the time is now!
 
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HuskyHawk said:
My thoroughly unscientific take is that the committee devalues the league. So it devalues league wins. That will hurt Temple.
  • Cinci has one good non-conference win against VCU. The losses to Iowa State and Butler were close.
  • UConn has wins over Texas, Ohio State, Georgetown and Michigan. Losses to Syracuse, Gonzaga and Maryland were all close.
  • Tulsa has a win over Wichita State. Out of conference SOS is awful.
  • Temple played a strong Out of conference schedule and lost to all of them in the RPI top 100. Best wins are what, Penn and Minnesota?
It is really unfortunate that UConn is playing Cincinnati. As those are likely the two teams that belong.
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The really crazy thing is that if Uconn beats Cincy, it can conceivably give Cincy two more top 50 wins if Uconn ends up in the top 50 which they are on the cusp of now. I don't have the exact formula, but top 50 wins are important in the ratings and given the fact that it's on a neutral court they could actually benefit from it. That's some weird stuff.
 
intlzncster said:
Guys, the reality is this. If we can't take 1 of 3 from Cinci, we don't belong in the dance. This is a good test for the guys, and if they fail, they get the result they deserve. It is what it is.
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Sadly, this is the cold, hard truth. Had a chance to take all the speculation away by beating Temple twice and Cincy once with late leads. If they don't make the tourney there should be ZERO whining over who got in ahead of us. As you say, in that scenario, they will have no one to blame but themselves.
 
Chief00 said:
At some point you just need to start winning - nothing else matters - we have no more cushion to wait until we start winning - the time is now!
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Huzzaaah!!
 
I think if the winner of our next game goes on to win the auto-bid than the loser has an somewhat increased chance of a bid.
Houston ,Tulsa,or Temple get the bid than its pretty much over for the loser.
 
AZHuskiePop said:
I think if the winner of our next game goes on to win the auto-bid than the loser has an somewhat increased chance of a bid.
Houston ,Tulsa,or Temple get the bid than its pretty much over for the loser.
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That's true. Right now UConn and UC are the strongest, sadly one will be out after round one.
 
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