Lunardi Has Spoken

[auror]

The whole goal is to get in AND avoid a first four game.

First four as 11 seed is fine. 11 seed preferred to 10, 9, or 8 seed.

 

[UConnTrumbull]

It's kind of poetic. We win, we're in. We lose, we're put out of our misery.

 

[7774]

It is unacceptable to be having this conversation on the heels of a season where we were one and done in the NIT.

Why?

 

[YearoftheHusky]

It's embarrassing to lose to any team 3 teams in a single season.
But why are you singling out Cronin? The man is a good coach, and has done a nice job with Cinci in the last 10 or so years. Plus he seems like a respectable guy. Am I missing something?

If you think he is a respectable guy, with all due respect, you have missed quite a bit.

 

[Slasher]

I really don't see how Cincy won't make it. RPI of 40, KenPom of 32. They have 6 wins against teams that would be in the conversation for at-large bids (7 if you count Houston -- I don't.) Compare that to the other bubble teams out there...

Wichita State: 1
Michigan: 3
UConn: 4 (6 if you count Houston and Ohio State)
St. Bonaventure: 4
South Carolina: 4 (That's 4 if you count Florida who's in dire straights - or 5 if you include Alabama)
Providence: 4 (with 3 losses outside top 100 - safely in according to Lunardi)
Tulsa: 5
Butler: 5
Oregon State: 6 (I don't think they're a bubble team either - but Lunardi does -- they're in solidly)

I'm sorry but I seriously doubt his pedigree. I really think he's doing what ESPN is telling him and trying to drive ratings for the game on Friday. This game is far more important for UConn than Cincinnati.

 

[Jerry1714]

Game vs Cincy essentially an elimination game. Time to see what this team is made of.

Lunardi is not the end and be all though, much better than Palm, and basically every other "bracketologist" at a major site/netowrk though

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/rankings.html

 

[QDOG5]

Are there any stats on how Lunardi has fared over the years on his predictions vs. the actual tourney picks? I think UConn is in with one win. What we don't need is any upsets in of the conferences that might sneak an at large team that doesn't win the conference tourney title. It already happened in the MVC where N. Iowa won the conf. tourney and Wichita St. will probably get an at large. UConn fans should be cheering for Valpo, Monmouth and St. Marys to win their conf. tourneys because they might snag at larges even if they lose.

 

[auror]

Are there any stats on how Lunardi has fared over the years on his predictions vs. the actual tourney picks? I think UConn is in with one win. What we don't need is any upsets in of the conferences that might sneak an at large team that doesn't win the conference tourney title. It already happened in the MVC where N. Iowa won the conf. tourney and Wichita St. will probably get an at large. UConn fans should be cheering for Valpo, Monmouth and St. Marys to win their conf. tourneys because they might snag at larges even if they lose.

On average he gets about 66/68.

 

[RayIsTheGOAT]

If you think he is a respectable guy, with all due respect, you have missed quite a bit.

Is it because he's yelled at refs like 350 other division 1 coaches?

 

[Inyatkin]

Agree. Ideal situation would be to be in Providence as a ten with Xavier waiting as the 2 seed. Think we match up well with them.

Maybe. MSG was great, Worcester and Syracuse did nothing for us. Ideal situation is to get in

 

[BFieldHusky]

Looking at Palm and Lunardi this morning....they have some stark differences, namely that Lunardi has Witchia State in as a 7, while Palm has them out completely. That's a huge difference.

You can make so many arguments for and against a lot of these teams. Very hard to differentiate between them all. More so than I can remember.

I am surprised that Temple is not one of the last 4 in at this point. Yes they went 14-4 in the league. But remember they didn't play at SMU, lost to Memphis and East Carolina, and have no, I repeat no quality wins out of the league.

 

[bmo22]

Looking at Palm and Lunardi this morning....they have some stark differences, namely that Lunardi has Witchia State in as a 7, while Palm has them out completely. That's a huge difference.

You can make so many arguments for and against a lot of these teams. Very hard to differentiate between them all. More so than I can remember.

I am surprised that Temple is not one of the last 4 in at this point. Yes they went 14-4 in the league. But remember they didn't play at SMU, lost to Memphis and East Carolina, and have no, I repeat no quality wins out of the league.

This is exactly why you want to be nowhere near the bubble. As much as these guys and the committee say there's a criteria for who gets in, there's really not. Lunardi has Wichita State in as a 7 seed and their resume is worse than pretty much every team near the bubble. They have a home win against Utah in December. Their next best win is against Northern Iowa, a team they lost to twice and is 75th in the RPI. For perspective, our worst loss was the Houston game (74 in the RPI). The rest of their resume is atrocious. It almost had to be a mistake that he has them in.

 

[UC Billy]

This team has no character, heart, is gutless and has zero balls. Furthermore KO has no clue.

Now lets play some BBall on Fri.

 

[Rocktheworld]

Looking at Palm and Lunardi this morning....they have some stark differences, namely that Lunardi has Witchia State in as a 7, while Palm has them out completely. That's a huge difference.

One is an independent objective observer using statistics; the other speaks for the thinking of the the NCAA. What a shock that one of their reports doesn't make sense

 

[Leebo]

On average he gets about 66/68.

That's a misleading number, as people always say. The real test is how close you get to the seedings (which factors in if you missed on teams in or out)

If you do the X/68 thing you are giving them 37 or whatever freebies.

 

[Hoophound]

If you lose to Mick Cronin three times in a single season you don't deserve to go to the tournament.

Mick Cronin's players would take machine gun fire for him. If you don't have any toughness and no semblance of an organized offense you will lose to his guys 9 times out of 10.

 

[auror]

Wichita has a great resume. Most of it is pounding the snot out of bad teams, but that doesn't mean it doesn't tell you anything about them.

That's a misleading number, as people always say. The real test is how close you get to the seedings (which factors in if you missed on teams in or out)

If you do the X/68 thing you are giving them 37 or whatever freebies.

Sure. The real important thing is on average about 2 bubble teams missed. It's not always the last 2 either, but if you're like 5th or 6th in on his board, you should feel safe. Seedlines off is a red herring for a bracketologist. The committee butchers seeding so badly that's it's honestly impossible to predict. Anyone who claims to do well with predicting seedings just hasn't had enough samples to average out to the same distance off as everyone else.

 

[Jerry1714]

Wichita has a great resume. Most of it is pounding the snot out of bad teams, but that doesn't mean it doesn't tell you anything about them.



Sure. The real important thing is on average about 2 bubble teams missed. It's not always the last 2 either, but if you're like 5th or 6th in on his board, you should feel safe. Seedlines off is a red herring for a bracketologist. The committee butchers seeding so badly that's it's honestly impossible to predict. Anyone who claims to do well with predicting seedings just hasn't had enough samples to average out to the same distance off as everyone else.

Lunardi is average, Palm stinks: http://www.bracketmatrix.com/rankings.html

 

[Jerry1714]

Looking at Palm and Lunardi this morning....they have some stark differences, namely that Lunardi has Witchia State in as a 7, while Palm has them out completely. That's a huge difference.

You can make so many arguments for and against a lot of these teams. Very hard to differentiate between them all. More so than I can remember.

I am surprised that Temple is not one of the last 4 in at this point. Yes they went 14-4 in the league. But remember they didn't play at SMU, lost to Memphis and East Carolina, and have no, I repeat no quality wins out of the league.

I think they are off on Temple, barring a run to the AAC finals I do not see how they get in. I think Tulsa is ahead of them on the pecking order.

 

[intlzncster]

Agree. Ideal situation would be to be in Providence as a ten with Xavier waiting as the 2 seed. Think we match up well with them.

Huh, I want no part of Xavier. But that's just my opinion.

 

[intlzncster]

If you think he is a respectable guy, with all due respect, you have missed quite a bit.

What did he do?

 

[tzznandrew]

Huh, I want no part of Xavier. But that's just my opinion.

I want a part of any team in the second round of the NCAAs. That means we're in and we won.

 

[intlzncster]

I want a part of any team in the second round of the NCAAs. That means we're in and we won.

Hahah. (way) More than a fair point.

 

[HuskyHawk]

My thoroughly unscientific take is that the committee devalues the league. So it devalues league wins. That will hurt Temple.

• Cinci has one good non-conference win against VCU. The losses to Iowa State and Butler were close.
• UConn has wins over Texas, Ohio State, Georgetown and Michigan. Losses to Syracuse, Gonzaga and Maryland were all close.
• Tulsa has a win over Wichita State. Out of conference SOS is awful.
• Temple played a strong Out of conference schedule and lost to all of them in the RPI top 100. Best wins are what, Penn and Minnesota?

It is really unfortunate that UConn is playing Cincinnati. As those are likely the two teams that belong.

 

[intlzncster]

Guys, the reality is this. If we can't take 1 of 3 from Cinci, we don't belong in the dance. This is a good test for the guys, and if they fail, they get the result they deserve. It is what it is.