Lowrie for Melancon

[Cheddie]

Rosenthal reports that the Sox traded Lowrie and Weiland for reliever Mark Melancon. Melancon was once highly rated in the NY system and considered a possible successor to Rivera. Had a good past season in Houston.

http://twitter.com/#!/Ken_Rosenthal/statuses/146993269220442113

 

[Deadrody]

Yankees did a fairly good job of selling low on Melancon.

 

[Waquoit]

So NL fans, is this guy any good or what?

 

[doggydaddy]

He faced 4 AL teams last year.

8.1 innings pitched, 13 hits, 8 runs, 8 walks.

9 ERA and a 2.62 WHIP.

 

[speedoo]

When he was with the Yankees, I thought he had very good stuff but poor command. He was very promising but never got results that supported the promise.

 

[Danzz]

He faced 4 AL teams last year.

8.1 innings pitched, 13 hits, 8 runs, 8 walks.

9 ERA and a 2.62 WHIP.

That is a very small sample and probably means little. His season stats are more important.
Lowrie is really out of position at SS and he projects more at 2B. He doesn't hit with enough power to play 3B everyday and the Sox have Pedroia and Scuturo at 2B so he was expendable. Lowie's main value was as a utility player.
I don't know about Melancon but he does add a major league arm to the bullpen. Overall the Sox probably got better with this trade. Now we'll have to see if he can pitch in Boston.

 

[doggydaddy]

That is a very small sample and probably means little. His season stats are more important.
Lowrie is really out of position at SS and he projects more at 2B. He doesn't hit with enough power to play 3B everyday and the Sox have Pedroia and Scuturo at 2B so he was expendable. Lowie's main value was as a utility player.
I don't know about Melancon but he does add a major league arm to the bullpen. Overall the Sox probably got better with this trade. Now we'll have to see if he can pitch in Boston.

Not sure how little that means, but it is only 1/10th of his season. His season stats are decent. I would worry about 5 blown saves. As a full time closer, that would be closer to 10. And the AL East is a different animal.

 

[Danzz]

Not sure how little that means, but it is only 1/10th of his season. His season stats are decent. I would worry about 5 blown saves. As a full time closer, that would be closer to 10. And the AL East is a different animal.

Those stats were not even for a full 9 innings of pitching. He only had to get rocked in 1 game for his stats to blow up. As you said, the 5 blown saves are the important stat. I really believe that Bard will end up being the closer and Melancan pitching the 7th or 8th. No matter where they pitch Melancan the Sox bullpen is weaker without Papalbon.
I hate the idea of making Bard a starter and fear what happened to Chamberlain will happen to him. Chamberlain went from a dominating reliever with the best hard slider I've ever seen to a run of the mill pitcher. The same could happen to Bard.

 

[60'sfan]

Bard was so bad as a starter in the minors that the Sox considered releasing him. I think it would be very risky to try him there again. I like him as a set-up man and am not convinced that he can be a closer. When he hits a bad streak, it tends to last a month. Closers can't do that.

 

[NHUConnfan]

It doesn't look like Melancon is going to be a closer. But not a bad deal for an oft injured Lowrie and a mediocre prospect in Weiland.

 

[Deadrody]

That is a very small sample and probably means little. His season stats are more important.
Lowrie is really out of position at SS and he projects more at 2B. He doesn't hit with enough power to play 3B everyday and the Sox have Pedroia and Scuturo at 2B so he was expendable. Lowie's main value was as a utility player.
I don't know about Melancon but he does add a major league arm to the bullpen. Overall the Sox probably got better with this trade. Now we'll have to see if he can pitch in Boston.

No chance the Sox got the better of that deal if Lowrie stays healthy and moves to 2B (assuming Sox fans opinions on that are valid). If he stays at SS, he is probably a potential all star in the NL. Lowrie was a 2 win player for the Sox in 2010 in just 200 plate appearances. Melancon was only a 0.8 win player as the closer for the Astros - with above average stats - in 74 innings.

Melancon had trouble in NY with his control and unless he turns into a bona fide closer, he doesn't come close to adding the kind of value an above average position player adds to the lineup every day.

At best it is an even swap for the Sox. But if they didn't think they had a spot for Lowrie, they don't have a way to add that value from him anyhow, so it makes sense.

 

[Deadrody]

Those stats were not even for a full 9 innings of pitching. He only had to get rocked in 1 game for his stats to blow up.

Melancon pitched in 7 games against the AL in 2011.

He was fine in his first two games in May against Toronto.

After that, he proceeded to give up runs all but one of his next 5 games against the AL, the one game he didn't give up runs he only pitched to one batter against Texas.

The other games;

Texas - 1 inning, 2 hits, 1 HR, 1 run
Texas - 2 innings, 1 hit, 3 walks, 1 run
Tampa - 1.1 innings, 6 hits, 1 walk, 1 HR, 5 runs
Boston - 1 inning, 1 hit, 3 walks, 1 run

Over those 4 appearances, his ERA was 13.50

Very small sample size, but of the 23 earned runs he gave up last year, 35% came in those 4 games. Those teams were #1, #2, and #7 in batting in 2011. The one team that didn't score against him was the Jays down at #16.

Make of it what you will

 

[Danzz]

No chance the Sox got the better of that deal if Lowrie stays healthy and moves to 2B (assuming Sox fans opinions on that are valid). If he stays at SS, he is probably a potential all star in the NL. Lowrie was a 2 win player for the Sox in 2010 in just 200 plate appearances. Melancon was only a 0.8 win player as the closer for the Astros - with above average stats - in 74 innings.

Melancon had trouble in NY with his control and unless he turns into a bona fide closer, he doesn't come close to adding the kind of value an above average position player adds to the lineup every day.

At best it is an even swap for the Sox. But if they didn't think they had a spot for Lowrie, they don't have a way to add that value from him anyhow, so it makes sense.

Lowrie and he will not be an all star SS no matter wherever he plays. The man has very little range. It is hard to see him hitting over .260 with little power if he plays everyday. The Sox have Pedroia at 2B so there is no position for him in the starting lineup with the Sox so basicly lose a utility player and they already signed a utility player (can't recall his name, from the Cards).
This trade certainly isn't monumental in any way for either team. Even if Melancon is used in long relief at least they added an arm. The Sox still need a starter, closer and a dependable 3B.Overall, they are weaker this season.

 

[bpo57]

He faced 4 AL teams last year.

8.1 innings pitched, 13 hits, 8 runs, 8 walks.

9 ERA and a 2.62 WHIP.

Doggy, nobody can do more with stats than you. You're the best. Those numbers you cite were particularly skewed by one bad outing against Tampa where he gave up six hits and five runs. You could concoct a case against just about any pitcher in MLB if you take that approach.

 

[bpo57]

No chance the Sox got the better of that deal if Lowrie stays healthy and moves to 2B (assuming Sox fans opinions on that are valid). If he stays at SS, he is probably a potential all star in the NL. Lowrie was a 2 win player for the Sox in 2010 in just 200 plate appearances. Melancon was only a 0.8 win player as the closer for the Astros - with above average stats - in 74 innings.

Melancon had trouble in NY with his control and unless he turns into a bona fide closer, he doesn't come close to adding the kind of value an above average position player adds to the lineup every day.

At best it is an even swap for the Sox. But if they didn't think they had a spot for Lowrie, they don't have a way to add that value from him anyhow, so it makes sense.

You can talk about winshares etc all you want with Lowrie. Here's the bottom line on him. He's a pretty good hitter but he's a very mediocre defensive SS and he has a very hard time staying on the field. If Melancon can pitch at or near the level he pitched last year (admittedly not a given) then the Sox probably stole one here. Plus he comes to the Sox at cheap, controllable dollars for the next few years.

 

[doggydaddy]

Doggy, nobody can do more with stats than you. You're the best. Those numbers you cite were particularly skewed by one bad outing against Tampa where he gave up six hits and five runs. You could concoct a case against just about any pitcher in MLB if you take that approach.

Nothing but facts. All the AL teams he faced.

 

[sinkhole]

No chance the Sox got the better of that deal if Lowrie stays healthy and moves to 2B (assuming Sox fans opinions on that are valid). If he stays at SS, he is probably a potential all star in the NL. Lowrie was a 2 win player for the Sox in 2010 in just 200 plate appearances. Melancon was only a 0.8 win player as the closer for the Astros - with above average stats - in 74 innings.

Melancon had trouble in NY with his control and unless he turns into a bona fide closer, he doesn't come close to adding the kind of value an above average position player adds to the lineup every day.

At best it is an even swap for the Sox. But if they didn't think they had a spot for Lowrie, they don't have a way to add that value from him anyhow, so it makes sense.

The AL bias still reins on this board. Lowrie an All Star in the NL? Tolowski, Rollins, Castro, Hanley, Rollins....come on man.

 

[Deadrody]

The AL bias still reins on this board. Lowrie an All Star in the NL? Tolowski, Rollins, Castro, Hanley, Rollins....come on man.

First of all, I said potential, second of all, Rollins ? He's already better than Rollins. And Hanley Ramirez went from an OPS of 0.953 in 2009 to 0.863 in 2010 down to 0.712 in 2011. I don't know what his deal is, but with Reyes in the fold, its pretty clear Hanley's days as a SS are over. Whether or not he can regain his form at 3B or on some other team is debatable. What is also debatable is whether or not he is a better player than Jed Lowrie right now, today.

Tulowitzki and Reyes are the cream of the NL crop at SS, Castro is very good, but not in their class yet. Lowrie has the potential to get there. Clearly the Sox don't think he will. The Astros are willing to take a flier on him.

 

[Danzz]

First of all, I said potential, second of all, Rollins ? He's already better than Rollins. And Hanley Ramirez went from an OPS of 0.953 in 2009 to 0.863 in 2010 down to 0.712 in 2011. I don't know what his deal is, but with Reyes in the fold, its pretty clear Hanley's days as a SS are over. Whether or not he can regain his form at 3B or on some other team is debatable. What is also debatable is whether or not he is a better player than Jed Lowrie right now, today.

Tulowitzki and Reyes are the cream of the NL crop at SS, Castro is very good, but not in their class yet. Lowrie has the potential to get there. Clearly the Sox don't think he will. The Astros are willing to take a flier on him.

What is all this love for Lowie? He had a real good start of the season with the bat but then fell off. Lowrie hasn't shown any potential IMO. He has decent hands and less than average range.This isn't how upper tier shortstops are described. The Sox didn't trade a potential all star, they traded a utility man.

 

[NHUConnfan]

Lowrie isn't that good. He was supposed to be that good - but injuries and inconsistent playing time really diminished any hope of him being anything more than a role player.

 

[sinkhole]

First of all, I said potential, second of all, Rollins ? He's already better than Rollins. And Hanley Ramirez went from an OPS of 0.953 in 2009 to 0.863 in 2010 down to 0.712 in 2011. I don't know what his deal is, but with Reyes in the fold, its pretty clear Hanley's days as a SS are over. Whether or not he can regain his form at 3B or on some other team is debatable. What is also debatable is whether or not he is a better player than Jed Lowrie right now, today.

Tulowitzki and Reyes are the cream of the NL crop at SS, Castro is very good, but not in their class yet. Lowrie has the potential to get there. Clearly the Sox don't think he will. The Astros are willing to take a flier on him.

LOl here is what you said...If he stays at SS, he is probably a potential all star in the NL.......

Are you serious? Lowrie better then Rollins....this is silly. The most important aspect of playing short is fielding. Rollins is one of the best of his era, he has 3 gold gloves an MVP, 5 tool player with a HOF resume. Please don't put a guy who couldn't beat out Marco Scutaro in the same universe as Rollins.

 

[Danzz]

Lowrie isn't that good. He was supposed to be that good - but injuries and inconsistent playing time really diminished any hope of him being anything more than a role player.

+1 Finally, some sense. I don't think he was ever projected as a SS.

 

[NHUConnfan]

+1 Finally, some sense. I don't think he was ever projected as a SS.

I think maybe if he wasn't so prone to injury - yes. I think the Red Sox forced him there because of Pedroia. It was clear that Lowrie was not going to be a huge player after the 2010 season. The fact that they got any kind of decent talent back for him and Weiland is quite an incredible trade if you ask me.

 

[bpo57]

First of all, I said potential, second of all, Rollins ? He's already better than Rollins. And Hanley Ramirez went from an OPS of 0.953 in 2009 to 0.863 in 2010 down to 0.712 in 2011. I don't know what his deal is, but with Reyes in the fold, its pretty clear Hanley's days as a SS are over. Whether or not he can regain his form at 3B or on some other team is debatable. What is also debatable is whether or not he is a better player than Jed Lowrie right now, today.

Tulowitzki and Reyes are the cream of the NL crop at SS, Castro is very good, but not in their class yet. Lowrie has the potential to get there. Clearly the Sox don't think he will. The Astros are willing to take a flier on him.

Hard not to notice that you get very bullish on Red Sox players (Lowrie, Papelbon) AFTER they leave Boston

 

[bpo57]

Nothing but facts. All the AL teams he faced.

Pretty much meaningless facts given the small sample size. One bad outing completed skewed the overall AL #s.