Louisville Postgame Thread

[CL82]

I’ve been on the Boneyard for 30 years

Hard to believe it's been that long, isn't it?

 

[Centerstream]

I believe he is correct. They did switch to a zone defense.

And in the second half, Rebecca Lobo stated it on Louisville's first or second time on defense, so I too think he was correct.

 

[FanFromMaine]

Also : bummer on attendance. Lotsa empty seats.

3640/5710 capacity (64%)

I beg to differ. UConn plays at Georgetown in a 4200 seat off-campus facility. All three years i’ve attended, the arena is full. But that includes a good size Hoya contingent.

At Navy, there was a small Louisville group, a fair size group of season ticket holders and the rest UConn supporters. For a Tuesday night at 5:30 game, i was pleasantly surprised by the crowd.

 

[Centerstream]

Hard to believe it's been that long, isn't it?

Was the internet even invented 30 years ago? 🤣

Sarcasm...I know it was because I got a job in 1993 working on an internet based app.

 

[Bigboote]

That would be Idaho State, I guess.

Since it seems we can extrapolate an entire season from one game, it looks like Vermont should be the runaway favorite to win it all this year

View attachment 113031

I respect your point of view. I'll go out on a limb and possibly anger the basketball goddesses, though, and predict that UConn will overtake both the Catamounts and the Bengals, likely sometime in mid-late February.😱 Or possibly as soon as either school plays someone from Division I.

 

[CL82]

Was the internet even invented 30 years ago? 🤣

I'm old enough to remember those early days as well. I believe the Boneyard servers at the time required Tom to generate electricity using a hand crank system in his garage.

 

[NycUcWbbFan]

Nitpick incoming. Feel free to ignore. The term ‘rotation’ doesn’t seem quite right for the first game of the season. I submit that ‘rotation’ mainly makes sense in terms of average playing time across multiple games. Some define this as ‘minutes when the game is still competitive.’ The shorthand for this I use is 10 minutes: above this typically means competitive minutes, below it means non-competitive minutes. If you have the patience to study individual game stats, this can definitely be fine tuned. If not, than 10 mpg is a decent cutoff for the term ‘rotation.’

In this one game 8 players got some minutes but only 6 got at least 10 mins. If we insist on using the term rotation here, then this game suggests a 6 player rotation. Clearly this is not an accurate sense of things as Blanca is very likely to be a rotation player across the entire season, and maybe even more than this. So too, at least one of Jana and Ice will be in the rotation, and maybe even both of them. And for those of us imagining a 10 or 11 player rotation, maybe Allie and Kelis, or even Morgan could work their way in.

Until we’ve seen a few more games — maybe a dozen or more — perhaps we should be careful about using limited numbers to declare a rotation has been determined. Of course, we can always forecast such things on the most limited of evidence.

Bill James (who invented Pythagorean Expectation which is a bedrock of KenPom (he has since adjusted it) and women’s KenPom) has a famous ”Is the Game Safe” heurestic &1 that can be used to demarcate between “competitive minutes” and “garbage time”. Of course, one doesn’t need the heuristic if the opponent has emptied out its bench.

Women’s KenPom removes garbage time.

Aubrey is a rotation player (someone who Geno trusts in competitive minutes of games) in the South Carolina finals game, even though she only subbed for Sarah at the end of the third quarter to a few minutes after the 4th, to give Sarah a breather and keep pressure at SC with a “bridge rotation” version of small ball.

And yes, max of 10/11 rotation, is a WAG at this point.

&1 The heuristic is particularly applicable to teams that can make nearly impossible runs. For certain opponents, Geno may choose to play, say Gandy, earlier than what the heuristic says.

 

[HuskyNan]

I respect your point of view. I'll go out on a limb and possibly anger the basketball goddesses, though, and predict that UConn will overtake both the Catamounts and the Bengals, likely sometime in mid-late February.😱 Or possibly as soon as either school plays someone from Division I.

Don’t slow me down - I’m on a roll

 

[Bone Dog]

Bill James (who invented Pythagorean Expectation which is a bedrock of KenPom (he has since adjusted it) and women’s KenPom) has a famous ”Is the Game Safe” heurestic &1 that can be used to demarcate between “competitive minutes” and “garbage time”. Of course, one doesn’t need the heuristic if the opponent has emptied out its bench.

Women’s KenPom removes garbage time.

Aubrey is a rotation player (someone who Geno trusts in competitive minutes of games) in the South Carolina finals game, even though she only subbed for Sarah at the end of the third quarter to a few minutes after the 4th, to give Sarah a breather and keep pressure at SC with a “bridge rotation” version of small ball.

And yes, max of 10/11 rotation, is a WAG at this point.

&1 The heuristic is particularly applicable to teams that can make nearly impossible runs. For certain opponents, Geno may choose to play, say Gandy, earlier than what the heuristic says.

Thanks for the awesome KenPom links. Those are always fun, and it was wonderful to spend a little time on his pages. Of course, the temptation to really get deeply lost in the weeds over there is always a concern. 🙀

As a side note, I try to avoid the term 'garbage time' as it feels a little insensitive to the players who are relegated to the end of the bench. Most of them are kids who've worked incredibly hard to get even that far, and some of them are kids who might start at other schools but choose to stay at UConn because of the quality of the experience. In many cases, their contributions are real even if we don't see it in game play.

That said, I appreciate the effort KenPom makes to clarify quantitative measures of the obscuring effect of what can happen at the end of non-competitive games. By contrast, my 10 mpg rule of thumb is an example of a totally rough and ready, and therefore not super accurate way to capture a similar reality, but with very little subtlety. And your remark about Aubrey in the SC game makes its limitations clear. For example, if I look at the stats for an entire season, I can begin by assuming that only the kids who got 10 mpg or better were really part of the regular rotation. But even this can be misleading unless I add in a 'games played' correction, and the difference between top-20 vs unranked opponents would refine it even further. And the list of tweaks one could make just goes on from there. Ultimately, the most refined determination of the rotation would not correlate very well with a simple mpg stat. But most of the time, I don't have the time for anything subtler than my 10 mpg rule.

 

[YKCornelius]

There are 32 season games, 6 games against current Top25, and 21 Big East season games.

Geno has to balance many objectives every game toward the overarching program goals of Big East and NCAAT championships.

In another thread, I made a distinction between winning-time rotations &1 and bridge rotations in a maximum 10/11 rotation in competitive minutes.

I think it is fair to say that Geno’s objectives in Game 1 (an assessment game table-setter for the season’s trajectory) against 1 of the 6 ranked opponents is different than other games.

• I opined above that the Louisville game was a great first game;
• That game is geared toward assessing his winning time rotations &1 (those with spurtability) and making them crave further teaching.

There are many other games for other objectives. UConn’s schedule has its farm system advantages.

&1 Winning-time combinations hypothesis:

(Azzi, Sarah) + 2 or 3 or 1 of (Serah, Ash, Blanca) + 1 or 0 or 2 of (KK, Kayleigh).

NycUcWbbFan, good, thought provoking points. I agree with you.

Slight correction/clarification: there are only 31 season games, followed by potentially nine tournament games. The Sports-Reference link you gave reflects an erroneous double-count of Creighton in the middle of February.

 

[boontonbomber]

Bill James (who invented Pythagorean Expectation which is a bedrock of KenPom (he has since adjusted it) and women’s KenPom) has a famous ”Is the Game Safe” heurestic &1 that can be used to demarcate between “competitive minutes” and “garbage time”. Of course, one doesn’t need the heuristic if the opponent has emptied out its bench.

Women’s KenPom removes garbage time.

Aubrey is a rotation player (someone who Geno trusts in competitive minutes of games) in the South Carolina finals game, even though she only subbed for Sarah at the end of the third quarter to a few minutes after the 4th, to give Sarah a breather and keep pressure at SC with a “bridge rotation” version of small ball.

And yes, max of 10/11 rotation, is a WAG at this point.

&1 The heuristic is particularly applicable to teams that can make nearly impossible runs. For certain opponents, Geno may choose to play, say Gandy, earlier than what the heuristic says.

Pythagorean Expectation? Named that because formula is similar to Pythagorean Theorem? Because it has exponents? What a stretch! Haven't seen such a classic example of "baffle them with BS" in a long time.

 

[FanFromMaine]

Pythagorean Expectation? Named that because formula is similar to Pythagorean Theorem? Because it has exponents? What a stretch! Haven't seen such a classic example of "baffle them with BS" in a long time.

Pythagorean theorem: a2+b2=c2

Pythagorean expectation: win ratio =
runs scored2 divided by (runs scored2 + runs allowed2)

 

[NycUcWbbFan]

Pythagorean theorem: a2+b2=c2

Pythagorean expectation: win ratio =
runs scored2 divided by (runs scored2 + runs allowed2)

Certain notable basketball analytics persons have curve-hit different exponents.

Women’s KenPom uses an exponent of 11.5.

Sorry for the derailment of the thread.

 

[Bald Husky]

For some reason, after all the hype, all the anticipation, watching this game didn't really motivate me to get up and cheer, actually the opposite. Although I was thrilled with the beginning, it just didn't feel right. One thing was the constant talking, not announcing when relief players entered the game, even not acknowledging who was taking a shot at some points. I figured out what the problem really was, and that was the crowd. There was very little cheering for either team, and the crowd is usually what gets the team and the TV fans jumping and cheering back in the living room. I watched it again last night and got the same feeling. Now Sunday, that's a different animal with a sold out Gampel crowd welcoming 5 new players, and of course the defending national championship players watching the new banner being raised. I can't wait for this game; it will be entirely different experience.

 

[oldude]

For some reason, after all the hype, all the anticipation, watching this game didn't really motivate me to get up and cheer, actually the opposite. Although I was thrilled with the beginning, it just didn't feel right. One thing was the constant talking, not announcing when relief players entered the game, even not acknowledging who was taking a shot at some points. I figured out what the problem really was, and that was the crowd. There was very little cheering for either team, and the crowd is usually what gets the team and the TV fans jumping and cheering back in the living room. I watched it again last night and got the same feeling. Now Sunday, that's a different animal with a sold out Gampel crowd welcoming 5 new players, and of course the defending national championship players watching the new banner being raised. I can't wait for this game; it will be entirely different experience.

What crowd? Alumni Hall seats approximately 5,700 fans and the stated attendance was around 3,600, although there didn’t appear to be that many fans at the game. I was a little disappointed in the crowd size. While I understand that the late game shift from Germany to Annapolis created some logistical challenges, I think that if the parties involved immediately started selling tickets, rather than waiting a week or so to get their act together, they might have filled the arena with a much more energetic and enthusiastic crowd.

One additional comment on small arenas. Seton Hall’s Walsh Arena is an old bandbox of a gym on campus, and it holds a paltry 1316 fans. But whenever the UConn women play there the arena is packed and very loud.

 

[FanSince17]

What crowd? Alumni Hall seats approximately 5,700 fans and the stated attendance was around 3,600, although there didn’t appear to be that many fans at the game. I was a little disappointed in the crowd size. While I understand that the late game shift from Germany to Annapolis created some logistical challenges, I think that if the parties involved immediately started selling tickets, rather than waiting a week or so to get their act together, they might have filled the arena with a much more energetic and enthusiastic crowd.

One additional comment on small arenas. Seton Hall’s Walsh Arena is an old bandbox of a gym on campus, and it holds a paltry 1316 fans. But whenever the UConn women play there the arena is packed and very loud.

All due respect to all concerned, it was the lower level or military persons that were underrepresented. The “DMV” has many military installations, not to mention veterans. You would think there could have been necessary communication within the military. I also expected to see in attendance more midshipmen. You would think, if anyone can turn on a dime, it would be our armed forces.
This was a chance to see a reallly good basketball matchup in addition to a chance to honor the Armed Forces.
I actually got yelled at by another fan for talking during the game.(yes, I can talk too much, but come on now, was this a golf tournament or a tennis match?)
I was disappointed too. Hey- I saw Azzi’s parents outside. Awesome!

 

[oldude]

All due respect to all concerned, it was the lower level or military persons that were underrepresented. The “DMV” has many military installations, not to mention veterans. You would think there could have been necessary communication within the military. I also expected to see in attendance more midshipmen. You would think, if anyone can turn on a dime, it would be our armed forces.
This was a chance to see a reallly good basketball matchup in addition to a chance to honor the Armed Forces.
I actually got yelled at by another fan for talking during the game.(yes, I can talk too much, but come on now, was this a golf tournament or a tennis match?)
I was disappointed too. Hey- I saw Azzi’s parents outside. Awesome!

The start time, right around dinner time for the Midshipmen, probably didn’t help. I just think there were a lot more UConn fans in the DMV who would have jumped at the opportunity to buy tickets to the game if they had a little more time to react. You’ll remember that for a week+ there was speculation as to whether or not tickets would go on sale to the general public, or military personnel only would be allowed to attend.

The one thing we do know is that the entire Navy WBB team was in attendance. They have posted a picture on social media after the game, together with Paige.

In addition, I find it unbelievable that a fan yelled at you for talking during a game. Did he think he was at a chess match?

 

[Basingstoke]

What crowd? Alumni Hall seats approximately 5,700 fans and the stated attendance was around 3,600, although there didn’t appear to be that many fans at the game. I was a little disappointed in the crowd size. While I understand that the late game shift from Germany to Annapolis created some logistical challenges, I think that if the parties involved immediately started selling tickets, rather than waiting a week or so to get their act together, they might have filled the arena with a much more energetic and enthusiastic crowd.

One additional comment on small arenas. Seton Hall’s Walsh Arena is an old bandbox of a gym on campus, and it holds a paltry 1316 fans. But whenever the UConn women play there the arena is packed and very loud.

Walsh is also the best arena i can imagine to see/enjoy a UCONN game away from home.

 

[DEpup]

Was the internet even invented 30 years ago? 🤣

Sarcasm...I know it was because I got a job in 1993 working on an internet based app.

Was it an AOL chat platform at the start?