Loss to Cincy really simplifies things.....Magic Number is 1.

[Hi-Low]

UConn can lose 1 more game to avoid the final "bubble". Right now we are squarely on the bubble....the bubble is 16 teams....8 are in, 8 are out. So it's simple, lose 2 more regular season games & that's where we will reside on Selection Sunday. Not a horrible place to be given how the season has gone & if in a situation where we must win the AAC Tourney to get in that's not all that daunting...no scary AAC teams.

To be clear IMHO, if UConn has 10 losses (inlcuding AAC tourney) there is zero chance of a at-large bid. If the last 2 years in AAC have taught us anything it's that whatever you think is good enough for a at-large It's Not!

1 loss (14-4, 24-7) - We are gold (8 seed)...could move up to a 6 seed with AAC title.
2 losses (13-5, 23-8) - On the bubble, probably the "good" side but probably a "play-in" game.
3 losses (12-6 22-9) - On the bubble, probably the "bad" side....must win the AAC tourney & avoid 10th loss.

So forget the Rpi or Bpi or Lpi....we are past that...it's only about wins & losses now.

 

[Slasher]

This site is pretty good at that sort of thing. https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/connecticut-huskies/bracketology

The right side is particular interesting, # of wins needed to likely make tournament.

 

[Uconn77Duke74]

losing to Cinci, Temple at home doesn't give me any confidence about @cinci, @smu and @ temple. Certainly wouldn't put any money on @memphis either. we are in big trouble unless Brimah comes back with a vengeance of some kind.

 

[BlueDogs]

No tourney for 2 years in a row would be a real bummer. For whatever reason, this team does not have the winning instinct to close out games. Cant say they are not highly competitive and capable of playing with the best, they just cant sustain a high level of play. These would be areas that solid coaching could improve..... year 2 of KO really sucking wind. Does not compute.

 

[Slasher]

UConn is favored in all but 2 of the remaining games:

Toughest Remaining Games
Date Opponent Loc Win Odds
3/3 S Methodist Away 25.0%
2/20 Cincinnati Away 32.5%
2/18 S Methodist Home 53.4%
2/4 Memphis Away 54.4%
2/11 Temple Away 63.2%
1/31 Central FL Away 80.7%
2/13 Tulsa Home 81.8%
2/28 Houston Home 86.2%
2/25 S Florida Away 89.9%
3/6 Central FL Home 94.8%
2/7 E Carolina Home 95.9%

 

[TasteofUConn]

Thank you but I'll not be having any of that Kool Aide.

This is like a boxing match or UFC match - the only way to be sure is to not leave it in the judge's hands.

It's also like that scene from Aliens when Ripley suggests that they go back into orbit and "nuke the site" because "it's the only way to be sure."

For us, that amounts to winning the AAC tournament, and I currently consider that the only path we have to get in, figuring that we're going to be left out if we are anywhere near the bubble, and figuring that it's delusional that we're only going to have one more loss.

 

[Palatine]

They were favored in many of our losses.

This is a team that is 2-8 in games decided by three points or less in the last two years. They simply crack under pressure. Until someone stands up at the end and makes plays, they will continue to play themselves out of the tournament.

 

[August_West]

Thank you but I'll not be having any of that Kool Aide.

This is like a boxing match or UFC match - the only way to be sure is to not leave it in the judge's hands.

It's also like that scene from Aliens when Ripley suggests that they go back into orbit and "nuke the site" because "it's the only way to be sure."

For us, that amounts to winning the AAC tournament, and I currently consider that the only path we have to get in, figuring that we're going to be left out if we are anywhere near the bubble, and figuring that it's delusional that we're only going to have one more loss.

I disagree, as Ive maintained for a month that 7 losses gets us in easily. We sweat at 8 and 99% dont make it at 9, so I think OP is spot on.

However, I also think you are actually more really spot on in the reality of the situation because there is simply no way in hell we are going 10-1 against the remaining schedule. Not this team. So yeah, its AAC tournament or bust (prediction we lose in the finals like last year).

 

[Shabazzkets]

I would bet my house on 4 more losses. OK, not my house, but definitely my car.

I see two losses to SMU, and road losses to Cinci and Memphis. If we managed to win one of those four, we'd then have to sweep the weaker teams--and I'm not sold on our ability to win at Temple, nor am I certain we could beat Tulsa at home.

Maybe they prove me wrong, but I think the season comes down to the two SMU games. Win one of them and we'll have a marquee victory to pair with the Texas and Michigan games (which I think will look pretty good by year end). That should be enough to get us into the tourney if we mostly take care of other business.

 

[Fishy]

They're 5th in the conference and they've lost to four teams above them...two of them at home.

They'll likely lose between three and five more games during the regular season.

Given how dismissive the committee has been towards UConn and the rest of the AAC, I think we're in some trouble.

 

[Hi-Low]

They're 5th in the conference and they've lost to four teams above them...two of them at home.

They'll likely lose between three and five more games during the regular season.

Given how dismissive the committee has been towards UConn and the rest of the AAC, I think we're in some trouble.

I don't disagree that we are more likely than not going to lose too many games for an at-large, but if we find a way to only lose 2 then I think we just barely get in.

Otherwise will need to win 3 in Orlando...assuming we are 6th or better in AAC standings.

 

[JSM1970]

They have to play SMU twice, @ Cincy and Temple, 2 teams that beat UConn and probably a few other tough ones.

I don't disagree that we are more likely than not going to lose too many games for an at-large, but if we find a way to only lose 2 then I think we just barely get in.

 

[Hi-Low]

They have to play SMU twice, @ Cincy and Temple, 2 teams that beat UConn and probably a few other tough ones.

I know the schedule, doesn't mean they can't win. Cincy, Temple & SMU are teams much like UConn...can win or lose any of them.

 

[UConnTrumbull]

It's truly mind-boggling how p1ss poor we are in this conference. This is a Cincy team on a down year, a Temple team that lost to ECU, Tulsa. We used to scoff at how bad this conference is but really, it's us. All we are doing is proving how useless we would be in bball in a P5 conference. People always saying we "instantly" bring up a P5 conference in men's bball. I don't see how that is even true anymore.

 

[gtcam]

SIMPLE
Get AB on the court, get JA more playing time and WIN the AAC tournament
I really think the AAC tournament is the best chance this team has
I cant seethis leaderless horse losing only 1 or 2 more games until tourney time - just can't see it

 

[Jerry1714]

23-8 would put us with an RPI of 33 and solidly in the tournament. 22-9 would be an RPI of 40. So the magic number is not 1, its probably 2.

Whether we can get to 23-8 is another question.

 

[gtcam]

It's truly mind-boggling how p1ss poor we are in this conference. This is a Cincy team on a down year, a Temple team that lost to ECU, Tulsa. We used to scoff at how bad this conference is but really, it's us. All we are doing is proving how useless we would be in bball in a P5 conference. People always saying we "instantly" bring up a P5 conference in men's bball. I don't see how that is even true anymore.

I hardly think UConn would be useless in P5 bball that as much of a BS statement as I've seen on this site
Yes, THIS team may be less than competetive and even that I question
But the program? NO
4 Championships and IF in a P5 the recruiting would take an upswing

 

[Hi-Low]

23-8 would put us with an RPI of 33 and solidly in the tournament. 22-9 would be an RPI of 40. So the magic number is not 1, its probably 2.

Whether we can get to 23-8 is another question.

I said Magic number was 1 to avoid the bubble....2 losses and we are on the bubble, probably the good side but still not a good place.

Fyi....23-8 is 2 loses, not solidly in & 22-9 is 3 loses, would say probably out.

 

[NC_Uconn_Fan]

It's truly sad UCONN basketball has come to this. We're trying to figure out how many more times we can lose and still get into the tourny, we're not even in February yet. We play in a crap conference and we are not all that good in it.

 

[JimHurley]

If we finish 22-9 in the regular season, we'll have to at least make it to the AAC final. With 10 losses in the regular season, it's conference tourney win or NIT. Good thing is, our schedule doesn't look that tough throughout the rest of the year. UCF twice, Memphis, East Carolina, Temple, Tulsa, Cincinnati, USF, Houston, and SMU twice. The only games I'm really worried about are Cincinnati and SMU. My gut is we finish with 9 losses.

 

[superjohn]

Last night was a must win and we gave it away, we are in big trouble.

 

[Tenspro2002]

I said earlier in the week that we need to have 8 losses or fewer to be safely off the bubble. That means we can afford only 1 more regular season loss, plus 1 loss in the AACT.

Yesterday's loss forces us to thread a very small needle. You saw the list of games and our predicted chances of winning. Punt the @SMU game. We have to win every other game to be safe.

If we merely meet expectations -- lose the 2 games we're an underdog and win all the games we're a favorite -- we will be sweating it out on Selection Sunday barring an AACT title.

I echo the sentiment that it is sad how far UConn basketball has fallen. In decades past, the only discussion at this time of year was which region we wanted to end up in and whether we'd get a #1 or a #2 seed.

 

[DogMania]

No tourney for 2 years in a row would be a real bummer. For whatever reason, this team does not have the winning instinct to close out games. Cant say they are not highly competitive and capable of playing with the best, they just cant sustain a high level of play. These would be areas that solid coaching could improve..... year 2 of KO really sucking wind. Does not compute.

To put it simply, we lack what the guy who sat behind the bench last night has. Shabazz Napier was in the house, but unfortunately not on the floor. This team doesn't have a winning time type player who Ollie can put the ball in his hands and tell him go win the game.

Having the ball in Gibbs' hands with 10 seconds on the shot clock is a bad idea. It drove me crazy seeing that happen time after time last night. We just don't have a Kemba, Bazz, or even a Boatright, who can either create their own shot or at least get enough space to kick it out to someone who can. Although Gibbs is a good shooter, he's just not athletic enough to create enough space for a shot or drive by the defender. He gets completely overwhelmed way too many times and either takes an extremely low percentage shot or gets no shot off at all.

 

[FLhusky91]

One question I have is, does anyone think the selection committee will take into account the fact that two of our close losses came when Brimah was out and he could have been the difference we needed? That doesn't change the fact that our offense played absolutely terrible in the 2nd half, but I'm just thinking that if Brimah is playing, temple doesn't get that shot down and Clarks shot yesterday would have definitely been defended way better. Shouldn't think if this if that but just wondering what the selection committee might be thinking.

 

[UConnTrumbull]

One question I have is, does anyone think the selection committee will take into account the fact that two of our close losses came when Brimah was out and he could have been the difference we needed? That doesn't change the fact that our offense played absolutely terrible in the 2nd half, but I'm just thinking that if Brimah is playing, temple doesn't get that shot down and Clarks shot yesterday would have definitely been defended way better. Shouldn't think if this if that but just wondering what the selection committee might be thinking.

Maybe but I think the fact that we're in the AAC cancels that out. I wonder if we get a "recent champions" lift. Kinda like how in football they do all they can to keep the bluebloods ahead of the Iowa's of the world with similar or better records.