Looking ahead to Thursday's top-16 reveal #2

[Plebe]

On Thursday, during halftime of UConn-South Carolina, the NCAA selection committee will release its second "reveal" of the top 16 teams as they rank them.

Below is the top 16 from the first reveal of Jan. 18, with each team's results since then in parentheses:

1. UConn (beat Tulsa, Temple, Memphis, Tulane) [x]
2. Miss St (beat Tennessee, Florida, Ole Miss) [+]
3. Louisville (beat Pitt, lost to Florida St, beat Miami and Wake Forest) [–]
4. Oregon (lost to Oregon St; beat Oregon St, Colorado, Utah) [–]
5. Tennessee (lost to Notre Dame and Miss St; beat Ole Miss; lost to LSU) [––]
6. Notre Dame (beat Tennessee, Clemson, Pitt, Florida St) [++]
7. Texas (beat Texas Tech, lost to Baylor, beat Iowa St) [x]
8. South Carolina (beat Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Arkansas, Missouri) [+]
9. Baylor (beat Iowa St, Kansas St, Texas, West Virginia) [++]
10. Ohio St (lost to Maryland and Iowa; beat Michigan St) [––]
11. Florida St (beat Wake Forest and Louisville; lost to Notre Dame) [+]
12. UCLA (beat Cal, Stanford, Washington, Washington St) [+]
13. Missouri (beat Ole Miss and Arkansas; lost to Georgia and South Carolina) [+]
14. Texas A&M (beat Alabama, LSU, Vanderbilt) [+]
15. Rutgers (lost to Nebraska, Penn St, Indiana) [––]
16. Georgia (beat Auburn, Missouri, Florida) [++]​

I have also put the following notations in brackets to summarize each team's performance since Jan. 16 (the latest date reflected in the Jan. 18 reveal):

+ denotes a team that has improved its resume since the 1st reveal (++ significantly so)
x denotes a team that has neither improved nor lessened its resume
– denotes a team that has somewhat lessened its resume (–– significantly so)​

Thus I am predicting the following for the committee's top 16 reveal on Thursday*:

1. UConn
2. Mississippi State
3. Louisville
4. Notre Dame (+2)
   
5. Oregon (–1)
   
6. South Carolina (+2)
   
7. Baylor (+2)
   
8. Tennessee (–3)
9. Texas (–2)
10. Florida State (+1)
11. UCLA (+1)
12. Georgia (+4)
13. Missouri
    
14. Texas A&M
    
15. Ohio State (–5)
16. Michigan (previously unranked)

Dropped out: Rutgers
* If this week's 2nd reveal follows the pattern of the 1st one, only games through Tues., Jan. 30 will be reflected.​

 

[LoTrader]

I like the top 4, but Tennessee shouldn't even be in top 16--they have just been terrible. I also don't think Ohio State should be in the top 16. Maybe Maryland or Oregon State will get in the top 16.

 

[shizam]

Sure seems like last year had a lot more stronger teams. I’m not seeing as many real strong teams this year. Some good teams but not many real good. Last years ND team would kill this years. Last years Baylor team would beat this years.

 

[Plebe]

I like the top 4, but Tennessee shouldn't even be in top 16--they have just been terrible. I also don't think Ohio State should be in the top 16. Maybe Maryland or Oregon State will get in the top 16.

If Tennessee was #5 in the first reveal — which was *after* their loss to Texas A&M — they're certainly not dropping out of the top 16 right now. Their losses to Notre Dame and Mississippi State would not even be viewed as "bad" losses by the committee. Only the loss to LSU significantly dings their resume. Their overall resume at this point is pretty much neck-and-neck with Texas'.

I think Maryland has a shot at a top 16 placement, but I don't think Oregon State does. The Beavers only have 2 wins over the RPI top 50 (compared to Ohio State's six top-50 wins), and their weak strength of schedule is weighing down their RPI severely (currently #38). The win over Oregon was huge for them, but I don't think it'll be enough to overcome an otherwise blah resume. At this point there are at least six teams ahead of them in the line for the final hosting spot.

 

[LoTrader]

If Tennessee was #5 in the first reveal — which was *after* their loss to Texas A&M — they're certainly not dropping out of the top 16 right now. Their losses to Notre Dame and Mississippi State would not even be viewed as "bad" losses by the committee. Only the loss to LSU significantly dings their resume. Their overall resume at this point is pretty much neck-and-neck with Texas'.

I think Maryland has a shot at a top 16 placement, but I don't think Oregon State does. The Beavers only have 2 wins over the RPI top 50 (compared to Ohio State's six top-50 wins), and their weak strength of schedule is weighing down their RPI severely (currently #38). The win over Oregon was huge for them, but I don't think it'll be enough to overcome an otherwise blah resume. At this point there are at least six teams ahead of them in the line for the final hosting spot.

Preseason rankings are the bugaboo (in all NCAA sports). I really don't think there should be any preseason rankings. Not until we are 30%+ through the season should any rankings be released. It happens just about every year in NCAA Football with the top 10 preseason football rankings being dominated by SEC teams. Where you start in the preseason rankings has a lot to do with your seeding later on whether we are talking football bowl games, or, NCAA Women's Top 16 Reveal. In any case, it is the final TOP 16 Reveal that matters.

 

[jaundicedeye]

Sure seems like last year had a lot more stronger teams. I’m not seeing as many real strong teams this year. Some good teams but not many real good. Last years ND team would kill this years. Last years Baylor team would beat this years.

Agree with you about Notre Dame being stronger last year but I think this year's Baylor squad is significantly better and is jelled and playing better together. The two posts on the floor at the same time is formidable.

 

[Plebe]

Preseason rankings are the bugaboo (in all NCAA sports). I really don't think there should be any preseason rankings. Not until we are 30%+ through the season should any rankings be released. It happens just about every year in NCAA Football with the top 10 preseason football rankings being dominated by SEC teams. Where you start in the preseason rankings has a lot to do with your seeding later on whether we are talking football bowl games, or, NCAA Women's Top 16 Reveal. In any case, it is the final TOP 16 Reveal that matters.

So are you saying the preseason rankings per se influence the committee's selection and seeding decisions? I really don't think that's the case.

Rutgers was on nobody's top 25 radar in the preseason, but they were ranked #15 in the committee's first reveal.

 

[shizam]

Agree with you about Notre Dame being stronger last year but I think this year's Baylor squad is significantly better and is jelled and playing better together. The two posts on the floor at the same time is formidable.

Really, A. Jones, A Prince and M. Davis? I’ll take them over upgraded Cox. Respect your opinion though.

 

[LoTrader]

So are you saying the preseason rankings per se influence the committee's selection and seeding decisions? I really don't think that's the case.

Rutgers was on nobody's top 25 radar in the preseason, but they were ranked #15 in the committee's first reveal.

Yes, but specifically what I am saying is that the preseason rankings (before one game is played) places some teams in a very favorable position to remain highly ranked even with terrible losses, while others have to climb the ranking ladder having to make far fewer missteps.. You can always find an outlier, i.e., Rutgers, if you look hard enough. Rutgers just happens to be in what I consider to be the most overrated in NCAA WBB conference in 2017-18 season.

 

[Plebe]

Yes, but specifically what I am saying is that the preseason rankings (before one game is played) places some teams in a very favorable position to remain highly ranked even with terrible losses, while others have to climb the ranking ladder having to make far fewer missteps.. You can always find an outlier, i.e., Rutgers, if you look hard enough. Rutgers just happens to be in what I consider to be the most overrated in NCAA WBB conference in 2017-18 season.

I'll agree that the preseason rankings (i.e. polls) exert influence over the *polls* throughout the season, but I see no evidence that the polls influence the selection committee. There have been many instances where their selection and seeding decisions have run contrary to the polls.

 

[Plebe]

Will be interesting to see if the committee considered yesterday's results in today's reveal. If they did, I think Baylor might be as high as #6 today.

 

[Plebe]

Wow at Maryland vaulting into the rankings at #13. And Ohio State fell completely out.

Another mild wow at the committee dropping Tennessee from #5 to #11 in just two weeks' time. Didn't think they would fall quite that much.

Otherwise my picks were pretty good.

 

[nwhoopfan]

Will Baylor fans be content w/ the upward movement, or will they still be pissed because they aren't projected as a #1 seed?

 

[DallasBUFan]

Will Baylor fans be content w/ the upward movement, or will they still be pissed because they aren't projected as a #1 seed?

I'm cool with it. We wouldn't face UConn or Miss State until Final 4 or Championship.

 

[Bear11]

Will Baylor fans be content w/ the upward movement, or will they still be pissed because they aren't projected as a #1 seed?

I didn't expect to be a 1 seed at this point, so I'm fine with the upward movement we see here. However, should Baylor win out, I expect to be a 1 seed. I'm not sure they can justify keeping us behind 3 loss Oregon or the loser between Louisville and Notre Dame should Baylor finish 31-1. At that point we would have 11 top 25 wins, with the only loss under less than ideal circumstances. Fingers crossed....

 

[easttexastrash]

Will Baylor fans be content w/ the upward movement, or will they still be pissed because they aren't projected as a #1 seed?

Im not sure which Baylor fans were pissed. I said point blank on the BY that I was fine with the seeding based on the OOC schedule. I am fine with a 2 seed and will be throughout the end of the season. Some 3 and 1 seed are going to hate to see Baylor in their region.

 

[easttexastrash]

Let it be known that the Baylor fans are OK with the seeding and officially not pissed.

 

[easttexastrash]

If the committee wants to make the ultimate statement about OOC schedule they will put Baylor in UCONN’s region. Baylor should receive the ultimate punishment.

 

[Canuck]

I wondered how long it would take before Baylor was brought up...I guess I owe my other Boneyarders in the betting pool a beer as I was off by 15 minutes.

 

[easttexastrash]

I wondered how long it would take before Baylor was brought up...I guess I owe my other Boneyarders in the betting pool a beer as I was off by 15 minutes.

Make note that a Baylor fan did not bring up Baylor. We just took the bait.

 

[easttexastrash]

I wondered how long it would take before Baylor was brought up...I guess I owe my other Boneyarders in the betting pool a beer as I was off by 15 minutes.

Baylor seemed to have come up a lot on the broadcast during the UCONN vs SC game. It would seem that Kara, Lobo, Kanders and what’s-her-name seem to think Baylor is the number 2 team in the nation and the one with the best chance of knocking off UCONN.

Reveal be damned!

 

[nwhoopfan]

It was my fault. Guilty as charged.

 

[easttexastrash]

It was my fault. Guilty as charged.

And thank you. I was trying to figure out how to inject Baylor into the conversation.

 

[HuskyFan1125]

3 of the top 16 seeds have already been upset.

Florida State gets beat by unranked NC State.

Purdue beats Michigan in OT.

LSU beats Georgia.

Committee has some work to do.

 

[nwhoopfan]

3 of the top 16 seeds have already been upset.

Florida State gets beat by unranked NC State.

Purdue beats Michigan in OT.

LSU beats Georgia.

Committee has some work to do.

Seems like something similar happened after the first reveal as well. It's only a snapshot of where things stand right, a bunch of games left to play and there will probably be a fair bit of movement in the top 16 seeds between now and the only reveal that really matters.

 

[Plebe]

Let it be known that the Baylor fans are OK with the seeding and officially not pissed.

Hilarious. You're officially not pissed, yet you'll be sure to kvetch at every opportunity between now and the next reveal.

 

[Plebe]

If the committee wants to make the ultimate statement about OOC schedule they will put Baylor in UCONN’s region. Baylor should receive the ultimate punishment.

If the committee has paid any attention the past two years, they'll realize that Baylor's weak schedule is self-punishing because they have repeatedly shown up in the Elite 8 unprepared.

 

[Plebe]

3 of the top 16 seeds have already been upset.

Florida State gets beat by unranked NC State.

Purdue beats Michigan in OT.

LSU beats Georgia.

Committee has some work to do.

Upsets are a healthy thing. Women's basketball needs more of them. These upsets were mild by comparison to what we see in the men's game.

Those three winning teams may be unranked but they are each likely to earn at-large bids.

 

[Plebe]

Potential regional placement of the top 16 teams (overall seeding in parentheses):

Albany:
1 UConn (1)
2 South Carolina (8)
3 Texas (9)
4 Texas A&M (16)

Spokane:
1 Notre Dame (4)
2 Oregon (5)
3 Georgia (12)
4 Maryland (13)

Lexington:
1 Louisville (3)
2 Baylor (6)
3 Tennessee (11)
4 Michigan (15)

Kansas City:
1 Mississippi St (2)
2 Florida St (7)
3 UCLA (10)
4 Missouri (14)

The placement of the #1 and #2 seeds is pretty straightforward. And the only potential caveat on the #3 seeds is whether Texas would be placed in UConn's region for the 3rd time in 4 years.

The placement of the #4 seeds gets messy because inevitably some SEC teams have to be put in the same region. (Normally the committee would separate conference foes who are top-4 seeds, but this isn't possible since the SEC has 6 teams among the top 16 overall.) But I do believe that the committee would love to put Missouri in Kansas City for geographic proximity, even if it means they might play Miss St in the Sweet 16.

How delicious would these matchups be:

• Baylor-Tennessee in the Sweet 16
• Baylor-Louisville in the Elite 8 (their first meeting since the 2013 mega-upset)

 

[Bear11]

Potential regional placement of the top 16 teams (overall seeding in parentheses):

Albany:
1 UConn (1)
2 South Carolina (8)
3 Texas (9)
4 Texas A&M (16)

Spokane:
1 Notre Dame (4)
2 Oregon (5)
3 Georgia (12)
4 Maryland (13)

Lexington:
1 Louisville (3)
2 Baylor (6)
3 Tennessee (11)
4 Michigan (15)

Kansas City:
1 Mississippi St (2)
2 Florida St (7)
3 UCLA (10)
4 Missouri (14)

The placement of the #1 and #2 seeds is pretty straightforward. And the only potential caveat on the #3 seeds is whether Texas would be placed in UConn's region for the 3rd time in 4 years.

The placement of the #4 seeds gets messy because inevitably some SEC teams have to be put in the same region. (Normally the committee would separate conference foes who are top-4 seeds, but this isn't possible since the SEC has 6 teams among the top 16 overall.) But I do believe that the committee would love to put Missouri in Kansas City for geographic proximity, even if it means they might play Miss St in the Sweet 16.

How delicious would these matchups be:

• Baylor-Tennessee in the Sweet 16
• Baylor-Louisville in the Elite 8 (their first meeting since the 2013 mega-upset)

For the record, Baylor played (and demolished) Louisville in the Sweet Sixteen last year. But I would welcome a rematch.