Looking ahead to Thursday's top-16 reveal #2

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#27
If the committee wants to make the ultimate statement about OOC schedule they will put Baylor in UCONN’s region. Baylor should receive the ultimate punishment.
If the committee has paid any attention the past two years, they'll realize that Baylor's weak schedule is self-punishing because they have repeatedly shown up in the Elite 8 unprepared.
 
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#28
3 of the top 16 seeds have already been upset.

Florida State gets beat by unranked NC State.

Purdue beats Michigan in OT.

LSU beats Georgia.

Committee has some work to do.
Upsets are a healthy thing. Women's basketball needs more of them. These upsets were mild by comparison to what we see in the men's game.

Those three winning teams may be unranked but they are each likely to earn at-large bids.
 
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#29
Potential regional placement of the top 16 teams (overall seeding in parentheses):

Albany:
1 UConn (1)
2 South Carolina (8)
3 Texas (9)
4 Texas A&M (16)

Spokane:
1 Notre Dame (4)
2 Oregon (5)
3 Georgia (12)
4 Maryland (13)

Lexington:
1 Louisville (3)
2 Baylor (6)
3 Tennessee (11)
4 Michigan (15)

Kansas City:
1 Mississippi St (2)
2 Florida St (7)
3 UCLA (10)
4 Missouri (14)

The placement of the #1 and #2 seeds is pretty straightforward. And the only potential caveat on the #3 seeds is whether Texas would be placed in UConn's region for the 3rd time in 4 years.

The placement of the #4 seeds gets messy because inevitably some SEC teams have to be put in the same region. (Normally the committee would separate conference foes who are top-4 seeds, but this isn't possible since the SEC has 6 teams among the top 16 overall.) But I do believe that the committee would love to put Missouri in Kansas City for geographic proximity, even if it means they might play Miss St in the Sweet 16.

How delicious would these matchups be:
  • Baylor-Tennessee in the Sweet 16
  • Baylor-Louisville in the Elite 8 (their first meeting since the 2013 mega-upset)
 
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#30
Potential regional placement of the top 16 teams (overall seeding in parentheses):

Albany:
1 UConn (1)
2 South Carolina (8)
3 Texas (9)
4 Texas A&M (16)

Spokane:
1 Notre Dame (4)
2 Oregon (5)
3 Georgia (12)
4 Maryland (13)

Lexington:
1 Louisville (3)
2 Baylor (6)
3 Tennessee (11)
4 Michigan (15)

Kansas City:
1 Mississippi St (2)
2 Florida St (7)
3 UCLA (10)
4 Missouri (14)

The placement of the #1 and #2 seeds is pretty straightforward. And the only potential caveat on the #3 seeds is whether Texas would be placed in UConn's region for the 3rd time in 4 years.

The placement of the #4 seeds gets messy because inevitably some SEC teams have to be put in the same region. (Normally the committee would separate conference foes who are top-4 seeds, but this isn't possible since the SEC has 6 teams among the top 16 overall.) But I do believe that the committee would love to put Missouri in Kansas City for geographic proximity, even if it means they might play Miss St in the Sweet 16.

How delicious would these matchups be:
  • Baylor-Tennessee in the Sweet 16
  • Baylor-Louisville in the Elite 8 (their first meeting since the 2013 mega-upset)
For the record, Baylor played (and demolished) Louisville in the Sweet Sixteen last year. But I would welcome a rematch.
 
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#31
For the record, Baylor played (and demolished) Louisville in the Sweet Sixteen last year. But I would welcome a rematch.
Oops. Shows how much attention I was paying during the second weekend of the tourney last year.
(I have a good excuse. Had a death in the family and was attending funeral.)

Would still be a fun game.
 

triaddukefan

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#32
Keep a eye on those pack of wolves down in Raleigh. Good chance they will be 23-5 (12-3 in conference) heading into the regular season finale @ND. Wes Moore is a good coach.
 
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#33
Upsets are a healthy thing. Women's basketball needs more of them. These upsets were mild by comparison to what we see in the men's game.

Those three winning teams may be unranked but they are each likely to earn at-large bids.[/QUOTEIn my view, none of these losses surprised me. In the SEC, Missouri is midd
Upsets are a healthy thing. Women's basketball needs more of them. These upsets were mild by comparison to what we see in the men's game.

Those three winning teams may be unranked but they are each likely to earn at-large bids.
"Mild" at best. No surprise with the losses by Florida State, Michigan, Georgia. All three of these teams will be ranked lower by the next reveal. I would add Texas A&M, and, Tennessee into this statement.
 

southie

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#34
So, here is the updated RPI:

Rating Percentage Index (RPI) Live 2017-2018 Women's College Basketball - WarrenNolan.com

We know the committee places a huge emphasis on RPI rankings. So, what am I missing with Ohio State not being in the committee's Top 16 on Thursday?

And, how was South Carolina at #7 by the committee, but the RPI ranked them at #17 prior to Thursday's rankings (and they are now at #20)?

NC State seems very undervalued, and I'm not sure why.
 

southie

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#36
Michigan has dropped all the way down to #44 in RPI; that's approaching bubble status.

One of Mizzou or A&M should remain as a top 16 seed, IMO.
 
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#37
Michigan has dropped all the way down to #44 in RPI; that's approaching bubble status.

One of Mizzou or A&M should remain as a top 16 seed, IMO.

Michigan got snubbed last year but if they collapse, it is there own fault. Played poorly against MSU but still had a chance at the end but ran some horrible plays.
 

DefenseBB

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#38
Michigan got snubbed last year but if they collapse, it is there own fault. Played poorly against MSU but still had a chance at the end but ran some horrible plays.
Apologies ahead of the rebuttal- NO FREAKIN WAY should a second Big10 Team be given a top 16 seed! If you want to say that their parity has 6/7 teams to be warranted within the 64 Tourney participants, I will tolerate that. But to say anyone other than Maryland should host a game- you need to go see a therapist.

The full lot of tOSU, MSU, Mich, Neb, Iowa, Purdue all belong in the 20-45 ranges at best. The conference SOS calculation needs to be reconfigured as parity does not mean strength. Just because the SEC bottom dwellers are worse than the Big10's does not mean SEC is inferior to the Big10. Same for the ACC and PAC12. Give me star power! Think about it, who wants to watch a Washington Wizards vs. Oklahoma City Thunder NBA Championship game? Two good teams but yuk...

Aaarrrrgggghhhh!!!
 
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#39
Apologies ahead of the rebuttal- NO FREAKIN WAY should a second Big10 Team be given a top 16 seed! If you want to say that their parity has 6/7 teams to be warranted within the 64 Tourney participants, I will tolerate that. But to say anyone other than Maryland should host a game- you need to go see a therapist.

The full lot of tOSU, MSU, Mich, Neb, Iowa, Purdue all belong in the 20-45 ranges at best. The conference SOS calculation needs to be reconfigured as parity does not mean strength. Just because the SEC bottom dwellers are worse than the Big10's does not mean SEC is inferior to the Big10. Same for the ACC and PAC12. Give me star power! Think about it, who wants to watch a Washington Wizards vs. Oklahoma City Thunder NBA Championship game? Two good teams but yuk...

Aaarrrrgggghhhh!!!

Never thought top 16. I was talking about making the tournament. Last year, they were on the bubble at 22-9 and 11-5 (3rd) in conference and the Big 10 was propoerly punished but I am just pointing out a similar scenario.
 
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#40
So @Plebe What do you think now? Mizzou, TAMU, and Michigan are in danger of falling out of hosting.
I think those last four or five hosting spots are very tenuous, and there can be a lot of movement in those spots just in the next week before the final reveal.

The thing is, even though those three teams have lost lately, there's not exactly a bunch of teams beating down the door to take their place. Teams in the 12-to-25 range all have of a lot of weaknesses in their resumes.
 

triaddukefan

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#41
I think those last four or five hosting spots are very tenuous, and there can be a lot of movement in those spots just in the next week before the final reveal.

The thing is, even though those three teams have lost lately, there's not exactly a bunch of teams beating down the door to take their place. Teams in the 12-to-25 range all have of a lot of weaknesses in their resumes.
If Duke can find a way to win Thursday and Monday.... then they can slip into the top 16. Some of the teams ahead of them on the list have a few tough games as well.
 
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#42
If Duke can find a way to win Thursday and Monday.... then they can slip into the top 16. Some of the teams ahead of them on the list have a few tough games as well.
A win over Florida State would be huge for Duke, but it won't be reflected in that night's reveal.
 
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#44
Well actually i was meaning on selection Monday.
The teams in those last 4-5 spots of the top 16 have been losing a lot of games. Duke is most certainly in the mix. A win over FSU would be big, but of course a lot depends on how well other teams do between now and selection day.
 
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