Looking Ahead. Three Different Scripts. Same Result.

[Sphinx]

Nothing new here. Just a summary of possibilities. What's interesting is that they all yield the same positive result.

1. If UConn wins all future home games, loses all future road games.

Result: They finish regular season 18-13. (9-9 in conference)

2. If UConn wins all games in which they currently have the higher KenPom rating, loses all games in which they currently have the lower KenPom rating.

Result: They finish regular season 18-13. (9-9 in conference)

3. Repeat of #2, allowing 4 points for home court.

Result: UConn finishes regular season 18-13. (9-9 in conference)

These results are interesting on several scores. First, they yield the same W-L records although the scenarios involve beating different teams and losing to different teams. Second, they are all, to a large extent, projections of what has happened so far. To that extent, they establish not a best case scenario but a baseline of sorts, confirmed by three different extrapolations. With any improvement at all, 19 or 20 wins comes into the picture. I offer it as a bit of positive input for those still open to positive input (and not too rigorous in their standard of mathematical proof).

 

[Dream Jobbed 2.0]

That’s an NIT year which yard curmudgeons predicted in October would’ve been “optimistic.” Same posters will now say it’s a disappointment.

 

[UCDaveD]

I’d sign for NIT right now. Tournament experience for the Pups is never a bad thing.

 

[willie99]

Based on their play in 2020, that's optimistic. I have mostly soured, but there's a chance

4 keys to exceeding my downsized expectations

1) Gilbert has to stop with the silly turnovers, many of them called "missed shots"

2) Akok Akok has to contribute on offense

3) Polley has to be the Tulane Polley

4) Carlton has to be the Indiana Carlton

We don't need all 4 in every game, just the biggest games

We need 3 out of 4 in most games

We can survive with 2 out of 4 in some games

Everyone else just has to remain consistent, with Book being a potential game changer

 

[willie99]

In the Calhoun days, I wouldn't even worry about them jelling for another month. But those days are too far behind us to see them in the rear view mirror

 

[jibsey]

I just looked in the mirror and you know what I saw? A curmudgeon.

 

[JustbrewitMan]

You forgot “QED” at the end of your post...

 

[Ts5034]

I’d sign for NIT right now. Tournament experience for the Pups is never a bad thing.

Considering its been four years since we’ve played basketball after the conference tournament, I would sign up for the NIT right now as well. Its all about perspective. Yes, it absolutely stinks that if we miss the NCAA Tournament it would be four years in a row on the outside looking in. At the same time, an NIT berth would be a step in the right direction. These last 3 years have been long off seasons since it was all over whenever we lost in the AAC Tournament.

 

[AZHuskiePop]

It’s never smart predicting an NCAA bid . I made a living at forecasting and I don’t do it.
18 wins might make or 22 might not
The variables are just too great and many outcomes that effect you are out of your control. Enough about tournaments. Just win and let the chips fall where they may.
This team as they are currently playing will be hard pressed to go 9-9.
I would take that .in a heartbeat but with some regret .
The caveats to that statement is there are factors than can give this team a kick upward within its grasp.
1. Akok lost in the joy of his defense and rebounding are his pitiful to date offense
On some teams it wouldn’t be as big problem but on an offensively challenged one like ours your have to get at least double figures from your PF. Preferably 2-3, threes per game. He is an absolute game changer If he takes off
2. Bouknight has also to be able to be the man especially from the three.
With Akok and Bouknight hitting threes the seams in the defense widen allowing
easier penetration from our guards and Carlton to get the ball in better position to score . Whether he starts or not is irrelevant. I don’t think Ray started many games but he averaged around 20 a game anyway.
If that happens soon than 11-7 or better is a possibility if not than 7-11 is more likely
They also have to play that relentless defense they have gotten away from. But getting stops only to have empty trips is an intensity killer. Unfortunately these kids are human that’s why not only does these two stepping up help offensively but it keeps the defensive fire burning .

 

[uconnbill]

They have to play with intensity and play smart. No stupid plays from the upperclassmen and continued improvement from the youngsters

 

[Kitaman]

You guys are impressively smart and analytical.

As for me I just want to see more scoring, less turnovers and much more aggression. I will add it would be nice to discover a go-to scorer who can get easily give us 20 points (on any given night) and come through in clutch situations (e.g. dagger shots). It does look like we might just have a potential AA candidate in a couple of years.

Anyways, its practically mid-season and this team is still in transition and rebuilding. We still have no identity, consistency, unison and or on court leadership is not visible. We just block shots really well. It probably ain't worth spending a lot of brain power on. I'll just enjoy what I can and look for signs of the ship turning in the right direction. The NIT would not be a horrible thing with this squad.

 

[coachn]

The blocking shot thing esp. A A and JB will be a big factor from here on.