Little/no movement in Dec 18 AP Top 25

[vaeman]

And here's some head-scratching logic (courtesy of @ bueckerszone on twitter):

Alexis Cubit - Louisville Courier Has UConn 20 and Louisville at 16
Andy Yamashita - LV Review has UConn 22 behind both UNC and Louisville
Emily Adams - Greenville News has UConn below Louisville
Jeff Linder - Cedar Rapids Gazette has UConn below Louisville
Kelly Gramlich - ACC Network has UConn 3 spots below Louisville
Michael Katz - has UConn at 20 Few spots below Louisville
Mitchell Northam - WUNC has UConn a spot below 4 loss unc
PJ Brown - AZ Daily Star has UConn at 22 below both unc and Louisville
Percy Allen - UConn unranked
Sabrena Merchant - Atheistic has UConn at 19. 4 SPOTS below Louisville
Sam McKewon - has UConn 3 spots below Louisville
Stefan Krajisnik - has UConn 4 spots below Louisville
Stu Durando - has UConn a spot below Louisville

Apparently these are all from last week and AP hasn't updated ...

 

[Plebe]

Since Marquette beat Creighton, why is Creighton ranked and Marquette is not?

Marquette is #18 in the AP poll; Creighton is #21.

 

[Bone Dog]

Its so early in the year, doubt many of the voters are really paying attention yet. Likely a bit of a hangover effect based on the NC State, UCLA and Texas games. UConn losing was a major sports story many writers, no matter their thoughts on UConn, jumped on as click bait. Bet most voters have not seen UConn play this year and their main input is coming from these stories.

This sounds exactly right to me. Does it seem different from last season with regards to other teams? I mean Kim games the system early on and remained at the top of the polls until practically March. Has the sports world caught on to this? Also NET doesn’t seem so far off now.

 

[Plebe]

Just a salutary reminder that the polls have zero impact on NCAA Tournament seedings. As long as the team continues its current trajectory of improvement, and provided we continue to collect top 50 wins and perform well overall, the metrics that the selection committee uses will work in our favor.

 

[Zarathustra]

Wow....while everyone literally plays crap teams. The UConn hate is real..

Once the BIG 12 undefeated teams start playing each other there will
be multiple teams ahead of UCONN piling up losses!

 

[MilfordHusky]

Last week, we had 343 points and were 48 points behind #16 Va. Tech. This week, we have 369 points and are 2 points behind #16 Indiana and 9 points behind #15 Va. Tech.

The highest ranked team with 1 loss is Iowa, #4. The highest ranked team with 2 losses is Utah, #11. The highest ranked team with 3 losses is UConn. The highest ranked team with 4 losses is UNC, #24.

 

[CTyankee]

Ummm... Who cares how they are ranked today... Eye Candy only...

Let the games unfold. We are going to be "there" at the end.

I trust in Geno, his coaches, and his players...

 

[Bone Dog]

If #13 tOSU gets crushed by UCLA, which looks to be happening, how far should they fall in the polls? They'll have an embarrassing loss to USC, a good win against a fading Tennessee w/o Rickea, and then this drubbing from UCLA in an otherwise cupcake schedule. Certainly somewhere around #20, right?

And what exactly is USC doing in the top 20? They stunned an unprepared tOSU. But otherwise, they've done nothing and are very likely to get hammered in conference. Their best win besides the surprise against tOSU is against Seton Hall.

 

[nwhoopfan]

If #13 tOSU gets crushed by UCLA, which looks to be happening, how far should they fall in the polls? They'll have an embarrassing loss to USC, a good win against a fading Tennessee w/o Rickea, and then this drubbing from UCLA in an otherwise cupcake schedule. Certainly somewhere around #20, right?

And what exactly is USC doing in the top 20? They stunned an unprepared tOSU. But otherwise, they've done nothing and are very likely to get hammered in conference. Their best win besides the surprise against tOSU is against Seton Hall.

With a big comeback to make it close, can tOSU stay in the Top 25 now?

 

[Plebe]

If #13 tOSU gets crushed by UCLA, which looks to be happening, how far should they fall in the polls? They'll have an embarrassing loss to USC, a good win against a fading Tennessee w/o Rickea, and then this drubbing from UCLA in an otherwise cupcake schedule. Certainly somewhere around #20, right?

Just wondering: By what criteria do you consider Ohio State's loss to USC “embarrassing”?

 

[Bone Dog]

With a big comeback to make it close, can tOSU stay in the Top 25 now?

Yes, they made it respectable. Good on them, and especially Jacy, who is a personal favorite!

 

[Bone Dog]

Just wondering: By what criteria do you consider Ohio State's loss to USC “embarrassing”?

On the criterion that USC isn't a very good team. Watkins caught them by surprise, but the rest of the team is not very good. The tOSU that played today would have routed them. Perhaps you think USC is better than I do. If so, make your case.

 

[nwhoopfan]

Okay, I'll bite. USC went 11-7 in conference last year and made the Tourney. They added Watkins of course, who has every bit lived up to the hype so far, plus several solid grad transfers. Rayah Marshall is a pro prospect. I can't remember who they lost from last year, probably several key players, but I think it's pretty easy to believe they are better this year.

 

[Plebe]

On the criterion that USC isn't a very good team. Watkins caught them by surprise, but the rest of the team is not very good. The tOSU that played today would have routed them. Perhaps you think USC is better than I do. If so, make your case.

I would say the jury is still out on them, as it is on many, many teams. Your narrative strikes me as one for which supporting data are lacking. But when you say “not very good,” do you mean not a top 25 team? Not in the top 50? Outside the top 100?

USC led OSU by 18 at the half, and then OSU outscored them 30-10 in 3Q to take the lead. So if in fact Watkins “caught them by surprise,” the surprise seems to have been dispelled by the second half. Nonetheless, USC recovered to win by 9.

I did notice USC very narrowly beat Penn State in the Bahamas, but Penn State also took Ohio State to overtime at Columbus. Hard to know what to make of these scant, often disparate, data points.

Watkins is clearly the breakout star, but I also wouldn't sleep on players like Rayah Marshall, McKenzie Forbes, and Kayla Padilla. We won't have to wonder about USC much longer, as they'll play UCLA twice in their first 4 conference games, and then they travel to Utah and Colorado after that.

 

[Bone Dog]

I would say the jury is still out on them, as it is on many, many teams. Your narrative strikes me as one for which supporting data are lacking. But when you say “not very good,” do you mean not a top 25 team? Not in the top 50? Outside the top 100?

USC led OSU by 18 at the half, and then OSU outscored them 30-10 in 3Q to take the lead. So if in fact Watkins “caught them by surprise,” the surprise seems to have been dispelled by the second half. Nonetheless, USC recovered to win by 9.

I did notice USC very narrowly beat Penn State in the Bahamas, but Penn State also took Ohio State to overtime at Columbus. Hard to know what to make of these scant, often disparate, data points.

Watkins is clearly the breakout star, but I also wouldn't sleep on players like Rayah Marshall, McKenzie Forbes, and Kayla Padilla. We won't have to wonder about USC much longer, as they'll play UCLA twice in their first 4 conference games, and then they travel to Utah and Colorado after that.

I agree, by and large. The jury is still out on them. I meant not a top-20 team, as I said above. But it's understandable that they got a decent ranking early on given the win over tOSU, despite their mediocre SoS. It's not the worst, at #48, but it doesn't give me a lot of confidence about their future.

You make a good point about the 3rd quarter comeback. I saw it a little differently, though. It seemed to me that tOSU exhausted themselves in that effort, and USC had gotten a little complacent. That's why (I think) they were able to take the lead back in the 4th. What I take away from the game is that tOSU was indeed surprised by the first half and weren't able to really overcome the deficit despite the comeback. As they say in football, or boxing, they got punched in the face, and managed to punch back. But they were still vulnerable to the last punch USC still had in their arsenal. [I may have mixed that metaphor. Sorry.]

I also agree that Marshall should be able to support Watkins well as the season goes on. But I also see the same upcoming schedule you do. Nothing would tickle me more than to see them upset UCLA, but I doubt very much this will happen. I expect they'll end up with at least 7 losses in conference [to UCLA Colorado Utah and Colorado], and maybe more if Oregon St, Washington, or Arizona surprises them. Those last three look to me like their natural equals. Watkins is great, no doubt. She might thump Oregon St or Washington all by herself. But their margin for error looks quite small to me.

So here's the problem for me -- as you say, the data points are scant, and I am also thinking of where they might end up, not where they are now. Polls have this ambiguity -- do they reflect current reality or potential? I'm trying to navigate this ambiguity as best I can, and I may not have gotten it just right. But I think USC will not get past the 2nd round of the tournamentment, and could fall out even sooner. This estimation, such as it is, informs my thinking about their ranking. The bright spot is that they'll get to the tournament at all.