Lindy's preseason top 25

[VAUConnFan]

How do they leave off the 2nd best center in all of college bball?

Because she is probably, at best, third best right now. It is yet to be seen how well our center plays with her toned, slimmed down body.

 

[VAUConnFan]

Lots of very interesting subplots. The main plot: Can anyone beat Baylor, or will they push the winning streak to 80 or so?

What helps Baylor is that they play defense. There will be nights when the offense is not firing aand the defesne will have to keep it close. Close games usually go to the better team with the best player on the floor.

 

[doggydaddy]

Because she is probably, at best, third best right now. It is yet to be seen how well our center plays with her toned, slimmed down body.

You really think Stokes is better?

 

[doggydaddy]

What helps Baylor is that they play defense. There will be nights when the offense is not firing aand the defesne will have to keep it close. Close games usually go to the better team with the best player on the floor.

I agree. UConn is the best defensive team in WCBB.

 

[Phil]

Your premise assumes that the RPI is perfectly correlated with the strength of the teams. It is not. Nor is it designed to be.

False argument.

I agree it is imperfect. I've been singing that tune for years. But it is a measure, and it was handy. FTR, I think Georgia is aperfect example of why it is flawed. IIRC, theri schedule was one I looked at that seemed designed to bolster their RPI, so if anything #25 overstates their strength.

 

[Vowelguy]

I agree it is imperfect. I've been singing that tune for years. But it is a measure, and it was handy. FTR, I think Georgia is aperfect example of why it is flawed. IIRC, theri schedule was one I looked at that seemed designed to bolster their RPI, so if anything #25 overstates their strength.

The RPI is not a power rating. Using it as such is incorrect. Trying to draw inferences on that basis is meaningless.

 

[Phil]

The RPI is not a power rating. Using it as such is incorrect. Trying to draw inferences on that basis is meaningless.

No, it isn't.

This isn't a peer-reviewed statistical paper, it is a fan forum. I acknowledged the deficiencies of the RPI, I've written on then at length. Lighten up.

 

[Vowelguy]

Saying the RPI has deficiencies as a power rating is like saying a Honda Accord has deficiencies as a flying machine. Neither are designed for that function, so why attempt to use them in that way?

 

[KnightBridgeAZ]

Saying the RPI has deficiencies as a power rating is like saying a Honda Accord has deficiencies as a flying machine. Neither are designed for that function, so why attempt to use them in that way?

What would you like to use the RPI for? What would you like to use a true power rating for?

As a statistical measure, RPI places a team on a continuum. It can be manipulated - Rutgers and UConn have both taken advantage, intentionally or not, of its manipulability, although UConn less so as time has gone on. There have been articles written about how to schedule to favor your RPI (I have one from over 12 years ago written by a well known coach).

I agree with Phil re: Georgia, assuming his factual statements are correct (and I don't have time to check them). They probably had an inflated RPI and a seed inconsistent with their RPI (and there are studies out there about the correlation between seed and RPI, see Rutgers' own Beknighted each Spring).

Arguing about the true worth of the RPI is useless, it exists and is what it is.

 

[alexrgct]

I'm quite the proponent of Massey and Sagarin myself. Both had Georgia in the 29-33 range by season's end.

 

[Fightin Choke]

I'm quite the proponent of Massey and Sagarin myself. Both had Georgia in the 29-33 range by season's end.

Ah, but which Sagarin do you prefer: Predictor, ELO Chess, or the composite?

 

[alexrgct]

Ah, but which Sagarin do you prefer: Predictor, ELO Chess, or the composite?

One of life's great questions.

Sagarin himself prefers the predictor, and I'm sure he could provide scads of regression-based data to explain why.

However, for far less scientific reasons, I'm partial to the composite, simply because there is no perfect model, and thus having multiple models as inputs can be more instructive. Additionally, I think he overemphasizes MOV in his predictor while intentionally under emphasizing, actually excluding it, in ELO-Chess. The composite is a nice compromise.

 

[doggydaddy]

One of life's great questions.

Sagarin himself prefers the predictor, and I'm sure he could provide scads of regression-based data to explain why.

However, for far less scientific reasons, I'm partial to the composite, simply because there is no perfect model, and thus having multiple models as inputs can be more instructive. Additionally, I think he overemphasizes MOV in his predictor while intentionally under emphasizing, actually excluding it, in ELO-Chess. The composite is a nice compromise.

I like whichever one makes UConn look better.

 

[alexrgct]

I like whichever one makes UConn look better.

Predictor it is!

 

[Phil]

I'm quite the proponent of Massey and Sagarin myself. Both had Georgia in the 29-33 range by season's end.

That sounds more like where they belonged.

 

[Phil]

There's a lot of vigorous discussion about whether the Lindy's list has the right teams and whether the order makes sense.

I'd like to use the list to make a different point; accepting the list for the moment, let's see how the Top 25 breakdown by conference.

I provided the data at the following page (this time I remembered to change the share options)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AnpjvR_kW6qvdHpjTEd1YVdiX3JfRF84d04wRGlxaEE

but I'll summarize the count by conference, assuming I can keep track of the changes:

2 ACC
3 B10
6 B12
4 BE
1 CAA
1 Mountain West
2 Pac12
5 SEC
1 Sun Belt

Looks like the B12 is looking pretty strong.

 

[msf22b]

Going back to Alex and Doggy's discussion about the hypothetical Chris Dailey led team.
I think it is ranked too low
Might very well be a final four team; could even win it all in a post-Brit era.
Doesn't seem to have much in common (talent wise) with this season's UTenn aquad with the exception of the missing HOF coach.

 

[Tonyc]

Geno has built a machine. To lead Baylor by 11 at Baylor last season without going to the line til Baylor took the lead is s omething else. Now plug in our freshman this season and we're playing at UConn I like our chances alot. With that said the refs need to call fouls on Baylor this season. With that said there are a bunch of top 20 teams with alot of talent and not alot of chemistry. That aint gonna win a NC. I think we all pretty much agree its UConn and Baylor and everybody else this season. The presence of Breanna on the court with either Stef or Kiah is going to make them better. It will also give KML alot more open shots. Remeber this too especially early in the season. As good as Breanna is shes you cant expect more then she can give as she will be a freshman and she will make mistakes just like alot of other freshman. There is a learning curve for all freshman. She will be very good and surprise alot of fans.......... on both sides of the ball. Some of those surprises will be great plays and some of those surprises will be I cant beleive she did that. Its all a part of learning and adjusting to college ball.

 

[connboy77]

Geno has built a machine. To lead Baylor by 11 at Baylor last season without going to the line til Baylor took the lead is s omething else. Now plug in our freshman this season and we're playing at UConn I like our chances alot. With that said the refs need to call fouls on Baylor this season. With that said there are a bunch of top 20 teams with alot of talent and not alot of chemistry. That aint gonna win a NC. I think we all pretty much agree its UConn and Baylor and everybody else this season. The presence of Breanna on the court with either Stef or Kiah is going to make them better. It will also give KML alot more open shots. Remeber this too especially early in the season. As good as Breanna is shes you cant expect more then she can give as she will be a freshman and she will make mistakes just like alot of other freshman. There is a learning curve for all freshman. She will be very good and surprise alot of fans.......... on both sides of the ball. Some of those surprises will be great plays and some of those surprises will be I cant beleive she did that. Its all a part of learning and adjusting to college ball.

Upperclassmen make misstakes too and we all know that Breanna is already battle tested!

 

[jsloanjr]

UCONN plays 7 out of the top 9 teams and mostly at home.............OMG!!........

 

[jsloanjr]

UCONN plays 7 out of the top 9 teams and mostly at home.............OMG!!........

 

[triaddukefan]

^^^^

you can say that again

 

[Vowelguy]

From GoDuke.com:

Lindy’s Top 25
1. Baylor
2. Connecticut
3. Duke
4. Maryland
5. Stanford
6. Louisville
7. Kentucky
8. Penn State
9. Notre Dame
10. Delaware
11. Georgia
12. St. John’s
13. Oklahoma
14. California
15. Oklahoma State
16. West Virginia
17. Purdue
18. Texas A&M
19. Nebraska
20. Vanderbilt
21. Texas
22. Iowa State
23. Tennessee
24. Middle Tennessee
25. San Diego State

Lindys did pretty well -- 13 of their top 14 made the sweet 16. The others # 19 Nebraska, 23 Tenn, and Kansas.

 

[easttexastrash]

Lindys did pretty well -- 13 of their top 14 made the sweet 16. The others # 19 Nebraska, 23 Tenn, and Kansas.

I remember my post of "No Kansas?" They took UD down in the NCAA tourney and still got no love. And here they are, one of the last 16 standing.

 

[wire chief]

Exactly. Two monster teams. One other very talented team. Everyone else.

We said preseason that ND lost too much. How'd that work out?