Limits of One and Done Rosters | The Boneyard

Limits of One and Done Rosters

Joined
Aug 27, 2011
Messages
3,464
Reaction Score
10,607
98% of the time experience will trump talent... That's why you always see so many upsets in the tourney. Get a low-mid major with 5 seniors and it's common they'll be able to overcome superior talent. The amazing one-and-done recruiting classes of Duke and UK have only produced two titles by my count. The teams that they have lost to (ourselves included) won they had moxie, experience, and chemistry due to playing together. I'm not as big of a basher of Cal as most here, but he's right, in a sense, that they are only freshmen. Despite their great potential/talent/athleticism, they have not been through the wars that a junior or senior has.
 

polycom

I heard a beep, who just joined?
Joined
Nov 14, 2014
Messages
7,685
Reaction Score
14,498
This is why I am glad we don't have a coach that pushes one-and-done roster building. Arguably, Duke has won a championship twice since 2010 and Kentucky once but I feel neither (mainly Kentucky) have lived up to their pre-season hype in a long while.

Duke, Kentucky and the limits of one-and-done rosters

The hype is created for clicks and views it isn't about who is good at college basketball. Pre-season hype should be taken as meaningless. It's funny that ESPN is now pushing this article given how they pushed Trey Young this year and then how he did in the tourney.
 
Joined
Aug 25, 2011
Messages
13,764
Reaction Score
71,847
98% of the time experience will trump talent... That's why you always see so many upsets in the tourney.

If this were true they wouldn't be called upsets.

And most coaches say they'd prefer talent.

The phenomenon of the one and done is a bit more nuanced than people make it out to be.
 

ColchVEGAS

Still buckin like five, deuce, four, trey.
Joined
Apr 13, 2018
Messages
931
Reaction Score
3,118
The NBA needs to get rid of their rule and open up the draft for high schoolers again.

If you are of working age you should be able to pursue a career and if a team wants to take that risk let them. At the same time if a high schooler goes undrafter they should be allowed to go play in the NCAA so more Lenny Cooke situations do not happen.

It is a win all around for the NBA, NBDL, and NCAA.
 
Joined
Mar 19, 2015
Messages
2,985
Reaction Score
9,300
Agree that neither lives up to their preseason hype. Duke had the first, fifth, sixth, and eighth ranked recruits in 2017 along with an All-American Grayson Allen in their starting lineup and couldn't even make a Final Four. Kentucky started 5 top 35 guys and had 3 more off the bench and failed to make the Elite Eight even though they had a cake walk. Neither Squid or K are great coaches. They are good, not great coaches who can recruit better than everyone else.
 
Joined
Sep 18, 2011
Messages
4,991
Reaction Score
19,597
Point guard experience matters. Go back and look at the NCAA champs over the years and look at their point guards. Most are juniors or seniors. The one exception that I see was Kentucky in 2012.
 
Joined
Aug 29, 2011
Messages
4,241
Reaction Score
7,177
There's no hard and fast rule, need to factor in that the tournament is a one game outcome adding a random element. This argument isn't new to one-and done era, I recall a Michigan team with a lot of freshman making the title game.
 
Joined
Mar 19, 2015
Messages
2,985
Reaction Score
9,300
Congrats, you win the Boneyard Dumbest Take of the Year.

Explain to me how a coach can be considered great when he has 7+ McD AA's on the roster every year and can't make a Final Four.
 
Joined
Dec 19, 2014
Messages
1,551
Reaction Score
7,841
Explain to me how a coach can be considered great when he has 7+ McD AA's on the roster every year and can't make a Final Four.
Cal has been to 4 final fours, and an additional 2 elite eights in his 9 seasons at Kentucky. K has 5 rings.

????????????
 
Joined
Mar 19, 2015
Messages
2,985
Reaction Score
9,300
Cal has been to 4 final fours, and an additional 2 elite eights in his 9 seasons at Kentucky. K has 5 rings.

????????????

1 NC in 9 seasons is not good for the talent he pulls in. Also, 4 of 5 of K’s rings came from teams with veteran talent.
 
Joined
Dec 19, 2014
Messages
1,551
Reaction Score
7,841
1 NC in 9 seasons is not good for the talent he pulls in. Also, 4 of 5 of K’s rings came from teams with veteran talent.
So, because he won with "veteran talent" he's not a great coach as you said? Makes zero sense.
 
Joined
Sep 6, 2011
Messages
12,409
Reaction Score
65,965
Explain to me how a coach can be considered great when he has 7+ McD AA's on the roster every year and can't make a Final Four.

Coach K has had KenPom top 10 offenses 13 of the 17 years in the database, including the last 10 straight. UConn has 2 total and none in the last 10. He also had 8 top 10 defenses. UConn 5.

He's been to 12 Final Fours. 16 Elite 8s. He has gone to the Elite 8 every other year basically. He wins 75% of games... in the NCAA tournament (best win% among active coaches).
 
Joined
Mar 19, 2015
Messages
2,985
Reaction Score
9,300
So, because he won with "veteran talent" he's not a great coach as you said? Makes zero sense.

Not the point. I’m saying if he was a great coach he’d be winning NCs with the talent he has been getting the past few years.
 

intlzncster

i fart in your general direction
Joined
Aug 24, 2011
Messages
29,091
Reaction Score
60,514
You only win with talent, veteran or freshman. Both K and Cal have done it with both. But you don't do it all the time.

It's not like you can just roll out the most talented team and automatically win. There's other factors, like experience, like match ups, like luck, like simply laying an egg....etc.

The Tournament's rarely ever chalk.
 
Joined
Aug 26, 2011
Messages
9,343
Reaction Score
23,546
If this were true they wouldn't be called upsets.

And most coaches say they'd prefer talent.

The phenomenon of the one and done is a bit more nuanced than people make it out to be.

Yeah, as if the amount of upsets in the tournament could have to do with the fact that there are 32 games. I swear, this is the marketing genius of the tournament - throw enough teams into a pot and it's going to seem like pandamonium every time even when the forecast is correct. Nobody remembers UConn over Bucknell in 2011 because why would they?

That being said, I hear what @boog204 is saying. It's probably technically true that an upperclassmen is going to be better than an underclassmen 98% of the time, all things being equal. Obviously things are not equal, but if you're trying to win a title team with one and dones, you're truly mining for that 1-2%. (Those last two points aren't necessarily connected, which is confusing, but you get my point - you had better be sure you get the best of the best, the Cousins' and the Walls', if you're going to go that route, and not Trevon Duval or Kevin Knox).
 
Joined
Aug 26, 2011
Messages
9,343
Reaction Score
23,546
2015 Duke is the only team I'd truly classify as having been carried to a title by one and done players. 2012 Kentucky returned three of their best five players from a team that had gone to the final four the year before. Darius Miller and Doron Lamb were studs in college and Terrence Jones was (I think) a first round pick who returned to school because of the lockout. The only other team they've had like that has been 2015, which was obviously a juggernaut as well.

Even with Davis and Kidd-Gilchrist, that's like a four seed without the three guys I just mentioned. They essentially played six guys all year, and none of their freshman were especially gifted as scorers.

People also tend to forget that 2011 UConn is one of the youngest teams - if not the youngest - to ever win a title. Obviously nobody considers them to be from that cloth because of Kemba, but that's the argument I always used to make when people said you couldn't win a title with them - if Bazz, Roscoe, and Lamb had declared following the season, 60% of our crunch-time lineup would have been one and done (and I know that's not what people mean when they talk about one and dones, but if you follow the logic you can see the hole n the argument).
 
Joined
Dec 14, 2015
Messages
8,362
Reaction Score
55,426
Agree that neither lives up to their preseason hype. Duke had the first, fifth, sixth, and eighth ranked recruits in 2017 along with an All-American Grayson Allen in their starting lineup and couldn't even make a Final Four. Kentucky started 5 top 35 guys and had 3 more off the bench and failed to make the Elite Eight even though they had a cake walk. Neither Squid or K are great coaches. They are good, not great coaches who can recruit better than everyone else.
Totally agree about Cal great recruiter, decent coach. Totally disagree about K. He’s great
 
Joined
Mar 19, 2015
Messages
2,985
Reaction Score
9,300
Totally agree about Cal great recruiter, decent coach. Totally disagree about K. He’s great

I think K is good, even really good. It’s just that I think with the talent he gets year in and year out that he should have a few more rings. Not saying he’s a bad coach at all, just that in my opinion he should’ve done more with his past talent.
 
Joined
Dec 14, 2015
Messages
8,362
Reaction Score
55,426
I think K is good, even really good. It’s just that I think with the talent he gets year in and year out that he should have a few more rings. Not saying he’s a bad coach at all, just that in my opinion he should’ve done more with his past talent.
Agreed. It’s why I think Calhoun is the greatest ever. He did more with less than K ever had.
 

whaler11

Head Happy Hour Coach
Joined
Aug 27, 2011
Messages
44,374
Reaction Score
68,261
I love Duke couldn’t make the FF.

They lost to KANSAS in OT after a shot was 98% of the way down came out.

K’s process is flawed!
 

intlzncster

i fart in your general direction
Joined
Aug 24, 2011
Messages
29,091
Reaction Score
60,514
I love Duke couldn’t make the FF.

They lost to KANSAS in OT after a shot was 98% of the way down came out.

K’s process is flawed!

coffee's for closers only bruh.
 

Online statistics

Members online
460
Guests online
4,180
Total visitors
4,640

Forum statistics

Threads
157,023
Messages
4,077,526
Members
9,967
Latest member
UChuskman


Top Bottom