Last chance to guess at Tennessee's seeding: 6th? Seriously?

[Gus Mahler]

If TN was an 8th 0r 9th seed in UCONN's bracket at Gampel in front of 10,600+ fans would be sweet, very sweet! Where they can't use any politics, or whatever to weasel out of it. With the whole nation watching on ESPN!
1/2 time score- 46 to 18 / Final score- UCONN 86 TN 40!

I like your sense of specificity.

 

[UcMiami]

If you're going to use a "best win since Jan 1" criteria, you might as well tell mid-majors that they no chance. The whole season matters.
FGCU at least has a quality road win -- at GW. Temple does not.

One other note: while many like to cite specific RPI rankings, I'm not sure that's correct. The standard RPI formula (1/4)*(own record) + (1/2)*(opponents record) + 1/4*(opponents' opponents record) is easy to calculate and is what I presume most of the RPI sites use. However, I seem to recall the committee using an unpublished adjusted RPI measure. The adjusted measure gave more weight to, I think, road wins - though I can't recall for sure. In any event, the RPI we see may not be the RPI the committee is using.

The NCAA does have an RPI ranking on their site but have no idea if it matches what the committee uses:
http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-women/d1/ncaa-womens-basketball-rpi

I used the Jan time frame because Charlie was saying the really impressive thing was that they had such a good winning streak (up until they didn't! )

For good wins - yes they have that good win against #24 GW and against #57 Auburn, #87 Quinnipiac and #97 Harvard
Temple counters that with wins against #21 USF and #27 Florida as well as #55 Villanova and #74 Tulane twice
You can add a little bonus for the GW win being on the road vs. only one of the Tulane wins being on the road for Temple - but it hardly would compensate for a better slate of wins overall.
Temple has three over 100 losses to FGCUs two. And SOS Temple 80 and OOC of 38 vs. FGCU 198 and OOC of 58

Nothing against FGCU but I don't see how you can justify including them over St. Bonaventure, Princeton, or Temple all three have higher RPI, much higher SOS, and better RPI wins. Even Iowa who I really hope doesn't get included because they are just bleh, can more easily be justified based on most of the criteria that are supposed to be in play.

 

[Bayareahusky]

I do not see Tenn as a 6 seed because of their record...... quality wins vs. Oregon St Texas AM and if you want to include Syracuse..... but the bad losses outnumber the wins....

Aekansas...... Florida........ Alabama...... LSU........ etc etc.....

 

[Vowelguy]

I do not see Tenn as a 6 seed because of their record. quality wins vs. Oregon St Texas AM and if you want to include Syracuse..... but the bad losses outnumber the wins....

Aekansas. Florida... Alabama. LSU... etc etc.....

Florida is not a bad loss.

 

[Fairfield Fan]

If you're going to use a "best win since Jan 1" criteria, you might as well tell mid-majors that they no chance. The whole season matters.
FGCU at least has a quality road win -- at GW. Temple does not.

One other note: while many like to cite specific RPI rankings, I'm not sure that's correct. The standard RPI formula (1/4)*(own record) + (1/2)*(opponents record) + 1/4*(opponents' opponents record) is easy to calculate and is what I presume most of the RPI sites use. However, I seem to recall the committee using an unpublished adjusted RPI measure. The adjusted measure gave more weight to, I think, road wins - though I can't recall for sure. In any event, the RPI we see may not be the RPI the committee is using.

The problem with the formula is that it doesn't distinguish between wins against mediocre teams and losses against strong teams. So a team can lose to a top team, and still see its RPI rise. The formula should take into effect whether the team won or lost against the strong teams, and what their winning percentage was against weak or mediocre teams. It doesn't seem to do that. So Tennessee can win against weak teams, lose against all the strong teams, but still have a high RPI.

 

[Orangutan]

Florida is not a bad loss.

Yup, also the SelComm doesn't care that much about "bad losses".

They prefer a team with some really good wins and some really bad losses to a team with no good wins that beat everybody they are "supposed to".

 

[Fairfield Fan]

http://espn.go.com/womens-college-b...huskies-finish-no-1-ap-women-hoops-poll-again

"While UConn finished No. 1, Tennessee missed the final poll for the first time in school history. The Lady Vols saw their streak of being ranked for 565 consecutive weeks end in February."

Sixth seed? Will tonight be an embarrassment?

 

[EricLA]

Has anyone ever compared Creme's final bracket guesses to the NCAA selections?

Not that I know of BUT... I did see a thing on ESPN where they compared Creme to Lunardi SOLELY on the basis of picking the field of 64 ( or in their case the at large bids). Creme (predicting the women) had a better % than Creme (predicting the men).

I think the most Creme ever missed was 3 in one year, normally missing no more than 1. But I did not see any kind of analysis or comparison based on the seeds the pick. I have a feeling (nothing concrete) that the committee may look at the seedings and decide if ANY of their "Judges" think Tenn is a 6 seed, that the eye test of a 13 loss team puts them at least 1 spot lower. I think the committee does discuss the field, and the seedings, and I hope they apply some common sense...

 

[Vowelguy]

So Tennessee can win against weak teams, lose against all the strong teams, but still have a high RPI.

First, TN did not "lose against all the strong teams". One of the biggest reasons Creme has them as a #6 is precisely because of their quality wins (@Oregon St, Syracuse, nc TAMU).
Second, the suggestion that their RPI is overly high is not borne out: both Massey and Sagarin -- which are power ratings and thus dont have some of the RPI's deficiencies -- have them even higher.

 

[EricLA]

First, TN did not "lose against all the strong teams". One of the biggest reasons Creme has them as a #6 is precisely because of their quality wins (@Oregon St, Syracuse, nc TAMU).
Second, the suggestion that their RPI is overly high is not borne out: both Massey and Sagarin -- which are power ratings and thus dont have some of the RPI's deficiencies -- have them even higher.

Massey and RPI has them at 28. Sagarin has them at 24. How does that get them a 6 seed? You mentioned the nice wins. Great. How about losses to Va Tech, Arkansas, Alabama and LSU? Arkansas is the 5th from the bottom, Alabama 3rd from the bottom, and LSU 2nd worst team in their own league. And the LSU and 'bama losses were super recent - just a few weeks ago. I would think those 4 dreadful losses, combined with them being more recent than their good wins you referenced would hold more weight.

I don't deny they will likely get a 6 seed, but no matter how you slice the numbers, they are undeserving. Even if you ONLY use the average of the Massey, Sagarin, and RPI - they would be the #3 7 seed. Not even the strongest, or 2nd strongest 7 seed, but the 3rd.

Add to that 13 losses. Not even in the top 4o in the rankings although they are getting 3 votes in one of the polls. I mean come on - it's not being a Tenn hater to say that a 6 seed would be gross negligence...

 

[Carnac]

Just cannot believe that Tennessee, with 13- count 'em, 13- losses, deserves to be seeded 6th in a region, as Charlie Creme does. I think common sense says a 9 seed max. It'll all become clear tonight. But last thoughts?

...............and that's being generous. Tennessee completely under achieved this year. Before the season began, I had them in the "sweet 16". However with all of the internal issues and fan outrage that has descended upon the Lady Vol program this season, anything less than inclusion in the final 16, it's going to be very difficult to classify this season as anything other than a bust.

With 70 minutes left before the reveal, I'm chomping at the bit. I've (we've) been waiting for a week for this. We finally get to see our road to the final 4. I've said it a hundred times, and I'll say it again. NOBODY wants to be in our bracket. Baylor doesn't have a choice being the lowest ranked 1 seed. But everyone else would much rather be in one of the other regions on the other side of the bracket. At least over there, some believe they might have a "puncher's chance".

 

[Vowelguy]

Massey and RPI has them at 28. Sagarin has them at 24. How does that get them a 6 seed? .

1) The OP suggested that they had an overinflated RPI. My point was merely that the Massey and Sagarin show that 28 is not unreasonable.
2) Creme -- not I -- said they deserve a #6 seed.
3) I have never seen any evidence that the RPI rankings are highly correlated with committee rankings. You can't see, for example, RPI 20 and think "5 seed". It's much more complex than that.

You mentioned the nice wins. Great. How about losses to Va Tech, Arkansas, Alabama and LSU?

The committee tends to give a little more weight to quality wins than bad losses. To me that makes sense. Bracketing isn't just about being fair to the team being seeded, but also to the teams that get seeded against them. Not talking about TN but more generally: If you're a top team, would you rather face a team that never loses to a bad team but also never beats any good ones OR a team that sometimes plays great and sometimes poorly? Most would say the former. Not to say that bad losses don't matter - they definitely do; it's just a slight heavier weight to strong quality wins, especially on the road.

 

[Carnac]

Has anyone ever compared Creme's final bracket guesses to the NCAA selections?

I read somewhere recently that he had about a 94% correct percentage rate. He's the "Mel Kiper" of brackets for ESPN.

 

[cockhrnleghrn]

Tennessee should be a 7 seed; I just don't see them getting a 6. Even with a 7 seed, it isn't beyond the realm of possibility they could beat a 2.

 

[EricLA]

Tennessee should be a 7 seed; I just don't see them getting a 6. Even with a 7 seed, it isn't beyond the realm of possibility they could beat a 2.

Very true. They already beat Oregon State, who's going to be a 2 seed. The lost to Texas, another 2 seed. But likely they would face Maryland or Louisville. I'd give them a better shot at L'ville just because I'm more familiar with MD. We will see soon enough, though...

 

[ed4ourgirls]

The difficulty with seeding Tennessee is in the Jekyll and Hyde nature of the team.

As has been pointed out they have some quality wins and played South Carolina
competitively for much of that game. If THAT Tennessee took the court then they
would deserve a six seed or even higher.

On the other hand are the losses to Arkansas, Alabama, and LSU. THAT Tennessee
doesn't deserve to be in the tournament.

 

[Nuyoika]

Creme's accuracy is with the selections... NOT with the placement. I think he has only ever missed on who gets in 3 times. With each of the times being a max of 3 errors. He is usually spot on with who is selected... as to who goes where and what their actual seed is that's a crap shoot. The committee doesn't even know that will be til the vote is taken on decision day.

 

[UcMiami]

If you look at the seven seeds Charlie has:
BYU, OKSt, Washington, and USF it is hard to find a team to move up to replace TN as a 6 seed:
BYU - ONLY top 50 win - #19 TAMU, bad loss #116 Gonzaga plus #72 San Fran, and 82 San Diego
Washington - Good wins #9 Stanford and #10 UCLA - losses to #85 Oregon and #88 Utah
USF - Good wins #30 Ok ST, #40 Chattanooga bad losses #113 Memphis and #69 Temple
OkSt - Good wins #2 Baylor, #22 WV, #32 OK x2, #48 KSU bad losses #107 TCU and 136 ISU

TN - Good wins #5 OrSt, #12 SYR, #19 TAMU, #35 UGA, #40 Chat, #44 Albany, #45 Missouri - offset by 4 bad losses 124 VaTech, 125 LSU, 142 Arkansas, 159 Alabama

Now we all know that those three SEC bottom dwellers are terrible losses, but with the SEC RPI behind them they look better than they should, and the wins against UGA and Missouri look a lot better than they should as well for the same reason, but the same can be said about KSU for Ok ST and TSU and ISU as well and against Oregon and Utah. And 7 wins against top 50 compared to 4, 2, 2, and 1 is 'impressive'. You discount two of them for extra bad losses and it is still 5 vs 4, 2, and 1.

 

[Fairfield Fan]

Tennessee should be a 7 seed; I just don't see them getting a 6. Even with a 7 seed, it isn't beyond the realm of possibility they could beat a 2.

You got it right. But Tennessee is in, but NC State doesn't even make the tournament? That makes sense?

 

[CocoHusky]

I'll have you know Syracuse is planning on winning the national championship! Just ask Coach Hillsman:

"Q: You said that you see this team playing a lot of basketball left. Where do you think this team can go?

QUENTIN HILLSMAN: We can win the championship, win the NCAA Tournament. Everybody starts off 0-0, so we should get two games at home, we play pretty well at home. We should have moved up somewhere 4 seed, we should be a pretty high 4 seed, go on the road to a very favorable matchup, win those two, Final Four, win that one, capture the game, win that one, cut down some nets. Normally how it works."

Did someone forget to tell Q that they made the NCAA tournament and not the NIT?

 

[Fairfield Fan]

The difficulty with seeding Tennessee is in the Jekyll and Hyde nature of the team.

As has been pointed out they have some quality wins and played South Carolina
competitively for much of that game. If THAT Tennessee took the court then they
would deserve a six seed or even higher.

On the other hand are the losses to Arkansas, Alabama, and LSU. THAT Tennessee
doesn't deserve to be in the tournament.

Exactly. They could very well be out after the first round. Or, they could make the Sweet Sixteen. I'm guessing they're out after one.

 

[Vowelguy]

You got it right. But Tennessee is in, but NC State doesn't even make the tournament? That makes sense?

NC state??? Their best wins are Duke and Villanova, neither of which made the tourney.
Not even close to Tennessee.s resume.

 

[cockhrnleghrn]

Did someone forget to tell Q that they made the NCAA tournament and not the NIT?

It looks like I'll get to see him up close and personal in Sioux Falls. I'm still trying to come to terms with having to go to Sioux Falls as the overall 2nd number 1 seed.

 

[UcMiami]

Well - Creme got two wrong - NC State (hadn't even noticed he was including them - they have a terrible resume) and FGCU - with Princeton and St. Bonaventure getting the bids instead.

The committee includes Purdue and Auburn to prove that as long as you are in a P5 you don't have to worry about RPI - I would guess that Auburn losing games to the eight conference mates above them in RPI probably added 20 points to their # 57 and Purdue losing to the six conference mates with better RPIs probably added 15 to their #66.

 

[Fairfield Fan]

Well - Creme got two wrong - NC State (hadn't even noticed he was including them - they have a terrible resume) and FGCU - with Princeton and St. Bonaventure getting the bids instead.

The committee includes Purdue and Auburn to prove that as long as you are in a P5 you don't have to worry about RPI - I would guess that Auburn losing games to the eight conference mates above them in RPI probably added 20 points to their # 57 and Purdue losing to the six conference mates with better RPIs probably added 15 to their #66.

He got two of the four schools in UConn's immediate bracket wrong. Shall we give him a hard time for not picking Robert Morris?