KK Arnold appreciation | The Boneyard

KK Arnold appreciation

DefenseBB

DefenseBB

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Every elite team needs a good floor general and there certainly is quite good list of Point Guards across the WCBB spectrum. On here, we know how valuable KK is to this team with her high energy, tenacious defense and infectious smile and bulldog mentality. That said, as an analytics guy who scours the internet looking for ways to better evaluate the players and understand the game, I find myself frustrated with the lack of acclaim for her and the poor assessment across the spectrum. The "pundits" seem blinded or deafened by either lights or sound bites coming from impassioned coaches elsewhere.

As a review, the HoopHallAwards had 10 players on their February listing
  1. Hannah Hidalgo-Junior analytics rank #1
  2. Tonie Morgan-Senior #8
  3. Olivia Miles-Senior #3
  4. Raven Johnson-Senior #7
  5. Rori Harmon-Senior #10
  6. Zoe Brooks-Junior #9
  7. Britt Prince-Soph #5
  8. Aaliyah Chavez-Fresh #11
  9. Liv McGill-Soph #4
  10. Kiki Rice-Senior #2
The first 5 are now the 5 finalists. For analysis, I collect from a few sites-HerHoopStats, Bart Torvik and use WinShares, PER, Points Over Replacement, Box Plus/Minus and calculate game efficiency scores for the season and combining their ranking of the 11 players across the 5 analytic scores, I listed that rank. Overall, KK would rank 6th on this list, While this does very little for this year, Geno needs to start the dialogue about KK for next year to get on the numerous pre-season watch lists as a top PG. Narrative evidently matters.

I had posted elsewhere that one of the reasons UCLA is having such a sustained season (under Cori, they always start strong but seem to plateau in January, never getting better) is due to how well Kiki Rice has played. Cori seems to just be touring Lauren Betts and not extolling how great a season that Kiki is having. Kiki is playing better than Betts and should clearly be on this TOP 5 list.

Anyway, for next year, KK is clearly the #2 Point guard stat-wise returning (though I still struggle calling Hidalgo a "point guard"). Her assist to turnover ratio is already an absurd 4.0 and if she can increase her scoring into the double digits, along with her defensive prowess, and the teams continued success, she should get recognized and receive numerous accolades.

I do hope Geno starts that media blitz this post season while all the "pundit" eyes are paying attention, especially if KK can face off against the likes of Raven, Kiki or Rori (or if any major upsets occur-Hannah, Aaliyah or Tonie).

To me, clearly Dawn and Vic have touted their PG to get acclaim despite their advanced analytics coming up short. They are fine leaders of their teams but not so sure they are warranting top 5 and or AA Honorable Mention.
 
Here is the rule: To win awards, score points. In the BET KK scored 40 points in 3 games. If she can average near that next year the awards will be flowing. If not, she will be considered one or 1.5 dimensional (defense and assists) and not worthy of the votes of those electors who only look at points.
 
Heck with all this!
Do we see her passing up shots, like she's done in her 3 years? Not so much
Do we think she can score? yes
I think she'll get what she deserves! She's had a wonderful college career so far! Best on that list? yes
On that list, who do you think makes it in the W? I think KK will!
List her attributes! With a ball in her hands, fastest up the foor. Ballhandling. Can finish inside. Rebounding. Guarding in the post.
Best on-ball on that list. Fantastic teammate. Will do anything the team needs to win.
Do you guys have any comparisons? Mine's Jalen Brunson- averaged 14.8 in college and he's a superstar in the NBA. He's super
strong, durable. (KK)
 
I'm just surprised Tonie Morgan is ranked so highly. I'd have said -- from eyeball assessments only -- she's the limiting factor on Kentucky's success. She's good, not great. By contrast, Olivia is playing like a pro already, though the mediocrity of the Big12 doesn't require her talents to really shine. She can dominate that conference in 3rd gear.

I also agree that Hannah doesn't really feel like a PG, though she has all the relevant skills. I could say something similar about Olivia, though the discrepancy is not so marked in her case.
 
.-.
DefenseBB said:
Every elite team needs a good floor general and there certainly is quite good list of Point Guards across the WCBB spectrum. On here, we know how valuable KK is to this team with her high energy, tenacious defense and infectious smile and bulldog mentality. That said, as an analytics guy who scours the internet looking for ways to better evaluate the players and understand the game, I find myself frustrated with the lack of acclaim for her and the poor assessment across the spectrum. The "pundits" seem blinded or deafened by either lights or sound bites coming from impassioned coaches elsewhere.

As a review, the HoopHallAwards had 10 players on their February listing
  1. Hannah Hidalgo-Junior analytics rank #1
  2. Tonie Morgan-Senior #8
  3. Olivia Miles-Senior #3
  4. Raven Johnson-Senior #7
  5. Rori Harmon-Senior #10
  6. Zoe Brooks-Junior #9
  7. Britt Prince-Soph #5
  8. Aaliyah Chavez-Fresh #11
  9. Liv McGill-Soph #4
  10. Kiki Rice-Senior #2
The first 5 are now the 5 finalists. For analysis, I collect from a few sites-HerHoopStats, Bart Torvik and use WinShares, PER, Points Over Replacement, Box Plus/Minus and calculate game efficiency scores for the season and combining their ranking of the 11 players across the 5 analytic scores, I listed that rank. Overall, KK would rank 6th on this list, While this does very little for this year, Geno needs to start the dialogue about KK for next year to get on the numerous pre-season watch lists as a top PG. Narrative evidently matters.

I had posted elsewhere that one of the reasons UCLA is having such a sustained season (under Cori, they always start strong but seem to plateau in January, never getting better) is due to how well Kiki Rice has played. Cori seems to just be touring Lauren Betts and not extolling how great a season that Kiki is having. Kiki is playing better than Betts and should clearly be on this TOP 5 list.

Anyway, for next year, KK is clearly the #2 Point guard stat-wise returning (though I still struggle calling Hidalgo a "point guard"). Her assist to turnover ratio is already an absurd 4.0 and if she can increase her scoring into the double digits, along with her defensive prowess, and the teams continued success, she should get recognized and receive numerous accolades.

I do hope Geno starts that media blitz this post season while all the "pundit" eyes are paying attention, especially if KK can face off against the likes of Raven, Kiki or Rori (or if any major upsets occur-Hannah, Aaliyah or Tonie).

To me, clearly Dawn and Vic have touted their PG to get acclaim despite their advanced analytics coming up short. They are fine leaders of their teams but not so sure they are warranting top 5 and or AA Honorable Mention.
Expand ...
Excellent post and all your points are 100% correct. I’ve been lamenting KK’s lack of acclaim as well all season and feel the same frustration as you expressed. I believe that we’ve got 3 players on our team who are the best in the country at their respective positions yet one (KK) gets no recognition. Even KK making first team All BE was almost a slap in the face as all others were unanimous except her, including several underclass guards who can’t even get the ball past midcourt let alone score when guarded by KK. Meanwhile if need be ( like in the BE tourney and the FF last season) she can score and assist at will.Part of the problem is that she is so team oriented and unselfish that she never complains about often sitting out half the game so others get PT against unmatched opponents ( like USC,ND,Iowa,Ohio State and all BE teams) while those teams players (some are alleged stars) build up their stats when she’s out of the game. Even on the BY some question her credentials for national honors and whether she should even start and suggest that the team loses nothing when she comes out of the game which is demonstrative of the problem relative to her lack of recognition and respect. Here’s a fun exercise to try if you’re a KK fan,If you ask AI whose are the best pure point guards in the country it’ll spit out HH, Raven, Olivia M and maybe Rorii, Kiki Rice and Jazzy D, then you ask it what about KK Arnold and it will state back that it was an oversight and she’s certainly worthy of consideration. Then inquire if it had an SEC/Big 10 or ACC media bias since it initially ignored KK and it will acknowledge that it made a mistake and will spit out analytics showing why KK may in fact be the best pure PG in the nation and that it was an egregious error for her not being a finalist (or even nominated) for the Nancy Lieberman Award) and then when it asks you if it should compare head to head games this season and last year in the final four and at SC between her and HH, and Raven and Jazzy and Kiki and it acknowledges her and UConn’s dominance and her historical efficiency as a ball handler,facilitator and defensive stopper and her per minute production and then finally acknowledges its error in omitting her as she appears statistically and result wise to be the top pure PG. Anyway, great post and hopefully all will see the light again soon and keep it in mind for next year
 
Bone Dog said:
I'm just surprised Tonie Morgan is ranked so highly. I'd have said -- from eyeball assessments only -- she's the limiting factor on Kentucky's success. She's good, not great. By contrast, Olivia is playing like a pro already, though the mediocrity of the Big12 doesn't require her talents to really shine. She can dominate that conference in 3rd gear.

I also agree that Hannah doesn't really feel like a PG, though she has all the relevant skills. I could say something similar about Olivia, though the discrepancy is not so marked in her case.
Expand ...
I would argue that she has been a better addition to Kentucky than Georgia Amoore. Amoore got significantly more press but Tonie is the better player. To wit, Tonie is the much better shooter .477 to .423, about the same in 3 pt .339 to .336, while Amoore was the better FT shooter at .837 v. .718, Tonie got to the line 45 more times (149 to 104), Tonie had many more rebounds 101 to 70, more assists 269-213, a better Assist to Turnover ratio 2.32 to 2.24 and by the way, Kentucky won on the road in round two while Amoor lost at home. All the advanced analytics favor Tonie over Georgia too. Oh and she is making considerable less money than Miles....
 
Bone Dog said:
I'm just surprised Tonie Morgan is ranked so highly. I'd have said -- from eyeball assessments only -- she's the limiting factor on Kentucky's success. She's good, not great. By contrast, Olivia is playing like a pro already, though the mediocrity of the Big12 doesn't require her talents to really shine. She can dominate that conference in 3rd gear.

I also agree that Hannah doesn't really feel like a PG, though she has all the relevant skills. I could say something similar about Olivia, though the discrepancy is not so marked in her case.
Expand ...
I'm not at all. Miles doesn't know what defense is.
 
I don't think UConn's offense really utilizes a classic point guard. The teams who do, like UCLA and TCU have great players in Rice and Miles, but I'd rather have KK than either or them.
 
BobbyJ said:
I'm not at all. Miles doesn't know what defense is.
Expand ...
I agree, if you mean Olivia doesn't deserve a higher rank based on this season's play. That's what I meant when I said the level of competition in the Big12 doesn't demand a lot from Olivia. She isn't called upon to play much defense these days. When she was at ND, she seemed to know what defense is.
 
.-.
UConn doesn't need KK to be a scorer this year. If they needed her to score 12-14 per game she could easily provide that for the team but what she needs to be is a great defender and facilitator. I thought she was head and shoulders abover the starter last year and I think she has been amazing this year. Without her UConn only wins by 40 against Syracuse.
 
Today's game against NC proved that KK or Ash needs to score as many points as possible. Last year's team was very good because at least 3 starters (Paige, Azzi, Sarah) were all good shooters that made it hard for any team to double team any one player. This team has a 3rd shooter, BQ, who does not start the game. Chen, from last year could a least make shots, when necessary; KK Simply does not shoot well.
 
cleobel60 said:
Today's game against NC proved that KK or Ash needs to score as many points as possible. Last year's team was very good because at least 3 starters (Paige, Azzi, Sarah) were all good shooters that made it hard for any team to double team any one player. This team has a 3rd shooter, BQ, who does not start the game. Chen, from last year could a least make shots, when necessary; KK Simply does not shoot well.
Expand ...
Blanca… is a huge help
 
cleobel60 said:
Today's game against NC proved that KK or Ash needs to score as many points as possible. Last year's team was very good because at least 3 starters (Paige, Azzi, Sarah) were all good shooters that made it hard for any team to double team any one player. This team has a 3rd shooter, BQ, who does not start the game. Chen, from last year could a least make shots, when necessary; KK Simply does not shoot well.
Expand ...
I think KK has improved greatly on her shot this year. She can also drive to the basket and get a bucket. Although I wish she was a little bit of a three-point shooter, I think she’s going to surprise us for the rest of the tournament.
 
.-.
cleobel60 said:
Disagree. History shows Sue Bird Mo Jefferson, Renee Montgomery, Bria Hartley, and others. Just a few
Expand ...
Talking about this year's team, obviously. Geno doesn't live in the past.
 
cleobel60 said:
Today's game against NC proved that KK or Ash needs to score as many points as possible. Last year's team was very good because at least 3 starters (Paige, Azzi, Sarah) were all good shooters that made it hard for any team to double team any one player. This team has a 3rd shooter, BQ, who does not start the game. Chen, from last year could a least make shots, when necessary; KK Simply does not shoot well.
Expand ...
Shooting percentages of Uconns guards
KK. 56.7
K9. 54.6
AZ. 50.3
Azzi 49.1
Kelis Fisher. 43.3
AS. 40.6

It's not hard to check stats b4 you post
 
Dogstar said:
Shooting percentages of Uconns guards
KK. 56.7
K9. 54.6
AZ. 50.3
Azzi 49.1
Kelis Fisher. 43.3
AS. 40.6

It's not hard to check stats b4 you post
Expand ...
It's points, not percentages that are the stats that count.
 
ERWUC65 said:
It's points, not percentages that are the stats that count.
Expand ...
I tend to focus on this stat: What team has the most points (not
the individual points of one player).
UCONN points come from the combined CHEMISTRY of the
UCONN team.... Something (IMHO) that comes down to being "unselfish".
Kudos to those unselfish Huskies.... every one of them.
Do they have stats for diving for loose balls? For making that
perfect next pass? I enjoy the "eye test".... chaos on defense
and execution on offense. I can't wait for 1 PM today (Sunday)! Z
 
Zarathustra said:
I tend to focus on this stat: What team has the most points (not
the individual points of one player).
UCONN points come from the combined CHEMISTRY of the
UCONN team.... Something (IMHO) that comes down to being "unselfish".
Kudos to those unselfish Huskies.... every one of them.
Do they have stats for diving for loose balls? For making that
perfect next pass? I enjoy the "eye test".... chaos on defense
and execution on offense. I can't wait for 1 PM today (Sunday)! Z
Expand ...
This would be the game that 'execution on offense' would send a message to the other final four prospects that besides a great defense, UConn can shoot and score in bunches, just like they did against Syracuse.
 
.-.
ERWUC65 said:
It's points, not percentages that are the stats that count.
Expand ...
Ohhhhhh...so it's ok to shoot ummmm... 2 for 15 and score 5 points...you cool with tht? Just asking for my statistician friend tht lives 3 houses down from me....and he's 5 years old.
 
Blond D. said:
I think all the players should be polled and pick the top 5 point guards they most hate to play against. (team mates not included.)
I bet KK would get some love (or hate) then.
Expand ...

that would be locking the awards to those leagues with 18 to 20 teams.
 
Dogstar said:
Ohhhhhh...so it's ok to shoot ummmm... 2 for 15 and score 5 points...you cool with tht? Just asking for my statistician friend tht lives 3 houses down from me....and he's 5 years old.
Expand ...
Read the report or listen to the talking heads. Do you remember anyone ever open with the lead of KK Arnold lead the team by shooting 60% from the field. Nah,,, didn't think so. It points, points, points, rebounds and assists that grab headlines and win awards.
 
HuskylnSC said:
Read the report or listen to the talking heads. Do you remember anyone ever open with the lead of KK Arnold lead the team by shooting 60% from the field. Nah,,, didn't think so. It points, points, points, rebounds and assists that grab headlines and win awards.
Expand ...
Thats why I said ask the players. Its no fun to be guarded with someone who covers you like a cheap suit and keeps stealing the ball from you.

Like Caitlin Clark when Nika was on her a couple years ago. She didnt mention Nika's scoring she just wanted that blue #10 outa her face.
 
There's a post on the board tht reads

50/40/90 if I recall so percentages are important. My answer was abt KKs shooting, just bcus she doesn't take as many shots as some of the others she makes a higher percentage whn she does. She's an above average shooter for a guard. Don't JUST concentrate on her misses and turn a blind eye to her other accomplishments...Sound familiar?
 
.-.
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