One dirty secret about this UConn team is that they haven't been all that good handling the press. You would think with two of the quickest guards in the country in Napier and Boatright, that would be the last of their problems. But Pitino is a master-mind, and he always seems to force UConn into funneling the ball to players that don't want to be handling it in the open court (Giffey, Calhoun, Daniels, etc.). They killed us with the press last year in Hartford, and even if the press doesn't create turnovers, it can really have an effect later in the game on guys like Napier who play 38-40 minutes.
As others alluded to, Samuel is going to have to play a big role in this game for UConn to win. Louisville's guards are always extremely quick, physical, and well-conditioned, and Pitino has always done a good job of rotating them in and out to keep them fresh. Samuel being able to maintain his composure under pressure is imperative.