Ken Pom

[J187Money]

It was really nice to have historic KenPom numbers last year, but they would have been historic even had we lost to Purdue and that would have sucked.

Auburn's numbers are better than ours were last year - but won't mean anything if they don't bring home a NC.

 

[Hoophound]

Going to very strongly disagree here. There's no way we win a championship without fixing the defensive issues, but it's not hard to imagine a run to the Sweet Sixteen or Elite Eight even if it just remains a mediocre defense

A run to the Sweet 16 or Elite 8 isn’t the kind of surprise run I’m talking about. That’s almost expected at this point given our success. I’m talking FF or better. That’s not happening with this D.

 

[WiseWillie]

This is definitely not a KP friendly team - we’ve been winning but it’s been anything but efficient and consistent. You usually need a few dominating performances mixed in to keep that up and we just don’t have much there. We are figuring out how to win. It’s unlikely to get much better with Liam out. Just need to grind out wins.

Yes, if anything Dan Hurley will be stressing playing consistently going forward. Too much in 2nd half of fighting back, taking the lead and then getting too complacent and slacking off. Games like that are what we can expect in the BE as every team wants to take down #1 and will play like they are in the BE championship.

 

[Inyatkin]

It was really nice to have historic KenPom numbers last year, but they would have been historic even had we lost to Purdue and that would have sucked.

Auburn's numbers are better than ours were last year - but won't mean anything if they don't bring home a NC.

That's what a one-and-done tournament will do. The list of KenPom No. 1s who did not win it all is a long one.

Which makes the last two years all the crazier

 

[ToolzieFan]

There’s a lot of room between “the metrics don’t matter” and “the sky is falling”. Bart ‘s site lets you compare teams with similar efficiency numbers - offensive rating, defensive rating, and tempo. If you look at the teams most similar to UConn whose seeds were similar to what we’d currently expect to get, you get this list:

Seven of 10 made the Sweet Sixteen, three made the Elite Eight, and one made the finals. That doesn’t sound so bad. We’re not last year’s powerhouse team, and we were never going to be. I’d take a likely Sweet Sixteen team and have some faith that either our coaching staff fixes some issues, or maybe we get hot at the right time. And if that doesn’t sound like a good season, you all need to think back to what Selection Sunday was like during the late-Kevin Ollie era.

Compare Efficiency Profiles - Customizable College Basketball Tempo Free Stats - T-Rank

T-Rank College Basketball Ratings and Rankings. And fun.

barttorvik.com

 

[CTBasketball]

Again now metrics are for nerds and you just keep pointing to them.

Well I am pro-Mahaney. I think this year’s success depends on his improvement in play and confidence.

So just like any American-media focal, I will twist the metrics to push my agenda. It’s the American way!

 

[Pmac923]

Plenty of teams with the same offensive juggernaut and meh defensive profile been steamrolled out of the tourney by UConn.

D wins championships.

According to KenPom we’d lose to Baylor and Gonzaga. We’ve seen how those matchups went. Sometimes you just toss the ball up and see how the game goes. If our offense regresses we can re-discuss but I fully expect us to keep getting better throughout the year. For an 8 game win streak this forum is very glum.

 

[JustbrewitMan]

The other thing to keep in mind with KenPom and other metric-based rankings is that they do try to adjust for quality of opponent, but it's very likely somewhat imperfect and subject to a lot of game-to-game variance. Players/Teams/Coaches aren't AI SimRobots. Yet.

So let's look at the recent data for one of our recent quality opponents - Gonzaga. Here's their current KenPom rating:

Looking great, with the #6 offense, #19 defense. Meanwhile, we're currently "horrible" at #134 defense and have been in a freefall. Glancing at the KP "Strength of schedule" data for Gonzaga, it looks like "on average", they've played pretty quality comp overall...all average metrics for their comp are in the upper 20's for SoS (Net, O, and D).

But let's look at the ORtg for the actual teams that they and we have played since our showdown in MSG...a great battle between 2 obviously quality teams who displayed very good offense and defense during that game [in general]:

For Gonzaga:

Nicholls - 239​

Bucknell - 344​

UCLA - 89​

Pepperidge Farms - 211​

Portland - 298​

Loyola Marymount - 203​

All of these teams they've played are also near the bottom quartile in 3pt% too (with the exception of UCLA, who is 103rd) so they're less likely to have a "hot" shooting game. As @RuffRuff likes to say, Gonzaga has played a bunch of tomato cans since our game.

For UConn:

Xavier - 46​

Butler - 86​

DePaul -123​

Providence - 107​

Xavier, Butler, and DePaul are high-level 3pt shooting teams, much more likely to get "hot" no matter what the D does.

Rhetorical Question:

Which team do you think is more likely to keep their KenPom DRtg and/or improve it over that stretch of games? Which one is more likely to drop spots?

 

[uconngb]

The algorithm may not have a factor for rivalry games or not recognize this as a rivalry game.

Rivalry?? What rivalry? We played Providence

 

[FfldCntyFan]

The algorithm may not have a factor for rivalry games or not recognize this as a rivalry game.

I doubt that there are more than three or four people who live more than 25 miles from downtown Cranston who recognize this as a rivalry game.

 

[Hoophound]

I doubt that there are more than three or four people who live more than 25 miles from downtown Cranston who recognize this as a rivalry game.

This is funny, maybe inadvertently, but funny. People in Rhode Island think driving anywhere more than 30 minutes away is grounds for booking a hotel and bringing snacks. Most people that really care about PC basketball must live within a 30 minute radius. They just have to. I also love the Cranston reference rather than saying Providence. My mother is from Cranston. I love my Italian family from there, but to say they are characters would be a huge understatement. They are all nuts and they love PC.

 

[ctbro1999]

UConn v Nova may set the record for worst defenses for a matchup between top 5 scoring offense teams:

UConn: #2 offense/#151 defense
Nova: #3 offense, #217 defense

 

[uconngb]

UConn v Nova may set the record for worst defenses for a matchup between top 5 scoring offense teams:

UConn: #2 offense/#151 defense
Nova: #3 offense, #217 defense

So……hammer the over!

 

[brihman]

According to KenPom we’d lose to Baylor and Gonzaga. We’ve seen how those matchups went. Sometimes you just toss the ball up and see how the game goes. If our offense regresses we can re-discuss but I fully expect us to keep getting better throughout the year. For an 8 game win streak this forum is very glum.

We look like a top 10-20 team based on the eye test. A #17 or #18 ranked team goes into the NCAAs with 6 or 7 losses. Seems like the computers are about right. Not unrealistic to think that is where we will end up.

Obviously hoping for better. That said, I don’t think a Sweet 16 or Final 8 matchup with Auburn or Tennessee would be a blowout.

 

[brihman]

This is funny, maybe inadvertently, but funny. People in Rhode Island think driving anywhere more than 30 minutes away is grounds for booking a hotel and bringing snacks. Most people that really care about PC basketball must live within a 30 minute radius. They just have to. I also love the Cranston reference rather than saying Providence. My mother is from Cranston. I love my Italian family from there, but to say they are characters would be a huge understatement. They are all nuts and they love PC.

UConn v Nova may set the record for worst defenses for a matchup between top 5 scoring offense teams:

UConn: #2 offense/#151 defense
Nova: #3 offense, #217 defense

Is Eric Dixon leading the country in scoring?

 

[Scot-e]

Is Eric Dixon leading the country in scoring?

He finally did it in his 8th year of playing college basketball.

 

[aceboon]

 

[6Nattys4Us]

I doubt that there are more than three or four people who live more than 25 miles from downtown Cranston who recognize this as a rivalry game.

It's Rhode Island...everyone lives within 25 miles of Cranston.

That said, who else remembers WWRX - laughter, ten after?

 

[Inyatkin]

Efficiency ratings every year seem to love Gonzaga and Houston. I'm not knocking the numbers, but that hasn't translated into a whole lot of hardware

 

[JustbrewitMan]

Efficiency ratings every year seem to love Gonzaga and Houston. I'm not knocking the numbers, but that hasn't translated into a whole lot of hardware

Gonzaga is an interesting case study for metrics like KP. Look, there's no denying that Few has built and sustained a quality CBB program,

But, they're in a really weak overall conference so they need to play higher-quality teams to give them higher seedings in the NCAA's.

But, the main time they do this is at the front-end of the season...when even real strong teams are "figuring it out".

Then, they go to their conference play and, with the recent exceptions of maybe StMU and SF, go and beat up on a bunch of KP 150-300 teams (5 in current KP) and play a few "decent mid-major" teams in the 75-150 range. The WCC tournament is a joke and they only have to play 2 teams to win it.

All this makes their KP metrics look real good.

I think they go into the NCAAs a little soft and less battle-tested.

 

[Scrutineer]

This is funny, maybe inadvertently, but funny. People in Rhode Island think driving anywhere more than 30 minutes away is grounds for booking a hotel and bringing snacks. Most people that really care about PC basketball must live within a 30 minute radius. They just have to. I also love the Cranston reference rather than saying Providence. My mother is from Cranston. I love my Italian family from there, but to say they are characters would be a huge understatement. They are all nuts and they love PC.

Well, there's FAH and WAY FAH when it comes to Rhody travel.....

 

[Scrutineer]

UConn v Nova may set the record for worst defenses for a matchup between top 5 scoring offense teams:

UConn: #2 offense/#151 defense
Nova: #3 offense, #217 defense

I say put Samson or Singare on Dixon and we win going away.....

 

[dennismenace]

The metrics matter. All they tell you right now is that we’ve got a problem. If you want to see UConn lose to Auburn or Alabama by 30 points in th NCAA’s, ignore the metrics.

We must fix this defense. The question I have is whether or not we have the team speed to do it. It seems like Hassan is the only guy with the necessary speed and footwork to guard anyone going to the hoop. We can’t even guard the perimeter for squat.

Agreed. Suggest Nowell and Isaiah get more time with even the possibility of being a designated defender(s) option as the road steepens heading into the tournaments. Speed and tenacious defense as an option.