Ken Pom

[businesslawyer]

This thread amazes me. They came from 14 down and got themselves up 12 in about 14 minutes, and while the lead went down from 12 to 3 we weren’t ever really threatened with losing the lead. It sounds like some of you expect Hurley not to say “hey, good gritty win but we have to defend and rebound better than that” but to say “what an awful day, do you know what that did to our performance computer metrics?”

We need to win games. Period. The metrics will be what they are.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

I agree with BL. For now I want wins. Style points are no more than how fancy the napkin was folded when you sat at the table.

People may disagree but how we do this season will be determined by whether we do or do not make the tournament and how we perform in the tournament. If we continue to pile up wins, we will make the tournament. If the many flaws in are play are corrected by March, we will do well in the tournament. If some flaws remain, things will resemblw 2021 or 2022. That will be the case regardless of how many style points we accumulate in January.

 

[ToolzieFan]

I don’t think that the metrics are everything, and I don’t think a discussion about them is for everyone. For me, I can enjoy the heck out of a comeback win and then find it interesting to analyze how the predictive metrics rate our team and what it means going forward. However, it seems like a thread titled Ken Pom is the place to talk about metrics, right?

 

[twiceahusky]

Auburn has the best offensive efficiency so far this season at 1.247. UConn's average so far is 1.212. Today, Providence clocked in at 1.272.

Interesting point - last year UConn led D1 hoops with 1.199. This year that would rank 8th.

Could that be because the top teams have played a large number of out-of-conference teams, many cupcakes? Late season conference battles don’t seem to lead to easy points

 

[JohnFSilver]

How do we improve our one on one on ball defense ? If not possible , then should Hurley try mixing in some zone defense even if he hates it ?

Zone defense gets this team killed. You won’t guard the 3 and won’t rebound out of it.,

 

[NIT88]

Projecting that 1:17 of scoring over 40 minutes, that final score would be 499-312.

Projecting that 1:17 of scoring over 40 minutes, that final score would be 499-312.

Our defense would have dropped a couple hundred points in Ken Pom, but Diarra would have finished with 108 points.

 

[JungleLobo]

I’ll still ride with the best offense in the country and coaches that know how to WIN championships. We don’t have to beat the Boston Celtics.

Plenty of teams with the same offensive juggernaut and meh defensive profile been steamrolled out of the tourney by UConn.

D wins championships.

 

[uh-no]

Plenty of teams with the same offensive juggernaut and meh defensive profile been steamrolled out of the tourney by UConn.

D wins championships.

purdue, alabama, illinois, gonzaga, miami....


you definitely will have a tough go with a D-only squad, but a team playing D like we are right now won't get far.

 

[Hoophound]

The metrics matter. All they tell you right now is that we’ve got a problem. If you want to see UConn lose to Auburn or Alabama by 30 points in th NCAA’s, ignore the metrics.

We must fix this defense. The question I have is whether or not we have the team speed to do it. It seems like Hassan is the only guy with the necessary speed and footwork to guard anyone going to the hoop. We can’t even guard the perimeter for squat.

 

[homunculus]

Plenty of teams with the same offensive juggernaut and meh defensive profile been steamrolled out of the tourney by UConn.

D wins championships.

We’re pretty lucky in that we won’t have to play 23-24 UConn. But what a spectacle it would be if we were to play 24-25 UConn.

 

[JustbrewitMan]

purdue, alabama, illinois, gonzaga, miami....


you definitely will have a tough go with a D-only squad, but a team playing D like we are right now won't get far.

Alabama made it all the way to the final four with an elite offensive & a KenPom 111 defense and gave the tourney winner their toughest battle of the tournament. Quite likely they would have won it all but for us last year.

Not saying I’m happy with our D but the sky isn’t falling like some on here are thinking

 

[businesslawyer]

The metrics matter. All they tell you right now is that we’ve got a problem. If you want to see UConn lose to Auburn or Alabama by 30 points in th NCAA’s, ignore the metrics.

We must fix this defense. The question I have is whether or not we have the team speed to do it. It seems like Hassan is the only guy with the necessary speed and footwork to guard anyone going to the hoop. We can’t even guard the perimeter for squat.

At no time since last March have we had a roster that anyone should think was going to be the best team in the country. There were always going to be more issues with this team. It shouldn’t shock anyone that there are.

That having been said, while the best team in the country will have the best odds of winning the tourney when it starts, they don’t always win. March Madness isn’t about winning 4 of 7 series. You also win championships by being good enough to get to the second weekend and then see what luck and magic you can generate over 4 games. Like 2011 and 2014.

There is nothing wrong with using metrics to analyze weaknesses. Or discussing it. But remember that while every team in the country wants to get better as the season rolls along, their primary concern is winning games while they’re dong it. We’ve got two road games this week against teams that, without our talent, have been winning in conference. I will be happy if, without our one and done, we find a way to win the games.

 

[Hoophound]

At no time since last March have we had a roster that anyone should think was going to be the best team in the country. There were always going to be more issues with this team. It shouldn’t shock anyone that there are.

That having been said, while the best team in the country will have the best odds of winning the tourney when it starts, they don’t always win. March Madness isn’t about winning 4 of 7 series. You also win championships by being good enough to get to the second weekend and then see what luck and magic you can generate over 4 games. Like 2011 and 2014.

There is nothing wrong with using metrics to analyze weaknesses. Or discussing it. But remember that while every team in the country wants to get better as the season rolls along, their primary concern is winning games while they’re dong it. We’ve got two road games this week against teams that, without our talent, have been winning in conference. I will be happy if, without our one and done, we find a way to win the games.

I agree and I am trying to keep it in mind. However, there’s no way we make a surprise run if we don’t figure out how to play defense. It may come along when it most matters, as UConn has a way of being its best in March, but we’ve just got to be a lot better on D at some point.

 

[navery12]

I agree and I am trying to keep it in mind. However, there’s no way we make a surprise run if we don’t figure out how to play defense. It may come along when it most matters, as UConn has a way of being its best in March, but we’ve just got to be a lot better on D at some point.

Going to very strongly disagree here. There's no way we win a championship without fixing the defensive issues, but it's not hard to imagine a run to the Sweet Sixteen or Elite Eight even if it just remains a mediocre defense

 

[Tenspro2002]

Auburn has the best offensive efficiency so far this season at 1.247. UConn's average so far is 1.212. Today, Providence clocked in at 1.272.

Interesting point - last year UConn led D1 hoops with 1.199. This year that would rank 8th.

It kind of makes sense though that there would be more outliers early in the season (more statistical variance with smaller samples and also weighted more towards cupcake games amongst the best teams). I expect by end of the year the top offensive teams will be similar to last year's.

 

[80shusky]

Defense needs to improve. If this team doesnt get it together on D we have ZERO shot at the 3peat.

Without a miracle defensive turnaround, or a bunch of luck and historically offensive genius I think that ship has sailed. Still, have a great squad here of guys getting better so you never know!

 

[NJHusky]

My bigger concern is PG play. I don’t see how we can go very deep without a backup. I’m concerned how worn down Haas will be by March. God forbid he has a game where he gets some ticky tack fouls against a decent team

 

[Hunt for 7]

Bart Torvik, if you’re a nerd, has us ranked 151st in defensive efficiency.

This is sort of more in line than the 120-130 numbers.

Again now metrics are for nerds and you just keep pointing to them.

 

[Inyatkin]

Alabama made it all the way to the final four with an elite offensive & a KenPom 111 defense and gave the tourney winner their toughest battle of the tournament. Quite likely they would have won it all but for us last year.

Not saying I’m happy with our D but the sky isn’t falling like some on here are thinking

Alabama last year is maybe best case scenario for us right now. When we're healthy, we can outscore a whole lot of teams. And I give this coaching staff the benefit of the doubt when it comes to getting some things right between now and the tournament in terms of defense

 

[Iluvsuebird]

For a while, the post-Maui numbers reassured me. From 11/29 through today, we’re #15 overall, #3 on defense, and #129 on defense. From 11/29 through yesterday, we were #8 overall, #3 on offense, and #69 on defense. That’s a wild swing, but it also shows the volatility of in-season ratings. I’m legitimately excited to see how we respond.

1. We did improve from Maui, that's obvious. And our guys have LOTS of heart. A lesser team would have lost this game. That Dayton mojo is long gone.
2. However, we replaced a 6'8" strong wing/forward with a slight of frame guard. What exactly were you expecting???? And remember, Samson does not rebound! So you are already at a disadvantage when you lose Liam. And this is not to hate on Aidan, because he played his best game as a Husky!!! But he is not big and strong like Liam.
3. On an unrelated subject, something is going on with Stewart and Ross. They look lost right now. If this continues while Liam is out, I would love to see a little IA. In theory, he would solve the rebound issue, and he may well help solve the defensive issues as well. I do not see the practices. Dan Hurley has forgotten more basketball than I will ever know. But if you have a body like IA's on the bench and the team's only weaknesses are rebounding and defense, why not give him some minutes and see if you strike gold???

 

[J187Money]

It was really nice to have historic KenPom numbers last year, but they would have been historic even had we lost to Purdue and that would have sucked.

Auburn's numbers are better than ours were last year - but won't mean anything if they don't bring home a NC.

 

[Hoophound]

Going to very strongly disagree here. There's no way we win a championship without fixing the defensive issues, but it's not hard to imagine a run to the Sweet Sixteen or Elite Eight even if it just remains a mediocre defense

A run to the Sweet 16 or Elite 8 isn’t the kind of surprise run I’m talking about. That’s almost expected at this point given our success. I’m talking FF or better. That’s not happening with this D.

 

[WiseWillie]

This is definitely not a KP friendly team - we’ve been winning but it’s been anything but efficient and consistent. You usually need a few dominating performances mixed in to keep that up and we just don’t have much there. We are figuring out how to win. It’s unlikely to get much better with Liam out. Just need to grind out wins.

Yes, if anything Dan Hurley will be stressing playing consistently going forward. Too much in 2nd half of fighting back, taking the lead and then getting too complacent and slacking off. Games like that are what we can expect in the BE as every team wants to take down #1 and will play like they are in the BE championship.

 

[Inyatkin]

It was really nice to have historic KenPom numbers last year, but they would have been historic even had we lost to Purdue and that would have sucked.

Auburn's numbers are better than ours were last year - but won't mean anything if they don't bring home a NC.

That's what a one-and-done tournament will do. The list of KenPom No. 1s who did not win it all is a long one.

Which makes the last two years all the crazier

 

[ToolzieFan]

There’s a lot of room between “the metrics don’t matter” and “the sky is falling”. Bart ‘s site lets you compare teams with similar efficiency numbers - offensive rating, defensive rating, and tempo. If you look at the teams most similar to UConn whose seeds were similar to what we’d currently expect to get, you get this list:

Seven of 10 made the Sweet Sixteen, three made the Elite Eight, and one made the finals. That doesn’t sound so bad. We’re not last year’s powerhouse team, and we were never going to be. I’d take a likely Sweet Sixteen team and have some faith that either our coaching staff fixes some issues, or maybe we get hot at the right time. And if that doesn’t sound like a good season, you all need to think back to what Selection Sunday was like during the late-Kevin Ollie era.

Verifying Browser...

 

[CTBasketball]

Again now metrics are for nerds and you just keep pointing to them.

Well I am pro-Mahaney. I think this year’s success depends on his improvement in play and confidence.

So just like any American-media focal, I will twist the metrics to push my agenda. It’s the American way!

 

[Pmac923]

Plenty of teams with the same offensive juggernaut and meh defensive profile been steamrolled out of the tourney by UConn.

D wins championships.

According to KenPom we’d lose to Baylor and Gonzaga. We’ve seen how those matchups went. Sometimes you just toss the ball up and see how the game goes. If our offense regresses we can re-discuss but I fully expect us to keep getting better throughout the year. For an 8 game win streak this forum is very glum.

 

[JustbrewitMan]

The other thing to keep in mind with KenPom and other metric-based rankings is that they do try to adjust for quality of opponent, but it's very likely somewhat imperfect and subject to a lot of game-to-game variance. Players/Teams/Coaches aren't AI SimRobots. Yet.

So let's look at the recent data for one of our recent quality opponents - Gonzaga. Here's their current KenPom rating:

Looking great, with the #6 offense, #19 defense. Meanwhile, we're currently "horrible" at #134 defense and have been in a freefall. Glancing at the KP "Strength of schedule" data for Gonzaga, it looks like "on average", they've played pretty quality comp overall...all average metrics for their comp are in the upper 20's for SoS (Net, O, and D).

But let's look at the ORtg for the actual teams that they and we have played since our showdown in MSG...a great battle between 2 obviously quality teams who displayed very good offense and defense during that game [in general]:

For Gonzaga:

Nicholls - 239​

Bucknell - 344​

UCLA - 89​

Pepperidge Farms - 211​

Portland - 298​

Loyola Marymount - 203​

All of these teams they've played are also near the bottom quartile in 3pt% too (with the exception of UCLA, who is 103rd) so they're less likely to have a "hot" shooting game. As @RuffRuff likes to say, Gonzaga has played a bunch of tomato cans since our game.

For UConn:

Xavier - 46​

Butler - 86​

DePaul -123​

Providence - 107​

Xavier, Butler, and DePaul are high-level 3pt shooting teams, much more likely to get "hot" no matter what the D does.

Rhetorical Question:

Which team do you think is more likely to keep their KenPom DRtg and/or improve it over that stretch of games? Which one is more likely to drop spots?

 

[uconngb]

The algorithm may not have a factor for rivalry games or not recognize this as a rivalry game.

Rivalry?? What rivalry? We played Providence

 

[FfldCntyFan]

The algorithm may not have a factor for rivalry games or not recognize this as a rivalry game.

I doubt that there are more than three or four people who live more than 25 miles from downtown Cranston who recognize this as a rivalry game.