Josh Carlton AAC POY

[SCNCHuskie]

Who could win Player of the Year in every college basketball conference?

Every conference's Player of the Year race is heating up. Who's going to win -- and who's the top competition?

www.espn.com

“But Houston will enter Wednesday's key home game against SMU with an unblemished league record. Give Carlton a lot of credit for that. The 6-11 senior is averaging 14.6 PPG in league play and has shot 62% from inside the arc. With Carlton on the floor, the Cougars have averaged 114 points per 100 possessions, while holding opposing teams to just 84 points per 100 possessions, per hooplens.com.”

 

[UofCT]

That is awesome. Good for Josh. I will always remember Carlton dominating NBA ROY frontrunner Evan Mobley last season. Carlton dominated that game and was the best player on the court vs. USC.

 

[RM99]

I’m very happy for him. I watched Houston a few nights ago and they are good. Josh looks good out there and seems to be having fun!

 

[ThabeetDown]

Whatever that guy at ESPN is smoking is some good stuff. Josh is playing well. I'm happy for him. You're happy for him. But he isn't close to a conference POY. Maybe 3rd team. Let's be real with ourselves. ESPN continues to show why no one cares about them.

 

[businesslawyer]

As far as I'm concerned not enough good things can happen to Josh Carlton going forward. But did we really need another thread that's going to turn into whether we're patting Muntz on the back frequently enough?

 

[ThabeetDown]

That is awesome. Good for Josh. I will always remember Carlton dominating NBA ROY frontrunner Evan Mobley last season. Carlton dominated that game and was the best player on the court vs. USC.

I remember Whaley dominating Evan Mobley personally...Josh did have 9 & 11 though off the bench so I'll give him credit for that.

 

[UofCT]

I remember Whaley dominating Evan Mobley personally...Josh did have 9 & 11 though off the bench so I'll give him credit for that.

That’s why I had USC losing first round in my bracket. They went to elite 8.

 

[Dooooooomed]

Clearly a 2 man race between Josh Carlton and Vance Jackson.

 

[awfuldan]

Love to see this press for Josh, but doubt it's gonna happen in reality. Houston is the best team in that league by a mile but Josh isn't their best player. It would be really cool if he makes an All-Conference team though.

Meanwhile, Kendric Davis averages 20 a game for SMU, the second place team in the league? Sounds like a more reasonable POY to me.

 

[DaveHuskiesFan]

Whatever that guy at ESPN is smoking is some good stuff. Josh is playing well. I'm happy for him. You're happy for him. But he isn't close to a conference POY. Maybe 3rd team. Let's be real with ourselves. ESPN continues to show why no one cares about them.

#1 in Kenpoms unbiased POY rankings

 

[CL82]

Who could win Player of the Year in every college basketball conference?

Every conference's Player of the Year race is heating up. Who's going to win -- and who's the top competition?

www.espn.com

“But Houston will enter Wednesday's key home game against SMU with an unblemished league record. Give Carlton a lot of credit for that. The 6-11 senior is averaging 14.6 PPG in league play and has shot 62% from inside the arc. With Carlton on the floor, the Cougars have averaged 114 points per 100 possessions, while holding opposing teams to just 84 points per 100 possessions, per hooplens.com.”

Why can’t we get guys like that?

 

[gtcam]

Couldn't be happier for a really nice young man who landed is a place that made room for him and a really good coach who s/b in the HoF soon.
Doesn't really make much difference if he is 1st, 2nd, 3rd team AAC - he is a key contributing piece to a top 10 team.
Sorry it didn't work out for him at UConn but I wish much continual success

 

[UconnU]

#1 in Kenpoms unbiased POY rankingsView attachment 73128

4 guys from Houston in the top 5? Lol.

 

[navery12]

4 guys from Houston in the top 5? Lol.

I thought that was funny too. But Nova has 3 for the Big East, Arizona has 3 for the P12, Gonzaga 3 for the WCC so it doesn't seem as uncommon as I expected

 

[businesslawyer]

4 guys from Houston in the top 5? Lol.

I don't understand the "LOL." His computer is telling you that of the five players in the league that produce the most net benefit, four of them are Cougars. Yes, when writers vote for an all conference team they would not give the clear dominant team four of the spots. Writers pick based in part on precedent, expectations and politics, and computers analyze data.

So what in the world do you find funny about the statistical analysis?

 

[MexicoHusky]

I'm pulling for Josh. As much as anyone. But considering Sanogo sent Josh to the pine last year, there's a bit of a natural rivalry.

Does Sanogo get any consideration for BE POY? I say sure, why not. Numbers are comparable. Difference is, we are unlikely to win the BE. Houston should win the AAC. The standing of the team definitely impacts POY awards.

 

[UCLJ0211]

I don't understand the "LOL." His computer is telling you that of the five players in the league that produce the most net benefit, four of them are Cougars. Yes, when writers vote for an all conference team they would not give the clear dominant team four of the spots. Writers pick based in part on precedent, expectations and politics, and computers analyze data.

So what in the world do you find funny about the statistical analysis?

I think the humor is in fact that stats like this further solidify how much better Houston is than the rest of the conference.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

As far as I'm concerned not enough good things can happen to Josh Carlton going forward. But did we really need another thread that's going to turn into whether we're patting Muntz on the back frequently enough?

If I ever figure out how to change my signature line, watch out.

 

[Waquoit]

I don't understand the "LOL." His computer is telling you that of the five players in the league that produce the most net benefit, four of them are Cougars. Yes, when writers vote for an all conference team they would not give the clear dominant team four of the spots. Writers pick based in part on precedent, expectations and politics, and computers analyze data.

So what in the world do you find funny about the statistical analysis?

I'm thinking an algorithm that ends up with 4 players from 1 team is flawed.

 

[businesslawyer]

I'm thinking an algorithm that ends up with 4 players from 1 team is flawed.

Designing any computer program is an art, rather than a science, and requires many fairly arbitrary decisions. That having been said, if the team is dominating a conference why is it odd that a computer would determine that it has the best players?

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Josh was born 20 years too late. In a different era, we would have pounded the ball into him at least every other possession. In 2021, a misunderstanding of analytics leads some coaches to reject post play in order to jack up more contested 3’s.

I hope Carlton finds a style that is a fit for his skills.

This is a quote from March 2021 when Carlton announced he was transferring. I have many other pro-Carlton quotes, but I think this is the one that gets to the core of the issue I have always had with how Hurley used Carlton. There is a fundamental misunderstanding of where points come from that is polluting all aspects and all levels of basketball coaching. Hurley would have made the Sweet 16 if he coached last year's team differently and went big more often. He is doing it this year, and UConn is playing a lot better.

The coaches that figure the true analytics out first will be unstoppable because it is easy to find traditional centers now, and if you play them in a 3 pointer heavy offense, those centers will be incredibly productive.

 

[nomar]

I thought that was funny too. But Nova has 3 for the Big East, Arizona has 3 for the P12, Gonzaga 3 for the WCC so it doesn't seem as uncommon as I expected

Seems like his model gives too much weight to players' +/-

 

[navery12]

Designing any computer program is an art, rather than a science, and requires many fairly arbitrary decisions. That having been said, if the team is dominating a conference why is it odd that a computer would determine that it has the best players?

I guess the question is what the model is trying to predict. If it's trying to show the 5 best players from a conference then it seems like it's working and 4 players from one team is possible. If it's trying to predict who's going to win POY in the conference then I think it's doing a poor job just showing mostly players from the best team

 

[Hi-Low]

I'm happy for Josh honestly, seems like a great person and he had a nice UConn career.....but do we need a Josh thread every other day. Can we just have an all-encompassing monthly "Josh" thread ?

Thanks....now kill me

 

[John]

Very happy for him

 

[auror]

I guess the question is what the model is trying to predict. If it's trying to show the 5 best players from a conference then it seems like it's working and 4 players from one team is possible. If it's trying to predict who's going to win POY in the conference then I think it's doing a poor job just showing mostly players from the best team

It's trying to predict or at least mimic voters tendencies. But the thing is, the AAC is garbage and the model takes team strength strongly into account since the POY is almost always a guy on the best or top 3 team. Because Houston is so far in front, the odds of it being someone from Houston is approaching 100%. The next thing the model looks at is highly efficient high usage guys, But with Mack and Sasser hurt, Houston doesn't really have a go-to-guy.

I think White is their best and most important guy, but Carlton is certainly taking advantage of the space that White opens up. The value of playing 4-out, right @nelsonmuntz?

 

[businesslawyer]

I guess the question is what the model is trying to predict. If it's trying to show the 5 best players from a conference then it seems like it's working and 4 players from one team is possible. If it's trying to predict who's going to win POY in the conference then I think it's doing a poor job just showing mostly players from the best team

It's not trying to predict how sportswriters will vote. No sports computer program is based on predicting the way sportswriters or coaches will vote.

 

[upstater]

Reading down the list, I think Sanogo should be the BEs #2. You combine blocks with rebounds and points, also PPM and RPM. His offensive rebounds are far above the league.

Sanogo seems to me the conference's second most valuable player.

 

[Hey Adrien!]

Whatever that guy at ESPN is smoking is some good stuff. Josh is playing well. I'm happy for him. You're happy for him. But he isn't close to a conference POY. Maybe 3rd team. Let's be real with ourselves. ESPN continues to show why no one cares about them.

From KenPom:

So he's the MVP analytically.

Also, if we think critically we must remember where Houston's prospects were back in early January. In a short period of time they lost their best scorer (Sasser) and one of their best athletes (Mark) two quite strikes that dampened their title dreams.

Since their injuries, Carlton has totally stepped up, averaging 14.7 ppg.

Because of injuries to two of their guard/wings and thanks to Carlton (and Fabian White staying healthy), Houston's offense has turned
transitioned into a bigger lineup where they two 6'8+ guys about 60% of the time with Carlton playing alongside White or Chaney (both 6'8 230).

 

[auror]

Reading down the list, I think Sanogo should be the BEs #2. You combine blocks with rebounds and points, also PPM and RPM. His offensive rebounds are far above the league.

Sanogo seems to me the conference's second most valuable player.

His higher turnover rate and good but not great efficiency keep him out of the top echelon compared to hyper efficient guys on volume like Gillespie. He was number 5 before the game yesterday and the 6 TOs (and Dixon scoring 16 points on 9 shots with more assists than turnovers) bumped him down.