Josh Carlton AAC POY

[auror]

I guess the question is what the model is trying to predict. If it's trying to show the 5 best players from a conference then it seems like it's working and 4 players from one team is possible. If it's trying to predict who's going to win POY in the conference then I think it's doing a poor job just showing mostly players from the best team

It's trying to predict or at least mimic voters tendencies. But the thing is, the AAC is garbage and the model takes team strength strongly into account since the POY is almost always a guy on the best or top 3 team. Because Houston is so far in front, the odds of it being someone from Houston is approaching 100%. The next thing the model looks at is highly efficient high usage guys, But with Mack and Sasser hurt, Houston doesn't really have a go-to-guy.

I think White is their best and most important guy, but Carlton is certainly taking advantage of the space that White opens up. The value of playing 4-out, right @nelsonmuntz?

 

[businesslawyer]

I guess the question is what the model is trying to predict. If it's trying to show the 5 best players from a conference then it seems like it's working and 4 players from one team is possible. If it's trying to predict who's going to win POY in the conference then I think it's doing a poor job just showing mostly players from the best team

It's not trying to predict how sportswriters will vote. No sports computer program is based on predicting the way sportswriters or coaches will vote.

 

[upstater]

Reading down the list, I think Sanogo should be the BEs #2. You combine blocks with rebounds and points, also PPM and RPM. His offensive rebounds are far above the league.

Sanogo seems to me the conference's second most valuable player.

 

[Hey Adrien!]

Whatever that guy at ESPN is smoking is some good stuff. Josh is playing well. I'm happy for him. You're happy for him. But he isn't close to a conference POY. Maybe 3rd team. Let's be real with ourselves. ESPN continues to show why no one cares about them.

From KenPom:

So he's the MVP analytically.

Also, if we think critically we must remember where Houston's prospects were back in early January. In a short period of time they lost their best scorer (Sasser) and one of their best athletes (Mark) two quite strikes that dampened their title dreams.

Since their injuries, Carlton has totally stepped up, averaging 14.7 ppg.

Because of injuries to two of their guard/wings and thanks to Carlton (and Fabian White staying healthy), Houston's offense has turned
transitioned into a bigger lineup where they two 6'8+ guys about 60% of the time with Carlton playing alongside White or Chaney (both 6'8 230).

 

[auror]

Reading down the list, I think Sanogo should be the BEs #2. You combine blocks with rebounds and points, also PPM and RPM. His offensive rebounds are far above the league.

Sanogo seems to me the conference's second most valuable player.

His higher turnover rate and good but not great efficiency keep him out of the top echelon compared to hyper efficient guys on volume like Gillespie. He was number 5 before the game yesterday and the 6 TOs (and Dixon scoring 16 points on 9 shots with more assists than turnovers) bumped him down.

 

[ucp990411]

Couldn't be happier for a really nice young man who landed is a place that made room for him and a really good coach who s/b in the HoF soon.
Doesn't really make much difference if he is 1st, 2nd, 3rd team AAC - he is a key contributing piece to a top 10 team.
Sorry it didn't work out for him at UConn but I wish much continual success

Other than coaching for a long time why does Kelvin Sampson deserve to be in the HOF? Remember he got caught not once but twice with violations and was banned from college hoops for 5 years.

 

[Hungryhusky99]

Other than coaching for a long time why does Kelvin Sampson deserve to be in the HOF? Remember he got caught not once but twice with violations and was banned from college hoops for 5 years.

Because he wins?

 

[Dove]

I can't believe we had Josh Carlton and let him get away. Dammit.

 

[Dove]

Because he wins?

A shitton of coaches win.

 

[jibsey]

I don’t say he’s POY but glad he’s able to show his talent.

 

[businesslawyer]

This is a quote from March 2021 when Carlton announced he was transferring. I have many other pro-Carlton quotes, but I think this is the one that gets to the core of the issue I have always had with how Hurley used Carlton. There is a fundamental misunderstanding of where points come from that is polluting all aspects and all levels of basketball coaching. Hurley would have made the Sweet 16 if he coached last year's team differently and went big more often. He is doing it this year, and UConn is playing a lot better.

The coaches that figure the true analytics out first will be unstoppable because it is easy to find traditional centers now, and if you play them in a 3 pointer heavy offense, those centers will be incredibly productive.

Credit to where it is due. You held out for 130 minutes before patting yourself on the back for something that you've taken credit for many times before and we all know your opinion on. I didn't think you had it in you.

 

[ucp990411]

Because he wins?

I don’t deny he is a very good coach but 2 final fours and zero national championships I don’t think gets him in. Hall of fame should be reserved for the very best.

 

[navery12]

A shitton of coaches win.

I'd say about half of coaches win

 

[Dream Jobbed 2.0]

He just wasn’t a great fit here once Adama showed up.

 

[prankster]

I'm happy for the young man.

There was a lot of turmoil, much of it UConn induced, during his tenure as a Husky.

I'm genuinely happy for him that he was guided as he was.

I wish him every success.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Credit to where it is due. You held out for 130 minutes before patting yourself on the back for something that you've taken credit for many times before and we all know your opinion on. I didn't think you had it in you.

We are just getting started.

 

[Ratso]

go josh! go get some embiid numbers tonite! secure that POY

 

[USNavyDog]

Same here about Josh Carlon. Glad he is having a great year contributing for Houston. He paid his dues, worked hard to get better and now having his best year to date. Is it possible that he could get selected in the 1st round of the NBA draft? If not, he may be selected early in the 2nd round?

 

[willie99]

Awesome, continued success Josh

 

[nelsonmuntz]

It's trying to predict or at least mimic voters tendencies. But the thing is, the AAC is garbage and the model takes team strength strongly into account since the POY is almost always a guy on the best or top 3 team. Because Houston is so far in front, the odds of it being someone from Houston is approaching 100%. The next thing the model looks at is highly efficient high usage guys, But with Mack and Sasser hurt, Houston doesn't really have a go-to-guy.

I think White is their best and most important guy, but Carlton is certainly taking advantage of the space that White opens up. The value of playing 4-out, right @nelsonmuntz?

4 out is better than 5 out. I personally like the center at the high post and someone flashing baseline, but anything is better than a 5 out offensive set.

I would argue that Carlton is also helping the outside shooters. Inside/outside spacing is much better than perimeter spacing for getting high quality 3 point attempts. High level D1 athletes can rotate on defense easily with a ball being passed around the perimeter. Inside/out rotations are much harder (the defender usually has to turn around) and the 3 point shooter will catch the ball facing the basket on an inside/out pass, making it a quicker shot. So, not only does 5 out make it easier to defend the perimeter, it also If a coach wants to shoot more and better 3's, he needs someone inside.

 

[YellowMamba]

While I'm happy for Josh I still prefer that we have Sonogo manning the middle

 

[TRest]

Just watching smu trying to give the game away to Houston who refuses to take it. Josh on bench at end.

 

[Waquoit]

Just watching smu trying to give the game away to Houston who refuses to take it. Josh on bench at end.

The KenPom player of the conference sitting at the end? That's gotta be a mistake.

 

[TRest]

The KenPom player of the conference sitting at the end? That's gotta be a mistake.

I only saw the last couple of minutes and dont know if it was foul trouble or some other reason. SMU was fouling to prevent threes, I assume Josh might not be an ideal guy on the line at the end of games.

 

[imno1]

The KenPom player of the conference sitting at the end? That's gotta be a mistake.

I think he fouled out

I like Josh. Thought many on this board were too hard on him but he would be getting <10 mpg if he stayed. He's in a good situation in Houston. But Isn't POY in the AAC like being the skinniest kid at fat camp