OT: Jalen Green spurning Memphis, heading to G-League

[pj]

The big risk to the college game is really that the G-league becomes a revenue-positive source for the NBA. They start with 10 kids and a $5m payroll bump. After a year or two, NBA will decide that they should have two tiers - 10 $1m spots and 10 $500k spots. Kids refocus their goals from Duke or Kentucky to "G-league roster spot".

The big risk isn't 10 $1m spots, it's 200 $50k spots. If the top 200 high school players skip college to start in the pros every year -- and why wouldn't they if they get year-round professional coaching from NBA staffs? -- then the quality of college ball goes way down.

I doubt even Jim Calhoun could generate a lot of fan excitement with a starting 5 of Craig Austrie, Terence Samuel, Brendan Adams, Charles Okwandu, Tyler Olander. Most of whom were top 200 recruits. That's what the best college teams might start looking like.

 

[Robertelamin]

The big risk to the college game is really that the G-league becomes a revenue-positive source for the NBA. They start with 10 kids and a $5m payroll bump. After a year or two, NBA will decide that they should have two tiers - 10 $1m spots and 10 $500k spots. Kids refocus their goals from Duke or Kentucky to "G-league roster spot".

That’s true, the NBA could dump more money into the league if they wanted

 

[Kenny11]

The big risk isn't 10 $1m spots, it's 200 $50k spots. If the top 200 high school players skip college to start in the pros every year -- and why wouldn't they if they get year-round professional coaching from NBA staffs? -- then the quality of college ball goes way down.

I doubt even Jim Calhoun could generate a lot of fan excitement with a starting 5 of Craig Austrie, Terence Samuel, Brendan Adams, Charles Okwandu, Tyler Olander. Most of whom were top 200 recruits. That's what the best college teams might start looking like.

there are so few spots in the nba and even the g league. Most of the top 200 high school players wouldn’t be good enough to make a g league roster and about 150 of them will never have a real shot at the nba regardless of the path they take.

 

[pj]

there are so few spots in the nba and even the g league. Most of the top 200 high school players wouldn’t be good enough to make a g league roster and about 150 of them will never have a real shot at the nba regardless of the path they take.

Yes, the question is whether the G league can become a profitable spectator sport replacing college basketball. If you pay $50k each to the top 200 players every year, keep them in the G league 4 years on average, the total payroll is $40 million. With 800 players, 16 players per team, you have a 50-team national league. That's about the same size as the P5 college leagues.

NCAA gets $1 billion per year just for the tourney. That's more than enough to profitably fund a payroll of $40m for players plus coaches/staff. Add in gate revenue etc and why wouldn't the NBA do this? It's only antitrust concerns because it would put D1 college athletics out of business.

 

[Hey Adrien!]

This G-League rule is going to kill the college game.

It'll hurt a handful of schools and have no effect on a vast majority of college basketball.

As a college basketball fan, how many games have I watched where I was completely blown away from the "top level talent"? Washington didn't do much for me this year. Georgia sucked. Arizona wasn't great. Kentucky might have been a top-25 team...

Almost always the interesting teams are upper-classman leaden teams. This year, Baylor, Gonzaga, Dayton, San Diego State, Michigan State, Florida State...

With the Big East teams, you had Seton Hall, Creighton, Marquette, Xavier...really fun teams to watch and no big time freshman talent.

 

[Pmurph678]

We root for the Jerseys! Surprised how many people on this board think this will matter at all to college ball.

99% of college programs weren’t getting these players anyway, and the G-League is not going to start getting 200+ kids a year that’s crazy. There sniping top talent not trying to build a league to compete with the NCAA.

 

[Hurleyman216]

Yes, the question is whether the G league can become a profitable spectator sport replacing college basketball. If you pay $50k each to the top 200 players every year, keep them in the G league 4 years on average, the total payroll is $40 million. With 800 players, 16 players per team, you have a 50-team national league. That's about the same size as the P5 college leagues.

NCAA gets $1 billion per year just for the tourney. That's more than enough to profitably fund a payroll of $40m for players plus coaches/staff. Add in gate revenue etc and why wouldn't the NBA do this? It's only antitrust concerns because it would put D1 college athletics out of business.

The G-League doesn’t have the correct geographic footprint in my opinion. When you have teams in Eerie, PA and Southaven, MS it isn’t exactly aligned with big media markets.
All of this is driven by ticket sales but even more by media and advertising. Universities have such great following because they pump out thousands of graduates a year many of which become rabid fans. State schools like UConn, UK, etc. capture a large percentage of their whole state. That isn’t happening out of Eerie, PA. People watch college in part because they are amateurs. Not saying the G-league won’t become more popular, just don’t think they will displace the NCAA anytime soon.

 

[Robertelamin]

Isn’t the point of the G League to have borderline NBA players that can be called up? This wouldn’t serve any purpose.

 

[Stinger92860]

Ehhhh, I don't know. Personally I think I'd still take the $125k from the blue blood school and play in front of a rabid fanbase on TV.

If you are poor, there is big difference between getting 500k above board vs 125k and having to hide it. Plus these guys should be able to pick up local endorsements e.g. car dealerships, restaurants, etc. they can earn extra cash and take care of their families. This is good progress for kids whose career goals don’t include a college education.

 

[the Q]

$500k contract for one year? God bless the kid. Every top HS kid is going to take that offer.

Isaiah Todd is joining the same G-League team, plus it's in SoCal. College hoops teams might as well stop recruiting the top ten HS prospects.

Not to mention a year early on endorsements and shoe deal.

This kid would’ve been the slam dunk top pick in the draft this year without an age limit.

Although full disclose, this is supposed to be the worst draft since 2000.

But Todd won’t get that according to an ESPN article I read. More like 250k. But still also endorsements...

 

[McLovin]

Doesn't anyone care how this will affect poor Kentucky and Duke?

When I first saw this I had the same thought. Cal will actually have to coach and develop players now!

 

[CallMeBruce]

I’m curious if this is actually “good” for ELITE prospects or not. The national exposure from the G League unless they do something different is minimal to say the least. While 500k for a season is nice. A kid like Zion, if he takes that deal, also isn’t in a position with leverage to sign the 80+ million dollar endorsement deal

This is not an unreasonable point. Mitigating factors might be that certain kids carry enough cache straight from high school that it's not an issue, though in Zion's case, he wasn't even the top player in his grad class, so he probably wouldn't have. Perhaps if the top 10 or so players go straight to the G League every year, people might start watching the G League a little bit.

 

[Jbirdp5]

There's a difference between "good for his brand" and "has no leverage". HUGE difference.


Based on what exactly?

Kids are getting a couple hundred thousand dollars from sneaker companies while in HS to push them to certain schools. Why in the world would they "need" the G League to prove their marketability?

Provide some evidence or rationale rather than just making blanket proclamations.


The viral thunder-dunks delivered by Zion Williamson don't merely demoralize opponents. They have made him better known than any prep star ever. (Yes, including LeBron.)



You don't know that. It's a supposition that you'll never be able to prove (nor would I ever be able to disprove it). But let's play this silly game anyway.

You're moving the goalposts. You didn't say "he wouldn't have gotten as much without Duke".

You said this:
"While 500k for a season is nice. A kid like Zion, if he takes that deal, also isn’t in a position with leverage to sign the 80+ million dollar endorsement deal"

What does $500k have to do with an $80 million contract? You think Nike is going to say (internally) "Well we were going to give him $80MM, but he's getting $500k from the G League, so let's offer up $10MM, he's got no leverage now"

His value to the G League, and his value to the sneaker company, are entirely different. And they don't factor in his NBA salary in their valuation of his worth to them.

How many of his sneakers they can sell, has nothing to do with how much the G league pays him, and therefore doesn't impact his leverage in any way.

Explain your argument instead of just repeating the same statements.

Using Zion and Lebron to prove your argument is the problem. You picked the two generational talents from the last 20 years.....I don’t think Jalen green falls in that category. Don’t think this will create a lot more buzz for him. This is a better move for kids who end up flaming out because they get a nice chunk of change in the bank. For the kids you mentioned they could go to college go to Europe go to where ever and they were going to be household names.
this move is smart for people money wise but who knows if it gets them a better shoe deal. That will have to be proven

 

[CallMeBruce]

It'll hurt a handful of schools and have no effect on a vast majority of college basketball.

As a college basketball fan, how many games have I watched where I was completely blown away from the "top level talent"? Washington didn't do much for me this year. Georgia sucked. Arizona wasn't great. Kentucky might have been a top-25 team...

Almost always the interesting teams are upper-classman leaden teams. This year, Baylor, Gonzaga, Dayton, San Diego State, Michigan State, Florida State...

With the Big East teams, you had Seton Hall, Creighton, Marquette, Xavier...really fun teams to watch and no big time freshman talent.

While you're not wrong about this year, this year's freshman class is the weakest we've seen in the one-and-done era, so it makes sense that veteran teams were so dominant this year. In other years, we've had schools like Duke and Kentucky dominate with largely inexperienced rosters. That being said, I think top players going straight to the G-League would make seasons like this one more common, and I'm OK with that.

 

[Jbirdp5]

The big risk isn't 10 $1m spots, it's 200 $50k spots. If the top 200 high school players skip college to start in the pros every year -- and why wouldn't they if they get year-round professional coaching from NBA staffs? -- then the quality of college ball goes way down.

I doubt even Jim Calhoun could generate a lot of fan excitement with a starting 5 of Craig Austrie, Terence Samuel, Brendan Adams, Charles Okwandu, Tyler Olander. Most of whom were top 200 recruits. That's what the best college teams might start looking like.

Is that at all realistic? In 4 years that’s 800 kids. No way the g league has the infrastructure for that or the nba cares to develop it

 

[BlueDogs]

Green is also being awarded a "college scholarship" he can use at a later date. So I guess the G-League is putting ~$200k in escrow that he can access at a later date to attend college. Good lord.

The NBA covered every aspect of this.

After taxes the kid will have 250K in his pocket, and after living expenses, buying a car, and dropping big $$ on clubs and other stupid buys, he’ll have next to nothing. This against the prospect of a major injury and walking away with no life skills seems to be exactly why a little schooling might be a better path.

 

[huskypantz]

Is that at all realistic? In 4 years that’s 800 kids. No way the g league has the infrastructure for that or the nba cares to develop it

It’s a 1 year contract. I’d imagine g league is year to year. I don’t think the NBA wants more than 20 kids per year. How many freshmen are actually ready for the NBA? You get a crop each year. Let’s say 2/3 get drafted. The rest go back to the G, head overseas or flop. Even some of the current draftees get stashed in the G league as it stands. Rinse and repeat.

The more I think about it, this would make college more competitive top to bottom without the elite talents. Flip side is that college to NBA pipeline is impaired.

 

[Husky25]

Can anyone explain (serious question) why kids can play in the G League out of HS, but not the NBA? These are 18 year old adults, if they think their best option is going straight to the NBA then let them go.

Quite simply, the NBA does not want to pay an 18 year old millions of dollars for basketball development or to play wet nurse off the court to protect their investment on the court.

Age of majority does not an adult make.

 

[Jbirdp5]

It’s a 1 year contract. I’d imagine g league is year to year. I don’t think the NBA wants more than 20 kids per year. How many freshmen are actually ready for the NBA? You get a crop each year. Let’s say 2/3 get drafted. The rest go back to the G, head overseas or flop. Even some of the current draftees get stashed in the G league as it stands. Rinse and repeat.

The more I think about it, this would make college more competitive top to bottom without the elite talents. Flip side is that college to NBA pipeline is impaired.

My question was in response to someone who basically wanted to give 200 kids 50k

 

[pj]

My question was in response to someone who basically wanted to give 200 kids 50k

It wasn't a matter of wanting ... it was an explanation of why this could grow into a threat to college athletics. The NBA has the option of forming a highly profitable league that is a better deal for top-200 players than college basketball.

This threat is why the NCAA is becoming open to paying players, and giving them easier transfers etc. If the NBA and G-league weren't making moves toward competing with college, NCAA would hoard all the profits to themselves.

 

[Jbirdp5]

It wasn't a matter of wanting ... it was an explanation of why this could grow into a threat to college athletics. The NBA has the option of forming a highly profitable league that is a better deal for top-200 players than college basketball.

This threat is why the NCAA is becoming open to paying players, and giving them easier transfers etc. If the NBA and G-league weren't making moves toward competing with college, NCAA would hoard all the profits to themselves.

I just don’t think that’s realistic at all. Your talking about baseball level minor leagues with the numbers you are talking. Too much infrastructure to create and not to mention sure 50 k is nice but if ya get squeezes out after the first year and now you can’t go to college ur screwed. I don’t think it would wipe out college basketball

 

[navery12]

This is crazy. There's no scenario where the top 200 kids are going to the G league every year unless the NBA is forming 5 separate minor leagues.

Even if you assume nobody is drafted from the NCAA to NBA anymore that's 60 players leaving the G league and 200 coming in every year.

 

[the Q]

This is crazy. There's no scenario where the top 200 kids are going to the G league every year unless the NBA is forming 5 separate minor leagues.

Even if you assume nobody is drafted from the NCAA to NBA anymore that's 60 players leaving the G league and 200 coming in every year.

Exactly. We’re probably talking about 3-5 kids per year. Just like before the age limit kicked in.

 

[HooperScooper]

This is pretty funny. Mostly because it's about Duke.

Beal, who was a one-and-done at Florida, apparently would have been all over this.

“These kids are gonna say F college,” the Washington Wizards guard said, per The Athletic’s Fred Katz. “Just play in the G League and enter the draft? Where do I sign?

That opened up some fun back-and-forth, as Tatum says he might have turned down $500,000 and stayed loyal to his blueblood, Duke, where he spent one year.

“So Duke gave you $600,000?” Beal joked, as the Boston Celtics star defended his school.

“Hey, Duke might be the only stand-up school in the country,” Tatum responded.

We love you Tatum, but come on, man. Beal clearly got a kick out of that answer, too.

“Listen man, I was born, but I wasn’t born yesterday.”

Bradley Beal Jokes Jayson Tatum Got Paid At Duke Discussing NBA G League - NESN.com

NBA stars Jayson Tatum and Bradley Beal hopped on an Instagram Live broadcast together, and the St. Louis natives’ discussion led them to the NBA’s new G League initiative. The new program would allow elite high school prospects to skip college and focus on their NBA development, to provide a...

nesn.com

 

[UconnU]

Still no class of 2020 commits for Memphis lol.

 

[olehead]

When this becomes the norm, which it will be in about a year for the elite prospects, I'd expect that you'll see more coverage for G League games than you currently do. Plus these HS kids can now sign shoe deals, etc right out of HS. We need to remember that these are the Top 5-10 players, not just players who think they are good. These are the players who'd skip college anyway and likely end up with a shoe deal and endorsement deals once they were drafted anyway. I don't see why anyone wouldn't offer that to them now.

I can't see what's not good about getting 500k for a year before getting a multi million dollar deal after that. I'd rather that than play for free and risk injury before getting drafted.

This deal provides the opportunity for attaining an education funded through this NBA program.

 

[bfs3]

I doubt it. People only follow players because they played for their favorite college team or play for their favorite NBA team. The G-league is stuck in the middle and has no following whatsoever. A couple of top prospects aren’t going to change that overnight. Glad the kid got his $500K, but we’ll see if it pays off for him in the long run. You get so much more media exposure in the NCAA, especially in the tournament. You can argue I’m wrong, but most G-League teams would compete with or beat the best college teams, yet very few follow the G-League.

You don’t think if Zion was on a G league team ESPN wouldn’t find a way to air some of the games? They air high school games every year. I’m sure that’s exactly what the NBA is thinking.

Im hoping they off Dior a contract, Westry goes somewhere else and Syracuse loses any future hope of competing.

Im more worried that Duke and Kentucky just start their efforts at recruiting top 25 guys instead of 1-10. Lowering the level of talent that everyone else competes for.

 

[BlueMAB]

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2 High school kids in this list. We can make the what if argument on some of the 1 & done rule wasn’t in place, but we also don’t see any euro league players or others on this list.

You used perhaps the worst player to demonstrate your point.

1) that list you provided dates back over 20 years, but during roughly 15 of those years no HS kids could be drafted. So it's not very useful.

2) It includes very high profile players who weren't good enough to have gone straight to the pros. Guys like Allen Iverson was never going to that contract straight out of HS.

3) Of the one and dones, Zion got far and away more money than anyone else.

4) The point is Zion doesn't need to be the #1 prospect. He's a highlight reel. He's going to attract eyeballs regardless of whether he goes to Duke, Kentucky, UConn, Kansas, or UNC. He was going to be huge and was going to get a ton of money because of the wow factor.

Did going to Duke get him more money than going to Kentucky would have? Or Kansas? Or UNC? How do you know/prove that? What about UConn? Would he have only gotten $20 MM? How do you quantify that?

It's all speculation on your part.

People keep saying he's not the best prospect in his class. So what? He was still the number one draft pick, and got the second highest rookie sneaker contract ever. That wasn't because he went to Duke.

RJ Barrett went to Duke, was the number one player in his class, and signed with Puma for an undisclosed amount. But he just can't do the things Zion can, and doesn't attract as wide of an audience. So even though he's probably the better player, he was drafted after Zion, and (by all reports) got a lesser sneaker deal than Zion.

Guys like Zion don't "need" any leverage from any college brand. Any of the blue bloods will help, but they aren't needed.

Guys like Marvin Bagley stand to benefit far more.

 

[BlueMAB]

Using Zion and Lebron to prove your argument is the problem. You picked the two generational talents from the last 20 years.....I don’t think Jalen green falls in that category. Don’t think this will create a lot more buzz for him. This is a better move for kids who end up flaming out because they get a nice chunk of change in the bank. For the kids you mentioned they could go to college go to Europe go to where ever and they were going to be household names.
this move is smart for people money wise but who knows if it gets them a better shoe deal. That will have to be proven

I think you're responding to the wrong person. That's similar to the point I was making.

 

[Jbirdp5]

I think you're responding to the wrong person. That's similar to the point I was making.

You had said Zion and Lebron didn’t need college to get huge contracts/be household names. My point was those guys are the exception not the rule when it comes to most top 5 high school seniors