It's Talent and It's Recruiting

[CTBasketball]

Well I can't promise not to be dense but I'll just try to keep up with your obviously superior intellect. So we had superior talent from '94 to 2009 and won two championships but then had a decline in our talent from 2010 to 2014 and...won two championships. Wow the impact of that fall off in recruiting is staggering!

So while I try not to be dense, will you try not to be reactionary?

Here a gift just for you:

This is the post of the day.

 

[Danzz]

Well what happened to Samuel? He was a very solid contributor off the bench for a National Champion team. He just all of a sudden regressed?

He was a solid contributor for maybe the last third of the season. Before that as a freshman he didn't play much and according to KO it was because he didn't understand his position in the offense. He can contribute by eating some minutes at PG and playing solid defense-two things he is capable of. His strength on offense is driving to the rim but that was a lot easier last season with Bazz opening up the paint as 3 PT threat. This season the lane is clogged up because of our poor outside shooting so that limits his effectiveness and he may actually see less time as we need outside shooting threats.
This team is still developing and because of injuries KO still doesn't know what he has. The starting lineup is not the lineup we would have if everyone is healthy.

 

[upstater]

Don't be dense. Our recruiting for the last 3 years has been measurably worse than it was in the preceding 20 years. There were extenuating circumstances, but that doesn't change the fact that as a result we are currently undertalented relative to previous teams.

bi

There was a period between 2002 and 2008 where UConn recruited at a very high level that outdid 1986-2001 and also 2009-2014. Other than a brief moment of recruiting in the late 1970s when I started watching, this was the highlight of UConn recruiting. UConn recruiting over the last couple of years is not different than 1986-2001 and not different than 2009-2012. The big difference this year is a hole in recruiting, if you want to call it that, and the hole is lack of a PG. Now, we tried last year with Snider, Lyle, Perkins and the like, but none of them came. I was one of the people pointing out that you want a young PG to take over the reins from Boatright, but so many others said we are fine.

You always need a second PG. Always.

Other than that, the team is not that differently constructed than the 2011 and 2014 championship teams. It is not as talented as those teams, of course, but it's building towards it. And the same posters who said the 2014 team had little talent, but wait for this year's very talented team, are now flip-flopping that point-of-view.

 

[Tenspro2002]

Well I can't promise not to be dense but I'll just try to keep up with your obviously superior intellect. So we had superior talent from '94 to 2009 and won two championships but then had a decline in our talent from 2010 to 2014 and...won two championships. Wow the impact of that fall off in recruiting is staggering!

So while I try not to be dense, will you try not to be reactionary?

Here's a gift just for you:

The gift is much appreciated.

I can't argue the championships, facts are facts. But it's illustrative to look beyond just championships.

From 1994 to 2009 (16 years):
9 regular season conference champs
10 #2 seeds or better
13 #5 seeds or better
9 Sweet 16s
7 Elite 8s

From 2010 to present (5 years) [6 years including this one]:
0 regular season conference champs [possible this year in an awful conference)
0 #2 seeds or better [not happening this year]
1 #5 seeds or better [very unlikely this year]
2 Sweet 16s
2 Elite 8s

The kind of runs we had in 2011 and 2014 are just not a sustainable mode of success over the long term. If we have the kind of seasons we've had from 2010 to present for the next 50 years, we win maybe 1-2 championships on a unanticipated run or in a rare season where the stars align. If we return to 1994-2009 form, we're in contention at worst every other year, and probably a championship every 5-10 years.

You can say -- and I can't argue with -- "I'd rather have been mediocre most of the time but win 2 championships in 4 years, than to have been consistently great but not win a championship". The problem is, going forward, being consistently great is what's going to lead to more championships. And we have not been consistently great for half a decade.

 

[CL82]

The gift is much appreciated.

I can't argue the championships, facts are facts. But it's illustrative to look beyond just championships.

From 1994 to 2009 (16 years):
9 regular season conference champs
10 #2 seeds or better
13 #5 seeds or better
9 Sweet 16s
7 Elite 8s

From 2010 to present (5 years) [6 years including this one]:
0 regular season conference champs [possible this year in an awful conference)
0 #2 seeds or better [not happening this year]
1 #5 seeds or better [very unlikely this year]
2 Sweet 16s
2 Elite 8s

The kind of runs we had in 2011 and 2014 are just not a sustainable mode of success over the long term. If we have the kind of seasons we've had from 2010 to present for the next 50 years, we win maybe 1-2 championships on a unanticipated run or in a rare season where the stars align. If we return to 1994-2009 form, we're in contention at worst every other year, and probably a championship every 5-10 years.

You can say -- and I can't argue with -- "I'd rather have been mediocre most of the time but win 2 championships in 4 years, than to have been consistently great but not win a championship". The problem is, going forward, being consistently great is what's going to lead to more championships. And we have not been consistently great for half a decade.

Glad you liked it.

After 2011, the common wisdom was that it was a one only fluke and while great would never happen again. Yet lo and behold in 2014 lighting struck a second time. Is it a bigger fluke or does Connecticut's 2 guard approach work without burger AAs at every other position? I'd love to be landing top kid's year in and year out but it isn't necessary for success. I'll leave it to someone more ambitious than me to do a break down of HS class rank of our guys vs. others and plot it on a matrix of post season success. I suspect that it not quite as linear as you believe.

 

[8893]

You've got to keep up to date. Talent and recruiting were last season's problems; your premise is so 2013.

 

[David 76]

Somewhere between WE"RE DOOMED (forever) and...
everything is fine WE'RE UCONN.
is the truth. It is hard to see our guard play being as good as last year's and that (plus a hot Deandre in the tourney).
A healthy Purvis would help a lot but it still won't be Bazz, Boat, Kromah .

Meanwhile, while AB is improved, we still have the same problem with rebounding

 

[Jay-Bone]

The OP is right and the people bashing him are the same people who refuse to awknowledge anything negative relating to the program.

I've been worried about this for a while now. And this summer as we continued to swing and miss at all those recruits that we shouldn't have everyone keeps saying "no were uconn we find diamonds in the rough" and then list off Okafor who is a once in a lifetime guy. Of course we've developed plenty of guys and had a lot of success doing so. But that was also wih Jim Calhoun who was probably the best ever at it. And you also need some stars too.

The fact is basically every guy on this team besides boat omar and Hamilton was a backup option. Yeah facey and samuel were good regional guys but they were borderline top 100 at best and if I remember correctly both were signed in the spring which would imply we went after them after other options fell thru.

Cassel was added because we had no one else. Same for Nolan lubin and as much upside as he has, brimah as well. We have ten guys and only three were legit target recruits.

This is what happens. Samuel and cassell would be nice role guys who could come off the bench for a few minutes but can't be expected to play 30 min a game. Lubin and Nolan have no business seeing the court. Facey and brimah have tons of upside but have limited skills and are far from finished products. They should be backups right now. And they would be on most uconn teams from 99-12. Brimah has starter talent and is good enough but he's too inconsistent right now.

We really shouldn't be surprised. We'll see what omar and purvis cam be when they get healthy but it's a legitimate concern. The coaching staff has to do a better job recruiting. Glen Miller seems like a nice guy and I'm sure he's a decent coach but can anyone really see recruits lining up to play for him? The guy is boring as hell and has as much charisma as a tomato can. The staff needs a star recruiter.

The 2nd half of the Texas game they were pretty damn tough. Injury riddled right now, Boat continuously trying to dribble between the opponent's legs, they were a chicken with its head cut off last night. This team has potential to be solid, it just has to all come together. They've gotten themselves behind the 8-ball right now, and as long as they don't implode there is still the possibility of salvaging a decent year and making the tourney. But it will be very tough for them to get through a Kentucky or Duke this year anyway. It will take another 2011, 2014 miracle to cut down the nets. Good thing we're the best school in the country at performing miracles. I don't foresee number 5, but I think it will still be fun watching them throughout the season. Two years ago I was much, much more concerned about the state of Uconn men's basketball.

 

[Gurleyman]

I'm rehashing what we all know, but this year's team should be in a bad situation due to the huge hurdles we had to overcome. This year's senior class (Boat) was affected by the loss of 3 scholarships, so we couldn't fill out with long term depth. The following year (Omar, Phil) was affected by the fact we were going on probation. Then the following year (Facey, Samuel, Brimah) was affected by the sudden coaching change. That's a lot to overcome in a short time. It shouldn't surprise anyone if a team that was handcuffed three years in a row on the recruiting trail would have a down year when those classes were seniors, juniors and sopha.

But we've to a large degree overtime it - winning a title in spite of all that was remarkable. And this year's team should in theory have enough talent. A senior leader in the backcourt and two top 20 recruits on the wings (without the Omar derailment we'd have another top 35 wing as well), with an elite rim protector and a young athletic top-75 4 who could be a solid role player. Purvis hasn't been healthy and hasn't looked the part yet, and Facey is still in the "showing flashes" phase of his career. So we have been asking Samuel, Nolan and Cassell to do more than we would probably like to early in the year. If Purvis starts to look like a guy who was the No 12 recruit in the country, things fall into place a little more. If it turns out that he's only an 8-9 ppg guy, it puts more pressure on Hamilton to grow up quickly and that's probably asking too much. And there is the legitimate concern about shooting, floor spacing and how the pieces fit. It's a little like 2010 in that regard, but I have more faith in this year's team because I know our senior leader is going to fight until the bitter end as long as he's wearing our jersey. He won't quit - just not in his DNA. And it may take time, but the rest of the team will hopefully fall in line behind him. The ball might not go in the net enough, but we'll give the effort.

The thing is, though, that you can't assign macro problems to an era in which three straight recruiting classes suffered with micro, but massive handicaps (down 3 schollies, going on probation, last minute coaching change). Those are hurdles we only dealt with this once. And even with all that, we won a title anyway. If you can't appreciate that, and instead interpret this current two-national titles in three tries era as a sign of long term problems, you're looking for the touch of grey in every silver lining.

Now our conference situation and the possible long term effects of being in a league with East Carolina and Tulane - that's admittedly worth some angst. I think 2016 will be the most pressure-filled recruiting class since 2006 (or maybe 2010), figuring that Hamilton and Brimah may only have one more year. We have to replenish some talent soon, and it may indeed be difficult. Adams is a great start, though.

 

[Jay-Bone]

I'm rehashing what we all know, but this year's team should be in a bad situation due to the huge hurdles we had to overcome. This year's senior class (Boat) was affected by the loss of 3 scholarships, so we couldn't fill out with long term depth. The following year (Omar, Phil) was affected by the fact we were going on probation. Then the following year (Facey, Samuel, Brimah) was affected by the sudden coaching change. That's a lot to overcome in a short time. It shouldn't surprise anyone if a team that was handcuffed three years in a row on the recruiting trail would have a down year when those classes were seniors, juniors and sopha.

But we've to a large degree overtime it - winning a title in spite of all that was remarkable. And this year's team should in theory have enough talent. A senior leader in the backcourt and two top 20 recruits on the wings (without the Omar derailment we'd have another top 35 wing as well), with an elite rim protector and a young athletic top-75 4 who could be a solid role player. Purvis hasn't been healthy and hasn't looked the part yet, and Facey is still in the "showing flashes" phase of his career. So we have been asking Samuel, Nolan and Cassell to do more than we would probably like to early in the year. If Purvis starts to look like a guy who was the No 12 recruit in the country, things fall into place a little more. If it turns out that he's only an 8-9 ppg guy, it puts more pressure on Hamilton to grow up quickly and that's probably asking too much. And there is the legitimate concern about shooting, floor spacing and how the pieces fit. It's a little like 2010 in that regard, but I have more faith in this year's team because I know our senior leader is going to fight until the bitter end as long as he's wearing our jersey. He won't quit - just not in his DNA. And it may take time, but the rest of the team will hopefully fall in line behind him. The ball might not go in the net enough, but we'll give the effort.

The thing is, though, that you can't assign macro problems to an era in which three straight recruiting classes suffered with micro, but massive handicaps (down 3 schollies, going on probation, last minute coaching change). Those are hurdles we only dealt with this once. And even with all that, we won a title anyway. If you can't appreciate that, and instead interpret this current two-national titles in three tries era as a sign of long term problems, you're looking for the touch of grey in every silver lining.

Now our conference situation and the possible long term effects of being in a league with East Carolina and Tulane - that's admittedly worth some angst. I think 2016 will be the most pressure-filled recruiting class since 2006 (or maybe 2010), figuring that Hamilton and Brimah may only have one more year. We have to replenish some talent soon, and it may indeed be difficult. Adams is a great start, though.

Precisely, this is the first sensible post I've read on here since yesterday at 7:00. Refreshing. Take note young yarders.

 

[Chief00]

The dirty secret is the Admissions Dept overreacted to APR.

 

[DogMania]

They have enough to work with. Its the chemistry that needs serious tweaking. Also they are all new to each other, which doesn't help.

If Texas didn't hit that shot this wouldn't have been posted.

Agree 100%. I recorded the game and watched it afterwards. What stood out to me was how slow and mechanical they looked when executing their half court offense. They had the same problem early on last season.

Many seem to forget that every player on the team has a new role from what they had last season. They'll get better, but what's not working in their favor is the games that can help build their resume will likely take place before they put it all together. They will likely need to finish first or second in the AAC conference or win the conference tournament to make the NCAA tournament.

 

[mauconnfan]

I believe they need to get better at positions and recruiting will need to amp up a little but it's not the reason for any of these losses. We have the pieces to have beaten Texas and Yale easily. Not on recruiting at this point but moving forward, if Facey and the wings don't have more than what we see (minus DHam), we will need some help. But it's still an unknown thanks partially to injuries which have hampered chemistry and growth.

 

[UConnSwag11]

posted this in another thread...

michigan loses to njit, green bay won on the road against 15 miami 68-53...virginia beat almighty shaka... and wisconsin won a shootout 49-38 against marquette...florida has fallen off the map and they play yale next at home... wvu the came out and bullied us bc they blitzed us with their style of play, other than the wvu we had the number 6 team in the nation beat without 2 of our starters, a defensive miscue, boat rolling his ankle and a last second three within 4 seconds texas pulled off the win... yale we were without purvis, calhoun, and a healthy boat and another last second three, no one has the experience to help boat out... our losses arent "bad" it's the way weve lost... we have to move on to the next game and start coming together

the only reason people are freaking out is because we are in the aac, if we were michigan or florida would you be freaking out? most likely not, we've won 2 NC and been to 3 final fours since '09, other school would be killing for that... the kids and coaches have no control over the conference they want to be in, that's all on the the president and ad... these kids are still learning the game they need time, if things arent addressed and fixed by mid jan than we have something to worry about