It will be hard to keep this team from scoring 100 points

[Tonyc]

Tony if that was the intent CFerr's post then I completely missed it. I cannot think of a UCONN team in the past decade and a half that was not capable of scoring 100 points depending on the opponent. There is no celebration, moment of joy, or even buffalo wings when a UCONN WCBB team scores 100 points-so what would be the point? I though the intent of the post was to point out that this team maybe one of most prolific scoring teams in UCONN history.

Good Point and I agree. This team has the potential and the players to be a very high s.coring offense and with their balance it will be very hard to keep them from scoring

 

[billnaples]

Breanna Stewart - 25 minutes; 19 points
Moriah Jefferson - 26 minutes; 14 points
Morgan Tuck - 23 minutes; 14 points
Kia Nurse - 25 minutes; 12 points
Saniya Chong - 17 minutes; 7 points
Gabby Williams - 15 minutes; 10 points
Katie Lou Samuelson - 15 minutes; 8 points
Napheesa Collier - 15 minutes; 7 points
Natalie Butler - 12 minutes; 6 points
Courtney Ekmark - 12 minutes; 3 points
De'Janae Boykins - 10 minutes; 4 points
Brianna Pulido - 2 1/2 minutes; .3 points
Tierney Lawlor - 2 1/2 minutes; .5 points


totals: 200 minutes; 104.8 points... I just don't know how there is enough basketballs to go around with this team. We all know from experience that no team is going to average 100 points. But unless Geno deliberately puts the brakes on, plays the reserves a lot of minutes I just don't see how this high octane group of competitors doesn't score 100 points.

Imagine the pace of the conversation here if a UConn jersey had actually been seen on the court and in a practice or a game. There should be no question that barring injury or transfer this roster may well be the deepest in many years. From a practical perspective most feel that the four returning starters will all keep their spot. They should, best guess, play near the same minutes (about 100). So now all us talent wizards get to do our best impression of GA, CD, and any other staff who get input into the decision about who will or not get the starting nod and how many minutes she will get and how will the leftover minutes be used. So we got some what, 11 weeks, before we find out for sure. Williams, Chong, and Ekmark based on past performance are not likely starters. Butler having spent a full year in pratice with CD and Geno would seem to have a huge head start over some very good prospective freshman.

 

[cferraro04]

I think based on last year's performance that Williams has just as good a chance to be a starter as anyone else not Moriah, Breanna, Morgan or Kia.

 

[HoopsFan21]

Imagine the pace of the conversation here if a UConn jersey had actually been seen on the court and in a practice or a game. There should be no question that barring injury or transfer this roster may well be the deepest in many years. From a practical perspective most feel that the four returning starters will all keep their spot. They should, best guess, play near the same minutes (about 100). So now all us talent wizards get to do our best impression of GA, CD, and any other staff who get input into the decision about who will or not get the starting nod and how many minutes she will get and how will the leftover minutes be used. So we got some what, 11 weeks, before we find out for sure. Williams, Chong, and Ekmark based on past performance are not likely starters. Butler having spent a full year in pratice with CD and Geno would seem to have a huge head start over some very good prospective freshman.

Not to mention one of the freshman hasn't played in months.

 

[Carnac]

The best shot blocker in the nation, Kiah Stokes, never averaged more than 18.5 in any season at UConn. Breanna Stewart, the best player in the nation, averaged 28 last season. I'll put the over/under on Butler's minutes at 18, and probably take the under.

Who knows what Geno is going to do? This is September 7, at this point, I'll bet even HE has no idea what he's going to do yet. This is my thinking on why Natalie will play about 25 (or there-a-bouts) mpg.

WCBB will begin playing 10 minutes quarters this season. All of my numbers are assuming Natalie is a starter. If she's NOT a starter, then throw these numbers out with the bath water.

1sr qtr - I'm guessing she'll play at least 7 minutes.
2nd qtr - at least 7 minutes. (that's 14 minutes in the first half)

Second half - at least 11 minutes. Some (not all) games will be won by the end of the 3rd quarter. There may be some games that she does not take the floor in the forth quarter. At this point, we don't know who her "designated" back-up will be. There will be games that Geno does not want to run up the score, plus he'll want to give the bench players some floor time to see how they are progressing.
That's why I'm suggesting a least 11 minutes in the 2nd half. 7 + 7 +11 = 25. This is how I arrived at 25 mpg.

I'm also assuming the following:

1. Geno will want his starters to jell, and jell asap. This can only happen by them playing together at least 60% of all games before the tournaments begin, including the blowouts.
The games vs Notre Dame and South Carolina will require the starters play about 36-38 minutes each as they did last year. If you doubt me, review the game film for these two games. Notice the time left when Geno began to pull his starters.
2. She avoids early game (1-2 qtr) foul trouble.
3. She does not suffer any temporary or long term injury.

This prognostication might be spot on, or I just may be pontificating out of my anal orifice. We'll see.

 

[Sluconn Husky]

The games vs Notre Dame and South Carolina will require the starters play about 36-38 minutes each as they did last year. If you doubt me, review the game film for these two games. Notice the time left when Geno began to pull his starters.

This prognostication might be spot on, or I just may be pontificating out of my anal orifice. We'll see.

No, it's a good explanation for your theory. I just start with the notion that the other four starters are going to play about 100-105 minutes on average. If Butler gets 25+ per game then the other six players have roughly 70 minutes to share between them and I don't believe that works. To get that many minutes Butler is going to have to prove that she's of a very high caliber and do it as a sophomore.

I'm not sure about the ND and SC games either. The rosters from the past two years are different. Williams and Nurse likely won't be held back minutes wise in those games this year. And Collier and Samuelson are too good to sit as well. Last season Geno tightened his rotation to 5-1/2 the few times he felt it was necessary. This season I think that number will go up to 7-8 in big games.

 

[UcMiami]

Carnac - just one correction on your post - in none of the SC, NDx2, and MD (FF) games did all five starters play 30+ minutes - Kia was under 30 minutes in all of them and Moriah was at 21 minutes in the first ND game (her worst of the year?)

With the strength of the bench this year I could easily see starters averaging 7 minutes in Q1, but I think by Q2 in most games their average may drop to the 5-6 minute range, remain there for Q3, and drop to 3 or so minutes in the Q4.
With Butler - when she sits, first option is probably Morgan moving to the post and Boykin/Collier/Williams coming in to play the 4/3 to Stewarts 3/4 - I suspect if Butler is as good as we believe she will be more in the 20-23 minute range - with Uconn going small and adding Lou as an 3 point threat almost half the time.

 

[Bgillon]

I wonder if Boykin will be slotted in to back up Butler. Given what I have read about her USA experience last year, she seems like she could fill that role. Then slot Gabby in for Tuck since both finish nicely around the basket, Collier for Stewie, and then LouConn and Courtney battle for the 2 guard spot paired with Saniya. Thoughts?

 

[CocoHusky]

I wonder if Boykin will be slotted in to back up Butler. Given what I have read about her USA experience last year, she seems like she could fill that role. Then slot Gabby in for Tuck since both finish nicely around the basket, Collier for Stewie, and then LouConn and Courtney battle for the 2 guard spot paired with Saniya. Thoughts?

Not to revist the prior thread (about the starters) but IMO Boykin is not well equipped to backup the the 5 position and I believe Gabby's days in the post might be over.
I see Butler as 1st sub coming in for both Stewie and Tuck and I see Collier & Gabby being a sub for the 2 & 3 backing up KLS and Kia. Saniya will continue to back up MoJeff at the PG. That would leave Boykin and Courtney fighting to get minutes at (3 & 4-Boykin) & (2 & 3-Courtney). I believe enough minutes are available sans maybe 4 games and the FF this year.

 

[MilfordHusky]

I don't think we'll average over 100, but it COULD be the highest scoring team in UConn history. Why? Because we are very talented, and because the AAC conference is weak.

Why won't we average close to 100? We'll have some off-nights, and some teams will defend us well or slow the game down. But a major reason is Geno. If the score is 55-15 at the half, he won't run up the score. He will call off the fast break and will tell the team to run the half court AND work the clock for the last 10-15 minutes of the game.

 

[meyers7]

Put me down for butler averaging a lot more than 12 minutes. I don't know how Geno is going to rotate his girls, but I can't see Butler averaging less than 25 minutes a game. Already having a full season behind her, and full season of practice under Geno, gives her a leg up on the freshmen. Butler has already gone through that period of adjustment.

I'll definitely take the under on that one. What are we betting?

 

[meyers7]

Breanna Stewart - 25 minutes; 19 points
Moriah Jefferson - 26 minutes; 14 points
Morgan Tuck - 23 minutes; 14 points
Kia Nurse - 25 minutes; 12 points
Saniya Chong - 17 minutes; 7 points
Gabby Williams - 15 minutes; 10 points
Katie Lou Samuelson - 15 minutes; 8 points
Napheesa Collier - 15 minutes; 7 points
Natalie Butler - 12 minutes; 6 points
Courtney Ekmark - 12 minutes; 3 points
De'Janae Boykins - 10 minutes; 4 points
Brianna Pulido - 2 1/2 minutes; .3 points
Tierney Lawlor - 2 1/2 minutes; .5 points


totals: 200 minutes; 104.8 points... I just don't know how there is enough basketballs to go around with this team. We all know from experience that no team is going to average 100 points. But unless Geno deliberately puts the brakes on, plays the reserves a lot of minutes I just don't see how this high octane group of competitors doesn't score 100 points.

Well we know he will, so all those numbers are pretty useless.

 

[Gus Mahler]

Not to revist the prior thread (about the starters) but IMO Boykin is not well equipped to backup the the 5 position and I believe Gabby's days in the post might be over.

I agree. The only position I see Boykin getting any significant time at is the four. There are two many players ahead of her at the three. Maybe she can eventually be a generic forward, a 3-4, as you suggest.

I think it's important that she get some experience defending the four. After Butler, Stewie, and Tuck, this team doesn't have much in the way of bigs. Maybe it would be good for KLS to get some experience defending the four, as well. As you say, I don't think Geno will want GW in the post unless an emergency arises.

 

[Huskies Rule]

He is in my opinion going to want to train his new four (freshmen and Butler) during their time on the floor so while he may call off trapping defense and slow down the fast break, he will want the players to maintain focus, and play sound basketball - given the quality of the six bench scholarship players, I can't see the score being 75 at the end of the third quarter and 84 at the end of the fourth which was what happened fairly regularly last year, and in past years.

I Think that's exactly to the point. Geno has always demanded that. Though mostly with the younger, less experienced players, coach has shown absolutely no hesitation and no patience in making his dissatisfaction known by giving players a really quick hook when they: commit a dumb foul (any foul ), play lazy passive defense, take terrible shots and miss layups, and on and on. Geno's tactics apply to all his players, from Stewie and Moriah on down. The only exceptions he appears willing to make (to his credit) are with TL and BP, and only at game's end.

His players are well aware of these expectations, and since they all want maximum playing time, they learn to avoid making the same mistakes twice. Or they sit and watch from the bench. I remember many times Stewie, Moriah and Morgan were yanked from games their freshman year. They were not playing "sound UConn basketball" Geno-style. And they corrected their mistakes quickly. Coach's message was sent and received. That quick hook and bench time was an excellent motivator to kids fighting for playing time on the nation's #1 team. Though the perfection Geno demands of his players can rarely, if ever, be achieved, it does produce a TEAM that comes mighty close.

 

[Kibitzer]

Just goes to show that she's a badass.

And BTW, so is Serena Williams.

No slack for siblings of Kia or Serena. Definitely BA qualities.

 

[Bestiarius]

I don't think we'll average over 100, but it COULD be the highest scoring team in UConn history. Why? Because we are very talented, and because the AAC conference is weak.

Why won't we average close to 100? We'll have some off-nights, and some teams will defend us well or slow the game down. But a major reason is Geno. If the score is 55-15 at the half, he won't run up the score. He will call off the fast break and will tell the team to run the half court AND work the clock for the last 10-15 minutes of the game.

I think this year it will be difficult for Geno to stop UConn's scoring. The bench will be so talented that once they get into the game, they will be doing their best to crack the starting lineup. I can't see this bench using limited, valuable playing time just to pass the ball around.

The biggest obstacle to averaging 100 points will be UConn's defense. Opponents will typically be using most of their shot clock just to get off a shot. Now, if some of the bench players' defense needs work, opponents might score more than is typical and the extra possessions this creates might make 100 per game doable.

 

[UcMiami]

Another point on scoring more that has nothing to do with actually shooting the ball - this will be the tallest team in recent memory and should be a very good rebounding team as well - no Stokes, but lots of height coming off the bench plus the yoyo who is Williams.