First, I cannot disagree strongly enough with your premise that the University of Connecticut does not care about academics. Simply a rediculous statement.
Organizations can change their rules, but to using old data such that UConn's compliance with the target goals was mathematically impossible from the moment the new rules come into effect is problematic for the NCAA. The notion that UConn could form it's own organization in order to avoid the 2013 sanction is silly. They have a massive investment in athletics and the lack of phase in period makes the NCAA is the only show in town. The university could certainly file suit but having "grounds to sue" and prevailing aren't the same thing.
The University cares about academics for its real students. Not so much for it's athletes. With the exception of Bradley, all our basketball players took incredibly easy courses and we still couldn't meet the NCAA standards.
I don't think UConn will form a new organization this year to avoid the sanctions. But onc me Syracuse and Kentucky get banned too (which they will at some point) then I could definitely see us and a bunch of other schools who don't care too much about academics defecting to a new organization. The ncAA WOULD be
Left with the schools who actually treat their student athletes like regular students, including the ivy league, patriot league, service academies, and a bunch of other smaller conferences. I'm not the first one to speculate on this and there have been whole books written on the topic. This new academic policy makes it even more likely.
You don't have to convince me it was stupid to apply this policy retroactively. But we were discussing whether it was illegal and that's another issue. The NCAA is a private organization with voluntary membership (plus one competing
Organizatoon in the naia) and can apply whatever restrictions it wants, retroactively or not. That doesn't make it right, but there is no doubt in my mind it's legal.