Is next year's roster too small?

[vtcwbuff]

Something about this math doesn't add up.

Over 10 years, you have on the average 12 players on the roster. That means you have 120 "players" that can get hurt over those 10 year. And only 5 have been injuried as you said.

My guess is that there is a 4% chance of someone blowing out there knee. And even then, I'd like more years to get a more accurate look at it.

DD - I agree that a bigger sample would be a better measure, but I keep hearing that ACL injuries "are on the rise" so I'm not sure the odds are going to improve. Didn't Moore blow out a knee against UTenn and before her there was Ralph and Bird(?) between 1995 and 2001 and didn't Wolfe do it twice? I only counted her once.

The math adds up (at least almost) if you look at it from a team/season perspective instead of an individual player perspective. The team has lost a player to an ACL injury in 5 of the last 10 years. Doesn't that make the odds about even that in any given year the team might lose another?

Incidentally, the 10 year average of 12 players per year is a little misleading. The roster has averaged 10-11 players for the last 3 years and 12-13 players for the seven years between 03 and 09. Some of that is due to defections and transfers but for the first time ever I think the coaches may have missed the recruiting boat. Unless of course Auriemma has somebody hidden up his sleeve for next year.

 

[Icebear]

Yea, had a problem with her leg/knee, something. I read somewhere she has been at practice (watching) and there was a possibility she could get back this year. Geno and Co wanted her and she wanted them this year except for the injury. So I would expect her to be back next year.

Thanks, that who I thought you meant.

 

[triaddukefan]

Of course it is too small We had hoped for a class of at least 3 DD,Reimer,Harper
Who would want a roster of 9 scholarship players How many of us
were thinking to ourselfs What if someone gets hurt
prior to BB's ACL or someone transfers prior to or during next season
I am not saying who I have wondered about,but
it is living on the edge
The roster numbers for NC,ST,DUKE,TEXAS A AND M,for next season
are on the other hand crazy

A

Usually Duke has a roster of around 11-12.... so next year's class is the biggest that I can remember us having. While not concerned... I've had wondered if 15 is too many... and I still think about it at times........ but it will be a pretty balanced roster. 5 Seniors.. 2 Juniors ... 2 Sophomores and 1 Redshirt Sophomore... and 4 freshman and 1 redshirt freshman.

But given the choice between a roster of 15 and a roster of 9, I'd take my chances on 15.

 

[John Glass]

Does Geno ever recruit JUCOs ? now might be a good time to add another 2013 recruit or 2

 

[semper]

The question remains, how come that group of 4 decided to go the UNC together? So they could rule the roost? What? I'm so very curious about that situation, unprecedented in the history of the game to my knowledge. At least a couple of them should have headed for Storrs...but they didn't.

 

[triaddukefan]

The question remains, how come that group of 4 decided to go the UNC together? So they could rule the roost? What? I'm so very curious about that situation, unprecedented in the history of the game to my knowledge. At least a couple of them should have headed for Storrs...but they didn't.

Other than Deshields.... which of the others would you have liked to see UCONN snag ??

 

[John Glass]

Here is a better idea for the staff, take a grad student, or two, who has a year of immediate eligibility.

allegedly because their current school does not offer the graduate school major they want

 

[Wbbfan1]

Lindsay Allen (ND), Kianna Holland (Duke) and Lexie Brown are three guards that I would love to have seen Geno sign out of the 2013 class. Probably only Lexie Brown going to Maryland has a chance start in her freshmen year. There are other guards who are more talented that I would love to see at UConn, but most will likely immediately start at the school they signed with, so I didn't name them.

Its Ludicrous to believe that the 30 players ranked in the 20-50 range would not have considered UConn if Geno came calling even if they realized they may have to sit on the bench for a year or two. It more ludicrous to believe some of these players in this range don't have the work ethics that would enable them to survive Geno.

Geno in 2013 went after a couple of the elite players and struck out with all of them. They went after Saniya Chong late in comparison to other schools and they were able to sign her. The question is why didn't they go after more players even though they knew they would have a limited roster in 2013/2014? If I'm to believe what some of you apparently think that in 2013 Saniya Chong is the only role player that could play at UConn and/or would consider UConn. BTW I say Saniya is a role player because she is ranked 75th byHoopGurlz and 25th by Blue Star.

Sorry, I don't believe it.

wbbfan1, here is rjuconn's response to you in December when you also ranted about the small class issue in the past.

rjuconn -It's totally all right to question those one-player classes as they do seem to cause depth issues, especially when injuries or transfers strike. But it isn't easy to get the kind of player that wants to come and be a significant role player at UConn.

You're basically looking for these traits:

1. someone who is great enough to be a star player on every team they've ever played on AND good enough to play at least some minutes at UConn (that last part is more difficult than the first, because Geno has already shown he won't play kids just to give them minutes...they need to earn it). You want someone who could be a #8 or #9 player in a rotation, not a warm body. The Huskies have had bodies on the bench before (see Jacquie Fernandes) but not ones that would ever see a minute in a competitive game (no offense to Jacquie).

2. someone who is selfless enough to not demand premium minutes (how many "role" players have transferred out of Storrs recently? More than a few). It's tough to get someone who has been a star all their life to realize it isn't happening anymore...and still put forth the kind of effort day-in and day-out that Geno demands. That motivation is rare and when found, it should be celebrated. When you don't see a minute of game time sometimes, how pumped would you be to give a "game day" effort in practice the next morning?

If every role player had Kelly Faris' attitude, the Huskies would have unbelievable depth at every position. Alas, not everyone has Faris' attitude nor will they.

I will ask you again. Please name the players Geno could have/should have signed.

 

[Wbbfan1]

I would love to have Allisha Gray a North Carolina Recruit who is ranked 7th by HoopGurlz. I didn't include her in my other post because she was a package deal with Diamond.

Other than Deshields.... which of the others would you have liked to see UCONN snag ??

 

[Harry Mangurian]

Every one wants to be wait staff in the best restaurants.

You must love to recycle.

 

[Scotter]

The small roster will likely have almost no impact on the team's ability to reach its ultimate goal and win a national championship . Is 9 or 10 a little less than ideal? Yes, but it has little impact on national championship aspirations.

UConn recruited the kids they felt they recruit, and it really shouldn't be a surprise that UConn signed a 1 player class on the heels of 3 consecutive good classes, particularly the last class. There aren't many players of the caliber that would play in an important competitive game for UConn that are going to sign up to play behind that. Plus the demographics of the most recent recruiting class didn't line up very well for UConn. And UConn had some transfers that took place late in the recruiting process for the most recent class. It was a very similar situation to win Kelly Faris was the only recruit.

Unless you can name players that UConn reasonably could have successfully recruited, and would be difference makers then it is mostly a moot point. The coaching staff has been selective, but it is not like they've been refusing to turn over stones. The reality is the list of quality players that would jump at the chance to play at UConn is far smaller than most fans want to admit.

 

[Fightin Choke]

Something about this math doesn't add up.

Over 10 years, you have on the average 12 players on the roster. That means you have 120 "players" that can get hurt over those 10 year. And only 5 have been injuried as you said.

My guess is that there is a 4% chance of someone blowing out there knee. And even then, I'd like more years to get a more accurate look at it.

The math makes sense, although the numbers don't indicate a 50% chance to lose someone when you only have 9 players in the class and your typical class size is 12 women. The 4% chance you cite is 4% per person, so the chance that no one gets an ACL injury is (1-5/120)^9, where 5 is the number of ACl injuries in the last 10 years, 120 is the player-years (10 years times 12 players per class), and 9 is the number of players on next year's roster. So simplifying, 1-.042 = .958 and (.958)^9 = .68 or a 2/3 chance that no one is injured, which means there is a 1 in 3 chance that UConn will have only 8 players available next year due to an ACL injury (given the assumptions you and vtcwbuff posited).

 

[Icebear]

You must love to recycle.

;- )

 

[doggydaddy]

Lindsay Allen (ND), Kianna Holland (Duke) and Lexie Brown are three guards that I would love to have seen Geno sign out of the 2013 class. Probably only Lexie Brown going to Maryland has a chance start in her freshmen year. There are other guards who are more talented that I would love to see at UConn, but most will likely immediately start at the school they signed with, so I didn't name them.

Its Ludicrous to believe that the 30 players ranked in the 20-50 range would not have considered UConn if Geno came calling even if they realized they may have to sit on the bench for a year or two. It more ludicrous to believe some of these players in this range don't have the work ethics that would enable them to survive Geno.

Geno in 2013 went after a couple of the elite players and struck out with all of them. They went after Saniya Chong late in comparison to other schools and they were able to sign her. The question is why didn't they go after more players even though they knew they would have a limited roster in 2013/2014? If I'm to believe what some of you apparently think that in 2013 Saniya Chong is the only role player that could play at UConn and/or would consider UConn. BTW I say Saniya is a role player because she is ranked 75th byHoopGurlz and 25th by Blue Star.

Sorry, I don't believe it.

Chong is ranked 20th by ASGR. Why did you leave that out? And someone at the WCBA thought she was pretty good as she was selected to that game and more than likely will be a McD's game. I don't think you need to delittle her to make your point.

Geno recruited I believe Karlie Samuelson (77), Saniya Chong (75), Linnae Harper (5), Erica McCall (11) ,Jannah Tucker (8), Tya Reimer (4) and Diamond DeShields (3) at one time or another. That's 7 players, not a couple.

The idea that Geno has to just offer and players will committ is a little arrogant, and not something that Geno believes. He still has to work to get players, although he does have an admitted advantage being who he is and the success at UConn.

You named 3 players. Lindsay Allen (ND - 25), Kianna Holland (Duke - 32) and Lexie Brown (MD - 15). I don't understand when and how he should have recruited these players when he was actively recruiting 7 other players and what makes you think that these 3 are players Geno would have wanted and that they would have gone to UConn instead of Duke, Maryland or ND, three great basketball schools.

 

[jplotinus]

The math makes sense, although the numbers don't indicate a 50% chance to lose someone when you only have 9 players in the class and your typical class size is 12 women. The 4% chance you cite is 4% per person, so the chance that no one gets an ACL injury is (1-5/120)^9, where 5 is the number of ACl injuries in the last 10 years, 120 is the player-years (10 years times 12 players per class), and 9 is the number of players on next year's roster. So simplifying, 1-.042 = .958 and (.958)^9 = .68 or a 2/3 chance that no one is injured, which means there is a 1 in 3 chance that UConn will have only 8 players available next year due to an ACL injury (given the assumptions you and vtcwbuff posited).

Well done.

 

[doggydaddy]

The math makes sense, although the numbers don't indicate a 50% chance to lose someone when you only have 9 players in the class and your typical class size is 12 women. The 4% chance you cite is 4% per person, so the chance that no one gets an ACL injury is (1-5/120)^9, where 5 is the number of ACl injuries in the last 10 years, 120 is the player-years (10 years times 12 players per class), and 9 is the number of players on next year's roster. So simplifying, 1-.042 = .958 and (.958)^9 = .68 or a 2/3 chance that no one is injured, which means there is a 1 in 3 chance that UConn will have only 8 players available next year due to an ACL injury (given the assumptions you and vtcwbuff posited).

That is based on the number of ACL injuries at UConn. I don't think that there is a "chance" that can be calculated based on that small sample when there are 312 Div I schools to look at.

 

[MilfordHusky]

Chong is ranked 20th by ASGR. Why did you leave that out? And someone at the WCBA thought she was pretty good as she was selected to that game and more than likely will be a McD's game. I don't think you need to delittle her to make your point.

Geno recruited I believe Karlie Samuelson (77), Saniya Chong (75), Linnae Harper (5), Erica McCall (11) ,Jannah Tucker (8), Tya Reimer (4) and Diamond DeShields (3) at one time or another. That's 7 players, not a couple.

The idea that Geno has to just offer and players will committ is a little arrogant, and not something that Geno believes. He still has to work to get players, although he does have an admitted advantage being who he is and the success at UConn.

You named 3 players. Lindsay Allen (ND - 25), Kianna Holland (Duke - 32) and Lexie Brown (MD - 15). I don't understand when and how he should have recruited these players when he was actively recruiting 7 other players and what makes you think that these 3 are players Geno would have wanted and that they would have gone to UConn instead of Duke, Maryland or ND, three great basketball schools.

Those names all sound right. In addition, we were involved with Stephanie Mavunga at least some, and CD flew to Oregon to see Mercedes Russell.