I've watched Iowa state 7 times this year. They were one of the 5 teams I drafted in a season long pool so I had a special interest in them. When I saw the brackets come out on selection Sunday I thought we would beat nova and ultimately fall to Iowa State because the matchup was decidedly in their favor.
Two things significantly changed that for me along the way.
1) Niang going down is really harmful for Iowa State for all the reasons mentioned above. It doesn't leave them without options, but it makes them much more predictable which is important. It takes away a lot of their pick and pop action. It's the equivalent to us losing Deandre. I don't think Carolina was disciplined enough to capitalize on the loss or had enough time to prepare, I think we'll be ready.
2) I was really afraid of getting our bigs pulled outside by hogue (who reminds me a lot of kevin freeman) and Niang while Kane and Ejim went to work on our back court in the low post. I mentioned it about a week ago today and @
pj said
That's what zones are for
. I wasn't confident at that time we could be effective in one but our matchup zone with T-sam was very impressive against nova. I like us to use that again if we start to get abused in the paint. Iowa state can knock the three ball (less so without niang) but they also get to the rim alot. I don't recall them doing a lot of their damage in the mid range (hogue has a nice 12-15 footer) so I think one place where we have a shot to be effective is to pressure them at the 3 point line and let Amida clean up at the rim. They are an effective interior passing team though so if he's too aggressive it can hurt us.
While Kane is a great player, in pressure situations he can try to do too much (not unlike bazz). I think he tends to dominate on instinct more than IQ. Exhibit A is 3 player control fouls against Carolina. I actually like the idea of giving phil some minutes and funneling kane to him. Picking up a couple chippies on charges and getting him on the pine would be huge.
There's a reason this game is a coin flip. We're very similar teams at this point. Neither is a particularly daunting front court physically that can exploit where the other team is vulnerable. We'll need our A game. But at least now I believe our A game is good enough.