I'm not anti-analytics. I'm very pro KenPom, but in context. And Iowa State gamed them.
Iowa State losing isn't a gotcha. Iowa State being overmatched the entire game, never having the lead, never being tied, and only even having a chance because of anomalous free throw shooting I think suggests that, perhaps, they weren't really as good as people were making them out to be.
Iowa State deserved to be the #4 two seed or a high three seed. Ultimately I'm playing it up a bit with some because of UConn conspiracy nuts acting as if we had been purposefully screwed. We weren't. Metrics are great, but they aren't everything. Having four Top 10 kenpom teams in your bracket isn't some punishment when the metrics aren't perfectly aligned with actual team ability, which it wasn't for Iowa State or Auburn. The B12 was overrated because they gamed those metrics and Iowa State blew out a tired and exhausted Houston team in the title. Auburn literally beat nobody.
Illinois...yeah, they're dangerous. They're going to give us a game. That said, Iowa State is their best win, and despite the fact that they were obviously much better than Iowa State, they seemed to try to give that game away. If Iowa State was able to rebound or stopped with their gimmicky defense, they might have pulled an upset. And we would have beaten them by 20+.