Interesting Article Speculates on Several Realignment Options

[billybud]

UAB has decent football

Except it’s hard to see why the AAC would have interest in any of those programs.

The current AAC has 9 former CUSA programs...it always has been, in the past, a step up and fill in process.

Big East to ACC...CUSA to AAC....

The TV dynamics are in flux, so who knows? It probably makes sense to stay at 11 and split the money 11 ways.

 

[Nostical]

The formula is set. Win this fall, pre-announce a surprisingly attractive 2020 schedule featuring some “name” opponents—and we can turn the uncertainty about our survival on its head.
Few will ever miss those halcyon days (not) of the AAC. As for Bowl games, Benedict already told us that regular season away “games at Clemson and other A-list opponents are bowl-like opportunities for Husky fans to travel.” Bottom line, I’m all in on our Independent status. Once the football media rights sort themselves out (and they will) UConn football can not only survive but thrive. It all begins this fall. Bet the over 1.5.

 

[Adios]

UAB has decent football


The current AAC has 9 former CUSA programs...it always has been, in the past, a step up and fill in process.

Big East to ACC...CUSA to AAC....

The TV dynamics are in flux, so who knows? It probably makes sense to stay at 11 and split the money 11 ways.

The ACC has a former CUSA program!

 

[kibblesnbits]

I tend to agree that the current model isn't sustainable.

Why are Ohio State and Michigan subsidizing Rutgers? Why are Florida State and Clemson subsidizing Wake?

I think you'll eventually see a super conference of the top P5 schools that is NFL-Lite (32 teams) or the top schools break off into Independence or form a loose affiliation of regional schools (what a concept).

They are subsidizing them because they have to have someone to beat. In order to be a powerhouse program you have to win. If the top 32 teams break off and overwhelmingly play each other, 1/2 are going to be losers and others mediocre. After a few years of losing they will no longer have the feel of a powerhouse. If, for instance, Michigan can no longer count on at least 9 wins and is staring at 5-7 or 6-6 years, do they still draw 100K to the Big House? Can they still recruit fast top-rated WRs and DBs from Florida to play in cold mediocrity? People under-estimate the value also-rans give to conference powers.

 

[uconndogs]

It probably makes sense to stay at 11 and split the money 11 ways.

Exactly, because none of the current CUSA members bring value.

 

[uconnell]

They are subsidizing them because they have to have someone to beat. In order to be a powerhouse program you have to win. If the top 32 teams break off and overwhelmingly play each other, 1/2 are going to be losers and others mediocre. After a few years of losing they will no longer have the feel of a powerhouse. If, for instance, Michigan can no longer count on at least 9 wins and is staring at 5-7 or 6-6 years, do they still draw 100K to the Big House? Can they still recruit fast top-rated WRs and DBs from Florida to play in cold mediocrity? People under-estimate the value also-rans give to conference powers.

Excellent point. I never thought of it that way.

 

[billybud]

The ACC has a former CUSA program!

Yep...and several of ex Metro Conference/football independents....VT, Louisville,& FSU.... Louisville also ex Missouri Valley, CUSA, Big East.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

They are subsidizing them because they have to have someone to beat. In order to be a powerhouse program you have to win. If the top 32 teams break off and overwhelmingly play each other, 1/2 are going to be losers and others mediocre. After a few years of losing they will no longer have the feel of a powerhouse. If, for instance, Michigan can no longer count on at least 9 wins and is staring at 5-7 or 6-6 years, do they still draw 100K to the Big House? Can they still recruit fast top-rated WRs and DBs from Florida to play in cold mediocrity? People under-estimate the value also-rans give to conference powers.

Fair - I only started watching college football when UConn upgraded, so pretty much in the 12+ teams in a conference era. When the old leagues were still a thing, i.e. Big 8, Pac 8, Big 10, SWC, etc. did everyone play 7 or 8 league games?

Feel like being able to schedule 5 OOC gives you a lot of wiggle room to bring in some cupcakes.

 

[huskyrob1]

There are CUSA schools lined up to jump if there is an opening that the AAC would fill.

The AAC has a $1 billion, 12-year television deal that provides each school just under $7 million per year. C-USA's television deal collapsed a few years ago. Schools are expected to receive about $450,000 per year now, per league sources.

I haven't seen any movement by anyone to fill Uconn's spot. Aresco just can't give the impression that the conference is teetering even now. If Cincinnati were to leave and maybe one more besides, not only would the P6 moniker become a joke but basketball would also take a big hit. When that happens ESPN+ becomes ESPN-. I would say there are only 4 or 5 schools in the AAC that could survive as an independent, the cable box model is dead so streaming deals can really help independents. Also the more independents there are then more teams for Benedict to deal with.

 

[huskyrob1]

yeah i wonder what happens if the aac swaps out for cusa programs.

the aac teams arent going anywhere though. none of them can strike out alone.

I think Cincinnati, Houston, and maybe Temple or Memphis could. The rest can't. Join the NBE in basketball and other sports and go Independent in football.

 

[whaler11]

I think Cincinnati, Houston, and maybe Temple or Memphis could. The rest can't. Join the NBE in basketball and other sports and go Independent in football.

The only call the Big East would take is Cinci. Lol yeah Villanova is gonna let Temple in.

 

[GridironGR8]

The only call the Big East would take is Cinci. Lol yeah Villanova is gonna let Temple in.

The Big East won't be adding anyone else until/unless UConn moves up to a P5 conference. Eleven members is the sweet spot for the BE.

 

[huskyrob1]

The only call the Big East would take is Cinci. Lol yeah Villanova is gonna let Temple in.

Only reason I mentioned Temple is because they already are a member of the NBE in some women's sports, but you do make a good point.

 

[HuskyHawk]

They are subsidizing them because they have to have someone to beat. In order to be a powerhouse program you have to win. If the top 32 teams break off and overwhelmingly play each other, 1/2 are going to be losers and others mediocre. After a few years of losing they will no longer have the feel of a powerhouse. If, for instance, Michigan can no longer count on at least 9 wins and is staring at 5-7 or 6-6 years, do they still draw 100K to the Big House? Can they still recruit fast top-rated WRs and DBs from Florida to play in cold mediocrity? People under-estimate the value also-rans give to conference powers.

Sort of. My theory on why conferences are worth more than the sum of their parts is about mindshare. Mostly TV mindshare, but in general it drives fans and students. Rutgers brings the Big Ten brand to NY. That means that a Michigan - Wisconsin game is now more relevant to more people in NY/NJ. Maryland does the same in DC. Both markets are split, but they gain mindshare. They also recruit students more effectively in those places. More kids in DC and NJ consider going to Indiana or Purdue than otherwise would have. U Miami wanted in the Big East and later ACC for this reason, they recruit the Boston to DC corridor for students.

Look at the shifts. PAC poached Colorado. Big poached Nebraska. SEC poached Mizzou and A&M. Morons on Twitter talk about “adding value” or “bringing $x”. It’s a short sighted view. You add A&M to the SEC and it means more people in Houston choose to watch LSU play Ole Miss instead of Ok State playing TCU.

Look at our own discussion on the basketball side. People say they will be watching more Big East games now, less AAC. That’s what matters. That’s what Fox wants. They know the CT market will watch UConn wherever they are. Will we watch Cinci vs Houston or PC vs. Xavier? If you flip those eyeballs, you flip them for everything you are selling, not just the local team. That’s why conferences have grown so much from the old days.

 

[SubbaBub]

Fair - I only started watching college football when UConn upgraded, so pretty much in the 12+ teams in a conference era. When the old leagues were still a thing, i.e. Big 8, Pac 8, Big 10, SWC, etc. did everyone play 7 or 8 league games?

Feel like being able to schedule 5 OOC gives you a lot of wiggle room to bring in some cupcakes.

There were more intersectional games, teams had numerous 'rivals' even outside their conference. Trophy games meant more, bowl games meant more. Conferences were less important and championships were straight round robin affairs.

There were also a lot more independent schools.

 

[UConnNick]

UConn and BYU are the only G5 schools with a chance on real numbers. That doesn’t mean Houston won’t buy their way in. The Florida directionals and Memphis might have a shot based on recruiting territory. Still, real numbers favor only BYU and UConn. Cincy is really hurt by tOSU. They were born to be a level below major. They may be great at hiring caches but Cincy just lags in terms of market pull.

The fact is all the schools that paraded past the B12 review board were deemed unworthy of admission. Why? Not one of those schools were viewed as worthy of delivering enough value to enhance the league's overall value.

In reality, all of those schools are in a tie for going nowhere. That could change, but one or more of them would have to do something pretty spectacular on a consistent basis to change their status.

 

[UConnNick]

They are subsidizing them because they have to have someone to beat. In order to be a powerhouse program you have to win. If the top 32 teams break off and overwhelmingly play each other, 1/2 are going to be losers and others mediocre. After a few years of losing they will no longer have the feel of a powerhouse. If, for instance, Michigan can no longer count on at least 9 wins and is staring at 5-7 or 6-6 years, do they still draw 100K to the Big House? Can they still recruit fast top-rated WRs and DBs from Florida to play in cold mediocrity? People under-estimate the value also-rans give to conference powers.

If that's true the AAC football powers should be begging Aresco to keep us as a football-only member.