Interesting Article Speculates on Several Realignment Options

[Hoophound]

UConn and BYU are the only G5 schools with a chance on real numbers. That doesn’t mean Houston won’t buy their way in. The Florida directionals and Memphis might have a shot based on recruiting territory. Still, real numbers favor only BYU and UConn. Cincy is really hurt by tOSU. They were born to be a level below major. They may be great at hiring caches but Cincy just lags in terms of market pull.

 

[billybud]

UCF is a turd. Their fan base is the biggest band wagon garbage ever. I meet more people leaving UCF due to the Orlando traffic or lack of community as I meet that are going or staying. It is a POS environment.

Band wagon fans...they are pretty well spread across the football universe...I would venture to say that UCF's are no worse than a few other programs that come to my mind.

 

[Hoophound]

Band wagon fans...they are pretty well spread across the football universe...I would venture to say that UCF's are no worse than a few other programs that come to my mind.

They are worse. UCF is not a place you find many people at all that really care. Most of the students are UF and FSU fans. UCF was abysmal before this run in football. Yes, the fans jumped on board for some great teams, but there is just no depth to the fan/sports relationship. No one talks UCF football, there is no noticeable school pride. Tons of kids go there but few seem to stay. I was a defender of UCF a few years ago but since then I’ve met one person after another that is in and out of UCF. The large majority of whom are Gator or Nole fans and none of them have much to say about UCF sports. In general what you find is that most Florida residents pull for UCF or USF if they are good and get to a major bowl, but that’s only because it is different and kind of interesting. Very few really care.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Five scenarios for the future of college conference realignment

On the likelihood of changes coming to the college football neighborhood.

theathletic.com

One option that's explored is more of the schools going Independent, encouraged by new rights bidders such as Amazon and Netflix. For example, David Carter, executive director of the USC Sports Business Institute states: “What might happen is something new.” Right now you’re trying to broker entire conferences,” he said. “If you took away that business model, maybe Amazon might want to do USC and Boise State, but they say no to Colorado State. Maybe it’s, people who subscribe to Netflix are in the Southwest, so we only want USC, UCLA, San Diego State and the Arizona schools. Or they may say, we’ve had trouble penetrating the Northeast, so we just want Syracuse and UConn.”

Another issue was trying to measure the value of various G-5's as compared to some P-5's based on alumni and social media status:
View attachment 45084

I've been pushing this narrative for a while now. It's why I think independence is smart.

Not everyone remembers, but it was only the 1970's when schools sold their own rights. Conferences didn't. It was the rise of cable TV that changed that and for the first time, group rights were worth more than the sum of the individual school rights. Now, that mean some were underpaid slightly and several were overpaid. It'w why the whole realignment argument about a school being "worth" $35M is nonsense. Most of the P5 wouldn't be worth what they earn on their own.

As we see cable decline, and streaming take hold, it becomes easier to build out a private network with a partner, as BYU has. I don't think it ends conferences by any means, but I think people will reconsider the idea of shrinking them again, closer to the historical conferences we had. Meaning the ACC north could eventually be it's own league and we'd have a chance to join that.

 

[billybud]

They are worse. UCF is not a place you find many people at all that really care. Most of the students are UF and FSU fans. UCF was abysmal before this run in football. Yes, the fans jumped on board for some great teams, but there is just no depth to the fan/sports relationship. No one talks UCF football, there is no noticeable school pride. Tons of kids go there but few seem to stay. I was a defender of UCF a few years ago but since then I’ve met one person after another that is in and out of UCF. The large majority of whom are Gator or Nole fans and none of them have much to say about UCF sports. In general what you find is that most Florida residents pull for UCF or USF if they are good and get to a major bowl, but that’s only because it is different and kind of interesting. Very few really care.

I get it that you like to hate on UCF. But:

When UCF went 0-12 in 2015, they still averaged a little over 30,000 in attendance...

In 2018, while FBS attendance declined, UCF's attendance went up...

"At the beginning of the semester, UCF Athletic Director Danny White challenged UCF President Dale Whittaker to join the students at the university’s annual homecoming tradition, Spirit Splash, on Nov. 9.

“If we put 50,000 students in our student section over the first five games, will you join them in the greatest tradition in college football for our homecoming Spirit Splash?” White said in a video he posted on Twitter directed at Whittaker.

Whittaker accepted.

On Nov. 5, White tweeted the student attendance for the first five home games of the season was 55,269. Whittaker charged into the Reflecting Pond on Nov. 9 for the 23rd annual Spirit Splash. "

 

[kemba]

They are worse. UCF is not a place you find many people at all that really care. Most of the students are UF and FSU fans. UCF was abysmal before this run in football. Yes, the fans jumped on board for some great teams, but there is just no depth to the fan/sports relationship. No one talks UCF football, there is no noticeable school pride. Tons of kids go there but few seem to stay. I was a defender of UCF a few years ago but since then I’ve met one person after another that is in and out of UCF. The large majority of whom are Gator or Nole fans and none of them have much to say about UCF sports. In general what you find is that most Florida residents pull for UCF or USF if they are good and get to a major bowl, but that’s only because it is different and kind of interesting. Very few really care.

That might all be true but its still a huge school in the state of Florida and for conference realignment that's what really matters.

 

[Da_Aisijimo_Gou]

Bandwagon happens for a while, tweets happen, president wades in pond, isn’t that special Miss Kappa Kappa Gamma

 

[Exit 4]

Demographic trends favor UCF in creating a real fan base for themselves. Florida continues to grow. The next step is to see if their programs can maintain success with McKenzie at QB and Fall on the BB court.

 

[Adios]

Every major school developed bandwagon fanbases over time. Over 100 years ago, people cared for local schools and attendance was very low for most non Ivy schools. Who themselves had bandwagon fanbases that dissipated when they were no longer playing at the top level. Now, they are stuck with large, historic stadiums that are crumbling and do not get capacity crowds except The Game when played at Harvard.

 

[Hoophound]

I get it that you like to hate on UCF. But:

When UCF went 0-12 in 2015, they still averaged a little over 30,000 in attendance...

In 2018, while FBS attendance declined, UCF's attendance went up...

"At the beginning of the semester, UCF Athletic Director Danny White challenged UCF President Dale Whittaker to join the students at the university’s annual homecoming tradition, Spirit Splash, on Nov. 9.

“If we put 50,000 students in our student section over the first five games, will you join them in the greatest tradition in college football for our homecoming Spirit Splash?” White said in a video he posted on Twitter directed at Whittaker.

Whittaker accepted.

On Nov. 5, White tweeted the student attendance for the first five home games of the season was 55,269. Whittaker charged into the Reflecting Pond on Nov. 9 for the 23rd annual Spirit Splash. "

UCF did not have 30k in the stands for that. That’s just silly. Not sure how they come up with the number but the stadium was empty.

Here’s a snippet from an article from 2016:

“The stadium holds 45,301 fans. On the last home game of the season, the stadium was only three quarters full. On Nov. 12, 30,346 fans attended the home game against Cincinnati, according to attendance figures provided by the team. But video taken at the game, heading into the third quarter with the Knights up 10-3, showed most of the upper bowl, and half the stadium, empty.”

They do the tickets distributed thing. With the success they’ve had the last few years, of course they get people to watch. However, the students don’t really care and it truly is a commuter school with very little school pride.

 

[Dream Jobbed 2.0]

Memphis, UCF, USF are the 3 biggest frauds in terms of reporting attendance. Remember when we played USF in the monsoon in literally an empty stadium? I think they reported close to 50,000 fans at that game. Memphis sells tickets to the tarps that cover sections. There’s NO WAY UCF sold 30,000 seats a game in that 0-12 game. Sure our attendance stinks but at least we’re almost honest about it.

 

[Dooooooomed]

Memphis, UCF, USF are the 3 biggest frauds in terms of reporting attendance. Remember when we played USF in the monsoon in literally an empty stadium? I think they reported close to 50,000 fans at that game. Memphis sells tickets to the tarps that cover sections. There’s NO WAY UCF sold 30,000 seats a game in that 0-12 game. Sure our attendance stinks but at least we’re almost honest about it.

 

[jonsmith]

UConn and BYU are the only G5 schools with a chance on real numbers. That doesn’t mean Houston won’t buy their way in. The Florida directionals and Memphis might have a shot based on recruiting territory. Still, real numbers favor only BYU and UConn. Cincy is really hurt by tOSU. They were born to be a level below major. They may be great at hiring caches but Cincy just lags in terms of market pull.

It's a unique situation with Cincinnati. OSU has been the only major conference program in the state forever. So naturally most of the residents gravitated toward OSU. And oh by the way they've had a ton of success which helped. UC has been a strong hoops school going back 50+ years winning a couple national titles in the 60s and having 6 FF appearances. But football was always OSUs domain. UC got a big boost in FB by joining the BE. There is a ton of talent in Ohio to only have one major program. If UC got a call up to a P5 conference they would have a tremendous boost in terms of overall fan perception and support outside of primarily SW OH. It's still done very well with the hand theyve been dealt all things considered.

 

[blue93]

It's a unique situation with Cincinnati. OSU has been the only major conference program in the state forever. So naturally most of the residents gravitated toward OSU. And oh by the way they've had a ton of success which helped. UC has been a strong hoops school going back 50+ years winning a couple national titles in the 60s and having 6 FF appearances. But football was always OSUs domain. UC got a big boost in FB by joining the BE. There is a ton of talent in Ohio to only have one major program. If UC got a call up to a P5 conference they would have a tremendous boost in terms of overall fan perception and support outside of primarily SW OH. It's still done very well with the hand theyve been dealt all things considered.

If we can make the Indy football thing work, why wouldn’t Cincy do the same thing? They’re probably the only other school the NBE would be interested in adding. The new TV deal is garbage and they’d fit right into the current makeup of Big East schools.

 

[Adios]

If we can make the Indy football thing work, why wouldn’t Cincy do the same thing? They’re probably the only other school the NBE would be interested in adding. The new TV deal is garbage and they’d fit right into the current makeup of Big East schools.

Xavier would block them.

 

[huskyrob1]

If we can make the Indy football thing work, why wouldn’t Cincy do the same thing? They’re probably the only other school the NBE would be interested in adding. The new TV deal is garbage and they’d fit right into the current makeup of Big East schools.

That's exactly why I think if UCONN football as an independent is even a mild success, then the AAC rapidly disintegrates.

 

[MilliniumPrince]

With recent investments and the high level of in-state talent, why does anyone think UCF is going to suck any time soon?

 

[billybud]

That's exactly why I think if UCONN football as an independent is even a mild success, then the AAC rapidly disintegrates.

There are CUSA schools lined up to jump if there is an opening that the AAC would fill.

The AAC has a $1 billion, 12-year television deal that provides each school just under $7 million per year. C-USA's television deal collapsed a few years ago. Schools are expected to receive about $450,000 per year now, per league sources.

 

[uconndogs]

There are CUSA schools lined up to jump if there is an opening that the AAC would fill.

The AAC has a $1 billion, 12-year television deal that provides each school just under $7 million per year. C-USA's television deal collapsed a few years ago. Schools are expected to receive about $450,000 per year now, per league sources.

Except it’s hard to see why the AAC would have interest in any of those programs.

 

[whaler11]

There are CUSA schools lined up to jump if there is an opening that the AAC would fill.

The AAC has a $1 billion, 12-year television deal that provides each school just under $7 million per year. C-USA's television deal collapsed a few years ago. Schools are expected to receive about $450,000 per year now, per league sources.

yeah i wonder what happens if the aac swaps out for cusa programs.

the aac teams arent going anywhere though. none of them can strike out alone.

 

[billybud]

UAB has decent football

Except it’s hard to see why the AAC would have interest in any of those programs.

The current AAC has 9 former CUSA programs...it always has been, in the past, a step up and fill in process.

Big East to ACC...CUSA to AAC....

The TV dynamics are in flux, so who knows? It probably makes sense to stay at 11 and split the money 11 ways.

 

[Nostical]

The formula is set. Win this fall, pre-announce a surprisingly attractive 2020 schedule featuring some “name” opponents—and we can turn the uncertainty about our survival on its head.
Few will ever miss those halcyon days (not) of the AAC. As for Bowl games, Benedict already told us that regular season away “games at Clemson and other A-list opponents are bowl-like opportunities for Husky fans to travel.” Bottom line, I’m all in on our Independent status. Once the football media rights sort themselves out (and they will) UConn football can not only survive but thrive. It all begins this fall. Bet the over 1.5.

 

[Adios]

UAB has decent football


The current AAC has 9 former CUSA programs...it always has been, in the past, a step up and fill in process.

Big East to ACC...CUSA to AAC....

The TV dynamics are in flux, so who knows? It probably makes sense to stay at 11 and split the money 11 ways.

The ACC has a former CUSA program!

 

[kibblesnbits]

I tend to agree that the current model isn't sustainable.

Why are Ohio State and Michigan subsidizing Rutgers? Why are Florida State and Clemson subsidizing Wake?

I think you'll eventually see a super conference of the top P5 schools that is NFL-Lite (32 teams) or the top schools break off into Independence or form a loose affiliation of regional schools (what a concept).

They are subsidizing them because they have to have someone to beat. In order to be a powerhouse program you have to win. If the top 32 teams break off and overwhelmingly play each other, 1/2 are going to be losers and others mediocre. After a few years of losing they will no longer have the feel of a powerhouse. If, for instance, Michigan can no longer count on at least 9 wins and is staring at 5-7 or 6-6 years, do they still draw 100K to the Big House? Can they still recruit fast top-rated WRs and DBs from Florida to play in cold mediocrity? People under-estimate the value also-rans give to conference powers.

 

[uconndogs]

It probably makes sense to stay at 11 and split the money 11 ways.

Exactly, because none of the current CUSA members bring value.

 

[uconnell]

They are subsidizing them because they have to have someone to beat. In order to be a powerhouse program you have to win. If the top 32 teams break off and overwhelmingly play each other, 1/2 are going to be losers and others mediocre. After a few years of losing they will no longer have the feel of a powerhouse. If, for instance, Michigan can no longer count on at least 9 wins and is staring at 5-7 or 6-6 years, do they still draw 100K to the Big House? Can they still recruit fast top-rated WRs and DBs from Florida to play in cold mediocrity? People under-estimate the value also-rans give to conference powers.

Excellent point. I never thought of it that way.

 

[billybud]

The ACC has a former CUSA program!

Yep...and several of ex Metro Conference/football independents....VT, Louisville,& FSU.... Louisville also ex Missouri Valley, CUSA, Big East.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

They are subsidizing them because they have to have someone to beat. In order to be a powerhouse program you have to win. If the top 32 teams break off and overwhelmingly play each other, 1/2 are going to be losers and others mediocre. After a few years of losing they will no longer have the feel of a powerhouse. If, for instance, Michigan can no longer count on at least 9 wins and is staring at 5-7 or 6-6 years, do they still draw 100K to the Big House? Can they still recruit fast top-rated WRs and DBs from Florida to play in cold mediocrity? People under-estimate the value also-rans give to conference powers.

Fair - I only started watching college football when UConn upgraded, so pretty much in the 12+ teams in a conference era. When the old leagues were still a thing, i.e. Big 8, Pac 8, Big 10, SWC, etc. did everyone play 7 or 8 league games?

Feel like being able to schedule 5 OOC gives you a lot of wiggle room to bring in some cupcakes.

 

[huskyrob1]

There are CUSA schools lined up to jump if there is an opening that the AAC would fill.

The AAC has a $1 billion, 12-year television deal that provides each school just under $7 million per year. C-USA's television deal collapsed a few years ago. Schools are expected to receive about $450,000 per year now, per league sources.

I haven't seen any movement by anyone to fill Uconn's spot. Aresco just can't give the impression that the conference is teetering even now. If Cincinnati were to leave and maybe one more besides, not only would the P6 moniker become a joke but basketball would also take a big hit. When that happens ESPN+ becomes ESPN-. I would say there are only 4 or 5 schools in the AAC that could survive as an independent, the cable box model is dead so streaming deals can really help independents. Also the more independents there are then more teams for Benedict to deal with.

 

[huskyrob1]

yeah i wonder what happens if the aac swaps out for cusa programs.

the aac teams arent going anywhere though. none of them can strike out alone.

I think Cincinnati, Houston, and maybe Temple or Memphis could. The rest can't. Join the NBE in basketball and other sports and go Independent in football.