Individual minutes and points this season

[winlots]

With no great sense of confidence in the accuracy of these wild guesses, but just for the fun of discussion and comparing notes, will list figures for average minutes per game and best guess of average points per game based on those minutes, for every player. In addition, will give a most likely range of lower and upper limit of average points per game (as differentiated from the single figure "best guess").

DOLSON: 22 minutes per game; 11 points (range of 11-15
HARTLEY: 22 min; 9 points (range 9-13)
LEWIS: 25 min; 15 points (range of 14-19)
STOKES: 17 min; 5 points (range of 4-9)
BANKS: 20 mn; 7 points (range 6-11)
JEFFERSON: 21 mn; 5 points (range 5-11)
STEWART: 25 mn; 15 points (range 14-20)
TUCK: 25 mn; 12 points (range 8 - 14)
CHONG: 15 mn; 6 points (range 5-13)
LAWLOR/PULIDO 8 mn; 3 points (range 2-7)

The "best guess" points generates a team total of 88 per game. When I look at the figures for the various individuals, they seem VERY conservative, perhaps in part as a function of the allotment of minutes. That allotment was difficult! And I wonder if it will be difficult for the coaches as well this year?
The lower end of the range for each player generates a team low average of 78. It provides only three players averaging double figures; that looks like too few?
The upper end of the range for each player generates a whopping 132 point team total! Gives 8 players double figure averages, and that might be too many?

 

[Tonyc]

This is a very important season for UConns development for next season. Most games will be over before they begin so with that said everybody other then the seniors need a lot of playtime and need to build their chemistry for next season. UConn is in great position to do that this season. The stars next season Stewart KML and Tuck. Mojeff will need to develop her outside shot. BB must stay healthy and continue to improve. She will be weak and a little out of shape as the season goes on which is common when sitting out as long as she did last season. Chong will need to overcome the learning curve that all freshman go through. Stokes needs playtime and needs to step up this season for next season as she will be counted on for 10th NC and back to back undefeated seasons. Perhaps the best thing that happened last season was Breannas slump. She went through it and got over it and now she knows how to do that. The only things that can hurt UConn this season are foul trouble and injuries.

Stef and Bria will lead UConn this season. They are the two that will create the chemistry. We will miss their leadership next season and Stefs terrific passing. Still the combo of Breanna and KML will unmatched for the next 2 seasons and our defense especially at the guard positions will reak havoc for opposing ball handlers. We are just silly quick at the guard spots and to tall underneath for most opponets. Discipline poise and confidence is very strong with this team for any opponent to overcome.

 

[RockyMTblue2]

Dolson, Hartley, Stewart minutes and scoring avgs too low; Tuck, Chong and Banks too high.

 

[HGN]

The estimates looked about what I would have guessed at the beginning of the season...it's anybody's guess as to whether Geno will keep in starters long after the game is decided in blowouts. I don't think he will with such a long season ahead , only 9 scholarship players, and potential health and injury concerns of key players. And with only 9 scholarship players everyone of them are key.

I think Geno is going to coach this season with an eye on resting his top players as much as possible. Playing them enough to keep them sharp and in good condition and pointing to a March run at the NC. And I think he has a great chance of doing it.

 

[winlots]

HGN: one question for you, it sounds to me like you are generally agreeing with the minutes and the "best guess" on the points? But I'd like to be sure, with regard to the points, that you are thinking about the "best guess" as contrasted with those high and low range numbers.....if you see this.

Getting back to the minutes for a sec. The reason I had minutes on the light side for some of our super stars is the same reason you mention; think the staff will probably have an eye on the long season, prevention of injury, etc. The other side of the coin, though, could be conditioning the superstars for long minutes in the playoffs; will they want them to be rested or to be routinely playing big minutes? (Seemingly, a lot of conditioning gets done on a daily basis at the famous UCONN practices.)

 

[doggydaddy]

Geno will play the starters the same minutes he usually does. 23-28. 30+ in competitive games.

My guess, just for fun, is:

Jefferson - 24
Hartley - 25
KML - 26
Stewart - 26
Dolson - 24
Tuck - 21
Stokes - 17
Banks - 17
Chong - 15

That leaves 5 minutes for the two walk-ons, no insult intended.

 

[winlots]

DD - so far, biggest disagreement re mins seems to involve Tuck. So you have any recent thoughts on exact points per player or likely ranges?

 

[doggydaddy]

DD - so far, biggest disagreement re mins seems to involve Tuck. So you have any recent thoughts on exact points per player or likely ranges?

Minutes are easy. Tuck very well could get more, but we talking about a difference of a couple of minutes.

Points? I have no idea. Every time I put down the individual points, it adds up to over 100...lol.

 

[Icebear]

The problem with most attempts at points is that it fails to account reasonably in any manner for the number of possessions and total points generated based on reasonable shooting percentages. Consider those two things and then attempt to distribute points based on that total.