Idle question: what counts as "contending" for a NC?

[alexrgct]

Today, I was thinking about a lot of things. One thing was, "Hey, UConn has a game tonight- that's awesome!". Another had to do with the allure of playing ball for Geno, and specifically, it had to do with how consistently UConn contends for national championships.

But then came another thought: what does it mean to contend for a natty?

Surely, UConn has contended the past seven seasons. I mean, a #1 seed in the tourney and at least a trip to the national semifinals- that must count as contention. But what about a year like 1991 where UConn's appearance in the Final Four was something of a surprise? C'mon- the Huskies only lost by six to a team that only lost the NC game in OT. But does how the team fares when they get to the F4 drive whether that team contended?

Along those lines, what if you lost decisively when you were eliminated from the tourney? Louisville 2009 and 2013, ND in 2014, and (ugh), UConn in 2007, all had their butts handed to them in the round in which they lost. Is making a certain stage of the tourney good enough?

Conversely, what about Baylor in 2013? They were the #1 seed- the #1 overall seed even. But they lost in the regional semis, so does that count as contending? Meanwhile, what about UConn and Tennessee in 1999? Both were #1 seeds, but UConn wasn't the #1 overall seed and also lost in the regional semis. Tennessee probably was #1 overall but lost in the regional finals. Did the LVs contend?

You can probably gather the question I have on which I'd like feedback: what's necessary and what's sufficient to have contended for an NC? From there, we can probably gather in what seasons UConn did and failed to contend from 1991 on.

Thanks for your input!

 

[rocky rococo]

I would say a major factor is where a team stands in the season/tournament. It's largely a matter of perspective among supporters. For instance, Baylor before it ran into Louisville was most certainly contending, but that's where and when its contention ended. Now, UConn is currently very much contending for this year's championship, but likewise so are South Carolina, Texas, I would include Notre Dame. Dark horses also have to be included, so long as supporters can make reasonable arguments for them.

 

[amory]

In the men's game, I'd say any team that has a realistic chance of a single digit seed in the tournament can be said to be contenders.

In the women's game, where there is much less parity, I'd say you have to be at least a top 5 seed to realistically call yourself a contender.

 

[UcMiami]

When I think of 'contending' it is the group of teams that are expected to at least get to the regional final by end of conference tournaments - if things break right they will get to the FF. Not sure who realistically had a chance against 40-0 Baylor or 40-0 Uconn or 39-0 Uconn, but strange things do happen and any team good enough to be expected to make a regional is good enough to get some breaks.

 

[Wally East]

I would say, based on nothing, getting a #1 or #2 seed means you are a contender, regardless of how far you go. Upsets happen and the winners will have knocked out a championship contender.

Similarly, if a team reaches the Elite Eight, I would legitimately call them a contender, as well.

 

[Oldbones]

A contender is anyone a pundit, poobah, soothsayer or (most importantly) a boneyarder feels has a shot at the title.

 

[DobbsRover2]

Hindsight often merges into inevitability, and we might think that just because Louisville got crushed in their two appearances that they weren't serious NC contenders. But then we remember that they knocked off one the most prohibitive pre-Tournament favorites ever in 2013, and we can recognize that the question of "being in contention" does not revolve around the outcome of one game.

Sometimes it seems that a team has to be in the top 5 entering the Tournament to be a contender, but in both 2005 and 2011 the champs were outsiders, though Baylor at #6 in 2005 just missed, and even Texas A&M in 2011 at #8 was within the top 10.

But there have also been teams getting to the FF who were outside of the top 10. Oklahoma in 2010 was at #11 and lost in the semifinals. Louisville at #16 in 2013 did pull off the historic upset and got to the NC game with the lowest placing (a 5 seed) in the last 10 years. But the team with the lowest ranking to make it to an NC game in the last 10 years was Rutgers in 2007 with a #19 ranking, and they lost by 13.

So although it's mainly the top 5 that are serious contenders, under special conditions perhaps any of the top 20 teams could make a run, especially in years when there is no undefeated team sitting up top as the tournament starts

 

[KnightBridgeAZ]

When I think of 'contending' it is the group of teams that are expected to at least get to the regional final by end of conference tournaments - if things break right they will get to the FF. Not sure who realistically had a chance against 40-0 Baylor or 40-0 Uconn or 39-0 Uconn, but strange things do happen and any team good enough to be expected to make a regional is good enough to get some breaks.

My wife expands the "break right" really to the Sweet 16 round, but absolutely to the Elite 8. Once you get to the Sweet 16, most teams, even serious contenders, are vulnerable to an upset if their star has a bad day, the ref's are especially bad, someone (unfortunately) gets even a minor injury during the game and disrupts the flow, etc. Because really, with a few exceptions, most teams in the Sweet 16 round and certainly the elite 8 are both playing well at that point and on about the same competitive level as their opponent.

How this advances the OP's point, I'm not sure, but thought I would support your comment.

 

[alexrgct]

OK, there's some consensus here, so I'll list all seasons since 1991 and put in bold seasons where I believe UConn definitely contended. The grayest areas, then would be 1998 and 2006...and that's really it.

I like Rocky Roccoco's notion that if the perception is that a team is a real threat to win it in a given moment in time, that team is contending. That's really where 1998 and 2006 are hazy to me. Had Nykesha been healthy, 1998 would've been a different story. And had UConn escaped Duke rather than being edged, 2006 would also be.

Year- seeding, result:

1991- #3, National semis
1992- #6, second round
1993- #6, first round
1994- #1, regional finals
1995- #1, National championship
1996- #1, National semis
1997- #1 Regional finals
1998- #2, regional finals
1999- #1, regional semis
2000- #1, National championship
2001- #1, National semis
2002- #1, National championship
2003- #1, National championship
2004- #2, National championship
2005- #3, Regional semis
2006- #2, Regional Finals
2007- #1, Regional Finals
2008- #1, National semis
2009- #1, National championship
2010- #1, National championship
2011- #1, National semis
2012- #1, Mational semis
2013- #1, National championship
2014- #1, National championship

 

[EricLA]

IMHO getting a 1 or 2 seed means just that - you had a terrific season and are rewarded with a very good seed in the NCAA's.

Any team who "contends" for a NC is one that has a realistic shot at winning it. At the start of the season, I would have said there is 1 team. UCONN. Everyone else is playing for 2nd place.

Then we inexplicably lost to Stanford. I believe that was an outlier.

We know ND barely came within 20 points of UCONN but they were without Turner. Then again, UCONN went 6 deep with Chong getting 9 minutes and Williams getting 5. Stokes got 21 minutes... Point being, at this point, I think UCONN can go a legit 7 deep, and 9 if you count Chong and Ekmark. Does ND get any closer, even with Turner? Maybe. But Williams has improved in leaps and bounds, Chong has regressed, and Ekmark is at least back.

But to be magnanimous, I'd say UCONN, SC and ND are the "contenders" at this point. If UCONN stomps SC by more than 18 or so, I'd say take them off the table for being a contender. Honestly, I think no one else has a prayer. And you need at least a snowball's chance in hell of winning the NC in order to be called a "contender"... Just my $.02...

 

[Vowelguy]

Wow. 20 of the last 21 years as a 1 or 2 seed

 

[meyers7]

Wow eight years in a row as a #1 seed. In that same time period

Tenn - 5
Stanford - 4
ND - 3
Baylor - 3
Maryland - 2
Duke - 2
UNC - 2
S. Carolina, Nebraska, Oklahoma - 1 each.

 

[DobbsRover2]

Wow eight years in a row as a #1 seed. In that same time period

Tenn - 5
Stanford - 4
ND - 3
Baylor - 3
Maryland - 2
Duke - 2
UNC - 2
S. Carolina, Nebraska, Oklahoma - 1 each.

Now of course a lot of Husky fans are going to say, "What, 8 straight #1 seeds. Why doesn't UConn have more titles?" And yeah, there were at least a few that just got away. But on the average 8 #1 seeds would amount to 2 titles if a #1 seed should win 1 out of every 4, so UConn has doubled expectations by winning 4 titles in the last 8 years.

But it's hard not brood about the ones that got away.

 

[DobbsRover2]

Wow eight years in a row as a #1 seed. In that same time period

Tenn - 5
Stanford - 4
ND - 3
Baylor - 3
Maryland - 2
Duke - 2
UNC - 2
S. Carolina, Nebraska, Oklahoma - 1 each.

Now of course a lot of Husky fans are going to say, "What, 8 straight #1 seeds. Why doesn't UConn have more titles?" And yeah, there were at least a few that just got away. But on the average 8 #1 seeds would amount to 2 titles if a #1 seed should win 1 out of every 4, so UConn has doubled expectations by winning 4 titles in the last 8 years.

But it's hard not brood about the ones that got away.