I Keep Thinking about Texas

[pj]

I still believe that Texas' grand scheme has the LHN developing to the point where they can join the ACC in a deal similar to what ND has (I also believe the ACC has this as a preferred scenario).

I agree, but I think this is ESPN's plan, not the ACC's or Texas's first choice. The ACC and Texas will like it because it brings in more money than any alternatives.

If it does play out that way, that leaves the B1G with Kansas, Oklahoma, and UConn, looking for a #18 or #17 is left in the cold.

 

[DarthGrumpy]

I agree, but I think this is ESPN's plan, not the ACC's or Texas's first choice. The ACC and Texas will like it because it brings in more money than any alternatives.

If it does play out that way, that leaves the B1G with Kansas, Oklahoma, and UConn, looking for a #18 or #17 is left in the cold.

Would the ACC and/or PAC be able to offer more money, even a 'special' deal just for Texas, than a deal with the B1G that would potentially include Penn St, Ohio St, Michigan, Michigan St, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas? I doubt it.

One wild card is if the B1G can land Texas, would a conference that mixes local historical rivals with a footprint in both Texas and the Northeast, be enough of a lure for ND to suck it up and change directions (putting aside their ACC legal obligations for a moment). A conference with the fore mentioned programs and ND would garner a massive TV (or other content distribution) contract.

 

[pj]

With ESPN keeping the LHN network, getting a ND type deal with 5 ACC/ND games a year, then scheduling Oklahoma and Texas schools for the rest, they could match the B1G's $45 mn/year easily. Currently they get $23 mn from B12 and $15 mn from LHN, their Tier 1/2 rights would only be more valuable with no sharing with the rest of the B12 and playing FSU/ND/Clemson/UNC/UVa + Oklahoma + TCU/Baylor/Oklahoma State/TT + 2 at large games vs SEC/B1G/Pac. You'd think a Texas-only Tier 1/2 deal would double up the B12 deal, so $46 mn/yr + $15 mn LHN = more than B1G and comparable to B1G+LHN.

If Texas values its independence and its ESPN relationship, it might go with the ACC even if the B1G lets them keep the LHN. The B1G too might pass on having a prima dona, fearing it would open a can of worms.

 

[DarthGrumpy]

I think if the Big Ten somehow gets those four you mentioned then I don't see the SEC being satisfied with "sloppy seconds" but stay at 14. However, the Pac 12 might look into adding a T.C.U., Texas Tech and maybe a Houston or Rice with Kansas State to round it off, since they can't afford to be picky like the Big Ten. The ACC would just take in West Virginia and probably Cincinnati or Iowa State, unless ND does the unthinkable.

ISU, WVU, Louisville, Pitt
BC, Cuse, UVA, VT
UNC, NC State, Wake, Duke
GT, Clemson, Miami, Florida State

T.C.U., TT, Rice/Houston, KSU
Colo, Utah, ASU, Zona
SC, UCLA, Cal, Stanford
Wazzu, Ducks, Ore State, UDub

If the XII fell apart and the B1G was successful in landing Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas, would the SEC be interested in Oklahoma St and/or Kansas St? The PAC would be as they have few choices. I believe that the PAC would be the only conference with an interest in Texas Tech. Baylor, as it is bigger than TCU could also be of interest. TCU I feel would be screwed along with Iowa St as the B1G has no interest in a second team in Iowa and they are unattractive for the SEC. Moving to a P4 structure I also believe would push BYU to a conference, just as it would push ND. BYU would likely go PAC, too. Colorado St and UNLV, and San Diego St. would also be considered.

 

[DarthGrumpy]

With ESPN keeping the LHN network, getting a ND type deal with 5 ACC/ND games a year, then scheduling Oklahoma and Texas schools for the rest, they could match the B1G's $45 mn/year easily. Currently they get $23 mn from B12 and $15 mn from LHN, their Tier 1/2 rights would only be more valuable with no sharing with the rest of the B12 and playing FSU/ND/Clemson/UNC/UVa + Oklahoma + TCU/Baylor/Oklahoma State/TT + 2 at large games vs SEC/B1G/Pac. You'd think a Texas-only Tier 1/2 deal would double up the B12 deal, so $46 mn/yr + $15 mn LHN = more than B1G and comparable to B1G+LHN.

If Texas values its independence and its ESPN relationship, it might go with the ACC even if the B1G lets them keep the LHN. The B1G too might pass on having a prima dona, fearing it would open a can of worms.

Interesting. Though, can the ACC survive with a pair of prima donas in the fold each with it's own agreements from a financial/scheduling/political viewpoint? If ND and Texas both have 'special' arrangements, what would keep Florida St for asking for one in football, Duke in Basketball, etc?

 

[Kolumbo]

Interesting. Though, can the ACC survive with a pair of prima donas in the fold each with it's own agreements from a financial/scheduling/political viewpoint? If ND and Texas both have 'special' arrangements, what would keep Florida St for asking for one in football, Duke in Basketball, etc?

It would survive no matter how much of a cluster-F headache it would be. At that point you have the P4 with nowhere else to go and the whole GOR issue.

 

[bobbyinaz]

If the XII fell apart and the B1G was successful in landing Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas, would the SEC be interested in Oklahoma St and/or Kansas St? The PAC would be as they have few choices. I believe that the PAC would be the only conference with an interest in Texas Tech. Baylor, as it is bigger than TCU could also be of interest. TCU I feel would be screwed along with Iowa St as the B1G has no interest in a second team in Iowa and they are unattractive for the SEC. Moving to a P4 structure I also believe would push BYU to a conference, just as it would push ND. BYU would likely go PAC, too. Colorado St and UNLV, and San Diego St. would also be considered.

I don't see any chance that schools like Cal & Stanford would let a religious school like BYU in. BYU is begging to get into the B12 now. They can't get into a P5 conference with the current structure, it's unlikely they can get into a P4 conference. Notre Dame will always have a choice, BYU won't

The PAC understands that unless some combination of schools that includes Texas & Oklahoma wants to join from the B12 they are basically locked in at 12 schools. They are not taking OK St or Texas Tech or anybody else from the B12 unless Texas & Oklahoma are coming with them. There are no schools that are within reasonable distance geographically that would bring any value to the conference. They still can't get their conference network on DirecTV because 3/4 of the country has no interest in paying to see more of their games than they can see now. Additional game inventory brings little value to their network unless it includes Texas & Oklahoma

They have a 12 team conference, a conference network that makes them good, not great, money and they are fine with that. The advantage they have is that even if CR breaks out again they are unlikely to be at risk to lose anyone primarily because of geography. They will never compete with the SEC or B1G for revenues but it is very doubtful that a school like USC or UCLA would ever think of making a move for more dollars because they are not going to be sending their teams across the country to play conference games

 

[CoastAtlantic]

The ideal move for the PAC from my standpoint would be: Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and a 4th school (either Iowa State, Texas Tech or Oklahoma State). The 4th school would come down to between Texas Tech and Iowa State because I don't see the Pac-12 doubling up in small states. Could they go past 16 and get Texas Tech, Iowa State and Oklahoma State? I tend to doubt it. Iowa State might be of some value to the ACC if ND remains independent and they need to get a full #16 member. Or they could go into Texas and take TCU and Baylor

If the B1G can't get OU or UT they might have to settle for Kansas and try to get one more in the East.

 

[chitown76]

From what I know and you know the b1g wants more east coast teams and markets. The b1g would love Virginia and North Carolina but that's not going to happen. Look east with UConn to finish up the upper east coast and then look at Kansas as the 16th team. The big 12 will collapse no way you can have a conference with Texas and a bunch of less populated states. The basketball would be brutal but awesome. Academics is where the money is at not athletics and UConn is building up there resume so when Delany goes before the b1g presidents he will have no problem selling UConn to the b1g. I wish the b1g wasn't so snobbish when it comes to schools. I HATE EXPANSION THE BIG EAST THE BIG 12 GONE IT ABSOLUTELY SUCKS THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH ROOM AND MONEY AT THE TABLE FOR EVERYONE TO HAVE A PIECE BUT WHEN GREED IS INVOLVED THIS IS WHAT HAPPENS PEOPLE GET LEFT OUT.

 

[CoastAtlantic]

Here's what I worked out:

UT, TT, OU, KSU -> PAC
OK State, WVU -> SEC
TCU, Baylor -> ACC
KU, UCONN -> Big Ten

The list can change, of course. I don't think there will any doubling up in states except in Texas. Kansas State and Oklahoma State need to find homes to appease the state legislatures. Therefore, Kansas splits from UT and OU to go to the B1G. Kansas State gives the PAC an actual competent football program in that state. I am coming around to accepting that the Big Ten is the most likely destination if Connecticut can escape from the AAC. Too much bad blood between WV and the ACC to overcome. So they go to the SEC. Since ND isn't joining in full, the next best thing is getting into the Texas market and get two good football programs in a much fertile state. Football is the main issue to be addressed now in the ACC (although my preference is to be the best all-sports conference possible, not so focused on one/two sport(s)).

 

[pj]

Here's what I worked out:

UT, TT, OU, KSU -> PAC
OK State, WVU -> SEC
TCU, Baylor -> ACC
KU, UCONN -> Big Ten

The list can change, of course. I don't think there will any doubling up in states except in Texas. Kansas State and Oklahoma State need to find homes to appease the state legislatures. Therefore, Kansas splits from UT and OU to go to the B1G. Kansas State gives the PAC an actual competent football program in that state. I am coming around to accepting that the Big Ten is the most likely destination if Connecticut can escape from the AAC. Too much bad blood between WV and the ACC to overcome. So they go to the SEC. Since ND isn't joining in full, the next best thing is getting into the Texas market and get two good football programs in a much fertile state. Football is the main issue to be addressed now in the ACC (although my preference is to be the best all-sports conference possible, not so focused on one/two sport(s)).

If there's too much bad blood for the ACC to recruit its best fits, UConn and WVU, that they have to go to Texas for a sprawling conference that reaches on its western edge from Waco to Kentucky to metro Chicago, then the ACC has really screwed up realignment.

Of course UConn will take the B1G if it can. Hopefully the B1G will find its way to an offer.

 

[geordi]

Texas is absolutely NOT going west. It's a logistical thing. If one of their teams is playing USC, or Stanford, or Oregon, the game is over at maybe 11 pm (PST). Figure 3 hours to shower, pack, and get to an airport - that's conservative. Another three hour flight, then an hour home. They get in at 6am (PST). That's 8 am Central time. Then put in some jet lag going east. None of their athletes would ever show up for any classes. They may move, but they are not going west.

 

[DarthGrumpy]

Texas is absolutely NOT going west. It's a logistical thing. If one of their teams is playing USC, or Stanford, or Oregon, the game is over at maybe 11 pm (PST). Figure 3 hours to shower, pack, and get to an airport - that's conservative. Another three hour flight, then an hour home. They get in at 6am (PST). That's 8 am Central time. Then put in some jet lag going east. None of their athletes would ever show up for any classes. They may move, but they are not going west.

So are you saying that UNC should join the PAC as going to class is less of an issue?

 

[geordi]

So are you saying that UNC should join the PAC as going to class is less of an issue?

Of course! It's part of the master plan. That opens a space for us in the All Cash Conference.

 

[Gurleyman]

Texas is absolutely NOT going west. It's a logistical thing. If one of their teams is playing USC, or Stanford, or Oregon, the game is over at maybe 11 pm (PST). Figure 3 hours to shower, pack, and get to an airport - that's conservative. Another three hour flight, then an hour home. They get in at 6am (PST). That's 8 am Central time. Then put in some jet lag going east. None of their athletes would ever show up for any classes. They may move, but they are not going west.

While the time difference is an issue (including late starts for local fans), you are overselling it.

Nothing ends at 11 local time, except a football game that starts at 8 (or one with multiple OTs). Most sporting events will end around 9 if there's a 7 pm start.

The PAC has a travel partner system for most sports. Friday night/Sunday afternoon. Or Thursday night/Saturday night for hoops. Allows for ample return time.

Big time schools with any sort of travel issues will charter. You go right from the gym to a plane waiting for you, skip the airport, and land right in Austin. Still means you get home at 3 am, but it isn't the ordeal you are making it out to be.

 

[jdb50]

So if we repave the runway at the Rent we move up to the front of the line for Conf. Realignment? Wow talk about luck. Why were we all so worried?

 

[pj]

Isn't there room to expand Windham Airport into Mansfield Center?

 

[jdb50]

I thought there was a plan to expand Windham Airports runway. Still too small for charter flights though.

 

[CoastAtlantic]

Texas is absolutely NOT going west. It's a logistical thing. If one of their teams is playing USC, or Stanford, or Oregon, the game is over at maybe 11 pm (PST). Figure 3 hours to shower, pack, and get to an airport - that's conservative. Another three hour flight, then an hour home. They get in at 6am (PST). That's 8 am Central time. Then put in some jet lag going east. None of their athletes would ever show up for any classes. They may move, but they are not going west.

It would depend on what the next offer the PAC would make, when they get their next chance. The first offer, IIRC, was Colorado, Texas, Texas Tech, Texas A&M, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. Texas A&M obviously balked, instead choosing the SEC. That tells me that Texas' preference would be at least three Texas schools in whatever new division they might end up being. A&M balking helped to squash that offer. The rest is history.

Also remember that the PAC whiffed on Colorado back in the 1990s. So they have a history of being persistent.

I think for the PAC to win over Texas they would need two things:

1) Convince Oklahoma to drop Oklahoma State. Oklahoma State might still end up in the SEC, since the SECN gets credit for going into new states regardless of the school.

2) Offer TCU as part of the 4-school package. TCU is more secular than Baylor, let alone BYU. More important, they are right smack in DFW, with better academics than Okie State, and a billion-dollar endowment. They have already won a Rose Bowl in recent memory and has turned around their football program in the Big 12. It's a small school, yes, but it gives Texas an automatic third Texas game (including the RRR) out of nine. Texas could schedule additional home games OOC. A hypothetical PAC Texas schedule would look like this:

TT, ASU, Utah, TCU, OU, Cal, UCLA, Ore St, Washington

They would only have to leave the state about three times, if my calculation's right. Meanwhile, playing the likes of ASU, UCLA and Washington would be nice trips for them.

The LHN is certainly a new complication but that could be solved if ESPN buys into a % of the PAC12 Network. If Stanford and USC can be convinced to ease up a little, that PAC offer would trump anything the Big Ten or SEC could offer.

 

[don356]

Texas has been a mediocre fball team in recent years, so much as to get rid of their coach. They would fit well in the b10 with a lot of other mediocre fball teams. Charlie Strong needs to show improvement next year in his second year, or they will turn on him quickly as well.