Hurley Presser

[LBird33]

I also see missed opportunities to pass inside off a give and go. Not sure why but the players receiving the ball on the outside miss opportunities to pass back inside and instead rotate the ball around for a three point opportunity

 

[LBird33]

Karaban for example passed the ball high a few times and broke for the basket with his defender behind him only to be waving for the ball instead the ball went around the perimeter.

 

[JohnFSilver]

Liam is better than Knueppel, so is AK. I don't care about mock drafts but this is the first one that pops up when I googled it.

NBA Mock Draft - NBADraft.net

Specializing in drafts with top players on the NBA horizon, player profiles, scouting reports, rankings and prospective international recruits.

www.nbadraft.net

Mock drafts are based off of recruiting rankings a year prior. Way too early on anyone else but flagged and the Rutgers guys. Lol

 

[controlfade]

 

[Hunt for 7]

He needs to change something with the defense. But I understand the dilemma. We are not good at defending the three and we certainly cannot stop dribble penetration.

So for me a zone is just to keep the team guessing. We can’t give up layups or free throws on penetration and then not guard the three point line well. At least a zone might limit the layups but then you have open shooters and it is much more difficult to defensive rebound from a zone that man to man.

There are no real answers that I can see. Might as well try gimmicks at this point.

 

[AntG168]

He needs to change something with the defense. But I understand the dilemma. We are not good at defending the three and we certainly cannot stop dribble penetration.

So for me a zone is just to keep the team guessing. We can’t give up layups or free throws on penetration and then not guard the three point line well. At least a zone might limit the layups but then you have open shooters and it is much more difficult to defensive rebound from a zone that man to man.

There are no real answers that I can see. Might as well try gimmicks at this point.

I agree. But it truly think the fix with this team is leaning all the way into our strength. The offensive side of the ball. Play adequate defense and score 75+ every night. I know this is simplifying the conversation tremendously. But I dont think this team is improving that much more on defense. Allowing about 68 ppg is the ceiling with this group. And with Liam I think that's good enough. Come tournament time we just can't afford to go cold from 3 like we were able to last season. We HAVE to score the ball and eliminate those 4+ minute stretches of scoreless basketball.

The recipe for success is limit possessions by slowing the game down(we already do this), be incredibly efficient, and don't turn the ball over. Most teams won't be able to match our efficiency if we can just offer adequate resistance.

 

[HCCForever]

Dan received media attention for his exchange with the ref during the Butler game.

Both Dan Patrick and PTI mentioned Hurley on Wednesday the 21st. Neither show thought it was 100% negative. DP mentioned that Hurley hasn't changed much from his Wagner days but the spotlight is now on him at UConn.

On PTI, Tony thought that Dan shouldn't have said what he said but Dan was probably correct that he is the best coach in college basketball at the moment.

 

[husky429]

I agree. But it truly think the fix with this team is leaning all the way into our strength. The offensive side of the ball. Play adequate defense and score 75+ every night. I know this is simplifying the conversation tremendously. But I dont think this team is improving that much more on defense. Allowing about 68 ppg is the ceiling with this group. And with Liam I think that's good enough. Come tournament time we just can't afford to go cold from 3 like we were able to last season. We HAVE to score the ball and eliminate those 4+ minute stretches of scoreless basketball.

The recipe for success is limit possessions by slowing the game down(we already do this), be incredibly efficient, and don't turn the ball over. Most teams won't be able to match our efficiency if we can just offer adequate resistance.

Agreed. You aren't turning Solo and Jaylin into Castle, you just aren't. Make them as close to adequate as we can get them, and then get that offense back to top-5 with Liam.

 

[Hunt for 7]

I agree. But it truly think the fix with this team is leaning all the way into our strength. The offensive side of the ball. Play adequate defense and score 75+ every night. I know this is simplifying the conversation tremendously. But I dont think this team is improving that much more on defense. Allowing about 68 ppg is the ceiling with this group. And with Liam I think that's good enough. Come tournament time we just can't afford to go cold from 3 like we were able to last season. We HAVE to score the ball and eliminate those 4+ minute stretches of scoreless basketball.

The recipe for success is limit possessions by slowing the game down(we already do this), be incredibly efficient, and don't turn the ball over. Most teams won't be able to match our efficiency if we can just offer adequate resistance.

I am ok with that strategy. But we also have to as a fan base understand the metrics don’t favor teams ranked in the 100’s in defensive efficiency by KP making deep runs in ncaa tourney.

Not sure who watched the Xavier v St Johns game last night but St Johns second half defense was really, really good.

 

[FreeKlaiber]

I agree. But it truly think the fix with this team is leaning all the way into our strength. The offensive side of the ball. Play adequate defense and score 75+ every night....

The recipe for success is limit possessions by slowing the game down(we already do this), be incredibly efficient, and don't turn the ball over. Most teams won't be able to match our efficiency if we can just offer adequate resistance.

I think the only way to get to "adequate" is to really back off on the attacking extending nature of our Man. Which I don't think is in his DNA

 

[husky429]

I think the only way to get to "adequate" is to really back off on the attacking extending nature of our Man. Which I don't think is in his DNA

I think the problem is we aren't defending the 3 or the rim well right now. The whole point of the tight defense 1 pass away is to limit 3-point shooting. So if we play more of a pack, does it just get worse? There's a huge risk there and I certainly have dug enough into the film to know what to do.

 

[AntG168]

I am ok with that strategy. But we also have to as a fan base understand the metrics don’t favor teams ranked in the 100’s in defensive efficiency by KP making deep runs in ncaa tourney.

Not sure who watched the Xavier v St Johns game last night but St Johns second half defense was really, really good.

I think we can get to top 75 defensively if these opposing 3 point percentages regress to the mean. Bad defense considered opponents are still shooting an insanely high percentage from 3 which is dragging our rating down. Some of that is just a statistical anomaly. I expect that to even out over the next 2 months.

 

[AntG168]

I think the problem is we aren't defending the 3 or the rim well right now. The whole point of the tight defense 1 pass away is to limit 3-point shooting. So if we play more of a pack, does it just get worse? There's a huge risk there and I certainly have dug enough into the film to know what to do.

We struggle guarding post ups(1v1) at the rim. We actually are pretty decent at guarding drives to the rim with our help defense. We need to find a way to limit post ups. I'm just not sure how to do it. It's why I don't get paid the big bucks.

 

[FreeKlaiber]

I think the problem is we aren't defending the 3 or the rim well right now. The whole point of the tight defense 1 pass away is to limit 3-point shooting. So if we play more of a pack, does it just get worse? There's a huge risk there and I certainly have dug enough into the film to know what to do.

im guessing they are doing the metrics that it is better to take away the 3, than to pack it up (like we did with Purdue). But the issue is we extend and deny the 3 pt line, but than cant stop the penetration on the extend anyways. I shudder to think what an athletic team like Alabama that spreads court and shoots the 3 would do, because we arent taking away either the 3 or ISOs. I do have faith we are gonna find out really soon, the staff has to see this. I think a by product of dialing back attacking D is more Reed time hopefully posting up (and I love Samson)

 

[husky429]

We struggle guarding post ups(1v1) at the rim. We actually are pretty decent at guarding drives to the rim with our help defense. We need to find a way to limit post ups. I'm just not sure how to do it. It's why I don't get paid the big bucks.

So much of post-up defense just needs to come from your big being a smart, tough SOB. Samson and Reed both struggle for different reasons. If it's coming from true post ups or offensive boards, your solution is going to have to come from aggressive perimeter digs to disrupt the opponents dribble in the post.

If we're getting beat more on things like short rim runs and transition, that's a tougher game plan. You've gotta tighten up or simplify the PnR rotations (maybe make it easy by using drop more). It's probably too late in the season to do any really detailed overhaul or to teach the guys skills like more advanced footwork.

 

[Umami Zen]

Gotta play with the guys we have. I would like to see hustle plays and gaining possession of the ball(on D) as a priority. Can't score without ball possession. Grabbing loose balls-getting in passing lanes-team rebounding emphasis-simply keeping your guy in front of you. Effort stuff not talent stuff. Can't tell you how many times over the last 5 games where one of our defenders is isolated-side cleared out with not even PnR action- and our help D has their backs to the action. No chance at help D if they go to the bucket. If the counterpoint is you've got to stay on your guy to run him off the 3 point line(a kick out pass) -our Bigs are simply not offering any rim resistance/defense to help our guys being iso'ed. Telfort/Neal as examples.

Nuts and bolts-Not sophisticated defensive schemes.

 

[JustbrewitMan]

I think the problem is we aren't defending the 3 or the rim well right now. The whole point of the tight defense 1 pass away is to limit 3-point shooting. So if we play more of a pack, does it just get worse? There's a huge risk there and I certainly have dug enough into the film to know what to do.

We are #2 in the nation in Opp 3pt attempts/game (17.2). The next high major clocks in at #16 (Auburn, 18.8/gm). We're doing this versus teams that typically average 20-28 attempts/game, & many of these teams are well above-average 3pt shooting teams (thus the "horrible" 3pt% defense of 37.4%, ranked #313 that all the talking heads like to focus on)

Many of the limited 3's we've been letting teams take since early December are ones you can live with if they go in (either distance or defense on the attempt). Lots of them are going in. I guess you just have to live with good shooters (and lousy shooters) bringing their best when they play us. Things like banked-in 3s as the shot clock expires.

We're also #20 in Opp 2pt FG%, but of course we foul way way too much so we let teams take 23 FT/g (#313).

Interestingly, our paint/rim protection is actually above-average compared to other teams (Opp mid-range 34.2%, rim 52.7%), but of course we sorely miss Donovan's elite rim protection (#'s vs. similar comp were 38.6% / 48.7%).

I think the most glaring issue to fix is mainly fouling on defense. How we solve that issue without affecting our elite/good metrics in others is beyond my pay grade. We pay our staff nicely to tinker with plans/schemes.

 

[JustbrewitMan]

I think the problem is we aren't defending the 3 or the rim well right now. The whole point of the tight defense 1 pass away is to limit 3-point shooting. So if we play more of a pack, does it just get worse? There's a huge risk there and I certainly have dug enough into the film to know what to do.

I fully expect us to make some defensive changes for the St. John's game where we can live with more 3's. Unfortunately, I also expect that they will shoot something like 20 for 25 from 3pt vs. us.

 

[AntG168]

We are #2 in the nation in Opp 3pt attempts/game (17.2). The next high major clocks in at #16 (Auburn, 18.8/gm). We're doing this versus teams that typically average 20-28 attempts/game, & many of these teams are well above-average 3pt shooting teams (thus the "horrible" 3pt% defense of 37.4%, ranked #313 that all the talking heads like to focus on)

Many of the limited 3's we've been letting teams take since early December are ones you can live with if they go in (either distance or defense on the attempt). Lots of them are going in. I guess you just have to live with good shooters (and lousy shooters) bringing their best when they play us. Things like banked-in 3s as the shot clock expires.

We're also #20 in Opp 2pt FG%, but of course we foul way way too much so we let teams take 23 FT/g (#313).

Interestingly, our paint/rim protection is actually above-average compared to other teams (Opp mid-range 34.2%, rim 52.7%), but of course we sorely miss Donovan's elite rim protection (#'s vs. similar comp were 38.6% / 48.7%).

I think the most glaring issue to fix is mainly fouling on defense. How we solve that issue without affecting our elite/good metrics in others is beyond my pay grade. We pay our staff nicely to tinker with plans/schemes.

This why I think our defense may improve to top 75 with simply some of these abnormal 3pt % regressing to the mean. I mean it has to at some point.

 

[Umami Zen]

We are #2 in the nation in Opp 3pt attempts/game (17.2). The next high major clocks in at #16 (Auburn, 18.8/gm). We're doing this versus teams that typically average 20-28 attempts/game, & many of these teams are well above-average 3pt shooting teams (thus the "horrible" 3pt% defense of 37.4%, ranked #313 that all the talking heads like to focus on)

Many of the limited 3's we've been letting teams take since early December are ones you can live with if they go in (either distance or defense on the attempt). Lots of them are going in. I guess you just have to live with good shooters (and lousy shooters) bringing their best when they play us. Things like banked-in 3s as the shot clock expires.

We're also #20 in Opp 2pt FG%, but of course we foul way way too much so we let teams take 23 FT/g (#313).

Interestingly, our paint/rim protection is actually above-average compared to other teams (Opp mid-range 34.2%, rim 52.7%), but of course we sorely miss Donovan's elite rim protection (#'s vs. similar comp were 38.6% / 48.7%).

I think the most glaring issue to fix is mainly fouling on defense. How we solve that issue without affecting our elite/good metrics in others is beyond my pay grade. We pay our staff nicely to tinker with plans/schemes.

Appreciate your research and comments. Metrics/stats suggest better numbers than the eye test. Next 5 or 6 games will be a grind with excellent coaching matchups vs DH. Mild improvement(on D) with Liam's return falling somewhere in that grouping will be timely. Our offense will be continue to be excellent as long as our shooters can get their shots.

 

[storrsroars]

Just thought I'd throw in a reality check...

Since 2010, only four teams with a KP defensivive rating over 100 have made it through the first weekend of the tourney. But we'll say five since ND did it with a 99 in '15.

2015: Notre Dame (lost in Sweet 16)
2016: Notre Dame (lost in Sweet 16)
2018: Nevada (lost in Sweet 16)
2022: Miami (lost in Elite 8)
2024: Alabama (lost in FF)

It's not impossible to have a decent tourney, but it is highly unlikely unless the D improves dramatically the next seven weeks.

 

[JustbrewitMan]

Just thought I'd throw in a reality check...

Since 2010, only four teams with a KP defensivive rating over 100 have made it through the first weekend of the tourney. But we'll say five since ND did it with a 99 in '15.

2015: Notre Dame (lost in Sweet 16)
2016: Notre Dame (lost in Sweet 16)
2018: Nevada (lost in Sweet 16)
2022: Miami (lost in Elite 8)
2024: Alabama (lost in FF)

It's not impossible to have a decent tourney, but it is highly unlikely unless the D improves dramatically the next seven weeks.

[note this post is somewhat sarcasm]

Common theme for all those teams was a minimum Top #19 offense to offset the "bad" defense...

The best news is "bad defensive teams" keep trending better and better over the years. Sweet 16 was the ceiling until 2022. Final 4 last year. The data backs it...no reason why we can't win it all!

 

[JustbrewitMan]

This why I think our defense may improve to top 75 with simply some of these abnormal 3pt % regressing to the mean. I mean it has to at some point.

If we can get Liam back & healthy the rest of the season, I really like our ceiling. And all of this time for our bench guys while he's recovering can hopefully improve our floor.

Look at our key metrics from 12/1/24 until Liam's injury when he was on the court (which was 36min/game except for the Xavier/DePaul games, where he played only 22/25 due to fouls/injury:

It's not apples-to-apples comparisons to KenPom, of course, but that NetRtg is a "Top 5" number (Duke current KP#1 is +36.7). The ORtg Adj Pts/100 is a couple pts higher than current #1 Auburn. DRtg sits in the 30-35 range based on this week's teams' numbers.

We were an elite (and improving) team until Liam's injury.