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How good is UConn

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Woof said:
And UCLA just beat them by 51!!!!! I believe 51 is much higher than 26. Iowa is 8th in Massey. Villanova is 38th and we only beat them by 14. UCLA is not going to fear us.
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Iowa had a horrendous shooting night: they're 6th in the country, but except for Ava Heiden they went 10-50. UCLA's defense is solid but not otherworldly. 20 of that 51 was poured on in the 4th quarter when the game was out of reach. I still think UCLA is the second-best team in the country, but a lopsided win shouldn't be enough to flip the seeding this late in the season.
 
fomalhaut said:
Iowa had a horrendous shooting night: they're 6th in the country, but except for Ava Heiden they went 10-50. UCLA's defense is solid but not otherworldly. 20 of that 51 was poured on in the 4th quarter when the game was out of reach. I still think UCLA is the second-best team in the country, but a lopsided win shouldn't be enough to flip the seeding this late in the season.
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You are probably right about the seeding but, if SC is #4, I want to be #2.

Anyway, the point still holds that it doesn't make sense to say that UCLA isn't close to UConn. By any metric, they are.
 
It's so hard to compare a game that was #12 for both teams in the season (UConn vs. Iowa) vs. the very last game of the regular season in a conference championship game. Plus, UCLA was en fuego from 3 going 13-26 - a whopping 50% shooting. They don't shoot like that every game.

Still, UCLA had 6 players make a 3, all of them better than 33% for the day. That's some great shooting. Against us in a NC game, that would be tough to beat.

Honestly, I do think this UConn team is really good. I don't mean this as a criticism of any posters who have discussed it, but I don't care if we are better or worse than last year's team. All we need to be is better than the hopefully 6 teams we face in the tourney, even if it's just by 1 point.

Last year, our romp thru the 2 teams in the final 4 was epic. It was a testament to how dialed in the team was and how good the game plan was. This year we have more depth which will allow for more defensive intensity. How will that play out? No idea. Hopefully really well. I like our chances, but there isn't a universe where I would announce that we are "head and shoulders" better than everyone else in the country. And again, we don't need to be. Just a little bit better will work too.
 
husky98 said:
The UCLA roster is just way more talented than last year. 6 seniors and super seniors is rare beyond rare. Rice is playing way better, Kneepkens and Leger-Walker also upgrades. Betts doesn't have to do it all this year. Cori has a lot of room for error. There really shouldn't be any shame in losing to that team.
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Oh, I agree, but I was responding the the notion that Cori is a signiicantly better coach.
 
WiseWillie said:
Not wanting to stray too far from the topic but www.herhoopststs.com (For those BY'ers not familiar they produce weekly stat assessments of women's basketball.) Anyway, today they put out what they call a Win Variance Analysis that shows nine statistics about how teams win computed from all games or the season. It certainly looks comprehensive but my bringing it up on this forum is to find out from those who study and are familiar with b-ball stats more than perhaps the rest of us how they assess their analysis. Positive, negative or other?
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It’s a good analysis. But one would caution against concluding something that the analysis does not really say, but may imply: that archetype dominant teams (the non-“versatile” teams) cannot win any other way.

The HerHoopStats article (here | methodology) relies on Dean Oliver’s Four Factors (a very brief description on UConn’s is here, updated with 3PA Rate):
  • The analysis relies on residuals — winning in an archetype way (there are 5 identified archetypes this season) despite what an opponent usually does.
The dominant archetype top NET (adjusted Net Efficiency) teams in the article seem non-versatile simply because they don’t need to play anything else other than their (A) archetype game to win in the regular season.
  • In the Final Four, such teams will clash, and who wins will depend on who can play their A archetype game better or who can better adjust.
In the Texas vs. South Carolina SEC finals, TX proved it can adjust:
  • They are not as dependent on Harmon (! a big reason in their losses) and Booker, they were 4-7 from 3, and other people showed up; they still play at their scintillating pace (63 possessions);
  • But to secure that win to be in the Fort Worth pod, Schaefer gave up a heads up; if anyone was underestimating TX, they sure aren’t anymore.
As for UCLA, they only have 1 loss but they only have 1 Final Four caliber game, which they lost.
  • Their loss to TX (UCL 65, TEX 76 - FINAL) exposed their vulnerabilities to a defensive-minded team (they committed 10 turnovers more than TX, had 11 fewer FGAs and Harmon had a great game).
  • Scoring-wise (TS%), UConn has better efficient scorers than UCLA; UCLA makes up for the inefficiency by crashing the boards (the archetype identified by HerHoopStats).
I have previously described UConn as an Operational Death Star — just how good they are is not yet revealed (or equally plausible, not yet tested).
 
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oldude said:
Pretty good analysis. But UConn has a secret weapon if they match up with UCLA. Her name is Cori Close…., 😎
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This post aged like fine surstromming.
 
For all objective purposes, UConn was a mystery this season. They could have been anywhere from One to Four in comparison to the top four teams. The reason being their lack of playing teams that even had a chance to beat them if they were playing less than stallar games.
 
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sun said:
The fate of the Huskies is in Geno's hands and how he ends up managing the team for each critical game.
Of course the players also need to respond in kind, and if they don't then it's Geno's job to help get them on track.
It's always possible that no matter what Geno does & how hard the players try that another team will have all of the wind in their sails.
But that's what makes watching the games so exciting, that the outcome is never in the bag no matter how confident or superior a team seems to be on paper.
We should all know how finicky the Wilson ball can bounce and how referees can take control over a game.
I think a crucial decision for Geno will be whether he chooses to shorten the bench or continue with his current substitution pattern.
UConn may be able to win #13 either way, or perhaps not win using either method.
We need to admit that it's possible that another team may end up being just as unstoppable as we'd like to think that UConn is.
Once the NC game starts being played the NCAA trophy is up for grabs.
Anything can happen between now & the final buzzer.
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I have to agree that the final result of the coming year will be more of a result of Geno's coaching than simply the player's skills. This past year, Huskies played one style which while effective, needed to be tweeked against SC. Basketball often is a game based on situational matchups. For all of our competitors that have for over 10 years tried to position Geno as too old, he has built another top 4 team with as good or better chance of winning as any team out there. I fully expect the Huskies to be there at the end and look forward to those minor but critical changes the coaching staff will make.
 
HopJim said:
I have to agree that the final result of the coming year will be more of a result of Geno's coaching than simply the player's skills. This past year, Huskies played one style which while effective, needed to be tweeked against SC. Basketball often is a game based on situational matchups. For all of our competitors that have for over 10 years tried to position Geno as too old, he has built another top 4 team with as good or better chance of winning as any team out there. I fully expect the Huskies to be there at the end and look forward to those minor but critical changes the coaching staff will make.
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Geno has had a great record. The women's field has more talent than in many past seasons. The transfer market has enabled the top teams with financial means to consolidate their positions at the top. Two positions seem to the key to maintain ourselves. A mobile solid fundamentals center and quick talented guards. We had the latter.

We went a long way with a nearly undefeated season. With so many final four appearances to Genos credit, we are consistently among the best. A top player or two make the difference as to who wins. Paige was that difference for last year's win. There aren't many Paige's around with the fire in the belly and talent to match.

The Huskies are still among the best. What a great season it has been. Thanks.
 
freshler40 said:
Geno has had a great record. The women's field has more talent than in many past seasons. The transfer market has enabled the top teams with financial means to consolidate their positions at the top. Two positions seem to the key to maintain ourselves. A mobile solid fundamentals center and quick talented guards. We had the latter.

We went a long way with a nearly undefeated season. With so many final four appearances to Genos credit, we are consistently among the best. A top player or two make the difference as to who wins. Paige was that difference for last year's win. There aren't many Paige's around with the fire in the belly and talent to match.

The Huskies are still among the best. What a great season it has been. Thanks.
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100% this. I know losing in the semis hurts, not getting to the final hurts, and DT said it best (paraphrasing) - UConn gets to the Final Four 25 times and some folks think that's a bad season. And yes, I understand that the ultimate goal is a natty, however if I sit back and look at all the greatness I've witnessed since 1995, I have to appreciate it all, as the level of excellence is astounding.
 
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I was so disappointed after the loss, but then seeing the kids crying in the locker room, reflecting on all those Final Fours, and Geno's commitment to beautiful pass and shoot basketball, I love this program more than ever. What a great group of kids we witnessed this season, you can really tell how much they love each other.
 
I think that Olivia is going to be the answer to our rebounding problems and that, in terms of what we have needed, should put us over top. But we will have to continue to schedule strong teams when playing out of conference because the teams in our conference continue to give us nothing but absent competition.
 
Steelerone said:
I think that Olivia is going to be the answer to our rebounding problems and that, in terms of what we have needed, should put us over top. But we will have to continue to schedule strong teams when playing out of conference because the teams in our conference continue to give us nothing but absent competition.
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If we are pinning our hopes on a freshman post, we are in big trouble.

On the topic of Close, Close is not a great coach. She assembled a great team and being in LA helped in several of those transfer cases. They had a very good team. I think they were a close #2 to our #1. The difference between our loss in the semis and UCLA's win in the finals was 17 fouls called on SC versus 8. SC needs to be able to foul to win, period.

Texas was as good as UCLA. UCLA shot 12 FTs, Texas shot 5 in their semifinal. UCLA, like us, needed the refs to call fouls on our opponent.

The only thing that can GUARANTEE that we don't get a repeat of this year (and a very similar 2018) is to be so much better than everyone else that the refs can't determine the outcome. In no universe will relying on a freshman post result in that situtation. Geno needs to grab the best possible players in the portal for that to happen and we already lost out on two of them. For the record, no, I don't want Audi.
 
As the season is over, perhaps we can shift to the 26-27 thread as a look ahead to what's next.
 
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