How big is this Cincy game?

[Justin M]

2013-2014 Huskies were on a 15-4 through 19 games with loses to Stamford, Louisville, Houston, and SMU.

2015-2016 Huskies are 14-5 through 19 games with loses to Temple, Syracuse, Gonzaga and Tulsa.

Obviously totally different times and totally different fields, but a nice bench mark to look at.

 

[gwhuskyfan]

It's also about standings. If we have to play in the American we might as well win it.

SMU has 1 loss. We have 2.

Cinci, Tulsa, Temple, Memphis, UCF all have 3. Let's stay above the fray.

This is the big thing in my opinion. A win here really sets us up on a nice path to try and get the 1 seed for the conference tourney.

 

[OkaForPrez]

Not to be that guy but a 10 seed would be in the same position as a 7 seed on the bracket. Though I get your point.

Someone had to be that guy, we were all thinking it.

 

[jibsey]

what are our percentage chances of winning away games against Cincy and SMU? Not above 50%, so these home games are crucial. Losing without Brimah would be small but something we could point to when the committee is evaluating us.

 

[tcf15]

For the RPI crowd, here's the impact the outcome of tonight's game could have:

Win, and we have a 15-5 record with an RPI of 50
Lose, and we have a 14-6 record with an RPI of 78

 

[Calhoun's Court]

It's a must win. Home game and quality opponent.

have to expect a rock fight tonight. Just a physical battle.
Gotta leave the XL with the W.

 

[Mano]

For the RPI crowd, here's the impact the outcome of tonight's game could have:

Win, and we have a 15-5 record with an RPI of 50
Lose, and we have a 14-6 record with an RPI of 78

Gaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!

 

[Tenspro2002]

For the RPI crowd, here's the impact the outcome of tonight's game could have:

Win, and we have a 15-5 record with an RPI of 50
Lose, and we have a 14-6 record with an RPI of 78

We're getting to the time of year when the RPI starts to mean something. An NCAAT lock will require a sub-40 RPI; 40-50 is the bubble, 50+ is NIT. It's a hell of a lot easier to get there starting from 50 than from 78. We're not going to see too many 30-spot games in the future.

 

[Chief00]

Quite frankly, my take is its not an absolute must win but very close for the reasons cited in the prior posts.

What the players need to do though is focus on executing in the game. Three keys: rebounds, 3 point shooting and foul shooting %.

Getting out and running would be huge too but not convince that's in the DNA. My sense is Coach Miller has won the zone debate - I am not a big fan of UConn playing zones - and for every defensive liability it covers up - I hope it doesn't make us too passive.

 

[tzznandrew]

There just aren't the same opportunities for big wins this year as there were last year. The AAC had a number of Top 100 teams last year that just aren't right now, or Top 50 teams that are in the lower Top 100.

Memphis (last year: 83, now: 132)
Cincy (37, 70)
Temple (34, 78)
Tulsa (45, 61)

While Houston is now a Top 150 rather than sub-200 team, and East Carolina is a Top 160 rather than sub-200...it's just not enough. Those four teams have regressed. In the case of Cincy and Tulsa it doesn't make a lot of sense.

And without those opportunities, we need to win games like this.

 

[Slasher]

Games aren't just a chance to win and look good to make the tournament, its also personal, and Caupain is a senior now right? That guy is pulling a Scottie Reynolds, seems like he's been there 6 years

Caupain is still only a junior.

 

[nomar]

Curious as to everyone's thoughts on this one. Is it a must win, pretty close or we're ok in your mind if we stumble here?

I tend to lean towards pretty crucial rather than "must." Protecting one's home turf agains a team with similar thoughts and needs at this point looking forward is a sign of strength. If they are playing better and are finding their way then this will separate them from the pack a bit. Cincy is tough as we know, really goes to get it on the o-boards so everyone needs to stick their nose in and rebound. I've been seeing Rodney get in an rebound on occasion well in this one I think we need all crashers and less leakers for obvious reasons.

Bog one for DHam, at least it would be if he suddenly finds his offense, but also a game where it would be nice if Shonn muscled up and grabbed 10 boards and Steve got a few minutes hitting some people.

Looking forward to seeing where these guys are tonight.

How big is this game?

 

[Slasher]

There just aren't the same opportunities for big wins this year as there were last year. The AAC had a number of Top 100 teams last year that just aren't right now, or Top 50 teams that are in the lower Top 100.

Memphis (last year: 83, now: 132)
Cincy (37, 70)
Temple (34, 78)
Tulsa (45, 61)

While Houston is now a Top 150 rather than sub-200 team, and East Carolina is a Top 160 rather than sub-200...it's just not enough. Those four teams have regressed. In the case of Cincy and Tulsa it doesn't make a lot of sense.

And without those opportunities, we need to win games like this.

The RPI is such a horrible rating system is the main reason why. It's hard to see how Cincinnati's non-conference RPI is so bad. Their current NC-SOS is #148. Yet they played @ #3 Xavier, #8 Iowa State, (n) #32 GW, @ #44 VCU, #59 Butler. How does a team play those 5 teams (2 true road games and 1 neutral site) and have a NC-SOS of #148? I guess the bottom couple of teams really kill them, but that's really silly. Any team >200 is about the same amount of difficulty for real teams.

 

[David 76]

Must win for what?
To get in the tourney? Not yet.
To build for a more dominant year? Pretty much.

I see this as very important, crucial, but not critical.
We lose this it makes other games critical.

 

[OkaForPrez]

The RPI is such a horrible rating system is the main reason why. It's hard to see how Cincinnati's non-conference RPI is so bad. Their current NC-SOS is #148. Yet they played @ #3 Xavier, #8 Iowa State, (n) #32 GW, @ #44 VCU, #59 Butler. How does a team play those 5 teams (2 true road games and 1 neutral site) and have a NC-SOS of #148? I guess the bottom couple of teams really kill them, but that's really silly. Any team >200 is about the same amount of difficulty for real teams.

Yup, this is the scam of it.

 

[tcf15]

The RPI is such a horrible rating system is the main reason why. It's hard to see how Cincinnati's non-conference RPI is so bad. Their current NC-SOS is #148. Yet they played @ #3 Xavier, #8 Iowa State, (n) #32 GW, @ #44 VCU, #59 Butler. How does a team play those 5 teams (2 true road games and 1 neutral site) and have a NC-SOS of #148? I guess the bottom couple of teams really kill them, but that's really silly. Any team >200 is about the same amount of difficulty for real teams.

Yup, this is the scam of it.

Yeah, it's crazy.

Using RPI Wizard, I took out 5 of the 200+ teams (Western Carolina, Robert Morris, Arkansas Pine Bluff, Southeastern Louisiana and Morgan St.) and added 5 teams currently ranked 195-199 in RPI (Western Kentucky, NJIT, Hampton, Furman, and Western Michigan).

SOS for Cinci went from 92 to 38. RPI went from 59 to 27. Kind of absurd.

 

[Slasher]

Yeah, it's crazy.

Using RPI Wizard, I took out 5 teams of the 200+ teams (Western Carolina, Robert Morris, Arkansas Pine Bluff, Southeastern Louisiana and Morgan St.) and added 5 teams currently ranked 195-199 in RPI (Western Kentucky, NJIT, Hampton, Furman, and Western Michigan).

SOS for Cinci went from 92 to 38. RPI went from 59 to 27. Kind of absurd.

I dream of the day when the committee uses the KenPom as the standard. I know it's a "factor" but all the committee material shows wins vs RPI top 100 and RPI top 50. Not vs. the best rating system out there KenPom.

 

[OkaForPrez]

Yeah, it's crazy.

Using RPI Wizard, I took out 5 teams of the 200+ teams (Western Carolina, Robert Morris, Arkansas Pine Bluff, Southeastern Louisiana and Morgan St.) and added 5 teams currently ranked 195-199 in RPI (Western Kentucky, NJIT, Hampton, Furman, and Western Michigan).

SOS for Cinci went from 92 to 38. RPI went from 59 to 27. Kind of absurd.

You should tweet that at Bilas.

 

[AZHuskiePop]

Curious as to everyone's thoughts on this one. Is it a must win, pretty close or we're ok in your mind if we stumble here?

I tend to lean towards pretty crucial rather than "must." Protecting one's home turf agains a team with similar thoughts and needs at this point looking forward is a sign of strength. If they are playing better and are finding their way then this will separate them from the pack a bit. Cincy is tough as we know, really goes to get it on the o-boards so everyone needs to stick their nose in and rebound. IjJ've been seeing Rodney get in an rebound on occasion well in this one I think we need all crashers and less leakers for obvious reasons.

Bog one for DHam, at least it would be if he suddenly finds his offense, but also a game where it would be nice if Shonn muscled up and grabbed 10 boards and Steve got a few minutes hitting some people.

Looking forward to seeing where these guys are tonight.

Every home conference game is a must win.
The Amateur hour officiating has made winning on the road even more difficult than normal. (see the Tulane game if you don't believe )
Temple lost at East Carolina last night ,so every road game is a potential loss.
Our loss to Temple at home has been the one game that has put us in a huge hole.
We have two conference road wins one significant ,those help.

 

[Leebo]

I think we all agree that we should schedule more middle-of-the-road teams rather than absolute garbage teams, but the trick is predicting them in advance.

It's hindsight to say that X team with a 250 RPI shouldn't have been scheduled, but the trick is to predict what their RPI will be years in advance.

Sure, some teams are more or less likely to fall into a certain range, but we all know how hard it is to even predict the performance of some of our conference foes even as close as midnight madness.

 

[Dove]

 

[sammydabiz]

Don't forget, Cinci is gonna come in with a bug up their arse, due to the heroics Boat pulled off in the AAC tourney, last time we met. It's a must win at home

 

[tcf15]

I'm in agreement with most of you, its not a must win but its certainly a big game. On top of what it means for conference standings, tourney resume, etc., I feel like Cinci is our main rival here. Sure SMU is always a big gun in the conference and we want to beat them, but I think of Cinci and UConn as the older brothers in the conference constantly fighting for alpha status. I'm sure this game to our players and theirs is bigger than a W or an L and I hope our teams keep that mindset going forward in this conference or a different one.

Games aren't just a chance to win and look good to make the tournament, its also personal, and Caupain is a senior now right? That guy is pulling a Scottie Reynolds, seems like he's been there 6 years

Caupain is only a junior lol

 

[Kembacity]

Caupain is only a junior lol

Please tell me you're Steve Harveying me TCF, I cannot believe that

 

[tcf15]

http://www.gobearcats.com/sports/m-baskbl/mtt/troy_caupain_868254.html