How big is this Cincy game?

[Calhoun's Court]

It's a must win. Home game and quality opponent.

have to expect a rock fight tonight. Just a physical battle.
Gotta leave the XL with the W.

 

[Mano]

For the RPI crowd, here's the impact the outcome of tonight's game could have:

Win, and we have a 15-5 record with an RPI of 50
Lose, and we have a 14-6 record with an RPI of 78

Gaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!

 

[Tenspro2002]

For the RPI crowd, here's the impact the outcome of tonight's game could have:

Win, and we have a 15-5 record with an RPI of 50
Lose, and we have a 14-6 record with an RPI of 78

We're getting to the time of year when the RPI starts to mean something. An NCAAT lock will require a sub-40 RPI; 40-50 is the bubble, 50+ is NIT. It's a hell of a lot easier to get there starting from 50 than from 78. We're not going to see too many 30-spot games in the future.

 

[Chief00]

Quite frankly, my take is its not an absolute must win but very close for the reasons cited in the prior posts.

What the players need to do though is focus on executing in the game. Three keys: rebounds, 3 point shooting and foul shooting %.

Getting out and running would be huge too but not convince that's in the DNA. My sense is Coach Miller has won the zone debate - I am not a big fan of UConn playing zones - and for every defensive liability it covers up - I hope it doesn't make us too passive.

 

[tzznandrew]

There just aren't the same opportunities for big wins this year as there were last year. The AAC had a number of Top 100 teams last year that just aren't right now, or Top 50 teams that are in the lower Top 100.

Memphis (last year: 83, now: 132)
Cincy (37, 70)
Temple (34, 78)
Tulsa (45, 61)

While Houston is now a Top 150 rather than sub-200 team, and East Carolina is a Top 160 rather than sub-200...it's just not enough. Those four teams have regressed. In the case of Cincy and Tulsa it doesn't make a lot of sense.

And without those opportunities, we need to win games like this.

 

[Slasher]

Games aren't just a chance to win and look good to make the tournament, its also personal, and Caupain is a senior now right? That guy is pulling a Scottie Reynolds, seems like he's been there 6 years

Caupain is still only a junior.

 

[nomar]

Curious as to everyone's thoughts on this one. Is it a must win, pretty close or we're ok in your mind if we stumble here?

I tend to lean towards pretty crucial rather than "must." Protecting one's home turf agains a team with similar thoughts and needs at this point looking forward is a sign of strength. If they are playing better and are finding their way then this will separate them from the pack a bit. Cincy is tough as we know, really goes to get it on the o-boards so everyone needs to stick their nose in and rebound. I've been seeing Rodney get in an rebound on occasion well in this one I think we need all crashers and less leakers for obvious reasons.

Bog one for DHam, at least it would be if he suddenly finds his offense, but also a game where it would be nice if Shonn muscled up and grabbed 10 boards and Steve got a few minutes hitting some people.

Looking forward to seeing where these guys are tonight.

How big is this game?

 

[Slasher]

There just aren't the same opportunities for big wins this year as there were last year. The AAC had a number of Top 100 teams last year that just aren't right now, or Top 50 teams that are in the lower Top 100.

Memphis (last year: 83, now: 132)
Cincy (37, 70)
Temple (34, 78)
Tulsa (45, 61)

While Houston is now a Top 150 rather than sub-200 team, and East Carolina is a Top 160 rather than sub-200...it's just not enough. Those four teams have regressed. In the case of Cincy and Tulsa it doesn't make a lot of sense.

And without those opportunities, we need to win games like this.

The RPI is such a horrible rating system is the main reason why. It's hard to see how Cincinnati's non-conference RPI is so bad. Their current NC-SOS is #148. Yet they played @ #3 Xavier, #8 Iowa State, (n) #32 GW, @ #44 VCU, #59 Butler. How does a team play those 5 teams (2 true road games and 1 neutral site) and have a NC-SOS of #148? I guess the bottom couple of teams really kill them, but that's really silly. Any team >200 is about the same amount of difficulty for real teams.

 

[David 76]

Must win for what?
To get in the tourney? Not yet.
To build for a more dominant year? Pretty much.

I see this as very important, crucial, but not critical.
We lose this it makes other games critical.

 

[OkaForPrez]

The RPI is such a horrible rating system is the main reason why. It's hard to see how Cincinnati's non-conference RPI is so bad. Their current NC-SOS is #148. Yet they played @ #3 Xavier, #8 Iowa State, (n) #32 GW, @ #44 VCU, #59 Butler. How does a team play those 5 teams (2 true road games and 1 neutral site) and have a NC-SOS of #148? I guess the bottom couple of teams really kill them, but that's really silly. Any team >200 is about the same amount of difficulty for real teams.

Yup, this is the scam of it.

 

[tcf15]

The RPI is such a horrible rating system is the main reason why. It's hard to see how Cincinnati's non-conference RPI is so bad. Their current NC-SOS is #148. Yet they played @ #3 Xavier, #8 Iowa State, (n) #32 GW, @ #44 VCU, #59 Butler. How does a team play those 5 teams (2 true road games and 1 neutral site) and have a NC-SOS of #148? I guess the bottom couple of teams really kill them, but that's really silly. Any team >200 is about the same amount of difficulty for real teams.

Yup, this is the scam of it.

Yeah, it's crazy.

Using RPI Wizard, I took out 5 of the 200+ teams (Western Carolina, Robert Morris, Arkansas Pine Bluff, Southeastern Louisiana and Morgan St.) and added 5 teams currently ranked 195-199 in RPI (Western Kentucky, NJIT, Hampton, Furman, and Western Michigan).

SOS for Cinci went from 92 to 38. RPI went from 59 to 27. Kind of absurd.

 

[Slasher]

Yeah, it's crazy.

Using RPI Wizard, I took out 5 teams of the 200+ teams (Western Carolina, Robert Morris, Arkansas Pine Bluff, Southeastern Louisiana and Morgan St.) and added 5 teams currently ranked 195-199 in RPI (Western Kentucky, NJIT, Hampton, Furman, and Western Michigan).

SOS for Cinci went from 92 to 38. RPI went from 59 to 27. Kind of absurd.

I dream of the day when the committee uses the KenPom as the standard. I know it's a "factor" but all the committee material shows wins vs RPI top 100 and RPI top 50. Not vs. the best rating system out there KenPom.

 

[OkaForPrez]

Yeah, it's crazy.

Using RPI Wizard, I took out 5 teams of the 200+ teams (Western Carolina, Robert Morris, Arkansas Pine Bluff, Southeastern Louisiana and Morgan St.) and added 5 teams currently ranked 195-199 in RPI (Western Kentucky, NJIT, Hampton, Furman, and Western Michigan).

SOS for Cinci went from 92 to 38. RPI went from 59 to 27. Kind of absurd.

You should tweet that at Bilas.

 

[AZHuskiePop]

Curious as to everyone's thoughts on this one. Is it a must win, pretty close or we're ok in your mind if we stumble here?

I tend to lean towards pretty crucial rather than "must." Protecting one's home turf agains a team with similar thoughts and needs at this point looking forward is a sign of strength. If they are playing better and are finding their way then this will separate them from the pack a bit. Cincy is tough as we know, really goes to get it on the o-boards so everyone needs to stick their nose in and rebound. IjJ've been seeing Rodney get in an rebound on occasion well in this one I think we need all crashers and less leakers for obvious reasons.

Bog one for DHam, at least it would be if he suddenly finds his offense, but also a game where it would be nice if Shonn muscled up and grabbed 10 boards and Steve got a few minutes hitting some people.

Looking forward to seeing where these guys are tonight.

Every home conference game is a must win.
The Amateur hour officiating has made winning on the road even more difficult than normal. (see the Tulane game if you don't believe )
Temple lost at East Carolina last night ,so every road game is a potential loss.
Our loss to Temple at home has been the one game that has put us in a huge hole.
We have two conference road wins one significant ,those help.

 

[Leebo]

I think we all agree that we should schedule more middle-of-the-road teams rather than absolute garbage teams, but the trick is predicting them in advance.

It's hindsight to say that X team with a 250 RPI shouldn't have been scheduled, but the trick is to predict what their RPI will be years in advance.

Sure, some teams are more or less likely to fall into a certain range, but we all know how hard it is to even predict the performance of some of our conference foes even as close as midnight madness.

 

[Dove]

 

[sammydabiz]

Don't forget, Cinci is gonna come in with a bug up their arse, due to the heroics Boat pulled off in the AAC tourney, last time we met. It's a must win at home

 

[tcf15]

I'm in agreement with most of you, its not a must win but its certainly a big game. On top of what it means for conference standings, tourney resume, etc., I feel like Cinci is our main rival here. Sure SMU is always a big gun in the conference and we want to beat them, but I think of Cinci and UConn as the older brothers in the conference constantly fighting for alpha status. I'm sure this game to our players and theirs is bigger than a W or an L and I hope our teams keep that mindset going forward in this conference or a different one.

Games aren't just a chance to win and look good to make the tournament, its also personal, and Caupain is a senior now right? That guy is pulling a Scottie Reynolds, seems like he's been there 6 years

Caupain is only a junior lol

 

[Kembacity]

Caupain is only a junior lol

Please tell me you're Steve Harveying me TCF, I cannot believe that

 

[tcf15]

http://www.gobearcats.com/sports/m-baskbl/mtt/troy_caupain_868254.html

 

[intlzncster]

Getting out and running would be huge too but not convince that's in the DNA. My sense is Coach Miller has won the zone debate - I am not a big fan of UConn playing zones - and for every defensive liability it covers up - I hope it doesn't make us too passive.

What are you on about? You have a hard on about Miller and this zone. EOD, we are still predominantly man to man, with a sprinkle of zone. And if Ollie didn't think a zone was the way to go, he wouldn't do it. Nothing to do with Miller winning some mythical debate. When did Glen Miller become some zone disciple? I missed that one.

 

[Stainmaster]

What are you on about? You have a hard on about Miller and this zone. EOD, we are still predominantly man to man, with a sprinkle of zone. And if Ollie didn't think a zone was the way to go, he wouldn't do it. Nothing to do with Miller winning some mythical debate. When did Glen Miller become some zone disciple? I missed that one.

Given how much Chief complains about it, I don't understand why he doesn't just put a call in to KO's office and overrule Miller.

 

[intlzncster]

You should tweet that at Bilas.

Why? What's his take?

And what's the deal with RPI? Does the NCAA have some sort of trademark on it? Why does the committee keep using it, when everybody and their dog knows it's a sh!te metric?

Why don't I run things?

 

[SixRings]

 

[intlzncster]

Given how much Chief complains about it, I don't understand why he doesn't just put a call in to KO's office and overrule Miller.

Better yet, get him fired and replaced with Clyde. Why hasn't this been done?

 

[gtcam]

I look at it as a must win in this context - this team seems doomed to have one (at least thats all i hope it is) WTF loss to USF or that ilk.
This win would, in my opinion, overshadow one of those blips.
These are the games that seperate the has from the has nots, the men from the boys.....
Protect the home turf

 

[intlzncster]

I think we all agree that we should schedule more middle-of-the-road teams rather than absolute garbage teams, but the trick is predicting them in advance.

It's hindsight to say that X team with a 250 RPI shouldn't have been scheduled, but the trick is to predict what their RPI will be years in advance.

Sure, some teams are more or less likely to fall into a certain range, but we all know how hard it is to even predict the performance of some of our conference foes even as close as midnight madness.

Think about how hard it is to predict the top 50 each year, and that's with everybody in America paying attention. Those teams are all on TV, all scouted, followed, covered blogged. Now try to rank the bottom 100 teams or so. What with not watching them, nor knowing their personnel, changeover, coaching, etc, it's damn near impossible to do imo.

Honestly, it's even harder than people imagine, getting it to work out with both monetarily and schedule-wise between both programs. And obviously, it gets harder to pick and choose the more games you add (ie the more full your schedule becomes) each season.

The solution, is that you shoot even higher into that mid major bracket. But then you are setting yourself up for way more losses and less home games. It's a tough nut to crack.

 

[SirHypeAlot]

It's a must win and there should be no argument it isn't

 

[upstater]

Yeah, it's crazy.

Using RPI Wizard, I took out 5 of the 200+ teams (Western Carolina, Robert Morris, Arkansas Pine Bluff, Southeastern Louisiana and Morgan St.) and added 5 teams currently ranked 195-199 in RPI (Western Kentucky, NJIT, Hampton, Furman, and Western Michigan).

SOS for Cinci went from 92 to 38. RPI went from 59 to 27. Kind of absurd.

And there you go. Proof positive.

Just schedule NJIT instead of Robert Morris.

 

[Tenspro2002]

Yeah, it's crazy.

Using RPI Wizard, I took out 5 of the 200+ teams (Western Carolina, Robert Morris, Arkansas Pine Bluff, Southeastern Louisiana and Morgan St.) and added 5 teams currently ranked 195-199 in RPI (Western Kentucky, NJIT, Hampton, Furman, and Western Michigan).

SOS for Cinci went from 92 to 38. RPI went from 59 to 27. Kind of absurd.

This analysis is brilliant. I'm sure the story is the same for us, if you replace our sub-250 teams with those in the 150-200 range.

We can complain all we want about how absurd it is that the RPI works this way. The point is, the RPI works this way, and it's the primary tool the Committee uses to evaluate teams. Either we adapt to it or we will suffer. It's too late for this year, but there may be a harsh lesson for us for next year.

Our cupcakes just cannot continue to be the dregs of these horrible, local, northeastern conferences. It's gotta be either the expected champs of those conferences or mediocre mid-majors (think the middle third of conferences like the Ivy, A-10, Colonial, Horizon, Conf. USA, MVC, MAC). Geography isn't the factor it used to be. We got Eastern Washington to come out, why not schools like Marshall (RPI 146), Northern Iowa (150), Columbia (153), Central Michigan (156)?