OT: - Hollinger Scouting Report on AJ | The Boneyard

OT: Hollinger Scouting Report on AJ

bendm

bendm

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highlights (low-lights?) from an article today in the Athletic:
  • Jackson is unquestionably making winning plays all over the place and has NBA athleticism.
  • a wing with the assist-turnover profile of a point guard (10.1 assists per 100 possessions is phenomenal), he rebounds like a four and his defensive dynamism is rather obvious.
  • easy to see him taking better advantage of his gifts in the NBA’s more open floor, especially in transition.
  • but Shooting has never been more important in the NBA, and my goodness, Jackson cannot shoot at all.
  • One rep through the warm-up line is all it takes to see that, a herky-jerky heave that goes wrong early and often.
  • a 29.3 percent career 3-point shooter, and even that seems borderline miraculous.
  • weakness aren’t just limited to 3-point shooting. inside the arc, Jackson shot just 45.9 percent a year ago and is at 50.0 percent this season.
  • also has a massive propensity for fouling for a perimeter player, with a jaw-dropping 6.3 personals per 100 possessions for his career.
  • the biggest question by far for evaluators is the evaluation of their own player development systems. Is Jackson’s jumper fixable? And on what level? and what do we mean by “fixed” here, anyway?
  • Can he at least get to the point where you might think about guarding him, or is he destined to be unplayable in any playoff series?
 
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I've never sugarcoated Jackson's shooting but Hollinger needs to get off the fainting couch. AJ shot 36% last year and he had a finger injury this season.

Between the finger, his form and shot selection, there's a lot of room for improvement.

Hollinger's ultimate takeaway isn't wrong (NBA scouts need to believe his shooting can seriously improve) but I wonder if he watched AJ play last year or is basing this analysis solely on the 6 games he's played this year. Because when someone shoots 22/61 from 3 you're not thinking it's "miraculous" when one goes in.
 
Meaningless. One twenty point game that shows his upside and that report goes out the window. And there will more than one. BTW, 50% inside the arc is pretty good, only centers regularly shoot over 50% inside the arc.
 
nomar said:
I've never sugarcoated Jackson's shooting but Hollinger needs to get off the fainting couch. AJ shot 36% last year and he had a finger injury this season.

Between the finger, his form and shot selection, there's a lot of room for improvement.

Hollinger's ultimate takeaway isn't wrong (NBA scouts need to believe his shooting can seriously improve) but I wonder if he watched AJ play last year or is basing this analysis solely on the 6 games he's played this year. Because when someone shoots 22/61 from 3 you're not thinking it's "miraculous" when one goes in.
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That's sort of the point though. Everyone defending his shot points to that 36% from 3 last year, but based on how he's come out this year that was a high water mark (not to mention almost every one of those was wide open and, obviously, from college distance).

I love AJax. Watching him play for UConn is thrilling and I think he's going to decide more than a few games for us this year. But his lack of shot is a bigger minus than his athleticism is a plus in a league full of athletic freaks. It's too late for it to happen in a UConn jersey, but he should have probably broken his fundamentals completely down at some point and just started from scratch.

Again, this is not a knock on him. I think he's one of the best all around players in college bball this year. I just think that a lot of you downplay the gigantic handicap that is his lack of shot in an NBA that has never valued that more (which is why I think Clingan is overhyped as an NBA prospect at this point as well, but that's an argument for another thread).
 
PAHusky said:
That's sort of the point though. Everyone defending his shot points to that 36% from 3 last year, but based on how he's come out this year that was a high water mark (not to mention almost every one of those was wide open and, obviously, from college distance).

I love AJax. Watching him play for UConn is thrilling and I think he's going to decide more than a few games for us this year. But his lack of shot is a bigger minus than his athleticism is a plus in a league full of athletic freaks. It's too late for it to happen in a UConn jersey, but he should have probably broken his fundamentals completely down at some point and just started from scratch.

Again, this is not a knock on him. I think he's one of the best all around players in college bball this year. I just think that a lot of you downplay the gigantic handicap that is his lack of shot in an NBA that has never valued that more (which is why I think Clingan is overhyped as an NBA prospect at this point as well, but that's an argument for another thread).
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I'm not downplaying it. He shot 22/61 last year. As a freshman he couldn't shoot at all, so that was a big improvement. This year he had what people are calling a "pinky" injury but, as someone who's broken every bone in his pinky I can tell you that calling it "a broken pinky" minimizes the injury. And he's taking 30 footers for some reason. His shot is ugly and he needs to reliably make them to succeed at the next level, no disagreement there, but context matters. He shot 42% from the field and 36% from 3 last year and, barring injury, I was expecting to see the upward trend continue. His form may be not fixable at UConn but if he hits 35-40% from 3, that will get him a lot of interest.
 
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If he could shoot he would be a top 10 pick. He has the drive to work on it.

I think he’s a second round pick because he will get two years in G League to see if that offensive game develops.

Hollister is right though. If you can’t. Shoot, just to keep people honest, then you might be unplayable offensively in big games.
 
61 attempts is a very small sample for 3pt. That number has very little bearing on his actual shooting skill. (3pt shooting % in NBA becomes sticky at 750 cumulative attempts. That number is not even 10% of the way there.) He started out hot and then went 8/35 (23%) over the last 16 games of the season. The 36% counted for us, but it doesn't count for much when evaluating his actual shooting ability or projectability of his shot.

And to be honest, my confidence in his shot is very low. I do find it miraculous when it goes in. He's not wrong. Love a lot else about his game and seemingly as a person. But the jumper.
 
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He’s just not a scorer - his shot is a mess and he just doesn’t score reliably.

He has a huge impact on the game on multiple levels, but scoring is not one of them. He’s made 11 buckets this year and gets to the line about as often as Haley’s Comet. I don’t understand why he doesn’t get to the rim more often, but he doesn’t.

He’s gotta get better there.
 
Love his intensity, love his rebounding and love his defense. If I'm coaching against UConn, I'm doubling Sanogo or Hawkins when he's on the floor. He can shoot as many open 3's as he wants until he proves otherwise. I hope he figures it out, because if he can become a scoring threat, the sky is the limit. I think he has the will and discipline to work on it knowing that's the piece to the puzzle he needs.
 
bendm said:
highlights (low-lights?) from an article today in the Athletic:
  • Jackson is unquestionably making winning plays all over the place and has NBA athleticism.
  • a wing with the assist-turnover profile of a point guard (10.1 assists per 100 possessions is phenomenal), he rebounds like a four and his defensive dynamism is rather obvious.
  • easy to see him taking better advantage of his gifts in the NBA’s more open floor, especially in transition.
  • but Shooting has never been more important in the NBA, and my goodness, Jackson cannot shoot at all.
  • One rep through the warm-up line is all it takes to see that, a herky-jerky heave that goes wrong early and often.
  • a 29.3 percent career 3-point shooter, and even that seems borderline miraculous.
  • weakness aren’t just limited to 3-point shooting. inside the arc, Jackson shot just 45.9 percent a year ago and is at 50.0 percent this season.
  • also has a massive propensity for fouling for a perimeter player, with a jaw-dropping 6.3 personals per 100 possessions for his career.
  • the biggest question by far for evaluators is the evaluation of their own player development systems. Is Jackson’s jumper fixable? And on what level? and what do we mean by “fixed” here, anyway?
  • Can he at least get to the point where you might think about guarding him, or is he destined to be unplayable in any playoff series?
Expand ...
Wasn't Jackson spending the whole summer working on his jump shot? Or did he regress due to the broken finger?
 
USNavyDog said:
Wasn't Jackson spending the whole summer working on his jump shot? Or did he regress due to the broken finger?
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He was. He has a little bit better release and footwork, but ultimately the shot is just too broken to shoot a good % consistently. Fixing your shot is a 3 year project at minimum in the NBA... there just isn't enough coaching in college to completely overhaul a shot like he needs.
 
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Reading this thread, I’m in the minority (or alone) here, but I think his form looks noticeably better this year than before. Not great, but not the disaster that it was when he got to Storrs.
 
AJ is going to get his chance at an NBA career, there's no doubt about that. Who knows, maybe he will be the prototype to the new glue guy that becomes in demand in the NBA due to his constant impact?

Nevertheless, he is ours at the college level and that's a pretty nice advantage to have on your opponent.
 
USNavyDog said:
Wasn't Jackson spending the whole summer working on his jump shot? Or did he regress due to the broken finger?
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Like AS worked hard on passing out of trouble and developing a midrange jumper off the dribble
But both are unique and valuable to this team so I guess it doesn’t matter
Onward to any victories
 
I laugh when they say he has NBA athleticism…ya think? He would be one of the most athletic players in the league in my opinion, he’s an absolute freak athlete
 
I feel like this applies to Andre and his shot. I also think missing the time and having his fingers taped together takes some time getting used to...

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Hamms30 said:
Love his intensity, love his rebounding and love his defense. If I'm coaching against UConn, I'm doubling Sanogo or Hawkins when he's on the floor. He can shoot as many open 3's as he wants until he proves otherwise. I hope he figures it out, because if he can become a scoring threat, the sky is the limit. I think he has the will and discipline to work on it knowing that's the piece to the puzzle he needs.
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Well that's what Greg McDermott did as he had Ryan Hawkins "guarding" AJax by standing in the center of the paint and clogging drives to the basket and pestering Sanogo with double teams or just a dig. AJax doesn't need to be the scoring threat (I know you didn't say that), but he needs to be enough of one so the opponent pays for employing strategy you stated.
 
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Think it boils down to a NBA franchise's confidence in their skill development staff.. Everything else about AJ is green lights.. Can they fix/enhance his offensive skill set(shooting) or does another year in Storrs fix that/help that at all?

Why can't Ray/Rip/Shabazz spend some time on campus in the off-season with some helpful insights? LOL
 
I'm wondering if AJax could play a Draymond Green type role on a team with multiple scoring threats.
 
UConnSwag11 said:
Yes. He should be getting 8–10 points a game by getting getting to the rim
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Agreed. If he could get to the rim and finish/get to the line consistently his offensive game would be vastly improved and he would probably be a first round pick.

It makes no sense to me why he is so afraid of contact. Clearly he has the frame to play thru it.

Honestly I don’t even know why the staff saw him practicing that floater and every thought that was ok. They should have stopped that immediately and just had him drill contested finishes at the rim.
 
The analysis isn’t wrong. However, I do think he gets shortchanged a lot by being rubber stamped “unskilled” since he is so athletic and can’t shoot. He’s very (uniquely) skilled in certain ways in addition to his unbelievable athleticism that obviously have a huge impact at this level. Translation to the next level is a question but i don’t think its clear that those skills wouldn’t have a serious impact.
 
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His jump shot can be fixed if he starts over and stays in the gym. I’m more concerned with his lack of skill at the rim. Everything is a little push shot floater. It’s like he doesn’t even know how to do a regular layup, let alone anything slightly more complicated. It seems like it must be a mental thing at this point.
 
husky429 said:
He was. He has a little bit better release and footwork, but ultimately the shot is just too broken to shoot a good % consistently. Fixing your shot is a 3 year project at minimum in the NBA... there just isn't enough coaching in college to completely overhaul a shot like he needs.
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This makes sense. The kid is a hard worker and with that coaching he could get it done but he has athleticism that no one can teach.
 
I feel like shooting isn't that big of a deal. When he gets to the NBA he will have time to completely reconstruct his form without having to go to class, etc. Not apples to apples but Brook Lopez made three 3s in his first 8 NBA seasons. He made 702 in his most recent 7 seasons. I think a NBA team can teach Jackson too. He can do plenty of things you can't teach and the draft is a crap shoot anyway. I could see a team with a reputation of developing players and a late first (Boston, Memphis, Milwaukee perhaps) taking a shot at stashing him on the bench for a couple of seasons and seeing if he could figure it out.
 
auror said:
61 attempts is a very small sample for 3pt. That number has very little bearing on his actual shooting skill. (3pt shooting % in NBA becomes sticky at 750 cumulative attempts. That number is not even 10% of the way there.) He started out hot and then went 8/35 (23%) over the last 16 games of the season. The 36% counted for us, but it doesn't count for much when evaluating his actual shooting ability or projectability of his shot.

And to be honest, my confidence in his shot is very low. I do find it miraculous when it goes in. He's not wrong. Love a lot else about his game and seemingly as a person. But the jumper.
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People keep talking about 3pt shooting and bad form but his layups and runners around the basket are pretty horrible looking too. He has lead hands around the basket. Its bizarre how unnatural he is with the basketball when taking any shot yet hes so natural and explosive with everything else. If he even had Newtons offensive game he`d be a top 5 pick right now because hes so gifted. I dont believe for one second that he has been lazy or hasnt worked hard enough on his shot i just dont think he has it in him. Hes going to work as hard as anyone but i think his shot is going to really keep him from having an impact in the nba. The road to the league is littered with super athletes who simply didnt have the skills needed to establish a career. This is one time i would like nothing more than to be wrong.
 
The three point shooting - whatever.

The question I have never understood is how does someone who is 6'6 and a 45" vert not just get a hip by people and explode to the rim and force people to foul him.

We've all played with guys that just have "the knack" of getting to the rim, using their body, understanding angles... and others who don't. For whatever reason, his passing vision and anticipation are not matched by the composure and savvy to create an angle and take it strong to the hoop.

If I'm his coach and he shoots that 13 foot tear drop, I would throw every chair in the gym in frustration. Take another dribble. If they play you, throw the lob. If they don't, DUNK ON THEIR AZ$
 
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