Not trying to go Spackler, so apologize if this gets long.
It's difficult to talk about UConn's prospects in 2014 without the context of the prior coaches, but I'm going to try. Needless to say, but Paul Pasqualoni was an all-time disaster. The damage he and his staff did to the program left us staring out of an abyss by game 4 of the 2013 season. There is literally almost not a single positive thing to say about his 2+ years at the helm.
Bob Diaco seems like the right guy for the job. His positives to date are fairly obvious:
-Great Energy
-Good amount of charisma
-Communicates well with the media
-Put together a solid staff
-As compared to prior seasons, recruits are making verbal commitments earlier
I'd like to expand on one additional area that has struck me - and I think it may be most important in the long run. Diaco has a plan and is hell-bent on executing (wish I could pick another word) it.
Head coach at Connecticut is not an easy job, everyone knows the challenges: Not the most fertile recruiting grounds, conference realignment has been one blow after another, school lacks historical gravitas, smallish off-campus stadium, fan base is accustomed to winning and winning big...
While many held it against Edsall, the thing that allowed him to be successful (and potentially created a ceiling for him to a degree), was that Edsall knew what needed to be done to make the team moderately successful in a relatively short period of time. Generally his teams did well academically and were populated by quality people.
Diaco I believe has that strength, you can see it in the type of players he is recruiting, the measurables aren't coincidences. He believes that if you invest in his 'process', the results will come. Personally I think that is the only way to build successful teams in any sport - decide what the process is that makes you successful, consistently execute and the results will be there in the end if you've defined the process correctly.
Obviously we've seen Diaco have success coaching players up on defense at Notre Dame. So I don't anticipate that he and his staff will struggle to turn raw talent into results on the field. The question about HCBD is can he coach a game on Saturday? There is no way to answer that now, and probably no way to really answer that until October/November 2015.
So what does the 2014 season hold?
The question that I can't answer definitively is - did PP actually stockpile some talent but just coached it so poorly that the results were putrid? My guess is that the answer will prove to be in-between. Surely there are some players here who will immediately improve due to the coaching change, but I worry that the roster may thin quickly and put a ceiling on the number of wins in 2014.
I trusted Diaco to make the call at QB. If he thinks CC is the guy - good enough for me. Casey seems to have some level of intangibles that make him a better player that he may seem on paper or by picking apart film. If he needs to go to Whitmer, I'm fine with that - Chandler has never played behind a non-GDL line - so he may prove to look much better if he needs to play.
The running backs are exciting. I'd guess that Marriner ends up with the bulk of the carries and is a huge upgrade over Lyle.
It's strange to have receiver as a strength, but should be a fun position.
The tight ends don't blow you away, but have a chance to be serviceable.
The offensive line of course is the key, and while I don't see a vintage UConn offensive line here - it has to be better than the past three years which is the most important step they need to take.
Very difficult to not see UConn better on offense.
Defense is a bit more worrisome.
The defensive line as some solid contributors and experience, but maybe lacks big play makers and could become an issue if injuries strike.
The linebackers are similar - some obvious talent, but if they need to dip into the depth could get shaky.
The starters in the secondary should be fine - it's the same story here - if they stay healthy they can be pretty good.
UConn has to be better on specials, they were pedestrian last year. I'm not sold on Puyol, I know little to nothing about the punter and there isn't a track record of success for the return guys. Specials worry me, although it's nice to have a Feagles involved. Improving on coverage and returns could be a huge impact for this team and might get them another win or two if they pull it off.
So on to a win prediction, I don't think about these as binary outcomes, but try to attach a percentage chance to win and develop an average guess.
BYU - 15%
Stony Brook - 95%
Boise State - 35%
@ USF - 40%
Temple - 75%
@ Tulane - 40%
@ East Carolina 15%
UCF - 25%
@ Army 90%
Cincinnati 30%
@ Memphis 55%
SMU 50%
I like when my guess off the top of my head 5-6 wins lines up perfectly with this take of 5.65 wins.
I think the schedule gives them an obvious floor of 4 wins, but limits their upside to 7. I can't see them winning 8 and it seems impossible to only win 3.
It's so much better to follow a team when you don't hate the head coach. Instead of spending time trying to figure out how he didn't get fired all offseason, you can actually look forward to the season and the future.
/Spackler
