Highlevel Thoughts on 2014

[whaler11]

Not trying to go Spackler, so apologize if this gets long.

It's difficult to talk about UConn's prospects in 2014 without the context of the prior coaches, but I'm going to try. Needless to say, but Paul Pasqualoni was an all-time disaster. The damage he and his staff did to the program left us staring out of an abyss by game 4 of the 2013 season. There is literally almost not a single positive thing to say about his 2+ years at the helm.

Bob Diaco seems like the right guy for the job. His positives to date are fairly obvious:
-Great Energy
-Good amount of charisma
-Communicates well with the media
-Put together a solid staff
-As compared to prior seasons, recruits are making verbal commitments earlier

I'd like to expand on one additional area that has struck me - and I think it may be most important in the long run. Diaco has a plan and is hell-bent on executing (wish I could pick another word) it.

Head coach at Connecticut is not an easy job, everyone knows the challenges: Not the most fertile recruiting grounds, conference realignment has been one blow after another, school lacks historical gravitas, smallish off-campus stadium, fan base is accustomed to winning and winning big...

While many held it against Edsall, the thing that allowed him to be successful (and potentially created a ceiling for him to a degree), was that Edsall knew what needed to be done to make the team moderately successful in a relatively short period of time. Generally his teams did well academically and were populated by quality people.

Diaco I believe has that strength, you can see it in the type of players he is recruiting, the measurables aren't coincidences. He believes that if you invest in his 'process', the results will come. Personally I think that is the only way to build successful teams in any sport - decide what the process is that makes you successful, consistently execute and the results will be there in the end if you've defined the process correctly.

Obviously we've seen Diaco have success coaching players up on defense at Notre Dame. So I don't anticipate that he and his staff will struggle to turn raw talent into results on the field. The question about HCBD is can he coach a game on Saturday? There is no way to answer that now, and probably no way to really answer that until October/November 2015.

So what does the 2014 season hold?

The question that I can't answer definitively is - did PP actually stockpile some talent but just coached it so poorly that the results were putrid? My guess is that the answer will prove to be in-between. Surely there are some players here who will immediately improve due to the coaching change, but I worry that the roster may thin quickly and put a ceiling on the number of wins in 2014.

I trusted Diaco to make the call at QB. If he thinks CC is the guy - good enough for me. Casey seems to have some level of intangibles that make him a better player that he may seem on paper or by picking apart film. If he needs to go to Whitmer, I'm fine with that - Chandler has never played behind a non-GDL line - so he may prove to look much better if he needs to play.

The running backs are exciting. I'd guess that Marriner ends up with the bulk of the carries and is a huge upgrade over Lyle.

It's strange to have receiver as a strength, but should be a fun position.

The tight ends don't blow you away, but have a chance to be serviceable.

The offensive line of course is the key, and while I don't see a vintage UConn offensive line here - it has to be better than the past three years which is the most important step they need to take.

Very difficult to not see UConn better on offense.

Defense is a bit more worrisome.

The defensive line as some solid contributors and experience, but maybe lacks big play makers and could become an issue if injuries strike.

The linebackers are similar - some obvious talent, but if they need to dip into the depth could get shaky.

The starters in the secondary should be fine - it's the same story here - if they stay healthy they can be pretty good.

UConn has to be better on specials, they were pedestrian last year. I'm not sold on Puyol, I know little to nothing about the punter and there isn't a track record of success for the return guys. Specials worry me, although it's nice to have a Feagles involved. Improving on coverage and returns could be a huge impact for this team and might get them another win or two if they pull it off.

So on to a win prediction, I don't think about these as binary outcomes, but try to attach a percentage chance to win and develop an average guess.

BYU - 15%
Stony Brook - 95%
Boise State - 35%
@ USF - 40%
Temple - 75%
@ Tulane - 40%
@ East Carolina 15%
UCF - 25%
@ Army 90%
Cincinnati 30%
@ Memphis 55%
SMU 50%

I like when my guess off the top of my head 5-6 wins lines up perfectly with this take of 5.65 wins.

I think the schedule gives them an obvious floor of 4 wins, but limits their upside to 7. I can't see them winning 8 and it seems impossible to only win 3.

It's so much better to follow a team when you don't hate the head coach. Instead of spending time trying to figure out how he didn't get fired all offseason, you can actually look forward to the season and the future.

/Spackler

 

[BoatShow]

I expect our boys to be absolutely frothing at the mouth to get Cincy and UCF in our house after those beatings at their respective places. Type games where you can throw everything out but who wants it more.

 

[jbdphi]

You can look at our schedule in two ways:
- Glass half full: we get the toughest guys at home which gives us the best chance to win
- Glass half empty: we get our weakest teams on the road which means we might lose games we shouldn't

All depends on how strong we think our team will be. My biggest worries are in order:
1) Offensive Line - I appreciate that HCBD is now talking them up but two true freshmen on two deep is worrying - can the starters get push and protect?
2) Defensive pressure on the QB - we're playing quite a few teams with either prolific passing offenses or dual threat QB's - if we can't get pressure on the throwers and contain the dual threats it won't matter how good our secondary is
3) Specials - Puyol has a completely blank slate for me so we'll see, same with Wain but we really need to be better at returns and coverage in general

I'd like to think that Stony Brook and Army are two sure-fire wins but after that, I don't think we can bank anything else before the season starts. I think a few other teams in our conference are in a similar place (i.e. Temple, Memphis, USF, Tulane, SMU) which is why spots #5 through #11 in the conference pre-season is such a tight mess.

In that case, a lot of these games should come down to turnover margin, special teams, big plays and team intangibles and that's where I expect HCBD and staff to shine. Limit the turnovers and big plays and play smart games, we could win 7. I certainly have more hope this year than last which is a good thing.

 

[metsfan2323]

Good write up, however, the Disaster Coach won 5 games with a walk-on QB. Diaco can do a lot better with Cochran's help. We are winning 7-9 games this year.

 

[BoatShow]

Good write up, however, the Disaster Coach won 5 games with a walk-on QB. Diaco can do a lot better with Cochran's help. We are winning 7-9 games this year.

I can appreciate the sentiment here but most of the D on that team will be playing on Sundays this year.

 

[Alum86]

Nice job Whaler. Well researched, thought out and posted. Only disagree in that I think Max gets majority of carries. I think the pundits outside CT are in for a surprise game 1. BYU is in for a dogfight.

 

[specialisthusky]

Disregard word count and this is something I'd expect to read in print. Great post whaler.

There is so much to look forward to this year even while keeping expectations in check. Its going to be fun to be a husky fan again come Friday and that is refreshing.

 

[jdb50]

Good job Whaler. We could do a few things well or a lot of things poorly. We should see a big improvement here. Players knowing what their assignment is and having the belief they can get the job done. The whole reset of player expectations of their own attitude and commitment to team. The idea that no one is comfortable in their position just because they are an upperclassmen. The fact that the players aren't finding the process a grind the way they did under PP/GDL. Let's #HuskyUp and have some fun!

 

[weyuo]

Whaler replace Marriner with Newsome. Unless he gained a step in the off season I can't see Delorenzo being the featured back all season. Keeping my fingers crossed regarding the offensive and defensive lines. Not a good start when your biggest O-lineman probably won't play one of the biggest games of the season..... to start the season. Still think they can eek out enough wins to go bowling. As far as Diaco goes, he might be able to talk a dog off a meat wagon but can he get him to score touchdowns? I'm hoping so.

 

[Kgun7]

Disregard word count and this is something I'd expect to read in print. Great post whaler.

There is so much to look forward to this year even while keeping expectations in check. Its going to be fun to be a husky fan again come Friday and that is refreshing.

Mostly agree ... However, I WOULD NOT expect to read this in print because it is much better than what we usually read in pint!

 

[Dooley]

Two things jump off the page to me in the Bob Diaco transition:

1. UCONN football really hit a stale wall...literally. From slapping on fresh coats of paint on the walls in the Burton to adding/enhancing pre-game rituals and traditions to engaging the student body to the much-improved marketing blitz we've seen this offseason, UCONN football is at least acting like the first-rate program that it inspires to be;
2. Player engagement has improved 1000%. Recruits are fired up to come to UCONN and are all over social media spreading the word. Coach Balis' S&C program has very literally transformed our roster to look and feel like D-1 football players. I really get the feeling that the coaches and players relationships have improved tremendously in a matter of a few short months and that each group would run through a wall for the other. Rise Up. Together.

 

[Dooley]

BYU - 15%
Stony Brook - 95%
Boise State - 35%
@ USF - 40%
Temple - 75%
@ Tulane - 40%
@ East Carolina 15%
UCF - 25%
@ Army 90%
Cincinnati 30%
@ Memphis 55%
SMU 50%

I know that these odds are just objective best guesses, but I'd shift the odds of both the BYU and Boise games up a touch. BYU because of the roster gutting suspensions, home opener of the Diaco era, and their travel to the east coast (although I wish the game was on Sat at Noon!); Boise because I never trust a west coast team kicking off a game at 10am their time (see: previous wish for the BYU kick-off time!). I think the rest are fairly accurate and too far away to grovel over.

I agree with you that our toughest game is @ECU. First, it's a road game and we didn't fare too well on the road last year. Second, ECU is really good. If they're healthy, playing them in their stadium will be incredibly challenging. BYU, Boise, UCF, and Cincinnati are obviously tough games too. But those are home games and I really feel that we're going to pull out a few.

 

[freescooter]

Excellent analysis. Two things that scare me other than offensive line, are the defensive line and the kicking game. based on last year, and that is all we have at this point, I don't see that defensive lineman that the other guys have to worry about, scheme against, who will chase the quarterback and/or consistently stuff the run. We had those guys in 2011 and 2012 which got us to 5 wins. I'm not even worried about injuries. I have some concern that we lack the big stopper even without the depth. We may need to rely on gimmicks to be effective and while that can work, it also leaves you exposed at times. The second thing is the return game. To say we were pedestrian last year is almost literal. We averaged under 20 yards per return on kicks and around 3 on punts. We were at the very bottom of 1A for punt returns and not much better on kickoffs. Again hard to know whether it was scheme or personnel. For all the criticism of McCombs at least he wasn't afraid to catch the football, he held on to it when he did unlike pretty much everyone else we tried back there. We need a huge upgrade there.

 

[rich1122]

It will come down to the line OL and DL. More the OL. Have they made the leap in both conditioning and execution. There are holes inexperience etc everywhere but no different than any other team.

Gus Cruz return huge.

 

[Bootsthemonkey]

Several things killed the PP teams, some of which I think have been fixed, some I hope will be fixed:

I believe to be fixed -

1. Lack of energy after the first quarter (c0nditioning? other factors?)
2. Predictable play calling
3. Game clock management (just a hunch)

I hope to be fixed:

1. Line blocking - the GDL effect
2. Idiotic penalties - Penalties will happen and sometimes are necessary. OL holding is fine if the guy is trying to prevent the QB from having his brains knocked out from his blind side. I'm talking the easily avoidable ones - illegal subs, holding away from the play, too many men, offsides, etc.
3. Special teams - field position. Start drives from the 35-40 vice the 18.
4. Turnovers


Rectify these problem areas and I think the team has the personnel to be very successful. Reducing penalties and turnovers alone would probably have changed the outcome of a few winnable games over the last few years.

 

[tjhusky]

Several things killed the PP teams, some of which I think have been fixed, some I hope will be fixed:

I believe to be fixed -

1. Lack of energy after the first quarter (c0nditioning? other factors?)
2. Predictable play calling
3. Game clock management (just a hunch)

I hope to be fixed:

1. Line blocking - the GDL effect
2. Idiotic penalties - Penalties will happen and sometimes are necessary. OL holding is fine if the guy is trying to prevent the QB from having his brains knocked out from his blind side. I'm talking the easily avoidable ones - illegal subs, holding away from the play, too many men, offsides, etc.
3. Special teams - field position. Start drives from the 35-40 vice the 18.
4. Turnovers


Rectify these problem areas and I think the team has the personnel to be very successful. Reducing penalties and turnovers alone would probably have changed the outcome of a few winnable games over the last few years.

I fully agree. And when we make the inevitable mistake we continue to go out and play hard and execute. Don't hang our heads or try to make it up on a risky play.

My other big expectation is real tackling. Multiple player pursuit with speed to the ball carrier. No broken tackles, not being allowed to drag our D 8 yards while we try to bring the player down. Fighting through blocks to stop the play.

I expect us to have the energy and conditioning to stop runners and receivers in their tracks.

 

[Palatine]

1. Score points

2. Stuff the run.

3. Get after the passer.

 

[whaler11]

Several things killed the PP teams, some of which I think have been fixed, some I hope will be fixed:

I believe to be fixed -

1. Lack of energy after the first quarter (c0nditioning? other factors?)
2. Predictable play calling
3. Game clock management (just a hunch)

I hope to be fixed:

1. Line blocking - the GDL effect
2. Idiotic penalties - Penalties will happen and sometimes are necessary. OL holding is fine if the guy is trying to prevent the QB from having his brains knocked out from his blind side. I'm talking the easily avoidable ones - illegal subs, holding away from the play, too many men, offsides, etc.
3. Special teams - field position. Start drives from the 35-40 vice the 18.
4. Turnovers


Rectify these problem areas and I think the team has the personnel to be very successful. Reducing penalties and turnovers alone would probably have changed the outcome of a few winnable games over the last few years.

You bring up an excellent point that I neglected to mention.

UConn's best teams were RARELY penalized. That what a major reason we didn't discuss much.

If UConn can get back to consistently being one of the teams in the country committing the fewest penalties that would be a huge advantage.

 

[noeynox]

My favorite penalty under P was the delay of game coming out of a time out.

 

[Dooley]

Several things killed the PP teams, some of which I think have been fixed, some I hope will be fixed:

I believe to be fixed -

1. Lack of energy after the first quarter (c0nditioning? other factors?)
2. Predictable play calling
3. Game clock management (just a hunch)

I hope to be fixed:

1. Line blocking - the GDL effect
2. Idiotic penalties - Penalties will happen and sometimes are necessary. OL holding is fine if the guy is trying to prevent the QB from having his brains knocked out from his blind side. I'm talking the easily avoidable ones - illegal subs, holding away from the play, too many men, offsides, etc.
3. Special teams - field position. Start drives from the 35-40 vice the 18.
4. Turnovers


Rectify these problem areas and I think the team has the personnel to be very successful. Reducing penalties and turnovers alone would probably have changed the outcome of a few winnable games over the last few years.

Agreed. I have high hopes for the OL after seeing the vast improvement the instant GDL was fired. I also have high hopes for cutting back on the stupid penalties. I think our new staff is detail oriented and wouldn't stand for being slapped with an additional 5 yards after a TV timeout.

 

[SubbaBub]

Not trying to go Spackler, so apologize if this gets long.

BYU - 15%
Stony Brook - 95%
Boise State - 35%
@ USF - 40%
Temple - 75%
@ Tulane - 40%
@ East Carolina 15%
UCF - 25%
@ Army 90%
Cincinnati 30%
@ Memphis 55%
SMU 50%

/Spackler

You're credentials as a skeptic, are well documented. No need to prove yourself.

35%
99%
45%
40%
80%
85%
33%
33%
99%
40%
85%
65%

 

[RedStickHusky]

Mad props to Whaler for driving a thread about actual football. I think he presents a fair baseline. Here's to hoping HCBD raises the bar.

 

[Oregon Owl]

Not trying to go Spackler, so apologize if this gets long.

It's difficult to talk about UConn's prospects in 2014 without the context of the prior coaches, but I'm going to try. Needless to say, but Paul Pasqualoni was an all-time disaster. The damage he and his staff did to the program left us staring out of an abyss by game 4 of the 2013 season. There is literally almost not a single positive thing to say about his 2+ years at the helm.

Bob Diaco seems like the right guy for the job. His positives to date are fairly obvious:
-Great Energy
-Good amount of charisma
-Communicates well with the media
-Put together a solid staff
-As compared to prior seasons, recruits are making verbal commitments earlier

I'd like to expand on one additional area that has struck me - and I think it may be most important in the long run. Diaco has a plan and is hell-bent on executing (wish I could pick another word) it.

Head coach at Connecticut is not an easy job, everyone knows the challenges: Not the most fertile recruiting grounds, conference realignment has been one blow after another, school lacks historical gravitas, smallish off-campus stadium, fan base is accustomed to winning and winning big...

While many held it against Edsall, the thing that allowed him to be successful (and potentially created a ceiling for him to a degree), was that Edsall knew what needed to be done to make the team moderately successful in a relatively short period of time. Generally his teams did well academically and were populated by quality people.

Diaco I believe has that strength, you can see it in the type of players he is recruiting, the measurables aren't coincidences. He believes that if you invest in his 'process', the results will come. Personally I think that is the only way to build successful teams in any sport - decide what the process is that makes you successful, consistently execute and the results will be there in the end if you've defined the process correctly.

Obviously we've seen Diaco have success coaching players up on defense at Notre Dame. So I don't anticipate that he and his staff will struggle to turn raw talent into results on the field. The question about HCBD is can he coach a game on Saturday? There is no way to answer that now, and probably no way to really answer that until October/November 2015.

So what does the 2014 season hold?

The question that I can't answer definitively is - did PP actually stockpile some talent but just coached it so poorly that the results were putrid? My guess is that the answer will prove to be in-between. Surely there are some players here who will immediately improve due to the coaching change, but I worry that the roster may thin quickly and put a ceiling on the number of wins in 2014.

I trusted Diaco to make the call at QB. If he thinks CC is the guy - good enough for me. Casey seems to have some level of intangibles that make him a better player that he may seem on paper or by picking apart film. If he needs to go to Whitmer, I'm fine with that - Chandler has never played behind a non-GDL line - so he may prove to look much better if he needs to play.

The running backs are exciting. I'd guess that Marriner ends up with the bulk of the carries and is a huge upgrade over Lyle.

It's strange to have receiver as a strength, but should be a fun position.

The tight ends don't blow you away, but have a chance to be serviceable.

The offensive line of course is the key, and while I don't see a vintage UConn offensive line here - it has to be better than the past three years which is the most important step they need to take.

Very difficult to not see UConn better on offense.

Defense is a bit more worrisome.

The defensive line as some solid contributors and experience, but maybe lacks big play makers and could become an issue if injuries strike.

The linebackers are similar - some obvious talent, but if they need to dip into the depth could get shaky.

The starters in the secondary should be fine - it's the same story here - if they stay healthy they can be pretty good.

UConn has to be better on specials, they were pedestrian last year. I'm not sold on Puyol, I know little to nothing about the punter and there isn't a track record of success for the return guys. Specials worry me, although it's nice to have a Feagles involved. Improving on coverage and returns could be a huge impact for this team and might get them another win or two if they pull it off.

So on to a win prediction, I don't think about these as binary outcomes, but try to attach a percentage chance to win and develop an average guess.

BYU - 15%
Stony Brook - 95%
Boise State - 35%
@ USF - 40%
Temple - 75%
@ Tulane - 40%
@ East Carolina 15%
UCF - 25%
@ Army 90%
Cincinnati 30%
@ Memphis 55%
SMU 50%

I like when my guess off the top of my head 5-6 wins lines up perfectly with this take of 5.65 wins.

I think the schedule gives them an obvious floor of 4 wins, but limits their upside to 7. I can't see them winning 8 and it seems impossible to only win 3.

It's so much better to follow a team when you don't hate the head coach. Instead of spending time trying to figure out how he didn't get fired all offseason, you can actually look forward to the season and the future.

/Spackler

I think you are under-estimating Temple. Maybe 55% UCONN because of home field advantage, but you'll see a better D from Temple this year, and better second half coaching. Should be a good game, though.

 

[rich1122]

One last thing. I truly miss Weist and he proved what could be done in 5 or 6 short weeks as far as energy, performance, etc. There is talent under there. Give PP credit he was able to get some recruits. Diaco and staff have had the same group for 8 months. Go Huskies.

 

[whaler11]

You're credentials as a skeptic, are well documented. No need to prove yourself.

35%
99%
45%
40%
80%
85%
33%
33%
99%
40%
85%
65%

Ok that's 7.5 wins on a team with an over/under win total of 3.5 in places where you can wager on that sort of thing.

You might be right but 7.5 wins on average for this team is aggressive.

Don't think that's being a 'skeptic'.