Highest Possible Seed in NCAA Tourney?

[maineuconnfan]

I would have to agree....I am definitely being optimistic that with such a finish, the buzz around UCONN could overshadow that AAC handicap.

We will probably deserve to be a three seed if we win out, including the AAC tourney title. However, in its only season playing in the AAC, Louisville got a four seed coming off winning the national championship the season before, so a three seed for any team in this conference is not going to happen, no matter how lousy the overall field may be. Even if SMU were eligible they would not have garnered a three seed.

I think a lot of folks predicted Louisville deserved a two seed that year, which was about right, so the mere fact they played in the AAC dragged them down two spots. Therefore, assuming we win out, I think you're correct that we would be deserving of a three seed, which probably means five is about as high as we can expect to get, two notches below what we probably would deserve. Anything short of winning out, even one more loss, puts us at six or below. Call it the AAC crap conference factor.

 

[Greathusky]

Perhaps I am in the minority but I don't give a flying crap what the seed is as long as we get there.

 

[caw]

I'm with @Rico444 : It's unlikely, but if they win out (and in doing so take both regular season and AAC tournament championship), they end up something like:

27-7 (14-4)*
RPI: ~19
vs. RPI 25: 3-1
vs RPI 50: 8-4^
vs. RPI 100: 12-7
R/N: 12-5

That looks like a Top 20 team to me, and close to a 4 seed (considering Louisville and SMU would still, presumably, have higher RPIs).

That's assuming a lot, and it's unlikely they win out. But if they did they'd have all the metrics in their favor for a good seed.

_________________________________
* Assumes USF, Tulsa, and Cincy for AAC tounament
^ Assumes Tulsa, Michigan, Cincy, and Gonzaga end Top 50

If UConn wins out, which probably isn't likely, that would put UConn at 21-4 (10-1) with Brimah. Versus 6-3 without Brimah. Committee has taken injuries into account in previous years and that looks like a significant difference to me.

 

[August_West]

If UConn wins out, which probably isn't likely, that would put UConn at 21-4 (10-1) with Brimah. Versus 6-3 without Brimah. Committee has taken injuries into account in previous years and that looks like a significant difference to me.

No, that is a fallacy. Name me one instance ever where a team has gotten a better seed than their resume due to an injury. Committee members may pay lip service to it from time to time but it has never happened. Ever. I can make times teams were seeded lower than resume because of injuries though.

 

[tzznandrew]

Perhaps I am in the minority but I don't give a flying crap what the seed is as long as we get there.

If we get in, I want to win, or get as far as possible before losing. Seed does matter in that. Therefore I care about seeds.

 

[UChusky916]

This board is bipolar.

After every loss people here trash the team and say we need to win X amount of games to even be ON the bubble.

After every win people want to know our highest seed if we win out.

 

[tzznandrew]

This board is bipolar.

After every loss people here trash the team and say we need to win X amount of games to even be ON the bubble.

After every win people want to know our highest seed if we win out.

Well, it's generally different people. Those who freak out after a loss dominate the site then, and those more stoic after a win. There's certainly some overlap, but some names appear only after a loss, and some disappear for a time after a loss (most times...)

 

[tzznandrew]

Syracuse will be an interesting case. Their resume is marginal, unless you pretend the games without Boeheim didn't happen. Not a player, but same thing.

 

[caw]

No, that is a fallacy. Name me one instance ever where a team has gotten a better seed than their resume due to an injury. Committee members may pay lip service to it from time to time but it has never happened. Ever. I can make times teams were seeded lower than resume because of injuries though.

Fine I'll do your work for you. MSU should have been a 5 seed in 2014 and got a 4 seed likely due to injuries.

 

[RedStickHusky]

If we get in, I want to win, or get as far as possible before losing. Seed does matter in that. Therefore I care about seeds.

Staying off the 8/9 line is probably important. Other than that, I worry more about pairings than seeds. Somehow I think I'd be okay with being a 7 seed in Nova's bracket

 

[DarthGrumpy]

If UConn wins 5 of the lat 6 and wins the ACC, UConn should be a 5 seed; but, I rather be a 6 seed. 5 seeds have way too much history losing their first round game to a 12 seed. I also don't want UConn to be an 8/9 seed as there is a 75% change that winner of such a match will have a nightmare of a second round game playing a #1 seed in front of a very biased home crowd - UNC in Raleigh, Kansas in Kansas City, and Oklahoma in Oklahoma City (could be 100% if Iowa also is a #1 seed as they would likely be in Des Moines for their first two games).

 

[auror]

In part it depends on what other teams do. I think anything above 6 is unlikely. I'd be happy if we can move off of our current 8-9 line. Hell, I want to make sure we get in. Got to beat Cinci tomorrow.

The 11 seed has borne out to be mathematically preferable to the 8, 9, and 10 seeds due to 2nd round opponents and future path. 8-9 is death zone.

 

[shizzle787]

Probably a 5 seed (4 if we are very lucky) if we win out (we'd be 27-7 with NO bad losses).

 

[RedStickHusky]

8-9 is death zone.

You mean we'd be doomed?

 

[auror]

I'm with @Rico444 : It's unlikely, but if they win out (and in doing so take both regular season and AAC tournament championship), they end up something like:

27-7 (14-4)*
RPI: ~19
vs. RPI 25: 3-1
vs RPI 50: 8-4^
vs. RPI 100: 12-7
R/N: 12-5

That looks like a Top 20 team to me, and close to a 4 seed (considering Louisville and SMU would still, presumably, have higher RPIs).

That's assuming a lot, and it's unlikely they win out. But if they did they'd have all the metrics in their favor for a good seed.

_________________________________
* Assumes USF, Tulsa, and Cincy for AAC tounament
^ Assumes Tulsa, Michigan, Cincy, and Gonzaga end Top 50

For the record, assuming Cincy finishes top 50 RPI is not a given since they're 60 right now and you're assuming we are beating them two more times... More likely top 50 record in that scenario is 6-3.

Team X
29-5 (15-3)
RPI: 19
vs. RPI 25: 4-3
vs. RPI 50: 5-5
vs. RPI 100: 9-5
R/N: 13-3
Last 12: 11-2

Any guesses?

 

[gtcam]

For the record, assuming Cincy finishes top 50 RPI is not a given since they're 60 right now and you're assuming we are beating them two more times... More likely top 50 record in that scenario is 6-3.

Team X
29-5 (15-3)
RPI: 19
vs. RPI 25: 4-3
vs. RPI 50: 5-5
vs. RPI 100: 9-5
R/N: 13-3
Last 12: 11-2

Any guesses?

Yeah if the team is 11-2 in last 12 games then there isn't a math wiz behind these numbers

 

[auror]

Yeah if the team is 11-2 in last 12 games then there isn't a math wiz behind these numbers

Typing and math aren't the same. Plus those are actual numbers of a team from the past, so no math there either...