Highest Possible Seed in NCAA Tourney?

[GetTheFacts]

Huge W last night obviously. Here's our tourney resume as it stands right now:

RPI: 35
BPI: 23
KenPom: 24
No losses outside of RPI Top 70.

For hypothetical purposes, say we win five out of our last six games in the regular season (L @SMU) and win the conference tournament. What seed could we end up with in the NCAA Tourney? I think we could honestly go as high as 5. The fact that we don't have any bad losses on our resume in a weak-bubble year says a lot.

 

[Towney007]

Advanced metrics seem to like us a lot. Depends on how much the committee puts stock in those. I could literally see us as low as a #10 seed and as high as #5.... So i kind of have no idea, really. Our resume's oddly balanced. Not a bunch of top-25 wins but really no losses out of the Top 70. So we def. are in so far. I think we beat Cincy and you can lock it up.

 

[JimHurley]

Highest 6-7

 

[Bryan Lord]

Highest is a 6 and i think we get a 7 which is cool with me.

 

[Rico444]

Unlikely, but if we win out I think we'd end up as a 4-seed, no lower than 5.

 

[Bryan Lord]

We are very high end mediocre right now.

 

[Excalibur]

If we win out and win the conference tournament, we could be a 5. Realistically, we're looking at 7-9 barring a meltdown in the last few games.

 

[Towney007]

That I'd kind of agree with this guy ^^^

We win out, we PROBABLY win the regular season title and the conference tournament... yeah, we'd be a #5. Realistically probably a #7-#8.

 

[HuskyHawk]

In part it depends on what other teams do. I think anything above 6 is unlikely. I'd be happy if we can move off of our current 8-9 line. Hell, I want to make sure we get in. Got to beat Cinci tomorrow.

 

[Kevin Caliendo]

if they win out maybe a 6 seed. They will have finished the season with one win over a top 25 team (unless Texas gets some big wins rest of the way). the committee has never given the AAC any benefit of the doubt

 

[DALTX]

Advanced metrics seem to like us a lot. Depends on how much the committee puts stock in those. I could literally see us as low as a #10 seed and as high as #5.... So i kind of have no idea, really. Our resume's oddly balanced. Not a bunch of top-25 wins but really no losses out of the Top 70. So we def. are in so far. I think we beat Cincy and you can lock it up.

Nothing is locked up until we also beat Houston, USF, and UCF.

 

[mdkhusky]

if we beat USF well be a 1 seed

 

[Balker]

Agree with many others... highest possible see is obtained by winning out the rest of the schedule and the AAC tournament. If we do that, I could maybe see a 4 seed depending on what happens with other teams. But it would probably be a 5 even in a best case scenario, because the committee hates the American.

 

[Jerry1714]

if they win out maybe a 6 seed. They will have finished the season with one win over a top 25 team (unless Texas gets some big wins rest of the way). the committee has never given the AAC any benefit of the doubt

If they win out they are guaranteed 2 wins over top 25 teams, SMU X2, it would be surprising if Texas does not finish with a Top 25 RPI also.

 

[tzznandrew]

If they win out they are guaranteed 2 wins over top 25 teams, SMU X2, it would be surprising if Texas does not finish with a Top 25 RPI also.

I'm with @Rico444 : It's unlikely, but if they win out (and in doing so take both regular season and AAC tournament championship), they end up something like:

27-7 (14-4)*
RPI: ~19
vs. RPI 25: 3-1
vs RPI 50: 8-4^
vs. RPI 100: 12-7
R/N: 12-5

That looks like a Top 20 team to me, and close to a 4 seed (considering Louisville and SMU would still, presumably, have higher RPIs).

That's assuming a lot, and it's unlikely they win out. But if they did they'd have all the metrics in their favor for a good seed.

_________________________________
* Assumes USF, Tulsa, and Cincy for AAC tounament
^ Assumes Tulsa, Michigan, Cincy, and Gonzaga end Top 50

 

[August_West]

I'm with @Rico444 : It's unlikely, but if they win out (and in doing so take both regular season and AAC tournament championship), they end up something like:

27-7 (14-4)*
RPI: ~19
vs. RPI 25: 3-1
vs RPI 50: 8-4^
vs. RPI 100: 12-7
R/N: 12-5

That looks like a Top 20 team to me, and close to a 4 seed (considering Louisville and SMU would still, presumably, have higher RPIs).

That's assuming a lot, and it's unlikely they win out. But if they did they'd have all the metrics in their favor for a good seed.

_________________________________
* Assumes USF, Tulsa, and Cincy for AAC tounament
^ Assumes Tulsa, Michigan, Cincy, and Gonzaga end Top 50

So you are saying a 6-7. After conference affiliation adjustment

 

[maineuconnfan]

Highest seed possibility, really depends on others but I would say winning out and winning the tourney actually could get us as high as a 3 seed, you may disagree, but I think with no bad losses and a strong out of conference schedule at 27-7, it could garner a higher seed, especially if we go on a run, people would be on the UCONN bandwagon again. I know the committee doe not weigh the later games higher than early season, but finishing the season 15-2 would be a pretty strong sign that they are in that top 3 seed status, even being in the American. I also only think they get a 3 seed if they somehow over take Temple as the number 1 seed too. Winning a the conference and title along with 27 wins, with a strong RPI and OC schedule is solid

Lowest seed possible is NIT, which means we are not a lock....I think we go 3-2 and even lose first game in the conference we are a last four in scenario.

What will happen...no clue

 

[businesslawyer]

I'm with @Rico444 : It's unlikely, but if they win out (and in doing so take both regular season and AAC tournament championship), they end up something like:

27-7 (14-4)*
RPI: ~19
vs. RPI 25: 3-1
vs RPI 50: 8-4^
vs. RPI 100: 12-7
R/N: 12-5

That looks like a Top 20 team to me, and close to a 4 seed (considering Louisville and SMU would still, presumably, have higher RPIs).

That's assuming a lot, and it's unlikely they win out. But if they did they'd have all the metrics in their favor for a good seed.

_________________________________
* Assumes USF, Tulsa, and Cincy for AAC tounament
^ Assumes Tulsa, Michigan, Cincy, and Gonzaga end Top 50

This is the correct answer. The highest possible seed is probably a 4. That's not saying we will win out or get a 4, but that is absolutely still possible.

 

[Tenspro2002]

Best possible: 5 seed [win out]
Realistic good: 7 seed [4-1 down the stretch, AACT finals loss to Cincy]
Realistic bad: 10 seed [3-2 down the stretch, AACT semis loss to Tulsa/Temple]
Worst possible: NIT [2-3 down the stretch (no, I don't think it's possible to lose to more than 1 of Houston/UCF/USF), AACT quarters loss to Memphis]

Getting off the 8/9 seed line is critical. There is a big difference this year between likely #1 seeds and likely #2 seeds. A team like Xavier doesn't scare me nearly as much as a team like Oklahoma. Also note that Oklahoma, Iowa, and UNC are likely to get home games in the first two rounds.

 

[UConnNick]

Highest seed possibility, really depends on others but I would say winning out and winning the tourney actually could get us as high as a 3 seed, you may disagree, but I think with no bad losses and a strong out of conference schedule at 27-7, it could garner a higher seed, especially if we go on a run, people would be on the UCONN bandwagon again. I know the committee doe not weigh the later games higher than early season, but finishing the season 15-2 would be a pretty strong sign that they are in that top 3 seed status, even being in the American. I also only think they get a 3 seed if they somehow over take Temple as the number 1 seed too. Winning a the conference and title along with 27 wins, with a strong RPI and OC schedule is solid

Lowest seed possible is NIT, which means we are not a lock....I think we go 3-2 and even lose first game in the conference we are a last four in scenario.

What will happen...no clue

We will probably deserve to be a three seed if we win out, including the AAC tourney title. However, in its only season playing in the AAC, Louisville got a four seed coming off winning the national championship the season before, so a three seed for any team in this conference is not going to happen, no matter how lousy the overall field may be. Even if SMU were eligible they would not have garnered a three seed.

I think a lot of folks predicted Louisville deserved a two seed that year, which was about right, so the mere fact they played in the AAC dragged them down two spots. Therefore, assuming we win out, I think you're correct that we would be deserving of a three seed, which probably means five is about as high as we can expect to get, two notches below what we probably would deserve. Anything short of winning out, even one more loss, puts us at six or below. Call it the AAC crap conference factor.

 

[BoatShow]

If we win out our resume will be very similar to 2014 when we were a 7

 

[Towney007]

Well - I just want to be IN the tournament, but I have a hard time seeing us any lower than 6 if we win the tournament and the reg. season championship

 

[SubbaBub]

New NCAA math.

If we run the table, 4 + 2 = 6 seed.
Lose only to SMU, 5 + 2 = 7 seed.
Lose to SMU and the AAC final, 7 + 2 = 9 seed.
Lose the above two plus one more, 10 seed.

 

[tzznandrew]

If we win out our resume will be very similar to 2014 when we were a 7

Well, that year we went in with a final regular season blowout loss to Lousiville and we weren't regular season champs.

And Louisville smoked us in the AAC title game too, so we weren't tournament champs.

Also, that team had the horrific Houston loss, so there was that weighing on them. If this team wins out there's nothing quite like that.

It would be similar, but our body of work this year would be better.

 

[lange10]

If we win out our resume will be very similar to 2014 when we were a 7

Eh, I somewhat agree. Through 26 games in 2o14 we were 21-5. Over the next 8 games we went 5-3, including the drubbing Louisville gave us. And if I remember correctly we lost the AACT final by 10 but it never felt nearly that close. In a year with so much parity - if we won out (we won't so this is useless lol), including the AACT that would be 10 wins in a row and 13 of 14 with Brimah back in the fold. I think finishing that hot, the committee has to consider Brimah's absence and we're high on the 5 seed line, possibly 4.