Guess how many 3s New Mexico State make today?

[tentoes4rings]

We also let them shoot 11-11 from the charity stripe. Clearly bad free throw defense. Credit Arkansas tonight for holding NM St to 6-10 from the line.

Well, you realize the 11-11 was all Teddy Allen, right?

 

[jrazz12]

Did every report expect his teammates to shoot 7-11 from 3? This is a massive part to this puzzle that many are refusing to acknowledge. Had they short they’re percentage we still win even if Allen dropped 50.

This stat actually hurts your argument though, that's the point being made about Arkansas plan. The denominator is the key, we didn't let them shoot enough. Eventually they would revert to the mean, which is what happened tonight. The flaw in the plan or the unexplainable anomaly wasn't that the scrubs shot 7/10, it was not letting them take 10 more shots instead of Allen (cutting out 6 of his automatic free throws too), and let guys who've never shot that well in their lives try to maintain that pace.

And if they hit 15/20 you tip your cap and go home. Instead, they made 4 of their next 20 and we're missing out on a golden chance to knock out Gonzaga next weekend.

 

[KingAG]

This stat actually hurts your argument though, that's the point being made about Arkansas plan. The denominator is the key, we didn't let them shoot enough. Eventually they would revert to the mean, which is what happened tonight. The flaw in the plan or the unexplainable anomaly wasn't that the scrubs shot 7/10, it was not letting them take 10 more shots instead of Allen (cutting out 6 of his automatic free throws), and let guys who've never shot that well in their lives try to maintain that pace.

And if they hit 15/20 you tip your cap and go home. Instead, they made 4 of their next 20 and we're missing out on a golden chance to knock out Gonzaga next weekend.

I mean that’s a chance you’re taking. They regressed to the mean a entire 2 days later, and never shot as well tonight at any point in the game as they shot against us. You don’t know one way or another how it’d turn out. They may have they may not have. But to your point maybe it was worth a try, letting them shoot more. I guess we’ll just never know.

 

[storrsroars]

Well, you realize the 11-11 was all Teddy Allen, right?

It was 13-13.

Anyway, if this was us vs NMST last night without the context of Thursday, most of y'all would be screaming Hurley sucks because we didn't beat them by 20 instead of just 5.

 

[Hans Sprungfeld]

I don't know why .... [so many] who post here can’t grasp the [outcome] l

Harsh reality, inconceivable nightmare, or eternal mystery, UConn losing in the first Round is a bitter pill to swallow.

"Acceptance" doesn't mean that I approve of or like what happened, just that I accept as fact that it did happen.

I dislike the outcone, and I wanted both teams to lose in most of the Saturday games I saw...many of which made for great watching.

 

[djct1999]

Then maybe you should hit the urinal djct. I mean seriously if you’re not watching this crapfest thinking our Huskies should have been there with a chance to get to the 2nd weekend then I just don’t know. Tough to watch and not wonder why we shouldn’t be one of the last 16.

Your subtle use of urinal there was fantastic. But yes, I was referring to another post and speaking generally. I agree, it was tough to watch. I agree, we should be the last 16. Most metrics from that game suggests the result was a fluke. The degree of difficulty on some of Allen’s shots has been understated. That’s the good and in this case bad in sports. Well why didn’t Hurley double team? The same reason why Boehein always plays zone. It’s our identity and surely Tyrese or Ajax with help side d should have been able to stop him. Even then, that’s not why we lost. New Mexico State didn’t beat us. We beat ourselves. Even as bad as we played, we still could have won the game. But what happened? Sanago had a totally bonehead foul for 3 late and Cole forced the ball in an equally bonehead spot to turn it over. That isn’t on Hurley. Our boys, for whatever reason, didn’t execute. We beat that team 9 out of 10 times. Unfortunately. We played the loss first. It happens. Be pissed. Criticize the coach and team. But most of these takes on this forum have been as bad as sanago’s foul.

 

[KingAG]

Your subtle use of urinal there was fantastic. But yes, I was referring to another post and speaking generally. I agree, it was tough to watch. I agree, we should be the last 16. Most metrics from that game suggests the result was a fluke. The degree of difficulty on some of Allen’s shots has been understated. That’s the good and in this case bad in sports. Well why didn’t Hurley double team? The same reason why Boehein always plays zone. It’s our identity and surely Tyrese or Ajax with help side d should have been able to stop him. Even then, that’s not why we lost. New Mexico State didn’t beat us. We beat ourselves. Even as bad as we played, we still could have won the game. But what happened? Sanago had a totally bonehead foul for 3 late and Cole forced the ball in an equally bonehead spot to turn it over. That isn’t on Hurley. Our boys, for whatever reason, didn’t execute. We beat that team 9 out of 10 times. Unfortunately. We played the loss first. It happens. Be pissed. Criticize the coach and team. But most of these takes on this forum have been as bad as sanago’s foul.

This a what we call a balanced take folks

 

[jibsey]

Your subtle use of urinal there was fantastic. But yes, I was referring to another post and speaking generally. I agree, it was tough to watch. I agree, we should be the last 16. Most metrics from that game suggests the result was a fluke. The degree of difficulty on some of Allen’s shots has been understated. That’s the good and in this case bad in sports. Well why didn’t Hurley double team? The same reason why Boehein always plays zone. It’s our identity and surely Tyrese or Ajax with help side d should have been able to stop him. Even then, that’s not why we lost. New Mexico State didn’t beat us. We beat ourselves. Even as bad as we played, we still could have won the game. But what happened? Sanago had a totally bonehead foul for 3 late and Cole forced the ball in an equally bonehead spot to turn it over. That isn’t on Hurley. Our boys, for whatever reason, didn’t execute. We beat that team 9 out of 10 times. Unfortunately. We played the loss first. It happens. Be pissed. Criticize the coach and team. But most of these takes on this forum have been as bad as sanago’s foul.

Hurley did double team him and try to deny him the ball. I saw it all night but he got the ball, jumped up and made Kemba fadeaways. We all saw it. How does Hurley stop that? Can’t, but…. If we had a guard who did the same even to a lesser degree we win that game.

 

[Tenspro2002]

And, in contrast to our game where NM State outperformed their "quality of shot" by 13 points, last night they underperformed it by 11 (Arkansas also underperformed, by 17).

In our game by QoS they should have scored 57, instead scored 70. Last night, they should have scored 59 and instead scored 48. Literally a 24-point swing.

There are a lot of things we should have done to win our game in spite of NM State having an uncharacteristically lucky shooting night, but a big factor in the game was them having an uncharacteristically lucky shooting night.

 

[Stinger92860]

I don’t know why all the D1 basketball coaches (ie; experts from their couch) who post here can’t grasp this. We ran into a buzzsaw.. should we have still won; probably.. but it’s not as simple as many make it seem

We run into a lot of buzzsaws.

 

[KingAG]

We run into a lot of buzzsaws.

This just isn’t accurate

 

[polycom]

The way we justify bad performances is incredible. A good game plan is you let teddy’s teammates beat us if they do. You shake hands and you’d say good game. Instead we let teddy score 37 and his teammates go off and we say we’ll we just got unlucky. No they played better because they did what they wanted to do they limited shots from bad shooters and made sure their best shooter took the most shots.

Eventually stats regress to the mean… if you look at Teddys stats outside of free throws his fg% was around his mean for our game. So you ask why did we let him shoot so much, if his teammates were shooting well above their mean.

But sure we just got “unlucky” little to worry about.

 

[mauconnfan]

This just isn’t accurate

Ok I agree they no doubt made a few more than they should have and it happens. But admittedly the pattern once again is consistently in the game with time waning and the other team makes plays to win we don’t. We lose many more close ones than we win period, terrible pattern for the coach.

I’m good with him being our coach as long as he begins to admit he needs to get better along with the talent. No more whining about where he brought the program from it’s the sign of a arrogant guy who believes he’s doing everything fine and the players just aren’t good enough. We aren’t back we are only in the Big East but back is winning first round games against teams you are better than or as good as. Next year will tell us a ton, whether he gets in the portal or not.

For now, I’m on hold!

 

[auror]

This just isn’t accurate

Yeah people keep saying it like we didn't go 23-10 with 5 of our losses coming to the three teams in our league who won a game in March, 2 others of our losses coming away from home missing at least 1 starter, and the other 3 games being away from home to tournament/bubble teams.

Only three times did teams really have crazy shooting days. Seton Hall (but we did too so still went to OT on the road), @Nova, and @NMSU. Again, all tournament teams.

 

[UCTitleTown]

Your subtle use of urinal there was fantastic. But yes, I was referring to another post and speaking generally. I agree, it was tough to watch. I agree, we should be the last 16. Most metrics from that game suggests the result was a fluke. The degree of difficulty on some of Allen’s shots has been understated. That’s the good and in this case bad in sports. Well why didn’t Hurley double team? The same reason why Boehein always plays zone. It’s our identity and surely Tyrese or Ajax with help side d should have been able to stop him. Even then, that’s not why we lost. New Mexico State didn’t beat us. We beat ourselves. Even as bad as we played, we still could have won the game. But what happened? Sanago had a totally bonehead foul for 3 late and Cole forced the ball in an equally bonehead spot to turn it over. That isn’t on Hurley. Our boys, for whatever reason, didn’t execute. We beat that team 9 out of 10 times. Unfortunately. We played the loss first. It happens. Be pissed. Criticize the coach and team. But most of these takes on this forum have been as bad as sanago’s foul.

I think we beat New Mexico State 6 out of 10. No way 9 out of 10.

 

[jrazz12]

And, in contrast to our game where NM State outperformed their "quality of shot" by 13 points, last night they underperformed it by 11 (Arkansas also underperformed, by 17).

In our game by QoS they should have scored 57, instead scored 70. Last night, they should have scored 59 and instead scored 48. Literally a 24-point swing.

There are a lot of things we should have done to win our game in spite of NM State having an uncharacteristically lucky shooting night, but a big factor in the game was them having an uncharacteristically lucky shooting night.

This is the source making the rounds now? The one that says Providence's 28 point win should have been a loss. Yeah...no

 

[AdamaNation]

Doubling TE as a defensive strategy isn’t exactly an innovative defense. It’s more of a common sense defense. Dan Hurley’s failure to do just that was owed to stubbornness, rather than a lack of coaching IQ, at least that’s my optimistic take on things. Hopefully, after enough failures, he may see the light and become more flexible in his thinking.

Sadly we double teamed Gillespie a bit and he just found his open guys. Different type of player vs Allen.

 

[homunculus]

I don’t know why all the D1 basketball coaches (ie; experts from their couch) who post here can’t grasp this. We ran into a buzzsaw.. should we have still won; probably.. but it’s not as simple as many make it seem

Because people back-fill their “analysis” based on the outcome. If one or two shots or calls go differently in our game, there’s a really good chance we’re preparing to play Gonzaga (with the way Arkansas looked last night) and the tone here looks very different today.

Allen was forced to take bad shots - and they were often ridiculously bad - because of our defense. He simply made them. He also started the game 0-6 against the same defense. Also Jackson literally did not so much as touch Allen on either foul called on him late in the game, which were killers.

 

[HooperScooper]

I think we beat New Mexico State 6 out of 10. No way 9 out of 10.

The ESPN predictor had UConn winning at about 80% chance. So that would say 8 out of 10 times.

 

[Improviser]

McCants is a baller. Love that guy.

He had some post moves, is physical, and grabbed like 14 rebounds.

If Springs or Akok chose not to return, I wouldn't mind a player like him joining us.

He is a fifth year senior, but maybe somebody else comparable to him would work well.

 

[Improviser]

Who’s Nate Musselman?

Maybe Eric's cousin, uncle, little brother, or Eric Oats, the coach at Alabama.

 

[UConnSwag11]

A 32% 3-point shooting team goes 11-17 one night (including 7-10 for the supporting cast) and then 6-26 the next.

And you could argue the looks they had tonight were better than the ones they had against us.

Twilight Zone stuff, truly. An absolute fluke performance.

It’s not a fluke when we have these types of threads constantly

 

[Improviser]

An interesting thread would be the percentage of games against opponents (who qualified for a post season tournament), where we shut down the other team's best scorer and won, vs. the games where an opponent's player had a career game, and where we lost.

 

[auror]

This is the source making the rounds now? The one that says Providence's 28 point win should have been a loss. Yeah...no

It's not saying it should have been a loss. The shots are what they are. The teams executed as they did. It's saying that it often would have been a loss with average execution.

Richmond shot 1/22 from 3.

1 for 22.

They're not the best shooting team, but 2 guys that are 37% shooters went 1/12.

Providence, on the other hand, shot 12/22. On the same number of shots, they made 11 extra 3-pointes. Among them, Al Durham went 3/4. Al Durham famously shot 19% from 3 in conference play.

Then Richmond went 8/21 from the FT line. Great FT defense by Providence, truly. An 80% shooter went 2/6. A couple worse shooters just didn't make any (0/6). So Richmond didn't deserve to win. But they very well could have if they had made the same decisions but executed better.