Guards vs. Posts

[bballnut90]

Not sure this has been discussed at length, but I was looking at who are strong MVP candidates after some massive showings by Cambage (53 points), Parker (34 and almost a triple double), and Griner (36 points), and I realized the women's game has been dominated by forwards and centers without many standout guards over the last 20 years. In fact, the only MVP who has been a guard since Cynthia Cooper is DT in 2009. This year, the big candidates once again appear to be forwards and centers who aren't primary ball handlers or distributors (Cambage, Stewart, Griner).

On the men's side, it's quite different, as 10 of the last 11 MVPs have been guards or Lebron, who has always handled most of the ball handling and decision making duties. Any theories or logic why the men's game is more guard dominant while the women's is front court dominant?

Also worth noting, we haven't been pumping out as many top guards from the collegiate level like we did in the early part of the century when we saw players like Sue Bird, DT, Deanna Nolan, Whalen, Katie Douglas, Becky Hammon, Cappie Pondexter, Alana Beard and Seimone Augustus enter the pros and really make their mark at the PG or 2 spot. Fast forward to 2018, and arguably the top guards in the league right now are still 37 year old Sue Bird and 35 year old DT. Looking at Team USA's future, I don't really see the guard spot as a strength. The only real standouts I see who are 28 and under would be Diggins, Gray, and Kayla McBride. By the time 2020 comes around, Diggins will be 30, and Gray/McBride will be in their 7th years as pros. All 3 are solid, but after that, it's pretty slim pickings.

The next crop of up and comers looks like Jewell Loyd, Moriah Jefferson, Kelsey Mitchell, Diamond Deshields, Ariel Atkins and Courtney Williams. All are good players, but I don't see any of them being compared to the cream of the crop from the 99-06 college grads listed above. In the college ranks, the only standouts I can see making a big impact at the next level are Ogunbowale, Ionescu, Slocum and maybe Durr.

Compare that to the influx of top forwards and centers who are 28 and under: Nneka Ogwumike, Chiney Ogwumike, Jonquel Jones, Elena Delle-Donne, Brittney Griner, A'ja Wilson, Breanna Stewart, Alyssa Thomas, etc.

I'm not too concerned about USA struggling to win gold anytime soon, but just think it's quite remarkable how we regularly churn out top forwards and centers but haven't been able to develop elite guards as consistently.

 

[MilfordHusky]

Geno said, when he looked at the USABB horizon, he didn't see anyone as good as Dangerfield. Crystal still has to improve, but she'll be a strong candidate at PG in time.

 

[DEpup]

Give Mojeff a year to get healthy and her confidence back and she'll be ready. I also haven't shut the door yet on Tiff Hayes. She is really having a resurgence.

 

[CocoHusky]

Just want to interject one other name into the discussion of elite future USA basketball guards and that is KLS. Her ability to shoot the ball especially from distance, size and improving defense will give her an opportunity.

 

[bballnut90]

Give Mojeff a year to get healthy and her confidence back and she'll be ready. I also haven't shut the door yet on Tiff Hayes. She is really having a resurgence.

I still have hopes for Jefferson but she has a bit of an uphill battle regarding her health. I'm also not sure she's going to beat out Plum in Vegas, and I don't see Plum as a USA basketball caliber player at all. Hayes has been very good, she'll be 30 or 31 when the next Olympics happen and much of her game is centered around her quickness, which means she likely wont have the same speed at 34/35, so if she does make a spot, it'll likely be for just 1 Olympic cycle.

Just want to interject one other name into the discussion of elite future USA basketball guards and that is KLS. Her ability to shoot the ball especially from distance, size and improving defense will give her an opportunity.

Very good player, but I can see her struggling to defend perimeter guards at the next level and she needs to add a good amount of muscle to handle the physicality.

 

[Undercovervol]

I think power forwards and centers can take more advantage of their physical abilities in the women’s game. Very few players of WNBA caliber exist that are 6’4” and over, and if you are that player, you can dominate simply because you’re bigger than everyone. Look at Parker, Stewart, EDD...sure they have skills, but they wouldn’t be nearly unguardable without their length. In the men’s game, because there is size everywhere, size may not matter so much.

 

[Undercovervol]

Also, the athleticism of those players who are that tall makes more of a diffference on the court. EDD has elite athleticism, and that’s rare in women, compounded with her size, and she’s an MVP. Look at Maya Moore. How many women are 6 feet and can leap like her, combined with her speed? I’ll be the first to admit that I highly doubted A’ja Wilson’s abilities at the WNBA level, but look at her: because of her size and speed (combined with playing for a better coach—sorry Staley—) she has really been doing well inside. She blew by CP3 several times Friday.
Also, I wouldn’t doubt the younger guards so much. They’re young and still in the shadows of some older players. I think we have some excellent guards that will come into their own. Don’t doubt MoJeff—she’s the most elite PG I’ve seen when healthy. Skylar Diggins, maya Moore, Chelsea Gray, Sims, Katie Lou, Dangerfield, Big shot at Notre Dame..

 

[nwhoopfan]

Vandersloot deserves to be mentioned among the younger guards. Well on her way to leading the WNBA in assists for the 2nd year in a row (highest assist/game average in league history last season), and that's playing for a bad team without many scoring options. I realize the book is closed on her ever playing for US National Team in Olympics or other international competition, but she's certainly among the better guards under 28 or 30 or whatever the age cut off was mentioned above.

 

[bballnut90]

Vandersloot deserves to be mentioned among the younger guards. Well on her way to leading the WNBA in assists for the 2nd year in a row (highest assist/game average in league history last season), and that's playing for a bad team without many scoring options. I realize the book is closed on her ever playing for US National Team in Olympics or other international competition, but she's certainly among the better guards under 28 or 30 or whatever the age cut off was mentioned above.

Sloot turns 30 in February so that's why she wasn't listed. She's a very good guard, definitely one of the best offensive PGs in the league, but again, I don't think she's at the level of a Bird/Whalen/Hammon type of player. And as you mentioned, she wont be playing for team USA.

 

[Orangutan]

Fast forward to 2018, and arguably the top guards in the league right now are still 37 year old Sue Bird and 35 year old DT. Looking at Team USA's future, I don't really see the guard spot as a strength. The only real standouts I see who are 28 and under would be Diggins, Gray, and Kayla McBride. By the time 2020 comes around, Diggins will be 30, and Gray/McBride will be in their 7th years as pros. All 3 are solid, but after that, it's pretty slim pickings.

Bird and Taurasi are two of the all-time greats. Can't really hold that against future generations. In my opinion, best guard in the league comes down to Diggins-Smith and Taurasi.

Skylar has already been 1st team All-WNBA twice and on track for number 3. Not sure what more you can ask her to prove besides winning the title. If Cambage keeps coming to the WNBA for the next few years, she might have a decent shot at that.

By 2020, the landscape will look totally different. Hard to project that far out without a crystal ball. Folks like Durr, Ogunbowale, and Ionescu will be in the league by then. Kelsey Mitchell will have a few years as a pro under her belt. Plum is already looking way better in year 2. How will she have developed by 2020? What about MoJeff? She can be a dynamite point guard if she can stay injury-free.

It's definitely a transitional moment with guards but I think there a lot of young ones coming up with potential.

 

[bballnut90]

Bird and Taurasi are two of the all-time greats. Can't really hold that against future generations. In my opinion, best guard in the league comes down to Diggins-Smith and Taurasi.

Skylar has already been 1st team All-WNBA twice and on track for number 3. Not sure what more you can ask her to prove besides winning the title. If Cambage keeps coming to the WNBA for the next few years, she might have a decent shot at that.

By 2020, the landscape will look totally different. Hard to project that far out without a crystal ball. Folks like Durr, Ogunbowale, and Ionescu will be in the league by then. Kelsey Mitchell will have a few years as a pro under her belt. Plum is already looking way better in year 2. How will she have developed by 2020? What about MoJeff? She can be a dynamite point guard if she can stay injury-free.

It's definitely a transitional moment with guards but I think there a lot of young ones coming up with potential.

Diggins has been great. She just isn't a spring chicken anymore and will be 30 in 2020, which is quite old to be playing in your first Olympics if you're looking for the next person to stabilize the PG spot for Team USA. Edwards was a mainstay, followed by Staley, followed by Bird. I thought they should've found a spot for her in 2016 so she'd have more international experience. If you look at 2008, they had:
Augustus-24
Pondexter-25
Bird-27
Lawson-27
Taurasi-26

5 guards on the roster who were 27 and under. Of those 5, Augustus/Bird/Pondexter/Taurasi were all top performers immediately entering the league, either averaging 20+ppg or All-WNBA honors as rookies. In 2016, they didn't have any new guards on the roster, or any under 30. Since then, only Diggins has really emerged as a strong candidate to replace Bird, but she probably only has 2 Olympic cycles in her. I agree that there are talented players who are up and coming, but there's a lot more uncertainty at the guard spot than there has been in quite some time.

The next USA backcourt mainstays may come from the HS ranks. Williams might be the next great UCONN guard, Bueckers reminds me of DT with her style of play, and Fudd might be the best of the three.

 

[Orangutan]

Diggins has been great. She just isn't a spring chicken anymore and will be 30 in 2020, which is quite old to be playing in your first Olympics if you're looking for the next person to stabilize the PG spot for Team USA. Edwards was a mainstay, followed by Staley, followed by Bird. I thought they should've found a spot for her in 2016 so she'd have more international experience.

There are two conversations to be had here. One is "Where are the great guards?" Another is "What is the future of USAB at guard?" Those are different questions.

Skylar's ACL injury was timed all wrong for her to be on the Olympic team. It wiped out her 2015 season and she was mediocre in 2016. So I can see why they didn't take her in 2016. Last year she was back to being very good but there's no 2017 Olympic Team. That's just how it goes. I don't know exactly why they didn't take her to Worlds in 2014 but that's ancient history by now.

I don't necessarily think you need to settle on one person who is designated the future and can play for 3 or 4 Olympic cycles. Folks like Diggins-Smith, McBride, and Gray will be around in 2020. After that, who knows?

My personal intuition is that Ionescu is the next great guard who will be a mainstay on USAB for multiple Olympic cycles. Maybe Durr, too, but I'm less sure of that.

 

[oldude]

While both the men’s and women’s games have evolved over the years, the men’s game is evolving much faster. In the men’s game, it’s all about spreading the floor, moving the ball and knocking down 3’s. The traditional low post player has become a dinosaur. As a result, teams like Golden State and Boston, who are loaded with talented guards and wings who can shoot the 3, are setting the trend in men’s basketball.

While there are a number of great 3-pt shooters in the women’s game, there is still a place in the WNBA for “space-eaters” like Cambage, Griner and others who can dominate a game from the low post. In addition, the fact that the women’s game is basically played “below the rim” allows talented guards to be neutralized more effectively than post players.

 

[CajunHusky]

Did I miss someone mentioning Ionescu and Slocum? Ogunbawale?

Yes someone did mention Ionescu ...

 

[oldude]

Did I miss someone mentioning Ionescu and Slocum? Ogunbawale?

Yes someone did mention Ionescu ...

I believe the OP was focused on the pros.

 

[Dillon77]

Sue Bird and Diana Taurasi are still performing at superb levels at relatively advanced ages for guards in part because both are exceedingly dedicated athletes who keep themselves in peak condition.

It strikes me during reading this excellent thread that two of the three of the "next round" of guards who are in their mid-20's are also exceedingly dedicated to peak conditioning: Diggins-Smith is a virtual workout warrior and K-Mac continues to get in better and better shape. I'm guessing that Chelsea Gray is of similar attitude and performance. So, I'm thinking all three or some combination thereof could be good to go in the next rounds of the Basketball World Cup and Olympics.

As many of have mentioned, I'd love to see MoJeff continue to come back from her injuries and Plum has made distinct progress this year. Rookies who have solid years include Ariel Atkins and Victoria Vivians, whose game strikes me as being well-suited to the rigors of international play. Could see one of them working into the Augustus slot.

As for the group coming out of college after that, I'll continue to pay attention to how KLS, Ogunbowale, Durr, etc. play and hopefully grow as players and people. But I strongly agree with the simian in that Ionescu strikes me as someone who looks tailor-made for the national team.

 

[bbsamjj]

As of now, I'm more interested in Vivians over Kelsey Mitchell, but that could change. I also think Canada could still develop into an excellent guard. Her rookie season has been good, not great, and she needs to become a much better shooter. But every year at UCLA she got a lot better, and if she can continue that progress in the WNBA, I think she has the speed, vision, and quickness to be an excellent starting PG.

 

[MilfordHusky]

I'm becoming more of a Skylar fan. I was absolutely not one while she was at ND. Here's what she needs to add to her resume: overseas play. It's a glaring omission.

 

[MilfordHusky]

Looking a little farther down the road ... the Legend from Arkansas has as much potential as anyone.

 

[eebmg]

I'm becoming more of a Skylar fan. I was absolutely not one while she was at ND. Here's what she needs to add to her resume: overseas play. It's a glaring omission.

Why? If she "dominates" the toughest league (by far) on earth, why should it matter? The small number of rule differences ?

 

[MilfordHusky]

Why? If she "dominates" the toughest league (by far) on earth, why should it matter? The small number of rule differences ?

Playing in another country, thousands of miles from home in front of a hostile crowd. I was at the 2014 World Cup in Istanbul, and the environment was unlike any NCAA or WNBA game I've ever seen. Beating Spain in Tenerife will require not just talent but toughness formed from experience.

I would say that Sky is excelling in the W, not dominating it.

 

[CocoHusky]

Before we get around to replacements for Sue and DT there is the immediate need to replace Lindsay Whalen (G) and Catch (SF) for the World Cup in September . Most likely the G slot will go to Skylar. The SF slot is up for grabs but could also be another guard. Of all the players in the current pool, I like KMAC for that position or KLS or Tiffany Hayes.
After the 2018 World cup and before the 2020 Olympics I would expect to see very little change at most 2. Seimone Augustus might bow out-she will be 37. If there are changes I would think A'ja Wilson and KLS would get those two opportunities.
By 2022 I think things are wide open but with foundation pieces of Griner, Charles, Maya, Stewie, EDD, Diggins, KLS, Wilson, KMAC you are already at 9. The college POY (CW?) might have a shot at making this team as has been the tradition in recent years so that would be 10 of 12 slots filled.

 

[bballnut90]

Before we get around to replacements for Sue and DT there is the immediate need to replace Lindsay Whalen (G) and Catch (SF) for the World Cup in September . Most likely the G slot will go to Skylar. The SF slot is up for grabs but could also be another guard. Of all the players in the current pool, I like KMAC for that position or KLS or Tiffany Hayes.
After the 2018 World cup and before the 2020 Olympics I would expect to see very little change at most 2. Seimone Augustus might bow out-she will be 37. If there are changes I would think A'ja Wilson and KLS would get those two opportunities.
By 2022 I think things are wide open but with foundation pieces of Griner, Charles, Maya, Stewie, EDD, Diggins, KLS, Wilson, KMAC you are already at 9. The college POY (CW?) might have a shot at making this team as has been the tradition in recent years so that would be 10 of 12 slots filled.

Augustus shouldn’t be on the roster for 2018 or 2020...she shouldn’t have been named an All Star either this year. I’m also not sure Angel should make the team over some other up and comers. If I built a team right now for 2018 Worlds, it’d be:

Bird
Diggins
Taurasi
KMac
Wilson
EDD
Charles
Nneka
Griner
Maya
Fowles
Stewart

Alternates are Gray and Angel.

2020 Olympics is also over two years away. Augustus shouldn’t make the roster, and Bird might be done or past Olympic shape by that point. Same with DT. Fowles may also slow down by then too.

If both Bird and DT are gone, I’d look for Ionescu and Gray to take those spots. Or possibly KLS or Arike. If McCowan continues to make strides she could fill Fowles void if Big Syl is past her prime.

I guess the future really doesn’t look weak at the guard spot, but I don’t see it as a major strength like it was a decade ago.

 

[bbsamjj]

I like that roster. Added in ages. Avg age of team below would be 28.6. Other potential alternates: Loyd, Chiney, and Bonner (though not sure how realistic that is).

Augustus shouldn’t be on the roster for 2018 or 2020...she shouldn’t have been named an All Star either this year. I’m also not sure Angel should make the team over some other up and comers. If I built a team right now for 2018 Worlds, it’d be:

Bird--37 yo
Diggins--27 yo
Taurasi--36 yo
KMac--26 yo
Wilson--21 yo
EDD--28 yo
Charles--29 yo
Nneka--28 yo
Griner--27 yo
Maya--29 yo
Fowles--32 yo
Stewart--23 yo

Alternates are Gray (25 yo) and Angel (31 yo).

2020 Olympics is also over two years away. Augustus shouldn’t make the roster, and Bird might be done or past Olympic shape by that point. Same with DT. Fowles may also slow down by then too.

If both Bird and DT are gone, I’d look for Ionescu and Gray to take those spots. Or possibly KLS or Arike. If McCowan continues to make strides she could fill Fowles void if Big Syl is past her prime.

I guess the future really doesn’t look weak at the guard spot, but I don’t see it as a major strength like it was a decade ago.

 

[CocoHusky]

Augustus shouldn’t be on the roster for 2018 or 2020...she shouldn’t have been named an All Star either this year. I’m also not sure Angel should make the team over some other up and comers. If I built a team right now for 2018 Worlds, it’d be:

Bird
Diggins
Taurasi
KMac
Wilson
EDD
Charles
Nneka
Griner
Maya
Fowles
Stewart

Alternates are Gray and Angel.
2020 Olympics is also over two years away. Augustus shouldn’t make the roster, and Bird might be done or past Olympic shape by that point. Same with DT. Fowles may also slow down by then too.
If both Bird and DT are gone, I’d look for Ionescu and Gray to take those spots. Or possibly KLS or Arike. If McCowan continues to make strides she could fill Fowles void if Big Syl is past her prime.
I guess the future really doesn’t look weak at the guard spot, but I don’t see it as a major strength like it was a decade ago.

Simone and Angel have earned the right to exit USA basketball on her own terms just like Catch did. World Cup is only a few months away and since neither has not announced a retirement form USA basketball like Whalen did I am betting both will be on the team in Sept. Should they be on the team? That's a different question.
Your team is light on guards only 4 and those guards are collectively very light on perimeter defense. Angel maybe the best perimeter defender that is not on your list. On your roster Neka and A'ja would be replacing Simone and Angel fair enough except Angel and Simone are SF/G. Neither Neka nor A'ja can play SF and they definitely can't play guard. Neka is not having the kind of season that would justify a slam dunk selection to this team. You maybe right about Bird and Taurasi being out of gas come 2020- I am personally not betting on it. Both have found the fountain of youth.
Can't cosign any thought whatsoever of McCowan being in consideration for the national team no matter how many strides she makes from now until 2020.