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Gonzaga: 31-5
KenPom Rating: 6
NET ranking: 6
6-4 vs Q1 ; 5-0 vs Q2
Nation’s Longest Winning Streak (12 games)
KenPom Rating: 6
NET ranking: 6
6-4 vs Q1 ; 5-0 vs Q2
Nation’s Longest Winning Streak (12 games)
Best Win
- 12/17/22 100-90 to Alabana
- Team shot 62.3 2p%, 41.2 3p%
- Six players w/ 10+ points led by Timme’s 29
- Forced 21 turnovers
Worst Loss:
- 11/16/22 93-74 to Texas
- Team gave up 20 turnovers
- Texas shot 63.6 2p% and 39.4 3p%
OFFENSE: 1st in efficiency
- 2nd w/ a 58.5 2p%
- 5th in block percentage
- 10th w/ a 38.3 3p%
- 309th in 3PA/FGA (32.5%)
- 14th in turnover prevention
- 33rd in tempo (16.1 seconds/possession)
- 82nd in offensive rebounding rate
- 96th in FTA/FGA (34.0%)
- 295th w/ a 69.8 FT%
- Timme: 136th in FT rate, 63.3 FT%
- Watson: 266th in FT rate, 56.8 FT%
- 295th w/ a 69.8 FT%
- 180th in A/FGM (50.2%)
DEFENSE: 73rd in efficiency
- 47th in FT prevention (26.2%)
- 268th in opp. FT% (73.2%)
- 54th in defensive rebounding rate
- 56th in forcing ISO (45.5% A/FGM)
- 122nd in steal rate
- Watson 107th in the nation (that surprises me for a PF)
- Smith 430th in the nation
- 136th in block rate
- Timme 289th in the nation
- Gregg’s 6.4% block rate would be 83rd in the nation if qualified w/ enough minutes
- 164th in opp. Avg. possession length (17.6 seconds)
- 203rd in opp. 2P% (50.7%)
- 241st in 3PA/FGA prevention (38.9%)
- 257th in opp. 3P% (35.7%)
Other metrics:
- 20th in minutes continuity (66.8%)
- 51st in height (6’6.1)
- 210th in 2-Foul Participation (18.3%)
- 313th in bench minutes (24.6%)
- In comparison, UConn is 221st w/ 29.3%, lower than I expected
Offensive efficiency is nothing new for Mark Few: Gonzaga has finished the season #1 in offensive efficiency in three of the last four years and even finished within the top-ten in five of his first seven seasons at the helm, well before he was recruiting five-star recruits and impact transfers.
That focus on offense has typically skewed his teams to have weak defenses in comparison to the teams ranked similarly in the nation. Case in point, Gonzaga’s efficiency ranking this season is its lowest since the 2006-07 season and only Baylor, Missouri and Miami have lower efficiency ratings within the AP Top 25.
That being said, Gonzaga has strong individual defenders, more on that later.
Long story short, Gonzaga wants to play fast and put points on the board: nine of their game point totals this season were 99 points or higher while they are just 2-5 when scoring 74 points or lower. The good news: UConn has the length, athleticism and defensive system that has the ability to slow down the Bulldogs…we’re coming off tournament games where opponents have scored an average of 61 points.
Aside from playing arguably the weakest defense UConn has played so far in the tournament, a big analytical advantage (nerds!) comes in Timme’s and Watson’s combined issues on the charity stripe. As seen above, teams foul this duo a ton (obviously, they have the ball in their hands a lot), but there is a sound strategy in a hack-a-Bulldog-frontcourt option, if necessary.
Simply put, Gonzaga’s strength is in their forwards and wings with Timme, Strawther and Watson the team’s minutes and scoring leaders.
Maybe it’s overconfidence, but UConn matches up well with Timme: yes, he’s an incredibly gifted offensive power forward, but Gonzaga has not seen a 1-2 punch at the 5 spot between Sanogo and Clingan. Not only will the duo share five fouls apiece when guarding Timme, but they both have a clear size and strength advantage over Timme. Timme’s strengths are his footwork, variety of post moves and passing ability (leads the team in assists).
To me, Watson is Gonzaga’s two-way X factor, but I see a lot of Saint Mary’s Kyle Bowen in Anton Watson: defense, physicality, length, smart player who keeps things simple in offense: while he will be a tough assignment for Karaban, especially with put backs and post ups, Karaban was battle tested between talented, strong 4s between Iona’s Nelly Junior Joseph and Bowen. Watson worries me the most when UConn is in low-post situations, but Sanogo has made major strides this year in kick outs when the pressure rises.
Strawther is Gonzaga’s best NBA prospect due to his size, BBIQ and shooting ability from all three levels, but as many have mentioned before Andre Jackson is tailor made to shadow him. He’s got the athletic ability to defend well, but he gets a bit of tunnel vision, especially in switching opportunities, so there’s a good chance Hurley could draw up sets to free up Jackson for easy basket opportunities (like that beautiful set from the Arkansas game where he was WIDE open on the baseline.
Gregg is the backup at both the 4 and the 5, with an NBA ready toolbox as a rim-running stretch forward who is also the team’s best rim protector.
As seen below, Few’s guard rotations are almost hockey shift-esque: the most offensive savvy starters of Hickman/Bolton and the stronger defensive duo of Sallis/Smith.
Bolton (Iowa State via Penn State) and Smith (Chattanooga via Wright State) are both former stars from their previous stops who have fit in beautifully in Few’s offensive scheme. Both were three-level, bucket-getting scorers in their previous stops, they have the ability to break down the defense to create their own offense and get to the line. Even though Bolton is the starter, both guards play similar minutes and, in my opinion, are interchangeably effective offensive players: Bolton is a quick shooter while Smith is the more physical two-way option.
On a team with multiple strong facilitators, both Hickman and Sallis are low-usage point guards. Hickman is smaller and the better shooter, but Newton’s size and length should give Hickman issues on defense. On the other end, Sallis is clearly Gonzaga’s best perimeter defender, but is Gonzaga’s only weak shooter from three. Sallis is also the better breakdown offensive player.
When UConn is on offense, I see clear matchup advantages for Newton/Hawkins/Big whenever their starters are on the floor while Jackson matches up with Strawther lovely on both ends.
Simply put, UConn has not seen an offense this talented so far this year, but you could also argue that Gonzaga has the worst defense since playing Providence in the BET.
Winning their last two games by three points, Gonzaga has walked a bit of a tight rope lately but obviously they are not taken lightly. They’ll try to push the tempo but I have a lot of confidence in Hurley’s halfcourt offensive set creativity to use the clock, when needed, to find open scorers.
It’s here! I’m giddy!
KenPom’s prediction: UConn wins 80-77