Georgia Tech: the lynchpin | Page 2 | The Boneyard

Georgia Tech: the lynchpin

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So the Pac 12 is going to just sit? The Big12 is a fat Wildebeast and the B1G, SEC and Pac12 are the Hyenas. I think we should practice our affirmative response... OK everybuddy... Buns UP! Hope we're noticed.
 
Pac won't move unless it gets who it tried to get a few years ago, Texas (and whoever it takes to bring Texas in). The fact is the Big 12 has no great targets outside Oklahoma, Texas, and Kansas. It is why it was so easy to get a GOR, everyone else knows they are looking at Mountain West if the thing explodes. Texas' ego, and their unwillingness to budge on their network, is the only thing holding the league together.
 
whaler11 said:
Why does the Big 10 'have' to move?
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Because there's a grand plan that doesn't make sense if you stop at Rutgers and Maryland. Because their contract expires in 2015, and they have to figure out a way to move enough content to BTN while satisfying Fox and ESPN at the same time. They need two ACC teams to make everything work, and they need them in the next 2 years.
 
whaler11 said:
The only place those 8 teams can come from are the Big East and ACC in your
scenario. There is no way they are ever 9th on the list.

They don't wake up one morning and everyone is gone. The idea that NCSU or UNC or VPI or Virginia can move in a vacuum is ridiculous. They can't move on a whim, the North Carolina state legislature got involved to make NCSU play friggin ECU in football.
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Miami, VT, UVa, NCSt, Duke, UNC, Clemson, FSU, Miami = 9 > GT

GT is 10th on the list, not 9th, and forget about 8th. Move them ahead of Duke and Miami if you will, but I would not count on that.
 
whaler11 said:
I'd prefer it was. You seem to infer that if GT doesn't move now they are screwed. Well where can they move today?
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I didn't say what you wrote. I said they are the lynchpin, the team that will unlock the secrets of the universe. They will move first.
 
JeepCSC said:
Virginia seems to be a better linchpin. If Virginia moves, then the Big 10 can move farther south. They won't take Georgia Tech on an island. Virginia will probably have to move first.
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I see Virginia and GTech moving. But GT moves first. UVa won't move until they see the UVa or UNC scenario in stark terms. The B1G will be bold to accomplish what it wants.
 
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bigeastconf said:
UNC can go anywhere they want, but they'll never have the same pull in the SEC or Big10, I think they just enjoy having their ego stroked.
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Exactly. This is why they don't have to move and why they will sit back and watch. When it looks like GTech and UVa are on the go, only then will they pick up the phone.
 
Big 10 won't take Georgia Tech until it gets Virginia. GT can say yes, but if Virginia says no, I think it is moot. Georgia Tech is too far of an outlier to take if the Big 10 can get no one else. They aren't the Big XII, throwing together some make-shift conference just because. So Virginia is the main factor I think in all this. Georgia Tech, while a blow, would not kill the ACC in the same way Virginia would. An original member that has strong ties to several ACC schools, in particular UNC and one of the football powers in VPI, Virginia is one of the faces of the ACC. Lose them, and the whole thing becomes undone.
 
JeepCSC said:
Big 10 won't take Georgia Tech until it gets Virginia. GT can say yes, but if Virginia says no, I think it is moot. Georgia Tech is too far of an outlier to take if the Big 10 can get no one else. They aren't the Big XII, throwing together some make-shift conference just because. So Virginia is the main factor I think in all this.
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This is why I call GTech the lynchpin.

Because, by definition, it's the one you choose to destabilize the conference. Georgia Tech goes, and that's when you get Virginia.
 
It's hilarious to me...karma is a b!tch!

Destabilizing the Big East was very much to the ACC's advantage.

Now, destabilizing the ACC is very much to the B1G's advantage.

Can't say I'm not a little tickled by this...
 
I edited above, but my point remains. You could take Georgia Tech and nothing could happen. Georgia Tech isn't an original member, isn't overflowing with strong ties to other schools, is in all respects a mid-level ACC program. I could imagine the other schools taking the loss and moving on. It may shake things up, because honestly all instability has the potential for large ramifications, but I don't think it necessarily follows. Virginia is different. You lose that, and suddenly UNC lost one of it's top rivals, VPI lost it's main tie to the ACC, and the ACC lost one of it's big powerbrokers. Big 10 takes GT first, and they might have a shot at another school, or they may not. Big 10 takes Virginia first, and then all of a sudden UNC perhaps opens up.
 
upstater said:
The B1G is all about TV. Hence Rutgers and Maryland. They are not looking at Oklahoma and Kansas etc. Forget about that.

I agree that the ACC is best as it is. The problem, however, is that any move dooms Georgia Tech if they don't move first.

I called this the UConn principle a while back. You'd be foolish to risk your school's bank account on the hope that the ACC sticks together. FSU, UNC, UVa don't have to worry. All the other schools do, especially Georgia Tech.
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But those states are growing rapidly. KU and OU are land bridges to Texas and Colorado, two of the fastest growing states in the country. By the way, OKC is one of the fastest growing cities, and even Kansas is growing much faster than say, Connecticut. Delany needs eyeballs, but he also is intent on fixing his demographics problem.
 
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JeepCSC said:
I edited above, but my point remains. You could take Georgia Tech and nothing could happen. Georgia Tech isn't an original member, isn't overflowing with strong ties to other schools, is in all respects a mid-level ACC program. I could imagine the other schools taking the loss and moving on. It may shake things up, because honestly all instability has the potential for large ramifications, but I don't think it necessarily follows. Virginia is different. You lose that, and suddenly UNC lost one of it's top rivals, VPI lost it's main tie to the ACC, and the ACC lost one of it's big powerbrokers. Big 10 takes GT first, and they might have a shot at another school, or they may not. Big 10 takes Virginia first, and then all of a sudden UNC perhaps opens up.
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Virginia would have to have massive stones to sit there, when there is one spot open in the B1G, and sneer at it. What if UNC takes that spot? Does Virginia then call the B1G and say, please add us and Duke? Us and VT? Us and whoever, hell UConn?! They become the next domino.
 
HuskyHawk said:
But those states are growing rapidly. KU and OU are land bridges to Texas and Colorado, two of the fastest growing states in the country. By the way, OKC is one of the fastest growing cities, and even Kansas is growing much faster than say, Connecticut. Delany needs eyeballs, but he also is intent on fixing his demographics problem.
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I've been to Oklahoma. You'd be shocked if you ever go. Really shocked. My jaw dropped as I was being driven around. Here is what I saw. A lot of red clay. A lot of yellow grass. A lot of shacks. A lot of McMansions. And a whole lotta nothing.
 
There are towns in Kansas and Oklahoma who will give a young married couple a house for free if they promise to move there.

The middle of this country is a large, empty wasteland.
 
Virginia is not a school dominated by athletics. I think they could go to the Big 10, but I don't think that decision would be based on Georgia Tech and some weird game of chicken the B10 would be playing. And if the Big 10 takes Georgia Tech 10 hours away from their next-closest member, I think it would be understood there wouldn't be 1 more spot open, that the Big 10 is prepared to go to 20. Virginia is a power-broker at the ACC with strong ties. Lose that, and the whole ball of wax comes undone. Georgia Tech doesn't have that much pull.
 
I think its FSU and has to be SEC or B1G. I think B1G is most likely to invite, and that could start dominos falling. I think B1G can sell FSU internally as a southern outpost (like Miami in BE in early days) but not sure they can sell GT internally the same way. They may take GT too but, in my opinion, not as a solo. GT would need a partner. I think FSU would take the deal for the cash. I don't see any of the traditional ACC schools (a.k.a, UNC, UVA) being the first to leave. If FSU goes then all bets are off and the other schools head for the door.
 
JeepCSC said:
Virginia is not a school dominated by athletics. I think they could go to the Big 10, but I don't think that decision would be based on Georgia Tech and some weird game of chicken the B10 would be playing. And if the Big 10 takes Georgia Tech 10 hours away from their next-closest member, I think it would be understood there wouldn't be 1 more spot open, that the Big 10 is prepared to go to 20. Virginia is a power-broker at the ACC with strong ties. Lose that, and the whole ball of wax comes undone. Georgia Tech doesn't have that much pull.
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It's because it is NOT dominated by athletics that the decision to take the money would be so enticing, especially since the flipside of that coin is losing more money than they make now. The backdrop of all of this is that the state leg. is cutting lots of funding to U. Virginia (recall the backlash when the President resigned last year). The B1G would stop adding at 16 unless UNC comes calling. Only way they go to 18 is if UNC prefers the B1G to the SEC.
 
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upstater said:
Miami, VT, UVa, NCSt, Duke, UNC, Clemson, FSU, Miami = 9 > GT

GT is 10th on the list, not 9th, and forget about 8th. Move them ahead of Duke and Miami if you will, but I would not count on that.
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You've got Miami on your list twice. I would say this list begins with UNC and UVa.

Then it depends on what you are looking for: if you want football excellence above all else, VT, Clemson, FSU. Miami, due to history comes above them. But not NCSt or Duke. That makes GT 6.

If you are concerned with markets? GT is next (3), unless you need Duke to get UNC, in which case GT is 4.
 
upstater said:
I've been to Oklahoma. You'd be shocked if you ever go. Really shocked. My jaw dropped as I was being driven around. Here is what I saw. A lot of red clay. A lot of yellow grass. A lot of shacks. A lot of McMansions. And a whole lotta nothing.
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I've been several times (I did go to law school at Kansas). Nothing shocking. Tulsa is much nicer by the way, more wooded, rolling hills. OKC is pretty much the start of the southwest. But it is one of fastest growing. And Texas has the top three. Denver is on the list as well.
 
GT alone wont make the ACC flinch. I feel that the B1G is using GT as leverage to try and force UNCs hand. GT alone is no different than UConn, a filler.
 
HuskyHawk said:
I've been several times (I did go to law school at Kansas). Nothing shocking. Tulsa is much nicer by the way, more wooded, rolling hills. OKC is pretty much the start of the southwest. But it is one of fastest growing. And Texas has the top three. Denver is on the list as well.
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Agreed about Tulsa.

The thing about Connecticut is that it is populated in between the cities with many wealthy communities. The Pac-10 rejected Oklahoma. Can you imagine what the B10's attitude is?
 
tzznandrew said:
You've got Miami on your list twice. I would say this list begins with UNC and UVa.

Then it depends on what you are looking for: if you want football excellence above all else, VT, Clemson, FSU. Miami, due to history comes above them. But not NCSt or Duke. That makes GT 6.

If you are concerned with markets? GT is next (3), unless you need Duke to get UNC, in which case GT is 4.
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Disagree here.

You're right about Miami. But Duke and NC state are both more prized than GTech. Duke is a household name. The question here is one of landing spots. You can't rank these schools in a vacuum. GTech -- even though I rank them 9th -- gets one of the first invites to the wealthiest conference, B1G, not because it's the prettiest, but because of the fit. NC State doesn't fit there. But if the B1G's spots are taken, where does GT go? Not to the SEC. Despite your ranking of GT over NC State (I don't see it by the way in neither football nor basketball or even market) I say SEC takes NC State before GTech.

So, then, GT is in a fight with Miami, FSU, Clemson and one of VT/NC State for the last spot in the B12. Would they really feel sanguine in such a scenario? If I were GT, I wouldn't.
 
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I understand you think the Big 10 wants to play chicken, but I don't think it happens like that because I don't think the Big 10 wants what it is left holding if it blinks first. Virginia holds the key. It is the key to the Big 10 expanding south, it is the key to VPI ever having wandering eyes to the SEC, it is the key to UNC feeling a significant loss in the ACC and perhaps beginning their rethinking. Georgia Tech may move the ACC into panic mode. Virginia will. The fact Virginia is contiguous is a big bonus.
 
Someone (Congress?) needs to step in and end this nonsense. Eight conferences, each with 9 teams. Winners to compete in end of season playoff. A nine team conference would mandate eight (4-4) conferences games per year. The other four can and should be intriging OOC matchups. No need to schedule cupcakes since your overall record doesn't get you to the playoffs, your conference record does.

Oh . . . . and conferences to make geographic sense. Period. The Northeast Conference . . . . BC, UConn, Syracuse, Rutgers, Penn State, Maryland, Navy, Kentucky, Virginia and West Virginia. The SEC . . . Alabama, Florida, Auburn, FSU, Miami, Tennessee, Georgia, Mississippi and Mississippi State South Florida. The ACC . . . Virginia Tech, UNC, NC State, Duke, Wake, Central Florida, Georgia Tech, Vandy, Clemson and South Carolina. The Big "9" . . . Texas, Texas AM, Oklahoma, OK State, Arkansas, LSU, Texas Tech, Baylor and Missouri. PAC-"9" . . . USC, UCLA, Stanford, Cal, Oregon, OSU, Washington, Wash State and San Diego State. BiG "9" . . . Ohio State, Michigan, Pitt, Michigan State, Notre Dame, Indiana, Purdue, Northwestern and Illinois. Midwest Conference . . . Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Iowa State, Colorado, Nebraska, Kansas, Kansas State, Air Force and Colorado State. Rocky Mountain Conference - BYU, Utah, Boise State, Arizona, Arizona State, Houston, SMU, Nevada and Fresno.

May require a few tweaks here and there, but the concept is clear. May need to add in a couple to teams, and a few conferences required to house 10 teams. You tell ESPN and CBS and others that there are no more conferences. Bid for the playoff action, schedule the major OCCs, or go back to Australian Rules Football, but you are no longer going to screw up college athletics.
 
upstater said:
Agreed about Tulsa.

The thing about Connecticut is that it is populated in between the cities with many wealthy communities. The Pac-10 rejected Oklahoma. Can you imagine what the B10's attitude is?
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I imagine about the same as they felt towards Nebraska. Did you see that one coming? OU has a similar level football team (#7 all time wins) and better basketball, great baseball and much better demographics. I think the B1G looks at three factors (in no particular order). 1. content/brand 2. DMA/ TV markets 3. population/recruiting. Penn State brought all three. Nebraska, mostly just #1. But that allowed the B1G to add two teams with weaker content/brands, but great TV markets last time. I don't think the B1G can ignore #1 in this round. Content is king. Think about what Notre Dame brings? They are all about #1, just like Nebraska. OU football turns on TVs.
 
upstater said:
I've been waiting to see what Georgia Tech will do. They can't go to the SEC, and the B12 can take 4 better schools than them, so unless they stay in the ACC, the B1G is the only destination.

Tech has to move as soon as it gets that invite, and it can't sit on it, and it can't play footsie with the B1G either. The President and BOT of GT have to have that decision made yesterday, an affirmative response ready in seconds.

Otherwise they can end up like Wake Forest or else the other one or two ACC schools that will join the old Big East.

Thoughts?

What other school is the lynchpin here?
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Upstater you didn't say they would be screwed? Just end up like Wake. Um ok.
 
upstater said:
Disagree here.

You're right about Miami. But Duke and NC state are both more prized than GTech. Duke is a household name. The question here is one of landing spots. You can't rank these schools in a vacuum. GTech -- even though I rank them 9th -- gets one of the first invites to the wealthiest conference, B1G, not because it's the prettiest, but because of the fit. NC State doesn't fit there. But if the B1G's spots are taken, where does GT go? Not to the SEC. Despite your ranking of GT over NC State (I don't see it by the way in neither football nor basketball or even market) I say SEC takes NC State before GTech.

So, then, GT is in a fight with Miami, FSU, Clemson and one of VT/NC State for the last spot in the B12. Would they really feel sanguine in such a scenario? If I were GT, I wouldn't.
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About Duke/NC State vs. Georgia Tech.

In a vacuum, Georgia Tech is worth more. The SEC has a gentleman's agreement to not pair up any more states than they already do (Alabama/Auburn, Tennessee/Vanderbilt). Here are the schools, or the school pairs remaining where only one can be accepted, that would violate that.

If this agreement is fact:
  • Because of Florida, FSU and Miami are out (and pretty much without saying, the BE Florida schools)
  • Because of Georgia, Georgia Tech is out
  • Because of Kentucky, Louisville is out
  • Because of LSU, Tulane is out (hahahaha, just kidding)
  • Because of South Carolina, Clemson is out.
  • Only one of UNC and NC State can be brought in (I'd bet the SEC would waive the agreement a bit if they needed Duke to get UNC, but that's it)
  • Only one of UVa and VT can come in
So, let's imagine this now. I think the SEC and B1G (and, in their dreams, the B12) would want UVa and UNC first. There's a scenario where UNC goes to the SEC--in which case NCState is behind GT. The B1G isn't taking them, while the B1G could take GT, in the same way the B1G isn't likely to take VT.
Whereas GT won't be let into the SEC, but could be into the B1G, NCState won't be let into the B1G, but could be into the SEC.
So then, we think about the B12. It depends on how many schools the B12 decides to take (if the B12 survives). Who is more appealing? I'd say there's little chance, if GT is sitting there, that the B12 takes FSU and Clemson, but skips GT. I think it is possible that they take GT, FSU, Clemson, and NCSTate if all are sitting there, but I think that unlikely.
Look, we're dealing with matters of degree here. Both are likely to be in a home. I think GT is more appealing, ultimately. But I don't think they're some sort of lynchpin. That is UVa. I think if the B1G can get UVa, but no one else in the ACC, they still go for it, either with UConn, or Kansas, or someone else. If they can't get UVa, I don't think they can get UNC at all, so conferences stay.
 
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