Game Analysis - NCAA - Game 3 - UConn v. North Carolina | The Boneyard

Game Analysis - NCAA - Game 3 - UConn v. North Carolina

cferraro04

cferraro04

Sensei
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GENERAL COMMENTS:

Whew! After watching the first half of the UConn v. Syracuse game, I don't think you can see a more potent offensive onslaught than what we witnessed Monday night. If you are a North Carolina coach, you have to be thinking about the old John Donne quote: "Send not to know for whom the bell tolls, it tolls for thee". Of course, I mean this metaphorically. If you are in North Carolina, you are running around frantically trying to figure out who to match up with whom. With UConn clicking on all cylinders, it is an almost impossible task, and then you have all those great players coming off the bench. I think North Carolina has a very tall mountain to climb, and they don't have the proper equipment for mountain climbing

North Carolina will more than likely start: Ciera Toomey, 6'4", Nyla Harris, 6'2", Elina Aarnisalo, 5'10", Indya Nivar, 5'10", and Lanie Grant, 5'9"...on paper, the perfect match-ups when considering only size. However, when you look at overall individual talent, both offensively and defensively, and add to it the compounding effect of team cohesiveness, size alone will not get the job done against the Huskies. As far as help from the bench goes, North Carolina generally plays three players: Nyla Brooks, Laila Hull, and Taissa Queiroz, who bring 15.8 points, 8.1 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 1.6 steals, 1 block, and 2.9 three-pointers to the cause. This is hardly enough to offset UConn's potent bench production of 35.4 points, 15.9 rebounds, 8.7 assists, 5.4 steals, 1.6 blocks, and 3.3 three-pointers.

Overall, North Carolina is not a bad defensive team. Their record is 26-7; Their RPI is 15 (not bad); their SoS is 39 (respectable); their NET ranking is 19 (not bad). Their defensive rating is 82.4, ranking them 24th in the country (very respectable). They hold their opponents to 58.9 points per game, ranking them 46th in the country in raw scoring defense (also, respectable).

UConn's defensive rating is 68.4, making them the number one defense in the country. They lead the country, only allowing 50.4 points per game. They also have the nation's best defensive player, Sarah Strong.

North Carolina's Perimeter Pressure features an elite ball-hawk, Indya Nivar, who averages 2.6 steals per game, but she is countered by UConn's KK Arnold, who averages 2.8 steals per game and anchors a defense that has allowed just 50.4 points per game this season. Rim protection: North Carolina has Ciera Toomey, who averages 1.6 BPG, but again, she is offset by Sarah Strong, who averages 1.6 blocks per game, and Serah Williams, who averages 1.4 blocks per game. UConn's depth in length and height forces opponents into low-efficiency shots, where opponents shoot just 30.4% against them. Then there is the "Press" Factor...UConn's defense is famous for its "string" play and full-court pressure, as evidenced by UConn holding Syracuse to a 31-0 run. UConn is currently a 25.5-point favorite in this matchup.

PLAYER MATCH UPS:

Serah Williams, 6'4" - Sr. Forward v. Ciera Toomey, 6'4" - Redshirt Sophomore Forward - Ciera averages 23.3 minutes per game, 8.9 points, 6.2 rebounds, 1.5 assists, .7 steals, and 1.6 blocks. Serah is averaging 17.9 minutes per game and averages 7.0 points, 4.4 rebounds, 1.6 assists, .7 steals, and 1.3 blocks. I am going to call this matchup... ADVANTAGE - EVEN

Sarah Strong, 6'2" - Sophomore Forward v. Nyla Harris, 6'2' - Senior Forward - Nyla is a good all-around player, averaging 11.5 points, 6.9 rebounds, .8 assists, 1.0 steals, .3 blocks per game in 23.3 minutes of play. Sarah Strong averages 18.4 points, 7.5 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 3.3 steals, 1.6 blocks, and 1.6 three-pointers per game in 26.3 minutes of play. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Azzi Fudd, 5'11" - Graduate Guard v. Lanie Grant, 5'9" - Sophomore Guard - Lanie averages 11.1 points, 1.9 rebounds, 2.3 assists, .6 steals, and 2.15 three-pointers per game in 29.2 minutes of play. Azzi averages 17.8 points, 2.6 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 2.5 steals, .5 blocks, and 3.1 three-pointers per game in 27.8 minutes of play. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Ashlynn Shade, 5'10" - Junior Guard v. Elina Aarnialo, 5'10" - Sophomore Guard - Elina averages 10.4 points, 3.3 rebounds, 2.8 assists, .9 steals, 1.1 three-pointers per game in 26.6 minutes of play. Ashlynn averages 7.9 points, 3.5 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 1.8 steals, and 1.3 three-pointers per game in 26.9 minutes of play. Statistically, these two players are a push. When you factor in Ashlynn's defense and the overall UConn defense, the advantage moves in Ashlynn's direction. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

KK Arnold, 5'9" - Junior Guard v. Indya Nivar, 5'10" - Senior Guard - This should be an interesting matchup with two elite ball hawks going at it. Indya averages 10.3 points, 5.1 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 2.6 steals, .5 blocks, and .7 three-pointers per game in 28.4 minutes of play. KK is averaging 7.3 points, 2.2 rebounds, 4.7 assists, 2.7 steals, .1 blocks, .5 three-pointers per game in 24.1 minutes of play. ADVANTAGE - EVEN

BENCH:

North Carolina: 15.8 points, 8.1 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 1.6 steals, 1 block, and 2.9 three-pointers
UConn: 35.4 points, 15.9 rebounds, 8.7 assists, 5.4 steals, 1.6 blocks, and 3.3 three-pointers.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

COACHING:

UConn's coaching staff has been here for 32 consecutive Sweet 16 appearances, 12 Natys. They will have scouted North Carolina well, and they will get the job done. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

INTANGIBLES:

Venue won't matter, UConn too long, too seasoned, too much talent and experience, too deep for North Carolina. Like I said in the general comments, "For who does the bell toll, it tolls for thee". ADVANTAGE - UCONN

SCORE:

UCONN - 85
NORTH CAROLINA - 59
MOV - 26

​

 
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Thanks again, Sensei. This is a particularly interesting analysis given the circumstances. Only question for me is matching Indiya with KK. I realize that the switching defense will have KK guarding Indiya some of the time. But the corresponding player seems more likely to be Ash, especially since Elena looks more like a PG than Indiya. This is a nitpick, of course. The entire front court of UNC is likely to be overwhelmed by UConn's much deeper front court.

I think you're right about Toomey. She is a solid 5 with an efficient game at both ends. One thing that surprises me is that Blanca Thomas is no longer part of the active rotation. I imagine she's been injured, though I haven't seen any reports on this. Courtney did well to recruit this pair, but hasn't often had the benefit of the twin towers they could be.
 
North Carolina Tar Heels | Torvik | SRCBB
UConn vs North Carolina (Sweet 16)

IMG_1054.jpeg
 
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I realize that there is a limit to the predictive reliability of common-opponent comparisons (i.e., no "transitive law" in sports as there is in mathematics), but ...

On January 25, North Carolina needed overtime to beat Syracuse by 6 points in Chapel Hill! It's true that Dominique Darius was available to Syracuse in that game, but was not available on Monday evening. But still, an overtime nail-biter for the Tar Heels at home vs. a piranha feast for UConn on Monday night? That does not suggest to me that Friday's game will be very close.

North Carolina had 20 turnovers against Syracuse in that game, from which Syracuse scored 15 points. Syracuse had only 11 turnovers against North Carolina. Those turnovers, plus a 19-to-10 Syracuse advantage in offensive rebounds, led to Syracuse having 21 more shot attempts in the game than North Carolina, and Syracuse actually scored 1 more field goal than the Tar Heels. Izoje of Syracuse had 27 points in that game on 11-for-24 shooting along with 12 rebounds. North Carolina's center, Cierra Toomey, played 34 minutes but had only 6 points with 10 rebounds.

Considering how well UConn was able to defend Izoje, I doubt that Serah Williams will have too many problems with Toomey.

I hope that Jana plays significant minutes in Friday's game so we can have a first-hand comparison of her overall basketball skills with Toomey's.
 
Now we are getting down to the Nitty Gritty of this Tournament. the Syracuse game has shown that Uconn is ready for battle, so now we will see if the other teams are also. I went to Google and found that Uconn is 9 wins and 4 losses against NO. Carolina Uconn has played them and is acquainted with the teams play, which I believe will be no problem. My thoughts are 3 down and 3 to go. GO HUSKIES!!!!!
 
UNC is not a pushover....they have several efficient three-point shooters and their scoring is spread out among eight players who all get decent minutes........If they are hitting their three's, they may be able to stick with UConn for a while........I don't care how much UConn wins by..........just take the win, don't get injured and move on......
 
This is how Xfinity describes Friday's game:
"Both teams seek a spot in the next round; the Huskies look to sophomore Sarah Strong while the Tar Heels rely on Nyla Harris. Both programs bring their best performance."
 
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This will be UConn's 5th ACC opponent this year. Their average MOV in the previous 4 games is 34.

Against their four common opponents this season, UNC's average point differential is -1.6; UConn's is, again, +34.

This should be the last "easy" game of the season for our guys. Enjoy it!
 
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I just watched the entire game replay of the Maryland - UNC game played last Sunday in Round 2 of the NCAA Tournament. North Caroline won the game 74-66 on a late rally after the game was tied at 52-52 midway through the 4th quarter.

Maryland lost the game more than UNC won it. The Terps went 3-for-23 (13%) from 3-point range, and 17-for-31 (55%) from the free throw line. Yes, that is correct: UNC committed 21 fouls and allowed 31 free throw attempts by Maryland. One of UNC's starters (Indya Nivar) fouled out (albeit with 16 seconds left in the game), and another (Elina Aarnisalo, who played for UCLA last year) had four fouls.

Had Maryland been able to convert a normal percentage of 3-point attempts or of free throw attempts, they would have won the game comfortably.

UNC had balanced scoring and reasonably good shooting accuracy (49% overall and 36% from 3), but I didn't see anything or anyone "scary" on their team. To my eyes, Aarnisalo was their best player on offense. She led them in scoring with 21 points. Notably, UNC had only 10 assists on 28 made field goals, which does not suggest a highly coordinated offense.

I usually try to temper my optimism, but it seems like UConn will need to have an unusually poor shooting night to keep the margin of victory under 20 points.
 
I just did my prognostication and it got me thinking about UNC. I suspect Serah and Jana will make life very difficult for Ciera Toomey. After her, all the heels have is Harris or Hill or Brooks, which means going small. Now I like the. UNC guards, especially Nivar, Grant and Aarnisalo. But they are definitely not going to be able to stand up to the pressure our guards can bring.

What’s worse is that with the injury to Kelly, their best ball handler, their rotation is down to 7 players. By contrast, Geno will likely play 9 deep in the main rotation and can bring in as many as 3 more in the 4th quarter. I expect to see a very tired UNC team (physically and mentally) by the 2nd quarter.

This is why I’m looking for a 40 point blowout. Geno won’t run up the score, but he will insist on playing tough defense for as long as possible.
 
When we analyze our opponents, we look at their objective stats; height, scoring avg., assts, etc,. are the criteria.
What's missing is speed.
Most teams play at what I call "record player" speed 33. Some top teams in the SEC (LSU) play at record speed 45.
What shocks our opponents is that UConn plays at the record speed 78. They literally can not adjust to our speed, the games end in blow outs.
Our opposing coaches say they can't prepare for us.
Why? They have never experienced our speed . ( With our length).
 
There are teams with good defenses. There are teams that press. UConns press is a buzzsaw and it makes you have to run your offense in less time than you would normally have. That makes you rush and play quicker. It makes for mistakes and takes you out of your game. If you can't execute and you can't get open, you will have problems.
 
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