Game Analysis - Game 6 - UConn vs Ole' Miss

[cferraro04]

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Well, it isn't always that you get a second bite at the apple...but, here goes. Ole' Miss played USC to a 2-point loss in their season opener...despite Ju Ju going off for 27 points and Kiki Iriafen scoring 22. That is a game that makes you stop and think...maybe we can't sleep on this team. Ole' Miss has a lot of upperclassmen starting 3 Graduate students, 1 Senior and 1 Freshman: KK Dean, 5'8" - Graduate; Sira Thienou, 6'1" - Freshman; Starr Jacobs, 6'1" - Graduate; Kennedy Todd-Williams, 6'0" - Senior; Madison Scott, 6'2" - Graduate. They will bring another Graduate student and two Juniors off the bench: Christeen Iwuala, 6'3" - Junior; Avanna Thompson, 6'1" - Junior and Tameiya Sadler, 5'8".

They are a pretty balanced team with all five starters averaging double digits. Defensively they get after the ball averaging 12.4 steals per game. Their defense is tenacious and they force 24 turnovers per game while only committing 13 per game themselves. They score over 1/3 of their points per game off of turnovers. Fortunately, UConn has kept its turnovers to about 10 per game while they average 12.6 steals and turn their opponents over 20.8 times per game. UConn also scores about 1/4 of its points off turnovers averaging 23.4 times per game. This should be a great defensive game and UConn will need to take care of the basketball and get back on defense if they plan to limit Ole Miss' points off turnovers.

PLAYER ANALYSIS:

Ice Brady, 6'3" - RS-Sophomore (F) vs Starr Jacobs, 6'1" - Graduate (F) - Starr averages 10.8 points, 6.2 rebounds per game...because she primarily will play down low...I believe that Ice will get that assignment. Ice is averaging 7.2 points and 4.2 rebounds per game. Ice will need to keep Starr in front of her, and watch her fouls as Starr may have a speed advantage.
ADVANTAGE - OLE MISS

Paige, 6'0"— RS-Senior (G / F) vs Madison Scott, 6'2"—Graduate (PG/F)—Madison is an interesting player. At 6'2", she plays both the point guard and forward, and she is somewhat positionless. This is going to be an interesting matchup. The matchup features an experienced, talented graduate student playing off an All-American who can do it all...bring the ball up, post up, and shoot threes. Madison averages 9.8 points, 3.8 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.4 steals, 1.6 blocks. Paige is averaging 20.6 points, 4.6 rebounds, 4.6 assists, 2.4 steals, and 2.2 three-pointers per game.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Sarah Strong, 6'2" - Freshmen (F) vs Sira Thienou, 6'1" - Freshman (G) - This matchup features two talented "Diaper Dandy:" freshmen. Sira averages: 11.4 points; 5.0 rebounds; 1.6 assists, 2.0 steals, and one 3-pointer per game. Sarah's stats are somewhat gaudy: 15.4 points; 8.0 rebounds; 4.2 assists; 3.2 steals; and 2.0 blocks per game. Sarah also averages 1.6 three-pointers per game.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Ashlynn Shade, 5'10" - Sophomore (G) vs Kennedy Todd-Williams, 6'0" - Senior (G) - Kennedy is a stat-stuffer. Kennedy averages 10.6 points, 7.2 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 1.6 steals and 1.2 blocks per game. Ashlynn averages 8.0 points, 2.2 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 2.2 steals, and hits 1.6 three-pointers per game. Ashlynn may have some difficulty containing Kennedy.
ADVANTAGE - OLE MISS

Kaitlyn Chen, 5'9" - Graduate (G) vs KK Dean, 5'8" - Graduate - KK is another stat-stuffer...she is Ole Miss' top scorer averaging 13.2 points per game. She also contributes: 3.6 rebounds; 3.4 assists, 1.4 steals, and 2.4 three-pointers per game. Kaitlyn Chen averages 6.8 points, 1.8 rebounds, 3.8 assists; 1.4 steals. I think Kaitlyn may find it very difficult guarding and containing KK Dean and I wouldn't be surprised if we don't see the double KK matchup after a quick substitution. (We might even see a KK Arnord start in this one). I hope the announcers don't get confused KK Arnold vs KK Dean... Either way...this one is a tough match-up for UConn.
ADVANTAGE - OLE MISS

BENCH:

UConn will bring 24.1 points and 15.3 rebounds off the bench while Ole Miss will bring 24.4 points and 14.9 rebounds off the bench. Statistically both benches look pretty even...however, If Azzi Fudd, Jana, Allie, Morgan or Qadence should get hot that could change things in a hurry. However, on paper I am going to call this one. ADVANTAGE - EVEN

COACHING:

Geno, Chris, and the company are a crackerjack coaching team. Ole Miss also has a great coaching staff...but you can't argue with results...
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

INTANGIBLES:

Neutral site...no advantage there. Great coaching and we have Paige Bueckers and they don't. I beginning to think that the same will be said soon about Sarah Strong as well. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

UCONN - 72
OLE MISS - 67
MOV - 5

 

[JellyBean]

Coach Yo and her Ole Miss basketball program is nothing to take lightly. Great analysis. Coach Yo has done a lot of so little. She has Ole Miss playing scrappy, smart, basketball. They might not make the game easy but if you come out with the W, you will have earned that W. They bring the intensity. They get into your space on defense. If this game is close, I will not be surprised one big. This is a great test for Ice, Sarah, and Jana. Heck the whole team needs this test.

 

[Bone Dog]

Thanks again, @cferraro04!

What strikes me about Ole Miss is how deep and seemingly interchangeable their roster is. No super bigs but lots of big guards. No great scorers but lots of capable ones. No dominant rebounders or shot blockers but great team rebounding and decent team defense. They can put an entire lineup of 6 footers on the floor if they choose, though a couple of speedy little guards — Deans and Sadler — get lots of minutes.

They play intense defense with a lot of switching. So the matchups may not apply quite so well as in other games. I’d expect them to switch 1-4 much of the time. They also swarm the boards for offensive rebounds and get a lot of putbacks. They don’t rely much on perimeter shooting, and Deans takes and makes the most 3s. This is also partly why they can crash the boards so well. It may also make them vulnerable to our transition game. Geno can put too many ball handlers on the floor, more than they’ve seen so far.

I see the matchup advantages a little differently than you just generally. In the post, I think Jacobs will struggle against Ice and Jana. They are simply too big and strong for her. I suspect Iwuala will see more minutes as a result just to get more size on the court. Geno hasn’t looked to Ice and Jana to carry the scoring burden so far, but I think they’ll do well in this game.

I don’t think they have a matchup for Sarah. She is a major scoring talent inside and out. Scott has some size and quickness but isn’t strong enough to keep Sarah from scoring or rebounding. Neither is Todd-Williams, Thienou, Jacobs, or Thompson. Sarah is also a great defender and rebounder. I suspect the rebounding advantage Ole Miss has enjoyed will not materialize against our posts.

And of course there’s Paige. Scott may get stuck with this assignment and she has the length and quickness to cause Paige problems. She is a resourceful defender. But I doubt she’ll be able to stop Paige alone. And given their switching help defense, I expect Paige will be able to pick them apart with midrange shooting and passing. She has too many other scorers to simply stop her.

And given the lack of size in the post, I think we won’t have a problem contesting their perimeter shooting. I think this means Ash Kaitlyn and KK will outplay Deans and Sadler. An important task for them will be to help keep Ole Miss off the offensive boards. The only solution for a scrappy, opportunistic rebounding team is to be even scrappier and win all the 50-50 balls. I think KK and Ash in particular will be up to this task.

Finally, Azzi will be exceedingly difficult for them to cope with on both ends. Even if she hasn’t settled into her perimeter shot yet, she is a canny passer and a very capable defender both on-ball and as part of the team defensive scheme.

Geno has the main rotation rounding into excellent shape on offense and defense. I don’t think Ole Miss has seen anything like it so far. Coach Yo will have them playing intense in-your-face defense and getting after all the loose balls. In this respect, they may feel a bit like UNC though without the big posts. But that style of play is vulnerable to a good passing team and backdoor cuts. If Paige or Sarah or Ash can hit a few 3s in the first quarter, I expect everything will open up, and Geno runs enough screen plays to get Paige open in the midrange.

That said, I don’t think it will be possible to simply put Ole Miss away in the first half. They are scrappy enough to bounce back from early setbacks and will play hard until the end. We could win by 5 or by 25 or even lose by 3. It’s hard to call.

As a result, I suspect Geno will shorten the rotation, and Paige Sarah Ice and Azzi could well be on the court in the closing minutes. In fact it wouldn’t surprise me if Morgan is the only bench player to get any minutes. The core rotation of Paige Sarah Ice Kaitlyn KK and Ash are probably ready to play as many as 35 minutes each if they have to. Jana and Azzi may not play that much, but anything is possible. This 8 player roster looks pretty formidable and is likely what we’ll see against the ranked teams in December. This game may give us a preview of it.