Game Analysis - Game 5 - UConn vs Oregon State

[cferraro04]

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Looking forward to watching this game in hopes that Azzi will have shaken off some of the rust. It is only her 2nd game back...it is going to take some time...but, I expect to see her improving each game until she is back in form. This Oregon team really would have been pretty good had not Regan Beers transferred out. So far this season it hasn't been too pretty, they are 1 and 4 and they are only averaging 60.6 points while giving up 70.8 points per game...a pretty anemic offense...which won't bode well against UConn's potent offense. They are not as of yet a good three-point shooting team only averaging 4.4 threes per game. They turn the ball over frequently at a clip of 16.6 turnovers per game and in doing so they give up 18.2 points off turnovers. Thus far this season they have been somewhat unimpressive on defense only creating 10.0 turnovers off of 6.0 steals per game.

What Oregon does have going for it is it has a lot of experience they will start four seniors and one sophomore. Their bench is not that deep with three freshmen, one sophomore, one Jr., and one senior coming off the bench. They do have some good height in that they start 6'7", 6'5", 6'1", 6'0" and 5'10". The first three players off the bench are all guards at 5'10", 5'11", and 5'8". I think that Oregon State will have a difficult time playing an uptempo game that UConn is likely to present.

PLAYER ANALYSIS:

Ice Brady, 6'3" Sophomore vs Sela Heide, 6'7" Senior - Sela has good size and is capable of a double-double but will more than likely face difficulty in accomplishing that task against UConn's defense. Sela averages 10.6 points and 4.4 rebounds per game. Ice will have to keep Sela off the glass and depend on her speed and agility to finish around the basket. Ice averages 7.8 points and 3.8 rebounds per game. She also contributes in the offense by making some good passes and is averaging 2.0 assists per game. While statistically they are almost even I believe UConn's team defense is going to make it extremely difficult for Sela to hit her averages. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Sarah Strong, 6'2" Freshman vs Kelsey Rees, 6'5" Senior - Kelsey is a very good player who averages 10.2 points, 6.8 rebounds, and one block per game. She is capable of hitting a three if she is left open. But, I believe that Sarah Strong is getting more and more comfortable in the UConn offense with each game she plays. We saw her find her comfort zone with the three-ball last game. She is becoming quite the stat-stuffer and has a great all-around game. Sarah averages 16 points, 8.0 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 2.5 steals, and 2.0 blocks per game. She also knocks down 1.5 threes per game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Paige Bueckers, 6'0 senior vs A.J Marotte, 6'1" senior - A.J Marotti is a big guard so while she isn't much of a scoring threat averaging 8.4 points per game Paige's size is a good fit for this match-up. AJ also averages 3.6 rebounds and 3.6 assists per game. She also shoots approximately one three per game. If this is indeed the match-up AJ will probably be facing the best player she has ever played against. Paige is currently averaging a quiet 20.0 points, 5 rebounds, 4.3 assists, and 2.8 steals per game. And even though she is only averaging 2.0 three-pointers per game...you just know it is only a matter of time before she has an explosive night from the three. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Ashlynn Shade, 5'10" sophomore vs Catarina Ferreira, 6'0" senior - This should be an interesting match-up for Ashlynn. Catarina is a pretty good all-around player. Ashlynn will need to guard her close. Catarina averages 10.8 points, 6.4 rebounds, 1,8 assists, and 1.2 steals while hitting 1.0 three-pointers per game. Ashlynn is playing well this season but I believe she has not hit her stride yet. Ashlynn averages 8.5 points, 2.3 rebounds, 1.8 assists, and 1.2 steals per game. Ashlynn is hitting 1.5 three-pointers per game. While both Catarina and Ashlynn statistically are pretty close, I think Catarina is a stronger rebounder. Let's see if Ashlynn is successful in boxing her out and keeping her off the boards. ADVANTAGE - EVEN

Kaitlyn Chen, 5'9" graduate vs Kennedie Shuler, 5'10" sophomore - Kennedie is also a pretty good all-around player. Kennedie is averaging 10.6 points, 4.4 rebounds, 3.6 assists, and 1 steal per game. Kaitlyn is averaging 8.0 points, 2.3 rebounds, 4.5 assists, and 1.5 steals per game. These players are almost statistically identical. However, when you look at the difference in the competition each player has faced this season Kaitlyn is accomplishing her stats against stronger competition while she is on the floor with a better complimenting cast of players. It is going to be interesting to watch Kennedie chase Kaitlyn around...Kaitlyn is in constant motion, she never stops. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

BENCH:

UConn has the "X" factor on the bench, Azzi Fudd...when does she start hitting her stride...she came out of high school as the number one recruit in the land, so we know it is just a matter of time. Even without Fudd UConn will bring in 25.3 points and 15.4 rebounds off the bench...so anything that Azzi contributes will just be gravy. Oregon State will bring 10.6 points and 8.6 rebounds off the bench. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

COACHING:

Geno and Chris are the winningest coaches in the history of the game both men and women. They will be adding another win to their already unmatchable record. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

INTANGIBLES

The game will be played on a neutral court so there is no home-court advantage...but UConn is too quick, too talented, and too deep for Oregon State.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

UCONN - 95
OREGON STATE - 49
MOV - 46

 

[Bone Dog]

Thanks again, @cferraro04.

The interesting player from my perspective, is Ferreira. She’s long and athletic and is emerging as the the leading scorer on OSU. I wonder how Geno will approach defending her. Clearly any of his guards are capable, and I expect to see a lot of switching. But maybe Morgan will get more playing time just for this reason.

The two bigs look formidable but haven’t been able to assert themselves decisively so far this season. But they’ll be an interesting challenge for Ice and Jana anyway.

 

[Next 12]

cferraro04, I agree totally with your in depth posting. This years team hasn't kicked into high gear yet. So far, the consensus is this team is destined to be one of UCON's and GENO's best in a long time. There are SO MANY potential stars on this team that has the ability to score 20 or more points in a game that they will have a feeding frenzy in many games. The future is bright with clear sailing ahead. GENO and CHRIS are blessed this year. GO FRESHMEN!!! GO SOPHOMORES!!!! GO HUSKIES!!!!. Onward to N.O. 12 !

 

[Zarathustra]

I appreciate the great summary. 6'5" Kelsey Rees # 53 and 6'7" Sela Heidi # 32, by my
reconning, have averaged 45 minutes a game between them... so do they "spell" each other
and play 20 minutes EACH with some rare time on the floor together? or some other
combination of points. One game had Rees playing 38 minutes with Heidi playing 18. That's
a lot of time together on the court. Their point totals have been in the spread of a combined
16 - 24 points (averaging 21.8 point between them: 11.2 and 10.6 points respectively).
Not having watch any of OSU games... I'm guessing ICE and JANA continuing
their growth as a defensive pair, that UCONN will TAME THESE BIG BEAVERS! A.J. Marotte would
be an "X" factor if Paige were not more than adequate in that pairing. The difference overall:
UCONN's talent and UCONN's LONG, LONG bench. Oregon State has a short bench so
after we "run" them a bit on offense and "harass" them a lot on defense... This game could
be very painful for our foes from the Northwest. GO Ice! Go Jana! Make this a signature
breakout game. Otherwise: Everybody Eats!!

 

[caseyb7]

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Looking forward to watching this game in hopes that Azzi will have shaken off some of the rust. It is only her 2nd game back...it is going to take some time...but, I expect to see her improving each game until she is back in form. This Oregon team really would have been pretty good had not Regan Beers transferred out. So far this season it hasn't been too pretty, they are 1 and 4 and they are only averaging 60.6 points while giving up 70.8 points per game...a pretty anemic offense...which won't bode well against UConn's potent offense. They are not as of yet a good three-point shooting team only averaging 4.4 threes per game. They turn the ball over frequently at a clip of 16.6 turnovers per game and in doing so they give up 18.2 points off turnovers. Thus far this season they have been somewhat unimpressive on defense only creating 10.0 turnovers off of 6.0 steals per game.

What Oregon does have going for it is it has a lot of experience they will start four seniors and one sophomore. Their bench is not that deep with three freshmen, one sophomore, one Jr., and one senior coming off the bench. They do have some good height in that they start 6'7", 6'5", 6'1", 6'0" and 5'10". The first three players off the bench are all guards at 5'10", 5'11", and 5'8". I think that Oregon State will have a difficult time playing an uptempo game that UConn is likely to present.

PLAYER ANALYSIS:

Ice Brady, 6'3" Sophomore vs Sela Heide, 6'7" Senior - Sela has good size and is capable of a double-double but will more than likely face difficulty in accomplishing that task against UConn's defense. Sela averages 10.6 points and 4.4 rebounds per game. Ice will have to keep Sela off the glass and depend on her speed and agility to finish around the basket. Ice averages 7.8 points and 3.8 rebounds per game. She also contributes in the offense by making some good passes and is averaging 2.0 assists per game. While statistically they are almost even I believe UConn's team defense is going to make it extremely difficult for Sela to hit her averages. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Sarah Strong, 6'2" Freshman vs Kelsey Rees, 6'5" Senior - Kelsey is a very good player who averages 10.2 points, 6.8 rebounds, and one block per game. She is capable of hitting a three if she is left open. But, I believe that Sarah Strong is getting more and more comfortable in the UConn offense with each game she plays. We saw her find her comfort zone with the three-ball last game. She is becoming quite the stat-stuffer and has a great all-around game. Sarah averages 16 points, 8.0 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 2.5 steals, and 2.0 blocks per game. She also knocks down 1.5 threes per game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Paige Bueckers, 6'0 senior vs A.J Marotte, 6'1" senior - A.J Marotti is a big guard so while she isn't much of a scoring threat averaging 8.4 points per game Paige's size is a good fit for this match-up. AJ also averages 3.6 rebounds and 3.6 assists per game. She also shoots approximately one three per game. If this is indeed the match-up AJ will probably be facing the best player she has ever played against. Paige is currently averaging a quiet 20.0 points, 5 rebounds, 4.3 assists, and 2.8 steals per game. And even though she is only averaging 2.0 three-pointers per game...you just know it is only a matter of time before she has an explosive night from the three. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Ashlynn Shade, 5'10" sophomore vs Catarina Ferreira, 6'0" senior - This should be an interesting match-up for Ashlynn. Catarina is a pretty good all-around player. Ashlynn will need to guard her close. Catarina averages 10.8 points, 6.4 rebounds, 1,8 assists, and 1.2 steals while hitting 1.0 three-pointers per game. Ashlynn is playing well this season but I believe she has not hit her stride yet. Ashlynn averages 8.5 points, 2.3 rebounds, 1.8 assists, and 1.2 steals per game. Ashlynn is hitting 1.5 three-pointers per game. While both Catarina and Ashlynn statistically are pretty close, I think Catarina is a stronger rebounder. ADVANTAGE - EVEN

Kaitlyn Chen, 5'9" graduate vs Kennedie Shuler, 5'10" sophomore - Kennedie is also a pretty good all-around player. Kennedie is averaging 10.6 points, 4.4 rebounds, 3.6 assists, and 1 steal per game. Kaitlyn is averaging 8.0 points, 2.3 rebounds, 4.5 assists, and 1.5 steals per game. These players are almost statistically identical. However, when you look at the difference in the competition each player has faced this season Kaitlyn is accomplishing her stats against stronger competition while she is on the floor with a better complimenting cast of players. It is going to be interesting to watch Kennedie chase Kaitlyn around...Kaitlyn is in constant motion, she never stops. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

BENCH:

UConn has the "X" factor on the bench, Azzi Fudd...when does she start hitting her stride...she came out of high school as the number one recruit in the land, so we know it is just a matter of time. Even without Fudd UConn will bring in 25.3 points and 15.4 rebounds off the bench...so anything that Azzi contributes will just be gravy. Oregon State will bring 10.6 points and 8.6 rebounds off the bench. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

COACHING:

Geno and Chris are the winningest coaches in the history of the game both men and women. They will be adding another win to their already unmatchable record. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

INTANGIBLES

The game will be played on a neutral court so there is no home-court advantage...but UConn is too quick, too talented, and too deep for Oregon State.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

UCONN - 95
OREGON STATE - 49
MOV - 46

Thank you.

One of my favorite threads which I look forward to.

You, and the responders typically teach me a lot and make viewing the coming game more enjoyable.

Good on ya.

 

[FormerCTrez]

UCONN — 94
Oregon State — 50
MOV —44

 

[oldude]

I really feel badly for Scott Rueck and his alma mater. He had developed an excellent WBB program at OSU, only to have it devastated by the combination of conference realignment, liberal transfer rules and NIL deals. After last season, OSU lost 8 players to the transfer portal and were left standing when the music stopped in the “musical chairs” of conference realignment to end up in the WCC as the PAC-12 folded.

 

[PacoSwede]

I really feel badly for Scott Rueck and his alma mater. He had developed an excellent WBB program at OSU, only to have it devastated by the combination of conference realignment, liberal transfer rules and NIL deals. After last season, OSU lost 8 players to the transfer portal and were left standing in the “musical chairs” of conference realignment to end up in the WCC as the PAC-12 folded.

100% right on. it dramatically alters the sport and is gonna hurt a lot of teams while supercharging a handful. this fan isn't gonna like it -- if i live that long or decide to drop the sport entirely. i fear there will be much more enjoyable ways to spend my time.

i'm particularly angry -- disgusted -- by the football obsession that's behind the conference confusion. p.s. NIL at least benefits the players!

 

[cferraro04]

UCONN — 94
Oregon State — 50
MOV —44

You might want to carry this post over to the Prognostication thread...I hate for you to miss out on the action because you may have posted your prognostication on the wrong thread.

 

[cferraro04]

I appreciate the great summary. 6'5" Kelsey Rees # 53 and 6'7" Sela Heidi # 32, by my
reconning, have averaged 45 minutes a game between them... so do they "spell" each other
and play 20 minutes EACH with some rare time on the floor together? or some other
combination of points. One game had Rees playing 38 minutes with Heidi playing 18. That's
a lot of time together on the court. Their point totals have been in the spread of a combined
16 - 24 points (averaging 21.8 point between them: 11.2 and 10.6 points respectively).
Not having watch any of OSU games... I'm guessing ICE and JANA continuing
their growth as a defensive pair, that UCONN will TAME THESE BIG BEAVERS! A.J. Marotte would
be an "X" factor if Paige were not more than adequate in that pairing. The difference overall:
UCONN's talent and UCONN's LONG, LONG bench. Oregon State has a short bench so
after we "run" them a bit on offense and "harass" them a lot on defense... This game could
be very painful for our foes from the Northwest. GO Ice! Go Jana! Make this a signature
breakout game. Otherwise: Everybody Eats!!

In the 5 games played thus far this season, Kelsey Rees and Sela Heide have started together 4 times. It would be interesting to see our two bigs and their two bigs on the floor simultaneously. I am reminded of an ole' time jingle, "our two bigs are better than your two bigs"

 

[cferraro04]

I really feel badly for Scott Rueck and his alma mater. He had developed an excellent WBB program at OSU, only to have it devastated by the combination of conference realignment, liberal transfer rules and NIL deals. After last season, OSU lost 8 players to the transfer portal and were left standing in the “musical chairs” of conference realignment to end up in the WCC as the PAC-12 folded.

I remember being shocked to hear that the PAC 12 was disbanding. I agree with PacoSwede...football unfortunately controls the fate of future conference alignments. The ole' axiom applies..."follow the money".

 

[Dugway]

I remember being shocked to hear that the PAC 12 was disbanding. I agree with PacoSwede...football unfortunately controls the fate of future conference alignments. The ole' axiom applies..."follow the money".

Completely agree with you. Technically it has not disbanded, it has just become the PAC-2! And next year they are adding a bunch of mid-majors, but yes, for all practical purposes the conference will not ever be of the Major Leagues again.

 

[YKCornelius]

Oregon State right now is in a struggle to figure things out. In the first two games, against undersized opponents, they had success bringing the ball into their bigs. Then they played three straight games against teams with quality size, and the OSU bigs struggled mightily. Couple that with the guards having poor success shooting the three, the last three games have been blowouts.

Even though this team is chocked full of seniors, only two (Marotte and Rees) of the seven who receive quality minutes have significant game experience with each other prior to this year.

This is not a fast team, nor is it built to play catch-up. Based on their last two games where it seems evident that Coach Rueck emphasized keeping a core group of players on the floor to get used to playing with each other, I would expect more of the same against the Huskies. I further expect OSU to maintain a deliberate offensive scheme despite the score.

Although I think this will be over by half time (maybe after the first quarter), I also expect Gino to use the bench quite a bit in the second half to keep legs fresh for the next game. More importantly, I expect him to be running a lot of half court offense through the Huskies' bigs in the second half to get them ready for the ranked opponents down the road.

 

[FormerCTrez]

You might want to carry this post over to the Prognostication thread...I hate for you to miss out on the action because you may have posted your prognostication on the wrong thread.

Oh thank you so much for catching my mistake.

 

[cabbie191]

I really feel badly for Scott Rueck and his alma mater. He had developed an excellent WBB program at OSU, only to have it devastated by the combination of conference realignment, liberal transfer rules and NIL deals. After last season, OSU lost 8 players to the transfer portal and were left standing when the music stopped in the “musical chairs” of conference realignment to end up in the WCC as the PAC-12 folded.

Agreed - Oregon State got as badly screwed (well, almost as badly screwed) as UConn with conference realignment.

 

[cabbie191]

100% right on. it dramatically alters the sport and is gonna hurt a lot of teams while supercharging a handful. this fan isn't gonna like it -- if i live that long or decide to drop the sport entirely. i fear there will be much more enjoyable ways to spend my time.

i'm particularly angry -- disgusted -- by the football obsession that's behind the conference confusion. p.s. NIL at least benefits the players!

This is true about NIL but like all things that have positive sides, there is also a dark side.

I'm delighted that Paige and other UConn players are benefitting from this, and like it even better if it helps keep them on the roster for extra years.

On the other hand, PacoSwede, how do you feel about Michigan getting a QB to switch his commitment from LSU by offering him $10 million?

 

[PacoSwede]

This is true about NIL but like all things that have positive sides, there is also a dark side.

I'm delighted that Paige and other UConn players are benefitting from this, and like it even better if it helps keep them on the roster for extra years.

On the other hand, PacoSwede, how do you feel about Michigan getting a QB to switch his commitment from LSU by offering him $10 million?

yeah, dark side. dark side of power structure. money rules and certain types of people are solely concerned molding everything into a way to benefit themselves. they ain't most people, but they grab the power.

puts players the middle at times. many pay the price in this world. we serfs don't have any control over the system and must accept what we're handed by the high honchos.