Game Analysis - Game 24 - UConn vs Tennessee

[Bone Dog]

I've only watched a few of their games, but there isn't an offensive flow. From what I've seen, dribble, dribble, dribble... shoot. Try to get the offensive rebound.

This is what I think too. As @HopJim observed above, they do run high screens and resemble Geno's offense a little. The thing is, in the games I've seen, they don't typically run it very well. This may be from lack of patience and (as you say) because they think they can just get the O-board to clean it up.

My guess is they'll get O-boards against UConn. The question is whether they'll convert enough of them. They haven't managed it against tougher opponents. Against Texas, they shot pretty well but were heavily out rebounded. Same against Vandy. Against SC, they led in O-boards, but hardly converted any of them. Similar story against Mizzou.

In her postgame interview, Caldwell said something revealing, that unless they get defensive stops, they can't really get into their offense. In effect, she's saying they don't think in terms of relying on a half court offense and aren't comfortable having to do so.

 

[Rb335]

I won’t be surprised if this is a close game. This Tennessee team has a tendency to play to the level of their competition, in both a good and bad way. They’ve played 3 of the current top 10 teams and lost by single digits each time. But they’ve also had close games against a team like Missouri. They’ve lost 5 games by a total of 15 points. Nobody has blown them out all year.

I think Uconn is more disciplined and works the ball to get better shots more consistently. Tennessee has an athleticism advantage and should win the boards. Can UConn take care of the ball enough that their superior shooting % prevails? That’s the key to me.

It’s also worth noting that Tennessee routinely steps on the gas and can flip a game in the late stages. Even having a 20 point lead after 30 minutes isn’t always safe. They tend to claw their way back with scramble defense and the transition 3 ball.

 

[Surly1]

Given how Tennessee changes its starters and lineups (Spear didn't start today), individual match-ups tell you very little about how this game will play out.

Tennessee is an undisciplined hot mess but will be very dangerous if UConn turns the ball over and doesn't limit Tennessee's offensive rebounds and second-chance points. UConn takes pretty good care of the ball (10.5 turnovers/game) but is not a good rebounding team.

When Tennessee is forced to play half-court defense, opponents have had decent success scoring against them.

As UConnCat pointed out in her post, UT is more a sum of its parts. They can be extremely undisciplined, and their strategy is not so much executing their game plan, but speeding up opponents, disrupting them from playing their preferred style of play, leading to turnovers and a frenetic pace which favors the Lady Vols.

Teams that are disciplined and can run with them (Oklahoma & SC) were able to counter UT's full-court press effectiveness. UConn has a plethora of ball handlers and shooters that can make the Vols pay handsomely.

The saving grace for UT is playing in front of a home crowd, and exploiting UConn on the offensive boards and taking a volume of 3-pt shots. If UT is making their 3-pt shots, the game will be close. However, UConn has too many weapons to score against their suspect half-court defense.

It will be like a schoolyard game, but I'm fully confident UConn will prevail, and I expect the "real" Paige Bueckers to show, along with Azzi, and the too much to handle Sarah Strong (Joyce Edwards torched UT). This game is perfectly suited for Kaitlyn Chen to shine, and I expect a number of pull-up midrange jumpers from Ashlynn Shade.

 

[SLY63]

This game really scares me for 3 reasons. TN's strengths are...

Rebounding (particularly Offensive)
3 Point Shooting
Getting Turnovers

We are not very good at stopping the #1 and #2 and haven't been tested on #3.

And I agree with the comment above, you can't judge TN by a player by player matchup. Their team +intangibles is greater than the sum of the parts.

IMO these factors make this game a Pick'em.

 

[BBallF]

GENERAL COMMENTS:

"A game of consequence", a resurrected rivalry, a battle of two juggernauts...no matter how you describe this match-up anytime UConn and Tennessee meet in a women's college basketball game it conjures up a variety of emotions depending on when you become a fan of the sport. For me...my mind immediately goes back to watching Diana punch the orange padding and responding when asked that "she just wanted to punch something orange". Then I think about Jen Rizzotti stealing the basketball and dribbling the length of the court late in that iconic game where UConn beat Tennessee. There are many more memories including the complaint Tennessee filed in 2006 with the Southeastern Conference claiming 8 incidents involving 11 NCAA rules violations, resulting in only one violation. No matter how many years have passed or how many coach changes the Tennessee women's basketball program has been through, it doesn't matter...this is a game we Huskie fans hate to lose.

This year's version of the Tennessee Volunteers is a very talented team that started the season 13 and 0. Their only losses come from ranked teams. It won't be easy playing in Knoxville where we have seen numerous games over the years where sizable deficits have been overcome in the last 4 minutes of the game. Without getting into officiating...let's just say if UConn wants to win...they must bring their A-game, they must be up double digits going into the last 4 minutes of the game and they must never think the game is over until the final buzzer.

This game will give Geno and his staff much-needed data points going forward as they prepare for playing South Carolina on their home court as well as Geno and his coaching staff prepare for the march to the postseason.

Statistically, a couple of things stand out to me about Tennessee as a team. They are 2nd in the nation for points scored in a game with 91.9 points. They are a good rebounding team averaging 42.3 rebounds per game. They score an amazing 32.1 points off of turnovers after forcing an impressive 24.2 turnovers from their opponents. Finally, UConn must be careful with the basketball as Tennessee averages 13 steals per game. Finally, if UConn is to employ the "cut off the head of the snake" strategy then they must limit Talasia Cooper's impact on the game.

RPI / SOS:

Tennessee's RPI - 28
Tennessee's Opponents RPI - 1, 4, 6, 20. 24, 26, 32, 33, 55, 61, 65, 94, 98, 218, 223, 255, 260, 269, 291, 310

UConn's RPI - 6
UConn's Opponents RPI - 7, 8, 13, 15, 17, 30, 43, 51, 51, 53, 54, 75, 75, 95, 102, 107, 113, 115, 122, 131, 161, 183, 268

Tennessee's SoS - 21
Tennessee's Opponents SoS - 1, 8, 11, 22, 25, 29, 43, 54, 65, 66, 80, 101, 108, 118, 119, 120, 175, 213, 331, 361

UConn's SoS - 14
UConn's Opponents SoS - 7, 9, 9, 17, 19, 23, 23, 28, 32, 33, 49, 51, 58, 59, 98, 120, 125, 157, 159, 193, 240, 348

PLAYER MINUTE AVERAGES:

Tennessee - Tilasia Cooper (23.8); Ruby Whitehorn (24.0); Jewel Spear (24.5); Samara Spencer (24.8); Zee Spearman (19.8); Tess Darby (16.2); Sara Puckett (17.2); Alyssa Latham (13.8); Keniya Boyd (16.3); Jillian Hollinshead (14.8); Avery Strictland (6.1); Favor Ayodele (6.2).

UConn - Paige Bueckers (29.0); Sarah Strong (28.1); Azzi Fudd (22.3); Ashlynn Shade (23.0); Kaitlyn Chen (24.1); KK Arnold (21.7); Jana El-Alfy (15.8); Ice Brady (17.0); Allie Ziebell (10.2); Morgan Cheli (13.3); Aubrey Griffin (11.7); Qadence Samuels (7.2).


PLAYER MATCH-UPS:

Jana El-Alfy, 6'5" - RS-Freshman - Center vs Zee Spearman, 6'4" - Junior - Forward - Zee will be a huge test for Jana...how will Jana handle her physicality both defensively and offensively? Zee averages 10.9 points, 6.1 rebounds, and .8 steals. Zee can shoot the three-point shot. She averages .65 threes per game. Jana averages 5.7 points, 5.7 rebounds, 1 assist, and.5 steals per game. Zee has scored 18 points twice this year and has scored double digits 11 times. Jana plays 15.8 minutes per game as opposed to Zee's 19.8 minutes. Ice Brady picks up 17 minutes while averaging 4.1 points, 3.1 rebounds, 2 assists, and .7 steals per game. First off the bench to give Zee a break is 6'5" Jillian Hollinshead who averages 14.8 minutes, 3.1 points, and 2.9 rebounds. Based on the experience of Zee and Jillian vs Jana and Ice as well as their superiority statistically... ADVANTAGE - TENNESSEE

Sarah Strong, 6'2" - Freshman - Forward vs Ruby Whitehorn, 6'0" - Junior - Guard - Ruby averages 13.5 points, 4.6 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.1 steals, and hits .8 three-pointers per game. Sarah is averaging 17 points, 7.8 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 2.3 steals, and 1.3 blocks per game. Sarah also hits 1.65 three-pointers per game. Sarah does not play like a freshman. She will not get rattled and as long as she stays out of foul trouble and can stay on the floor she should prevail. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Paige Bueckers, 6'0" - RS-Senior - Guard vs Tilasia Cooper, 6'0" RS-Sophomore - Guard - Whoa! This is the marquee match-up in this game. Tilasia has scored a season-high 33 points. She is Tennessee's go-to player, she does it all. She is averaging 17.5 points, 5.9 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 3.2 steals, and .8 blocks per game. She also averages 1.0 three-pointers per game. Paige will have to stay out of foul trouble. UConn will need Paige to stay in the game. Her defense against Tilasia will be crucial. Paige averages 19.0 points, 4.2 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 2.0 steals, and .5 blocks per game. Paige also averages 1.9 three-pointers per game. Both Tilasia and Paige are capable of impacting the game in a big way. It will come down to which one of them will be able to impose their will on the game. Let's hope the referees let the players decide the game.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Azzi Fudd, 5'11" - Graduate - Guard vs Jewel Spear 5'10" Graduate - Guard - Jewel and Azzi are sharp-shooting snipers. They are both great three-point shooters. Even though we are still somewhat early in Azzi's comeback from her injury I believe that she is the better long-range assassin. Jewell averages 12.3 points, 2.8 rebounds, 5.6 assists, 1.4 steals, and she hits 2.7 three-pointers per game. With Jewel averaging 5.7 assists per game it would be fair to say that Tennessee's offense goes through her. Azzi averages 11.3 points, 2.0 rebounds, 1.8 assists, .8 steals, and she hits 2.0 three-pointers per game. Fudd plays 22.3 minutes per game while Jewel plays 24.5 minutes per game. Jewel's high game this season is 28 points. Her high games are 28, 25, 20, 18, 18. She has hit 6 threes in two games. Azzi's high game was 23 points, she has scored 23, 21, 18, 18, 17 points. Her best three-point games are: 5, 4, 4, 4. ADVANTAGE - EVEN

Kaitlyn Chen, 5'9" - Graduate - Guard vs Samara Spencer, 5'7" - Senior - Guard - Samara is scoring point guard. She averages 11.2 points, 3.9 rebounds, .7 assists, and hits 2.25 three-pointers per game. Kaitlyn is averaging 6.7 points, 1.8 rebounds, 3.7 assists, and 1.0 steals per game. Kaitlyn has been shooting threes better these past few games but on the season she is averaging .73 three-pointers per game.
ADVANTAGE - TENNESSEE

BENCH:

Tennessee brings 31.5 points and 16.3 rebounds off the bench. UConn brings 27.3 points and 15.8 rebounds off the bench.
ADVANTAGE - EVEN

INTANGIBLES:

Playing Tennessee in Knoxville, officiating, rivalry game where both teams and audiences will be up for the game.
ADVANTAGE - TENNESSEE

COACHING:

Tennessee has had 5 coaching changes since Geno has been with UConn. The consistency and the experience on the UConn bench should be enough to call. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

SCORE:

UConn - 82
Tennessee - 76
MOV - 6

Your pre- game analyses are always comprehensive, enjoyable, thoughtful and well researched. I had the "eye test" when they played Iowa at Barclay's. This game only depends on 2 things, breaking the press and shooting well from the arc. They are long, physical and press all game but they beat Iowa by their defense and the fact that Lucy Olsen had foul trouble and they couldn't bring it up. They didn't have a KC or a KK or a Paige. Also Iowa missed several layups and put backs in crunch time. Not happening with Sarah. If Paige leads the way, I see a solid win.

 

[Geew1992]

This game really scares me for 3 reasons. TN's strengths are...

Rebounding (particularly Offensive)
3 Point Shooting
Getting Turnovers

We are not very good at stopping the #1 and #2 and haven't been tested on #3.

And I agree with the comment above, you can't judge TN by a player by player matchup. Their team +intangibles is greater than the sum of the parts.

IMO these factors make this game a Pick'em.

Their 3 point shooting average is 33%. Uconn 37%.

 

[JoePgh]

Let me quote a comment on VolNation -- it's the only one that I have seen so far about the UConn game, and it was tacked on to the Missouri game thread (with no apology for thread drift!). The poster said:

Connecticut will probably press for 40 minutes. And they ALWAYS have one player who miraculously comes out of nowhere to have the shooting performance of her career.

Of course, the poster is referring to Lou Lopez-Senechal going off for a 3-point barrage in the last game in Knoxville, and perhaps also to Azzi's 7-for-9 3-point shooting performance in Hartford three years ago (?). So it appears that UConn is already bringing out some Cassandra voices on that message board, which is just fine.

It's fun to think of who (in a national flag blue uniform) MIGHT have an unexpected great game. I can think of several not-totally-crazy possibilities -- maybe Jana will have 14 points, 10 rebounds, and 4 blocks? Maybe Ashlynn will have 25 points from all three levels of the court? Maybe Aubrey will guard Talaysia Cooper for 20 minutes, and shut her down before fouling her out?

Or, maybe, Qadence will play 15 minutes, score 10 points, get 5 rebounds, and have 4 or 5 steals? Her skill set is perfect for this game and this opponent -- she can answer chaos with chaos, and serve the chaos back to the opponent.

Obviously, any good minutes that Aubrey and Qadence can contribute will help to preserve the stamina of the mainstay players in UConn's rotation.

 

[SLY63]

Their 3 point shooting average is 33%. Uconn 37%.

Good point, but everyone tends to shoot above their average against us.

 

[Bone Dog]

Let me quote a comment on VolNation --

Excellent post! It’s a good corrective for the hypercritical eye we tend to focus on our Huskies. Paige & Co. look scary to other teams and their fans… as they ought.

 

[packwrap]

Can't wait for this game. These recent 2 weeks have been full of great games across ncaa!

Fortunately, we have our own press. That means at least we have been practicing against it. Tenn press vulnerable to long passes over the top to Sarah/Aubrey. No matter how it goes, Tenn will press entire game. It's all they know this year.

Jana/Ice will play for sure. Geno very committed to their development and this is a huge learning moment. Might be less minutes than usual though.

The Caldwell 'press and 3' all about math. They want 20+ turnovers, 20+ threes, win rebounding and 20 more shots attempts than opponent. So far only TX blew up the math. Let's see the Huskies also mess up the press.

UConn can win, and it will be a fun game to watch.