Game Analysis - Game 24 - UConn vs Providence -2nd Act

[cferraro04]

GENERAL COMMENTS:

This is the 2nd meeting between these two teams, with the first one being on 12/29/2024. A quick perusal of the stats the first time around gave one reason to suspect that the game would be played in the high 60s to mid-70s. That is exactly what happened with UConn prevailing 67 to 41. While a 26 MOV would seem significant I believe that the potential for an even higher MOV is possible. Now after hearing that Geno lit into the team after the Tennessee loss I have no doubts that UConn will win by a much higher MOV. Providence is not a high-scoring team they are among the lowest-scoring teams in women's NCAA Division One with a total point average of 56.9. UConn on the other hand is a high-scoring team averaging 80.9 points per game. The MOV in the first game was 2 points higher than the average margin of difference between their two per-game scoring averages of 24. However, given the time of the year, Geno's latest critique of the team's performance, and the overall innate talent of this team...I fully expect to see an MOV somewhere between 35 and 45 points.

Except for the substitution of Scarlett MacKayle for Kylee Sheppard, not much has changed concerning the Providence line-up. Providence starts with three graduate students and two seniors. They are loaded with experienced leadership. Their starting line-up is 6'3", 6'1", 6'0", 5'11", and 5'9" while, UConn starts 6'5", 6'2", 6'0", 5'11, and 5'9". Grace Ofosa is their best player averaging 14.1 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 1.7 assists. Providence's RPI is 175 and its SoS is 69. UConn on the other hand has a respectable RPI of 6 and an SoS of 10.

In the first match-up, Providence's starters played the following minutes:

Efosa Grace - 36 minutes and had 11 points, 7 rebounds;
Olivia Olsen - 27 minutes and had 8 points and 11 rebounds;
Marta Morales-Romero - 24 minutes and had 5 points and 2 rebounds;
Brynn Farrell - 31 minutes and had 4 points and 4 rebounds;
Kylee Sheppard played 13 minutes and had 0 points and 1 rebound:
Mackayle Scarlett who started in the last 9 games averaged 18 minutes and had 1 point and 1 rebound.

UConn's starters from the last match-up meanwhile played the following minutes:

Paige Bueckers - 27 minutes and had 23 points and 4 rebounds;
Sarah Strong - 29 minutes and had 14 points and 2 rebounds;
Azzi Fudd - 24 minutes and had 8 points and zero rebounds;
Kaitlyn Chen - 25 minutes and had 4 points and 2 rebounds;
Jana El-Alfy - 9 minutes and had 2 points and 2 rebounds.

In the first match-up, it should be mentioned that UConn got 40 points off turnovers while Providence only got 11. Providence shot 13 for 15 from the line for 86.7 percent while UConn shot 8 for 11 for 72.7 percent. UConn took a lot of threes in that game and only hit 7 of them for 24.1 percent while Providence shot 2 for 15 from three for 13.3 percent. UConn had 16 points off the bench while Providence had 13.

PLAYER MATCH UPs:

Jana El-Alfy, 6'5" - RS-Freshman - Center vs Olivia Olsen, 6'3" - Senior - Forward - Olivia averages 10.1 points, 8.3 rebounds, 1.1 assists, .7 steals, and 1.4 blocks per game. Jana is averaging 5.6 points, 5.1 rebounds, 1.0 assists. 5 steals, and .7 blocks per game. In the first match-up Olivia played well and Jana played poorly. ADVANTAGE - PROVIDENCE

Sarah Strong, 6'2" - Freshman - Forward vs Marta Morales-Romero, 6'1" - Senior - Guard / Forward - Marta averages 6.7 points, 3.2 rebounds, 1.3 assists, .5 steals, and hits 1.4 three-pointers per game. Sarah is averaging 17.1 points, 7.8 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 2.3 steals, 1.4 blocks, and hits 1.6 three-pointers per game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Paige Bueckers, 6'0" - RS-Senior - Guard vs Grace Efosa, 5'11" - Graduate - Guard - Great match-up between each team's best players. Grace averages 14.1 points, 4.5 rebounds, 1.7 assists, .8 steals, and.64 three-points per game. Paige is averaging 18.7 points, 4.2 rebounds, 4.4 assists, 2.0 steals, .5 blocks, and 1.9 three-pointers per game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Azzi Fudd, 5'11" - Graduate - Guard vs Brynn Farrell, 6'0" - Graduate - Guard - Brynn averages 8.2 points, 3.5 rebounds, 1.3 assists, .5 steals, and hits .72 three-pointers per game. Azzi averages 11.2 points, 2.0 rebounds, 1.8 assists, .9 steals, and hits 2 three-pointers per game.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Kaitlyn Chen, 5'9" - Graduate - Guard vs MacKayla Scarlett, 5'10" - Graduate - Guard - MacKayla averages 4.0 points, 1.8 rebounds, .7 steals, and hits .8 three-pointers per game. Kaitlyn is averaging 6.5 points, 1.8 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 1 steal, and hits .71 three-pointers per game.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

BENCH:

UConn will bring 26.2 points and 11.7 rebounds off the bench. Providence will bring 18.3 points and 11.4 rebounds off the bench.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

INTANGIBLES:

UConn is coming off a stinging loss to Tennessee, one that Geno is sure to not let them forget. I don't think Providence's home crowd and gym will be enough of an advantage to offset UConn's size, talent, and motivation. To be clear, I don't think anybody would want to be UConn's opponent in this game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

COACHING:

Geno and staff have made it clear that UConn must play better in this final stretch. They have all the ammunition they need to motivate UConn to play inspired basketball and I am very confident that they will get the job done in a big way. They now see the South Carolina game as essential to their route to the national championship. As a result, I expect to see a renewed sense of urgency from the UConn players.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

SCORE:

UConn - 92
Providence - 45
MOV - 47

 

[Centerstream]

Appreciate the previous game's matchup info. Hopefully our starting five, except Jana, will play comparable minutes this time around but with Sarah and Azzi also reaching the 20 point mark. For Jana, with Ice out, she should double her minutes and scoring. This time around, Aubrey is available to really impact this game if Jana is on the bench.

 

[Bone Dog]

Excellent analysis, Sensei!

I'm right there with you on the MoV and the final score. I think our girls will be "big mad" after Tennessee -- at least I hope so. I think the defense will be ratcheted up to level eleven. As for shooting accuracy, there's no telling. I'd like to see Azzi and Ash shoot lights out from 3. But either way, I expect Paige and Sarah to punish the Friars with back door cuts.

I also want to see KK, Kaitlyn, and Ash to shut down Grace Efosa. They can do it... and if they don't have the motivation now, when will they ever? Last game they forced 31 turnovers and got 17 steals. I'm not sure they can improve on that by much, but I'd like to see it.

But beyond the main players getting back on track, this is also a game in which some of the newer parts could establish themselves. I mean Jana, Morgan and Aubrey. This game could be the moment for them to figure out exactly how they can take control of the game while they're on the floor.

 

[ERWUC65]

Excellent analysis, Sensei!

I'm right there with you on the MoV and the final score. I think our girls will be "big mad" after Tennessee -- at least I hope so. I think the defense will be ratcheted up to level eleven. As for shooting accuracy, there's no telling. I'd like to see Azzi and Ash shoot lights out from 3. But either way, I expect Paige and Sarah to punish the Friars with back door cuts.

I also want to see KK, Kaitlyn, and Ash to shut down Grace Efosa. They can do it... and if they don't have the motivation now, when will they ever? Last game they forced 31 turnovers and got 17 steals. I'm not sure they can improve on that by much, but I'd like to see it.

But beyond the main players getting back on track, this is also a game in which some of the newer parts could establish themselves. I mean Jana, Morgan and Aubrey. This game could be the moment for them to figure out exactly how they can take control of the game while they're on the floor.

What does it accomplish by beating up on Providence? We know Paige, Sarah and Azzi can go for 60 against this level competition. I would bench the starters for at least the first half and play Aubrey, Ash, Jana, Morgan, KC with spots for Allie and Q. Might be an even match and toughen them up. Let them stay in as long as the game is close and put the starters back in for the 4th quarter. I hope no one cares about their stats anymore.

 

[Bone Dog]

What does it accomplish by beating up on Providence?

Is this a real question? Practice and training is all about repetition. The remaining games, other than the one against SC, are about getting reps. The more the better. And as always, I worry as much about a team peaking too early in the season as about one not peaking at all. The loss to Tennessee showed that we haven't peaked yet. But it also means there's work to be done to get to that peak, and time to do it in.

 

[ERWUC65]

Is this a real question? Practice and training is all about repetition. The remaining games, other than the one against SC, are about getting reps. The more the better. And as always, I worry as much about a team peaking too early in the season as about one not peaking at all. The loss to Tennessee showed that we haven't peaked yet. But it also means there's work to be done to get to that peak, and time to do it in.

As Alan Iverson would say "Practice?". Supposedly the team 'practiced' against the boys running the TN press and you saw how much that helped. We're about to play the 25th game and we need more reps to get better? The team is not going to get more athletic or tall or fast, it is what it is. And... the team by now has BB smarts, so it's a mind game now. Play how you were taught with toughness, confidence, perseverance and tenacity and get a positive mental attitude. I think we have had enough practice and training.

 

[cferraro04]

As Alan Iverson would say "Practice?". Supposedly the team 'practiced' against the boys running the TN press and you saw how much that helped. We're about to play the 25th game and we need more reps to get better? The team is not going to get more athletic or tall or fast, it is what it is. And... the team by now has BB smarts, so it's a mind game now. Play how you were taught with toughness, confidence, perseverance and tenacity and get a positive mental attitude. I think we have had enough practice and training.

While I loved Alan Iveson's game I wouldn't prescribe to his work ethic when it came to practice nor would I quote him in that regard. Your observation that the girls practiced against boys who simulated the TN press was good until you asked how much it helped them while comparing their practice to Iveson's aversion towards practice. UConn's preparation for TN's press did help them a lot as they made the storied Tennessee press seem almost ineffective at times. Please don't get me wrong there were a few short minutes where UConn's focus waivered and the TN press was extremely effective but for the most part, UConn did a masterful job of handling TN's press.

I also think you misunderstand Bone Dog's comments. It is the final run-up to the post-season. Our rotation needs to be set, we don't need any more experimentation. Our coaching staff has seen enough this season to determine what our rotation will be. Our starters need to start playing starters minutes. I am talking about 29 to 35 minutes. When we get into the final three rounds we will need them on the floor. Our rotation should be down to about 8 maybe 9 players (given our depth), however, our coaching staff should know who the first 3 people off the bench are. Additionally, our younger, less experienced players may see some time but their minutes will be shortened as we finish off the regular season. The TN game exposed us and it has to be a wake-up call or we are going to have a disappointing post-season.

Bone Dog is right...we need to patch up the holes and fix the areas in which TN was able to exploit us. We still have one big test left in the regular season. Our trip to South Carolina so late in the season is crucial to this team's confidence and psyche. We need to go down to South Carolina and perform well. A win would be ideal but if we don't get the win...we need to play well and be able to build off the performance. Getting blown away in South Carolina would not be at all productive to this team's post-season chances.

 

[HuskyNan]

As Alan Iverson would say "Practice?". Supposedly the team 'practiced' against the boys running the TN press and you saw how much that helped. We're about to play the 25th game and we need more reps to get better? The team is not going to get more athletic or tall or fast, it is what it is. And... the team by now has BB smarts, so it's a mind game now. Play how you were taught with toughness, confidence, perseverance and tenacity and get a positive mental attitude. I think we have had enough practice and training.

 

[cferraro04]

While I loved Alan Iveson's game I wouldn't prescribe to his work ethic when it came to practice nor would I quote him in that regard. Your observation that the girls practiced against boys who simulated the TN press was good until you asked how much it helped them while comparing their practice to Iveson's aversion towards practice. UConn's preparation for TN's press did help them a lot as they made the storied Tennessee press seem almost ineffective at times. Please don't get me wrong there were a few short minutes where UConn's focus waivered and the TN press was extremely effective but for the most part, UConn did a masterful job of handling TN's press.

I also think you misunderstand Bone Dog's comments. It is the final run-up to the post-season. Our rotation needs to be set, we don't need any more experimentation. Our coaching staff has seen enough this season to determine what our rotation will be. Our starters need to start playing starters minutes. I am talking about 29 to 35 minutes. When we get into the final three rounds we will need them on the floor. Our rotation should be down to about 8 maybe 9 players (given our depth), however, our coaching staff should know who the first 3 people off the bench are. Additionally, our younger, less experienced players may see some time but their minutes will be shortened as we finish off the regular season. The TN game exposed us and it has to be a wake-up call or we are going to have a disappointing post-season.

Bone Dog is right...we need to patch up the holes and fix the areas in which TN was able to exploit us. We still have one big test left in the regular season. Our trip to South Carolina so late in the season is crucial to this team's confidence and psyche. We need to go down to South Carolina and perform well. A win would be ideal but if we don't get the win...we need to play well and be able to build off the performance. Getting blown away in South Carolina would not be at all productive to this team's post-season chances.

Well, we are beginning to get there: "Our starters need to start playing starters minutes. I am talking about 29 to 35 minutes." "Our rotation should be down to about 8 maybe 9 players".


Minutes played:

Paige Bueckers - 27
Azzi Fudd - 25
Sarah Strong - 24
Jana El-Alfy - 20
Kaitlyn Chen - 18
KK Arnold - 28
Morgan Cheli - 23
Ashlynn Shade - 18

I think the final rotation will be:

Center - El-Alfy*, Ice Brady
Power Forward - Sarah Strong*, Morgan Cheli
Swing Guard / Forward - Paige Bueckers* Aubrey Griffin
Shooting Guard - Azzi Fudd* Ashlynn Shade
Point Guard - Kaitlyn Chen*, KK Arnold

Mop up minutes - Allie Ziebell, Qadence Samuels

*Starters