Game analysis - game 20 - UConn vs Georgetown

[cferraro04]

GENERAL COMMENTS:

I almost was not able to post this analysis since I am hosting our Annual Senior Master's Clinic and Testing at my dojang (school). I have master instructors from all over the world training all week and testing for rank advancement on Sunday. I was able to squeeze this post in during our dinner break.

Georgetown's RPI = 119, SOS = 124, and their NET Ranking = 73. UConn is at or near the top of WCBB in all three metrics. UConn's RPI = 1, SOS =5, and their NET Ranking = 1. Georgetown is 11-7 while UConn is one of two remaining undefeated teams at 19-0. Georgetown, while it is not a nationally top-ranked team, has shown a strong defensive presence; it has a ranking of 82.5, which puts Georgetown's defense around 67 nationally. UConn, on the other hand, UConn has recorded a 70.6 defensive rating, which is the best on record in CBB Analytics data going back to the 2018-19 season.

Georgetown averages 68.1 points per game while holding its opponents to 59.8. UConn averages an amazing 90.1 points per game and holds its opponents to only 51.4 points per game. Georgetown hits 6.3 three-pointers per game while UConn averages 9.3 three-pointers per game. Georgetown averages 9.6 steals and 13.3 assists per game. They turn the ball over 16.4 times per game while forcing their opponents into 18.6 turnovers per game. UConn averages 15.5 steals and an astounding 24.2 assists per game. They turn the ball over 13.0 times while forcing their opponents to turn the ball over 24.7 times per game.

At the end of the day, it is not likely that Georgetown will break UConn's win-streak. UConn will advance to 20-0.

PLAYER MATCH UPS:

Serah Williams, 6'4" - Senior Forward vs Brianna Scott, 6'4" Graduate Forward - Brianna averages 6.3 points, 4.2 rebounds, 1.1 assists, .4 steals, and .5 blcks per game. Serah averages 7.5 points, 5.0 rebounds, 1.7 assists, .7 steals, and 1.4 blocks per game. Both players average around 19 minutes of playing time. However, has earned her stats against tougher competition. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Sarah Strong, 6'2" - Sophomore Forward vs Chetanna Nweke, 6'0" - Graduate Forward - The advantage I can see with Chetanna is that she is an older, more experienced player than Sarah. With many other players, this age difference could make a difference, but it certainly won't in this match-up. Sarah plays well beyond her years. Chetanna averages 4.3 points, 3.3 rebounds, 1.3 assists, and .6 steals per game. Sarah is averaging a team-high 18.6 points, 8.3 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 3.6 steals, 1.7 blocks, and shoots the three-ball at 1.6 per game. There is just no way that Chetanna will be able to contain Sarah. I would look for Cristen Carter to come off the bench early in this one as the Georgetown coaching staff tries to do something to try and stop Sarah Strong. Both Chetanna and Cristen average between 18.5 and 19 minutes per game. I don't think Sarah plays much more than 20 minutes in this one. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Azzi Fudd, 5'11" - Graduate Guard vs Laila Jewett, 5'10" - Graduate Guard - Laila averages, 9.6 points, 1.8 rebounds, 3.2 assists, .9 steals, and 1.7 three-pointers per game. Azzi averages 17.3 points, 2.4 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 2.2 steals, .4 blocks, and 2.9 three-pointers per game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Ashlynn Shade, 5'10" - Junior Guard vs Destiny Agubata, 5'11" - Sophomore Guard - Destiny averages 8.1 points, 4.5 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1.3 steals, and .61 three-pointers per game. Ashlynn averages 7.2 points, 3.2 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 1.5 steals, and 1.4 three-pointers per game. These players are pretty evenly matched. Destiny's stats are slightly better than Ashlynn's, but given Ashlynn's defensive abilities and the overall team defense that Georgetown will face. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

KK Arnold, 5'9" - Junior Guard vs Khla Miller, 5'10" - Junior Guard - Khla is Georgetown's best offensive player. She averages 11.4 points, 3.4 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.4 steals, and .6 three-pointers per game. KK has been playing much better of late and is averaging 7.6 points, 2.1 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 2.8 steals, and .6 three-pointers per game. These players are statistically very close; however, KK has played against much stiffer competition, and Khla hasn't played against anyone like KK, nor has she faced a team defense anything like UConn. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

BENCH:

Georgetown will bring 31.4 points, 16.5 rebounds, and 4 three-pointers off the bench.
Victoria Rivera, 6'0" - Senior Guard - 9.4 points, 2.2 rebounds, 2.1 three-pointers
Cristen Carter, 6'4" - Junior Forward - 6'8 points, 5.8 rebounds, 1.2 assists, .5 steals, .5 blocks
Summer Davis, 5'10" - Sophomore Guard - 6.6 points, 3.0 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 1.7 steals, .7 three-pointers
Khadee Hession, 5'9" - Sophomore Guard - 5.6 points, 1.9 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 1.6 steals
Brianna Byars, 6'0" - Junior Forward - 3.4 points, 3.6 rebounds, 1.0 assists, .7 steals, .7 blocks

UConn will bring 35.7 points, 15.4 rebounds, and 2.9 three-pointers off the bench (this is if Jana plays).
Blanca Quinones, 6'2" - Freshman Forward - 10.6 points, 3.4 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 1.8 steals, .4 blocks, 1.1 three-pointers
Kayleigh Heckel, 5'9" - Sophomore Guard - 7.1 points, 2.4 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1.5 steals, .5 three-pointers
Allie Zeibell, 6'0" - Sophomore Guard - 5.9 points, 1.4 rebounds, 1.1 assists, .9 steals, .4 blocks, 1.3 three-pointers
Jana El-Alfy, 6'5" - Redshirt Sophomore Center - 4.9 points, 3.7 rebounds, .9 assists, .3 blocks
Kelis Fisher, 5'9" - Freshman Guard - 2.9 points, .7 rebounds, .7 assists
Ayanna Patterson, 6'2" - Redshirt Sophomore Forward - 2.1 points, 1.2 rebounds
Caroline Ducharme, 6'2" - Redshirt Senior - 2.0 points, 2.6 rebounds, 1.2 assists
With Jana playing - ADVANTAGE - UCONN
Without Jana Playing - ADVANTAGE - GEORGETOWN

COACHING:

Georgetown's coaches cannot at the end of the day be considered a match for the UConn coaching staff. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

INTANGIBLES:

UConn is too talented, better coached, they have the wind at their backs, and will win this one going away. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

SCORE:

UCONN - 94
Georgetown - 52
MOV - 42

 

[JoePgh]

This all seems quite plausible, including the margin of victory. I was totally surprised by UConn's MOV against Notre Dame.

My only quibble: Does Jana's presence or absence really swing the evaluation of the bench contribution from UConn to Georgetown if she doesn't play? Even if she plays, in her first game back, I doubt that her minutes or statistical contribution will be significant. She may offer some rebounds (in the best case), but certainly no 3-pointers, and I doubt that her scoring contribution will amount to much.

 

[cferraro04]

This all seems quite plausible, including the margin of victory. I was totally surprised by UConn's MOV against Notre Dame.

My only quibble: Does Jana's presence or absence really swing the evaluation of the bench contribution from UConn to Georgetown if she doesn't play? Even if she plays, in her first game back, I doubt that her minutes or statistical contribution will be significant. She may offer some rebounds (in the best case), but certainly no 3-pointers, and I doubt that her scoring contribution will amount to much.

You are probably right, JoePgh, but come on, I had to give Georgetown something, as it was a complete statistical sweep, and I really want to get Jana back...I think we will need her in the postseason in case Serah gets into foul trouble.

 

[YKCornelius]

BENCH:

Georgetown will bring 31.4 points, 16.5 rebounds, and 4 three-pointers off the bench.
Victoria Rivera, 6'0" - Senior Guard - 9.4 points, 2.2 rebounds, 2.1 three-pointers
Cristen Carter, 6'4" - Junior Forward - 6'8 points, 5.8 rebounds, 1.2 assists, .5 steals, .5 blocks
Summer Davis, 5'10" - Sophomore Guard - 6.6 points, 3.0 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 1.7 steals, .7 three-pointers
Khadee Hession, 5'9" - Sophomore Guard - 5.6 points, 1.9 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 1.6 steals
Brianna Byars, 6'0" - Junior Forward - 3.4 points, 3.6 rebounds, 1.0 assists, .7 steals, .7 blocks

UConn will bring 35.7 points, 15.4 rebounds, and 2.9 three-pointers off the bench (this is if Jana plays).
Blanca Quinones, 6'2" - Freshman Forward - 10.6 points, 3.4 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 1.8 steals, .4 blocks, 1.1 three-pointers
Kayleigh Heckel, 5'9" - Sophomore Guard - 7.1 points, 2.4 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1.5 steals, .5 three-pointers
Allie Zeibell, 6'0" - Sophomore Guard - 5.9 points, 1.4 rebounds, 1.1 assists, .9 steals, .4 blocks, 1.3 three-pointers
Jana El-Alfy, 6'5" - Redshirt Sophomore Center - 4.9 points, 3.7 rebounds, .9 assists, .3 blocks
Kelis Fisher, 5'9" - Freshman Guard - 2.9 points, .7 rebounds, .7 assists
Ayanna Patterson, 6'2" - Redshirt Sophomore Forward - 2.1 points, 1.2 rebounds
Caroline Ducharme, 6'2" - Redshirt Senior - 2.0 points, 2.6 rebounds, 1.2 assists
With Jana playing - ADVANTAGE - UCONN
Without Jana Playing - ADVANTAGE - GEORGETOWN

Sensei, thanks for the analysis. Good stuff.

Regarding the Hoya bench, neither of the Davis twins have played since the January 4th game against Xavier. Very odd, especially since Summer was in the rotation in all previous games averaging almost 20 mpg. Don't know what the story is, but I wouldn't count on them playing in tomorrow's game.

Ditto for Victoria Rivera. She started the first nine games of the season, but has been sidelined since mid-December.

Bottom line: from my perch, sans these three players, the Hoya bench is considerably weaker than the Huskies' bench.

 

[RSHERMVIKES]

Once again sensei you wet my whistle for game time to see if players perform to their norm!
IMHO UConn's superior defense changes all the oppositions potential! Very few, if any, opponents can play to their averages vs these "hungry" Huskies!

 

[Bone Dog]

Sensei, thanks for the analysis. Good stuff.

Regarding the Hoya bench, neither of the Davis twins have played since the January 4th game against Xavier. Very odd, especially since Summer was in the rotation in all previous games averaging almost 20 mpg. Don't know what the story is, but I wouldn't count on them playing in tomorrow's game.

Ditto for Victoria Rivera. She started the first nine games of the season, but has been sidelined since mid-December.

Bottom line: from my perch, sans these three players, the Hoya bench is considerably weaker than the Huskies' bench.

If you're right that the bench is reduced from injury, that doesn't bode well for the Hoyas. But the key player looks to be healthy, namely Hession. She seems to be a spark coming off the bench, though her shooting and scoring numbers are down from last season.

I'm impressed by how many juniors seniors and grads they have in the lineup. After this season, the Hoyas could look very different.

 

[freshler40]

Thanks for the fine analysis.
The maturity of the Huskies is glowing bright red. This team is jelling like few others. We have great speed, positioning, switching, size and improved ball handling. This was excepted by a few issues showing up against ND early in that game. The 9 early turnovers were the exception and perhaps jitters of a "Big Game". The second half corrected that problem and gave our key players more playing time that teams in the Big East don't present.

ND reverted to a somewhat slower pace. The great point and proof are that we can play many styles of basketball, not many teams can do that as Georgetown will find out. We dictate pace through defense.

 

[meyers7]

Yeah, it's another BE team. A mid table one at that. These BE games are pretty much gonna be all the same this year.

 

[Next 12]

Thank you for your always fine analysis. My thoughts are.........Ho Hum , one more step to NO13. After this game, 10 more games to the NCAA tournament and 6 more games to NC13. GO HUSKIES!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Sun Dog]

Unfortunate that save for the Tenn game, UCONN ‘s toughest remaining regular season games are probably in practice sessions. I hope I’m wrong, but not much evidence to think any BE games will not be blowouts. Keeping the competitive edge will be the coaches and team leaders challenge as we approach March.

 

[Urshurak]

Yeah, playing some of these middling Big East Teams feels like deja-Vu. We're just doped white mice in a college lab, and we'll all be lonely tonight and lonely tomorrow..... (DelAmitri - Great band!)

 

[Bone Dog]

Hey guys, what's with all the negativity? We flew all the way across the country just to see this game in person. Don't ruin it for us.

Okay, we're also here to visit our daughter, but... whatever. I couldn't pass up any chance to see the Huskies in person, even in this likely blowout. I'll even be thrilled to cheer on Ayanna and Carol and Jana and Gup-gup and anyone else who makes it onto the floor in the 4th quarter!

 

[MSGRET]

Thank you for your always fine analysis. My thoughts are.........Ho Hum , one more step to NO13. After this game, 10 more games to the NCAA tournament and 6 more games to NC13. GO HUSKIES!!!!!!!!!!!!

You're forgetting the 3 games in the Big East Tournament, then the NCAA Tournament. So it's 13 more games before the NCAA Tournament.

 

[Next 12]

You're forgetting the 3 games in the Big East Tournament, then the NCAA Tournament. So it's 13 more games before the NCAA Tournament.

Thank you, I did forget those games. Never the less, we will be undefeated and have NO13. GO HUSKIES!!!!!!

 

[Ozimoto]

I personally enjoy the "blowouts" as well as for me it's about how the team plays the game, not how much they score.

 

[Tonyc]

I luv when UConn blows teams out. This game could be over early too. The starters shouldnt see alot of minutes and I feel the bench will get more playtime then in other games. I would like to see everybody else continue to improve. Serah around the basket is looking better. Kayleigh and KK hitting their outside shots and penetrating. Allie knocks down more shots. Allie may not be a quick as some of her teammates but she can do everything really well. Blanca just needs to continue to get better, shes got all the tools and her future is scary good.

UConn got off to a slow start against ND and then caught fire. Thats what they do. The execute their stuff and catch fire. I think the only question for opponents is how do you keep UConn from scoring? Because you know UConn will make it very hard for you to score and you won't score much.

 

[Bone Dog]

A sign of the times: we were visiting the National Gallery of Art earlier this afternoon when I noticed a fellow wearing a Fudd Around And Find Out t-shirt. Our eyes met in front of a Gainsborough painting and I blurted out "Are you going to the game?" He pointed to his shirt, as if I hadn't already noticed it, and said "Well, I am a fan." I replied, "Who isn't?"

 

[Sun Dog]

Bone Dog, I’d never want to ruin your chance to see the Huskies in person, and your daughter. Have a great time. However, I can’t recant my concern over the non competitiveness of the BE as prep for March.
Cheers

 

[darkstar1]

Thanks for the great analysis, as always. I know you wanted to give the Hoyas something, but if the bench was just Blanca and Kayleigh, I would still give UConn the advantage. If the game is over early and he sits most of the starters and these 2, yiu may be right in the fourth 1/4.

 

[huskyd]

This all seems quite plausible, including the margin of victory. I was totally surprised by UConn's MOV against Notre Dame.

My only quibble: Does Jana's presence or absence really swing the evaluation of the bench contribution from UConn to Georgetown if she doesn't play? Even if she plays, in her first game back, I doubt that her minutes or statistical contribution will be significant. She may offer some rebounds (in the best case), but certainly no 3-pointers, and I doubt that her scoring contribution will amount to much.

Georgetown's ascendent bench reinforces my argument that the most competitive contests UConn could play is our subs vs. theirs.
How about it? We'll even agree to leave Jana on the bench.
And what's a "Hoya"? OK. It's from Hoya Saxa (a cheer that means "What Rocks!") Answer: nothing, really.

 

[David54]

I’m expecting Azzi to have a big game. She’s home for the last time and she’s due. Hey there’s a not so far fetched chance that Sarah and azzi both finish as 50 40 90 players.
Sarah is there now and azzi just off at 49.+ on fg%.

 

[YKCornelius]

Here’s some additional thoughts pertaining to tonight’s game against the Hoyas. They are my surmisings after taking a hard look at Georgetown’s performance this season, with a concerted focus on the last eleven games and a deeper dive into the play-by-play accounts.

Bottom line up front: it appears to me that something significant occurred following their blowout loss to Seton Hall on New Year’s Eve. Perhaps a come-to-Jesus intervention between the coaches and the players? A collective consensus New Year’s resolution? Speculation aside, that game seems to be an inflection point on the Hoyas game execution this season.

Prior to that debacle, the season’s outlook for Georgetown – and the challenge for the coaching staff heading into conference play - was not different than other Big East programs: dealing with the growing pains associated with integrating a small handful of returning players with a half-dozen portal transfers. To be blunt, the Hoyas were in search of an identity and struggling to come together as a team.

Things got worse when their three-year starter, Victoria Rivera, went down in mid-December, and then hit rock bottom with an embarrassing performance at Seton Hall (24% FG, 22% 3P, 38% FT, and 7 assists vs 22 TOs).

But since then the Hoyas seem to have changed their game plan. They began slowing the game down considerably and started milking the shot clock on their possessions. It was a tactic that worked against Wake Forest in early December, and one that the team has seemingly embraced in the five games they played in January.

In these last five games, the Hoyas are averaging approximately 67 possessions per game. In their previous six games in December, they were averaging around 79 – a decrease of a dozen possessions per game. That is not an insignificant decrease. A look at the play-by-play accounts, one can see that they now like to work the shot clock down on most possessions.

The results of their change in tempo: two nail-biter losses (albeit against weaker teams) and three decisive wins, with the last two vs 15-5 St John’s, and at 11-7 Marquette.

Based on these recent “successes”, I am expecting Georgetown to continue that trend against UConn, and try to slow the game down via deliberate shot clock management. I think this will limit the number of possessions both teams will end up having, and thus bring the final score closer to Massey’s prediction.

I don’t think the Hoyas can keep the score close, much less win the game. I am predicting a margin of victory north of 30 points like everyone else outside Foggy Bottom. However, I do believe this will be the first time UConn will be dealing with a deliberately slower pace this season, and thus it will be insightful to see how the players respond. Will anyone’s rhythm be disrupted?

I’m looking forward to the game tonight. Go Huskies!

 

[NycUcWbbFan]

Live Stats &1:

• 1/22/2026: UConn at Georgetown

&1 Live Stats for yet-to-be-played games are available via this schedule.

• The link is removed for played games.
• The schedule links are useful as to when pre-published links don’t work (as the case was for MI and Utah) as the game is in-progress.